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Judging by the survey results
sent after the conclusion of the 2003 season, we know a vast
majority of our subscribers enjoyed another highly competitive
season! Results are the bottom line and many of our
subscribers reaped the rewards of these results from Fantistics
in 2003. In total 68% of the respondents placed in the
top 3 within their league!
While other fantasy services
may be boasting of the number of fantasy "experts" on staff.....that
doesn't necessarily translate to success. What this really means is
their consensus projections will mirror what the rest of the fantasy
community thinks.... which in a sense means that the final results
will be "average".
At Fantistics there is
only one statistician who produces the draft day projections
(Anthony A. Perri), maintaining the forecasting though-out the
preseason on a daily basis, and most importantly standing by the
results at season's end. Now in our 6th season serving
knowledgeable fantasy enthusiasts, we continue to produce a
product that is distinguishable from the rest of the field. This is
not to say that we don't also have a great supporting cast, but the
principles that constitute the forecasting model and the drafting
model (VAM) are unabated. Using time and again tested formulas of
forecasting athletic performance, we continue to produce some of the
most compelling results in the sports community...at least results
that anyone is willing to publish.
One of the ways we measure
success is comparing what direction a player's performance
took during the forecasting season. We could sit here and tell
you that we predicted exactly how many TDs Kevan Barlow would
score in 2003, but in essence projecting any number exactly is pure
luck. On the other hand, predicting that
Drew Bledsoe's production would diminish in 2003 verses
his prior season....was not. Sure we considered his age, supporting
cast, his career indicators, the system, and durability
factors...but the key element that lead us to his downward
projection was the downgrade in the schedule that he would be
facing. Looking in from last preseason, our analysis indicated that
Bledsoe was expected to face one of the tougher passing defenses in
2003...and true to expectation, he did struggle in these games. The
prior season, Bledsoe's weekly match up opponent's rated an B+ in
difficulty, while we projected that he would be facing a much
tougher opposition (F) in 2003. We did our homework on
recovering players like Jamal Lewis, while the rest of the
fantasy community ranked him at 12th among the top RBs (in
comparison to the expert consensus out of the 2003 edition of
Fantasy Football Index) , we ranked him 8th...a projection that came
to fruition as Lewis was the 4th best RB in 2003. Similarly we
ranked Edgerrin James as the 8th best RB, when the consensus
was 11th (James was the 8th best RB in 2003).
Above are just a few examples,
below is an overall roundup of the 2003 forecasting season which is
typical of the forecasting success that we have achieved since our
inception. Our starting point in this analysis is the top position
players from the previous season.
As we have written in prior
articles, the QB, RB, WR, & TE positions are the most
predictable from a statisticians toolbox. While the place kickers
are a little more than a guessing game and a major reason why they
appear so low on the VAM rankings.
Positions
which have a high correlation historically with our projections
Quarterbacks: 22 out of
the top 30 = 73% correct
Running Backs:24 out of
top 30 = 80% correct
Wide Receivers: 30 out
of top 40 = 76% correct
Tight Ends: 18 out of
top 25 = 72% correct
Positions
which DO NOT have a high correlation historically with our
projections
Place Kickers:
19 out of the top 30 = 62% correct
The analysis (see link
below) measures fantasy points per game for the assigned period. It
assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards
rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for
rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD)
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