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The analysis below
measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The
focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting
whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than
the previous year. It
assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards
rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for
rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per
Game as it doesn't penalize us for injuries which would be out of a
prognosticator's control.
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A Look back
at the 2006 Quarterback Projections -
80 % Success
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2006 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Palmer,C |
19.1 |
18.0 |
DOWN |
18.2 |
DOWN |
 |
|
Brady,T |
18.5 |
17.0 |
DOWN |
16.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Manning,P |
17.8 |
19.6 |
UP |
22.1 |
UP |
|
|
Hasselbeck,M |
22.4 |
17.0 |
DOWN |
14.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Manning,E |
16.5 |
15.7 |
DOWN |
14.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bledsoe,D |
42.8 |
16.2 |
DOWN |
14.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Green,T |
32.1 |
16.4 |
DOWN |
10.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brees,D |
16.0 |
14.0 |
DOWN |
19.1 |
UP |
 |
|
Collins,K |
63.5 |
8.8 |
DOWN |
4.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Plummer,J |
15.8 |
16.2 |
UP |
8.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Vick,M |
15.6 |
15.2 |
DOWN |
18.4 |
UP |
|
|
Delhomme,J |
18.8 |
14.5 |
DOWN |
14.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brunell,M |
23.6 |
13.0 |
DOWN |
11.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Favre,B |
13.9 |
14.9 |
UP |
14.9 |
UP |
|
|
McNair,S |
13.8 |
15.6 |
UP |
13.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brooks,A |
25.3 |
14.1 |
DOWN |
8.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Carr,D |
12.2 |
14.5 |
UP |
11.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Roethlisberger,B |
12.9 |
14.1 |
UP |
14.9 |
UP |
|
|
McNabb,D |
18.3 |
16.7 |
DOWN |
23.2 |
UP |
|
|
Leftwich,B |
29.2 |
14.0 |
DOWN |
15.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Warner,K |
23.4 |
16.2 |
DOWN |
11.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bulger,M |
9.7 |
16.7 |
UP |
18.7 |
UP |
|
|
Johnson,B |
9.3 |
12.1 |
UP |
10.5 |
UP |
|
|
Harrington,J |
12.1 |
3.3 |
DOWN |
12.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Simms,C |
43.7 |
12.1 |
DOWN |
8.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Boller,K |
24.6 |
3.8 |
DOWN |
8.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
McCown,J |
40.0 |
4.5 |
DOWN |
0.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bollinger,B |
53.5 |
2.0 |
DOWN |
2.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Garrard,D |
9.5 |
6.0 |
DOWN |
8.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Culpepper,D |
24.8 |
16.8 |
DOWN |
14.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Losman,J |
6.1 |
11.1 |
UP |
13.8 |
UP |
|
|
Griese,B |
12.0 |
9.8 |
DOWN |
1.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Martin,J |
4.4 |
2.2 |
DOWN |
0.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Frye,C |
4.6 |
11.9 |
UP |
10.5 |
UP |
|
|
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|
A Look back
at the 2006 RunningBack Projections -
84 % Success
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2006 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Alexander,S |
36.4 |
20.5 |
DOWN |
13.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,L |
20.9 |
22.5 |
UP |
20.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Barber,T |
19.1 |
17.1 |
DOWN |
15.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Tomlinson,L |
18.9 |
19.7 |
UP |
26.7 |
UP |
|
|
James,E |
16.8 |
14.5 |
DOWN |
10.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Portis,C |
29.9 |
12.2 |
DOWN |
13.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,R |
14.2 |
14.3 |
UP |
13.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jordan,L |
22.5 |
12.6 |
DOWN |
6.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jones,T |
12.6 |
9.3 |
DOWN |
10.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Anderson,M |
13.4 |
5.1 |
DOWN |
2.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jackson,S |
12.3 |
14.6 |
UP |
20.6 |
UP |
|
|
Dunn,W |
11.8 |
12.2 |
UP |
10.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
McGahee,W |
12.4 |
12.0 |
DOWN |
10.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Parker,W |
10.8 |
12.6 |
UP |
16.7 |
UP |
|
|
Droughns,R |
12.3 |
11.3 |
DOWN |
8.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Dillon,C |
10.6 |
11.9 |
UP |
10.9 |
UP |
|
|
Westbrook,B |
11.0 |
12.1 |
UP |
17.2 |
UP |
|
|
Williams,C |
11.6 |
13.9 |
UP |
7.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brown,C |
32.0 |
8.2 |
DOWN |
3.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jones,J |
9.4 |
10.3 |
UP |
9.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bell,T |
11.6 |
9.1 |
DOWN |
7.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brown,R |
11.1 |
13.4 |
UP |
12.2 |
UP |
|
|
Foster,D |
10.2 |
11.2 |
UP |
8.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Lewis,J |
8.4 |
11.5 |
UP |
11.2 |
UP |
|
|
Davis,S |
8.8 |
4.0 |
DOWN |
2.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Moore,M |
7.4 |
4.9 |
DOWN |
4.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gado,S |
12.0 |
5.4 |
DOWN |
3.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jones,K |
8.9 |
11.6 |
UP |
14.1 |
UP |
|
|
Taylor,F |
7.0 |
9.1 |
UP |
11.7 |
UP |
|
|
Barlow,K |
8.3 |
8.3 |
DOWN |
6.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Barber,M |
5.9 |
8.3 |
UP |
11.3 |
UP |
|
|
Gore,F |
5.8 |
11.9 |
UP |
17.0 |
UP |
|
|
Duckett,T |
8.4 |
7.1 |
DOWN |
2.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bennett,M |
8.2 |
3.5 |
DOWN |
2.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Pittman,M |
5.4 |
4.2 |
DOWN |
4.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Taylor,C |
5.6 |
11.3 |
UP |
12.4 |
UP |
|
|
Perry,C |
12.2 |
4.9 |
DOWN |
1.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Alstott,M |
4.5 |
4.7 |
UP |
2.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Pinner,A |
5.9 |
3.3 |
DOWN |
3.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Shipp,M |
4.7 |
3.1 |
DOWN |
2.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bryson,S |
10.8 |
5.0 |
DOWN |
2.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Pass,P |
21.7 |
2.7 |
DOWN |
1.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Stecker,A |
5.3 |
2.1 |
DOWN |
1.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Fisher,T |
8.0 |
3.2 |
DOWN |
2.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
McAllister,D |
4.2 |
9.9 |
UP |
12.4 |
UP |
|
|
Arrington,J |
3.9 |
3.1 |
DOWN |
0.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Haynes,V |
8.1 |
2.3 |
DOWN |
2.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Peterson,A |
3.5 |
3.9 |
UP |
1.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Sellers,M |
3.4 |
2.8 |
DOWN |
1.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Betts,L |
3.4 |
4.5 |
UP |
11.9 |
UP |
|
|
A Look back
at the 2006 Wide Receiver Projections -
77 % Success
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2006 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Smith,S |
16.9 |
12.0 |
DOWN |
12.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Fitzgerald,L |
15.8 |
12.6 |
DOWN |
8.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Moss,S |
14.4 |
11.3 |
DOWN |
8.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,C |
12.6 |
13.1 |
UP |
11.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Galloway,J |
11.8 |
9.8 |
DOWN |
9.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Harrison,M |
11.7 |
12.4 |
UP |
13.0 |
UP |
|
|
Holt,T |
11.7 |
12.5 |
UP |
11.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Boldin,A |
11.7 |
11.9 |
UP |
9.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Chambers,C |
11.7 |
11.4 |
DOWN |
6.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Ward,H |
11.8 |
10.5 |
DOWN |
9.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Burress,P |
10.9 |
9.7 |
DOWN |
10.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Glenn,T |
10.1 |
9.3 |
DOWN |
8.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Driver,D |
9.6 |
9.9 |
UP |
11.2 |
UP |
|
|
Houshmandzadeh,T |
10.7 |
9.9 |
DOWN |
11.6 |
UP |
|
|
Moss,R |
11.5 |
11.4 |
DOWN |
5.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Smith,R |
9.2 |
8.6 |
DOWN |
4.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
McCardell,K |
10.4 |
7.8 |
DOWN |
3.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Kennison,E |
9.1 |
8.5 |
DOWN |
7.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Stallworth,D |
11.4 |
8.5 |
DOWN |
8.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Wayne,R |
8.5 |
9.8 |
UP |
11.6 |
UP |
|
|
Branch,D |
9.3 |
4.0 |
DOWN |
7.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jurevicius,J |
9.9 |
6.0 |
DOWN |
5.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bryant,A |
8.9 |
9.3 |
UP |
6.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Mason,D |
7.8 |
10.0 |
UP |
5.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Curtis,K |
7.7 |
6.5 |
DOWN |
4.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Porter,J |
30.8 |
6.8 |
DOWN |
0.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,K |
7.5 |
6.9 |
DOWN |
6.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Evans,L |
7.5 |
9.3 |
UP |
11.1 |
UP |
|
|
Williams,R |
7.3 |
10.2 |
UP |
10.8 |
UP |
|
|
Coles,L |
7.2 |
8.5 |
UP |
9.2 |
UP |
|
|
Owens,T |
7.1 |
12.1 |
UP |
12.3 |
UP |
|
|
Wilford,E |
6.9 |
8.7 |
UP |
4.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Toomer,A |
13.8 |
8.8 |
DOWN |
6.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Moulds,E |
6.6 |
7.6 |
UP |
3.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Lloyd,B |
6.9 |
8.9 |
UP |
2.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Muhammad,M |
6.2 |
9.2 |
UP |
7.3 |
UP |
|
|
Bennett,D |
6.1 |
7.9 |
UP |
5.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Parker,E |
6.4 |
5.3 |
DOWN |
4.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Engram,B |
13.7 |
5.8 |
DOWN |
5.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Lelie,A |
6.1 |
5.6 |
DOWN |
3.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Booker,M |
6.2 |
6.6 |
UP |
8.0 |
UP |
|
|
Givens,D |
17.4 |
6.7 |
DOWN |
2.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Taylor,T |
5.3 |
5.8 |
UP |
5.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
McCareins,J |
5.3 |
3.1 |
DOWN |
2.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,A |
5.1 |
10.8 |
UP |
9.1 |
UP |
|
|
Brown,R |
5.1 |
8.7 |
UP |
8.6 |
UP |
|
|
Robinson,M |
8.2 |
5.8 |
DOWN |
6.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Chatman,A |
27.3 |
3.5 |
DOWN |
0.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Henry,C |
6.0 |
5.6 |
DOWN |
8.8 |
UP |
|
|
Jones,M |
5.6 |
6.9 |
UP |
6.2 |
UP |
|
|
Gabriel,D |
4.9 |
7.3 |
UP |
4.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bradford,C |
8.1 |
5.4 |
DOWN |
1.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bruce,I |
4.4 |
7.1 |
UP |
8.0 |
UP |
|
|
Horn,J |
7.1 |
9.4 |
UP |
9.2 |
UP |
|
|
Parker,S |
4.4 |
5.6 |
UP |
3.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Edwards,B |
4.3 |
8.4 |
UP |
7.8 |
UP |
|
|
Jenkins,M |
4.3 |
5.5 |
UP |
5.4 |
UP |
|
|
Randle,A |
4.3 |
4.4 |
UP |
4.6 |
UP |
|
|
Clayton,M |
4.3 |
7.2 |
UP |
7.6 |
UP |
|
|
Jackson,D |
5.2 |
10.0 |
UP |
9.7 |
UP |
|
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A Look back at the 2006 Tight End Projections
- 70% Success
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2006 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Gates,A |
10.6 |
10.4 |
DOWN |
9.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Shockey,J |
8.7 |
7.6 |
DOWN |
7.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Heap,T |
8.0 |
8.4 |
UP |
7.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Cooley,C |
7.4 |
6.4 |
DOWN |
6.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Crumpler,A |
7.4 |
7.8 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Witten,J |
7.0 |
7.5 |
UP |
5.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gonzalez,T |
6.9 |
8.8 |
UP |
8.0 |
UP |
|
|
McMichael,R |
5.5 |
6.5 |
UP |
5.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Smith,L |
5.4 |
5.6 |
UP |
5.7 |
UP |
|
|
Stevens,J |
7.7 |
3.5 |
DOWN |
4.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Miller,H |
5.1 |
5.7 |
UP |
4.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Troupe,B |
7.7 |
4.6 |
DOWN |
2.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Clark,D |
6.1 |
5.1 |
DOWN |
5.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Pollard,M |
4.6 |
3.0 |
DOWN |
0.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Watson,B |
5.2 |
5.4 |
UP |
6.3 |
UP |
|
|
Wiggins,J |
3.9 |
4.0 |
UP |
2.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Heiden,S |
3.6 |
2.9 |
DOWN |
2.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Smith,A |
3.5 |
4.6 |
UP |
3.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Anderson,C |
3.0 |
4.0 |
UP |
2.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Putzier,J |
3.4 |
2.9 |
DOWN |
0.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Graham,D |
3.5 |
3.4 |
DOWN |
3.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Lee,D |
2.7 |
1.7 |
DOWN |
1.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Martin,D |
3.6 |
2.3 |
DOWN |
2.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Scaife,B |
2.8 |
2.7 |
DOWN |
4.0 |
UP |
|
|
Fletcher,B |
2.5 |
1.7 |
DOWN |
2.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Clark,D |
2.2 |
3.4 |
UP |
6.2 |
UP |
|
|
Baker,C |
2.1 |
2.8 |
UP |
3.4 |
UP |
|
|
Bergen,A |
2.4 |
2.5 |
UP |
1.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Mangum,K |
2.3 |
2.2 |
DOWN |
1.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gaines,M |
1.8 |
1.5 |
DOWN |
0.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Franks,B |
1.7 |
4.1 |
UP |
1.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Schobel,M |
1.6 |
2.3 |
UP |
2.1 |
UP |
|
|
Wrighster,G |
1.5 |
1.4 |
DOWN |
3.3 |
UP |
|
|
Alexander,S |
1.4 |
2.0 |
UP |
1.8 |
UP |
|
|
Conwell,E |
3.2 |
3.4 |
UP |
1.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brady,K |
1.4 |
1.9 |
UP |
0.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Wilcox,D |
1.5 |
2.5 |
UP |
2.5 |
UP |
|
|
Royal,R |
1.2 |
1.7 |
UP |
2.5 |
UP |
|
|
Manumaleuna,B |
1.2 |
2.0 |
UP |
1.7 |
UP |
|
|
Utecht,B |
1.2 |
1.2 |
UP |
2.5 |
UP |
|
|
|
A Look back
at the 2006 Place Kickers Projections -
80 % Success
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2006 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Rackers,N. |
10.3 |
9.4 |
DOWN |
8.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Feely,J. |
10.1 |
9.0 |
DOWN |
8.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Graham,S. |
8.6 |
9.2 |
UP |
8.7 |
UP |
|
|
Wilkins,J. |
8.4 |
8.5 |
UP |
82.5 |
UP |
|
|
Tynes,L. |
8.3 |
8.8 |
UP |
8.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Kasay,J. |
8.3 |
8.3 |
DOWN |
8.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Vanderjagt,M. |
11.6 |
7.5 |
DOWN |
8.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Elam,J. |
7.9 |
8.9 |
UP |
13.9 |
UP |
|
|
Lindell,R. |
7.9 |
8.3 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Stover,M. |
7.8 |
8.8 |
UP |
9.0 |
UP |
|
|
Brown,J. |
7.8 |
8.3 |
UP |
8.5 |
UP |
|
|
Reed,J. |
7.7 |
8.1 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Kaeding,N. |
7.5 |
7.3 |
DOWN |
10.2 |
UP |
|
|
Scobee,J. |
7.3 |
8.0 |
UP |
14.0 |
UP |
|
|
Mare,O. |
7.3 |
7.8 |
UP |
42.0 |
UP |
|
|
Nedney,J. |
6.9 |
7.0 |
UP |
8.8 |
UP |
|
|
Bironas,R. |
6.8 |
7.0 |
UP |
7.2 |
UP |
|
|
Brown,K. |
6.8 |
7.6 |
UP |
6.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bryant,M. |
6.6 |
7.3 |
UP |
5.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Carney,J. |
6.6 |
7.4 |
UP |
44.7 |
UP |
|
|
Dawson,P. |
6.6 |
7.8 |
UP |
8.5 |
UP |
|
|
Vinatieri,A. |
6.5 |
8.1 |
UP |
8.9 |
UP |
|
|
Longwell,R. |
6.3 |
8.2 |
UP |
10.6 |
UP |
|
|
Nugent,M. |
6.1 |
7.9 |
UP |
8.0 |
UP |
|
|
Janikowski,S. |
6.1 |
7.6 |
UP |
5.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Hanson,J. |
5.8 |
7.3 |
UP |
10.2 |
UP |
|
|
Gould,R. |
5.3 |
36.8 |
UP |
15.1 |
UP |
|
|
Akers,D. |
4.9 |
7.2 |
UP |
9.0 |
UP |
|
|
Hall,J. |
13.6 |
6.2 |
DOWN |
4.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Suisham,S. |
1.9 |
1.1 |
DOWN |
4.3 |
UP |
|
|
|
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Features Included in the 2007 Fantasy
Football Package
-
Fantasy Pro: Draft Prep Software - Detailed projections
on over 800 players, including defensive players, allowing you to
produce customized ranking/fantasy values based on your league rules.
-
VAM Draft Strategy - Drafting order based on the scarcity of each
position and the probability of predictability
-
Preseason Projection Notes - Not just the news, but relevant fantasy
projection changes
-
Position Battles/ Sleepers - knowing who the winners will be
-
Inside the Numbers Series - Which position players face the most difficult or
friendly schedule ahead
-
Historical Fantasy Databases - Which players are the most
consistent
year after year
-
Weekly Pickup Recommendations - which players are the ones to pickup
-
Injury News and analysis reports emails - Fantasy recommendations to
the daily news
-
Opposition Match up Matrix Database- Weekly plays and trading
reference tool
-
Weekly Player Rankings/Projections for your Team - Critical
Start/Bench decisions based on our successful weekly forecasting
-
Trending Player Analysis
-
Red Zone and Targeted Passes Databases - Spot the trends
-
Sunday Morning Scoop - Last minute activation /
deactivation alerts
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Anthony
A. Perri is the founder and the resident "Stats
Nerd" at Fantistics. Anthony has a graduate level Math
education. His experience
includes working as a Quantitative Analyst for several
Wall Street firms developing statistical models before
venturing out into Fantasy Sports in the late 1990s. His decade long involvement
in Fantasy Sports includes accolades from some of the top
publications in the country as well as continual guest appearances
on Sports Radio. Anthony is the designer of the
Fantistics Projections Model & the VAM drafting strategy
models.
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