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Positions which have a high correlation historically with our projections

Quarterbacks: 21 out of the top 30 = 70% correct

Running Backs:23 out of top 30 = 77% correct

Wide Receivers: 54 out of top 72 = 75% correct

Tight Ends: 23 out of top 30 = 77% correct

Place Kickers: 17 out of the top 30 = 57% correct

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the assigned period. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) 

A Look back at the 2002 RunningBack Projections - 77 % Success
  2001 2002 2002 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Faulk,M 24.3 22.2 14.9
Holmes,P 17.3 14.0 26.6
Green,A 16.5 16.7 15.5
Alexander,S 16.4 15.8 17.0
Martin,C 15.5 15.0 11.7
Dillon,C 14.5 12.9 12.7
Tomlinson,L 13.8 14.7 19.2
Williams,R 13.6 15.1 20.2
Smith,A 13.3 11.7 10.7
Davis,S 12.1 12.2 12.0
Hearst,G 11.6 11.1 11.4
Thomas,A 12.7 14.1 10.4
Barber,T 12.0 12.8 16.5
Smith,L 10.5 10.9 12.0
Mack,S 10.3 6.5 7.0
Garner,C 10.0 11.5 16.0
Alstott,M 9.8 9.2 7.6
George,E 9.5 13.0 14.1
Staley,D 11.3 12.7 12.8
Bettis,J 12.9 8.7 10.5
Pittman,M 9.4 10.6 7.8
Dunn,W 10.5 10.6 12.3
Smith,E 9.4 10.2 8.5
White,J 7.6 8.6 7.9
Dayne,R 7.4 6.7 4.1
Henry,T 8.8 9.3 16.2
Bennett,M 8.4 9.6 12.5
Barlow,K 7.1 8.3 7.9
Stewart,J 9.5 11.1 12.2
James,E 17.3 13.0 10.9

 
A Look back at the 2002 Quarterback Projections - 70 % Success
  2001 2002 2002 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Warner,K 24.5 22.0 9.3
Garcia,J 22.5 20.2 17.8
Manning,P 21.9 20.8 19.2
Brooks,A 21.1 18.3 18.4
Favre,B 21.0 18.7 16.6
Gannon,R 20.9 19.3 22.0
McNair,S 21.5 18.6 18.1
McNabb,D 21.5 20.2 25.2
Fiedler,J 18.8 16.4 15.2
Stewart,K 18.4 16.3 14.4
Green,T 17.1 16.4 18.2
Collins,K 17.0 14.8 15.7
Plummer,J 16.9 15.9 13.8
Brunell,M 18.0 13.8 14.3
Flutie,D 16.2 6.9 3.8
Culpepper,D 23.5 20.4 21.2
Griese,B 17.1 16.9 16.0
Johnson,B 15.8 14.4 17.8
Weinke,C 16.0 7.2 0.7
Couch,T 14.5 13.3 13.3
Kitna,J 13.9 7.5 17.0
Brady,T 14.7 12.8 18.1
Chandler,C 15.3 8.1 7.8
Testaverde,V 12.5 11.7 6.7
Miller,J 11.8 9.5 13.2
Hasselbeck,M 11.0 6.6 16.9
Johnson,R 15.4 4.7 5.7
Carter,Q 11.8 9.3 13.5
Vick,M 10.4 16.5 21.5

 
A Look back at the 2002 Wide Reciever Projections - 75 % Success
  2001 2002 2002 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Harrison,M 15.2 13.7 15.0
Owens,T 15.0 13.6 15.9
Boston,D 13.2 11.8 7.5
Smith,R 13.5 12.4 8.4
Moss,R 11.8 13.0 11.7
Smith,J 11.6 11.2 9.1
Horn,J 11.3 11.8 10.8
Holt,T 11.1 12.7 9.8
Brown,T 10.9 10.7 6.7
Rice,J 10.5 9.0 10.3
Mason,D 11.9 9.9 10.1
Conway,C 10.4 11.0 12.0
Johnson,K 10.2 9.3 6.2
Booker,M 10.1 9.2 10.0
Brown,T 9.9 9.6 7.7
Jackson,D 9.8 9.5 9.3
Bruce,I 9.3 10.7 9.5
Ismail,Q 9.2 7.6 4.6
McCardell,K 9.2 8.6 7.4
Schroeder,B 10.5 7.4 8.1
Price,P 8.8 9.1 11.1
Morton,J 8.8 9.6 4.5
Coles,L 8.7 9.9 10.7
Thrash,J 9.1 8.3 8.3
Burress,P 8.6 9.9 10.9
Toomer,A 8.5 8.9 11.4
Jackson,W 8.4 5.9 3.2
Ward,H 8.3 7.6 13.7
Johnson,K 8.8 9.5 8.7
Chambers,C 8.6 10.1 7.1
Dyson,K 7.8 8.9 6.3
Carter,C 7.7 3.5 3.2
Moulds,E 7.5 10.1 11.8
Patten,D 7.9 6.2 7.5
Freeman,A 7.3 7.8 5.6
Hilliard,I 7.4 7.9 8.6
Stokes,J 6.7 8.1 3.6
Gardner,R 6.2 8.8 9.3
Scott,D 6.3 1.0 2.7
Westbrook,M 5.7 7.4 4.3
Galloway,J 6.1 6.5 9.3
McKnight,J 5.6 4.8 5.4
Jurevicius,J 6.3 5.4 5.5
Proehl,R 6.2 4.6 4.7
Gadsden,O 6.1 6.3 3.8
Pinkston,T 5.9 6.4 8.0
Chrebet,W 5.8 7.2 8.2
Taylor,T 5.6 8.2 8.3
Warrick,P 4.6 7.2 6.6
Sanders,F 5.3 5.0 5.2
Hayes,D 4.8 4.1 3.6
Jenkins,M 5.4 5.2 4.5
Mathis,T 4.3 5.5 3.4
Finneran,B 6.1 6.4 8.6
Hakim,A 4.5 8.1 7.2
Alexander,D 6.1 6.9 2.8
Jefferson,S 4.7 5.4 4.1
Terrell,D 4.1 4.2 6.1
Bradford,C 4.6 7.2 7.5
Muhammad,M 5.9 9.2 8.0
Robinson,K 4.1 8.0 10.0
Morgan,Q 3.9 4.9 9.9
Kennison,E 4.8 7.5 6.8
Byrd,I 4.2 5.7 3.2
Shaw,B 4.4 6.2 3.9
Dwight,T 4.9 6.1 5.7
Stokley,B 3.6 6.3 6.4
Green,J 4.2 2.7 2.6
Pathon,J 11.1 5.0 5.9
White,D 3.1 5.1 5.7
Crowell,G 10.4 3.2 3.3
Streets,T 2.7 4.1 7.0

 

A Look back at the 2002 Tight End Projections - 77 % Success

  2001 2002 2002 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction

Gonzalez,T

8.2

8.5

7.5

Pollard,M

7.6

7.1

5.6

Sharpe,S

5.8

6.4

7.2

Clark,D

7.1

3.4

2.1

Wycheck,F

5.8

5.8

3.4

Franks,B

5.7

6.0

6.1

Chamberlain,B

5.6

5.5

3.2

Sloan,D

6.9

5.2

1.2

Lewis,C

5.6

5.7

4.4

Riemersma,J

5.1

4.7

2.3

Conwell,E

5.1

4.3

4.2

Walls,W

5.8

5.1

4.4

Jones,F

5.2

5.4

3.2

Becht,A

4.4

5.9

3.9

Johnson,E

3.6

4.5

4.0

Carswell,D

3.9

3.2

3.1

Moore,D

4.0

3.5

3.3

Crumpler,A

4.3

4.6

5.0

Brady,K

3.6

5.0

4.7

Williams,R

3.0

3.4

1.6

Dilger,K

3.3

4.1

3.5

Williams,B

4.2

1.9

3.3

Cleeland,C

6.3

2.8

2.2

Wiggins,J

3.7

2.9

2.0

Weaver,J

2.8

1.8

5.1

Kozlowski,B

4.7

1.1

1.5

Kinney,E

3.2

2.1

1.9

Flemister,Z

3.2

3.4

3.8

Ricks,M

2.8

3.3

3.7

Hape,P

2.5

2.3

2.4

 
A Look back at the 2002 Kicker Projections - 57 % Success
  2001 2002 2002 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Vanderjagt,M. 10.1 10.9 7.9
Elam,J. 9.8 10.8 9.1
Brown,K. 9.7 7.5 6.1
Wilkins,J. 9.1 10.4 7.1
Edinger,P. 9.1 10.0 7.9
Carney,J. 9.5 8.3 10.2
Feely,J. 8.8 8.9 10.9
Peterson,T. 8.7 9.4 7.3
Vinatieri,A. 8.5 9.6 9.2
Janikowski,S. 8.9 8.5 9.6
Stover,M. 8.4 9.2 7.7
Akers,D. 8.1 9.7 10.1
Longwell,R. 8.1 10.0 9.6
Hall,J. 8.1 8.7 8.0
Conway,B. 8.5 9.0 8.0
Andersen,M. 7.6 8.1 9.9
Nedney,J. 7.3 8.3 8.3
Cortez,J. 7.3 7.8 7.9
Gramatica,M. 8.3 9.3 10.3
Lindell,R. 7.2 7.8 7.8
Hanson,J. 8.1 9.1 7.6
Kasay,J. 7.1 8.1 5.5
Dawson,P. 6.9 7.4 7.5
Mare,O. 7.2 9.9 8.4
Hollis,M. 6.4 8.5 8.9
Rackers,N. 6.1 6.5 5.5
Anderson,G. 5.9 6.0 7.4
Gramatica,B. 6.6 6.5 5.6