2007: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*
Quarterbacks:
26 out of
the top 34 = 76% correct
Running Backs:40 out of
top 50 = 80% correct
Wide Receivers:
46 out
of top 60 = 77% correct
Tight Ends:
27 out of
top 30 = 90% correct
Place Kickers:
21 out of the top 30 = 70% correct
*Based on predicting whether or not a
player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed
listing of each player and position. (
2006 /
2005 /2004
/
2003 /
2002
Forecasting Results.)
The analysis below
measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The
focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting
whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than
the previous year. It
assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards
rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for
rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per
Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a
prognosticator's control.
A look back
at the 2007 Quarterback Projections -
76 % Success
|
|
2006 |
2007 |
2007 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Manning,P |
22.1 |
20.5 |
DOWN |
19.7 |
DOWN |
 |
|
Palmer,C |
18.2 |
19.0 |
UP |
17.0 |
DOWN |
 |
|
Brees,D |
19.1 |
18.2 |
DOWN |
19.4 |
UP |
|
|
Brady,T |
16.2 |
18.1 |
UP |
27.9 |
UP |
|
|
Bulger,M |
18.7 |
17.8 |
DOWN |
8.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
McNabb,D |
23.2 |
17.5 |
DOWN |
18.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Rivers,P |
15.3 |
17.0 |
UP |
13.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Kitna,J |
17.4 |
16.7 |
DOWN |
15.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Romo,T |
12.8 |
16.0 |
UP |
21.4 |
UP |
|
|
Young,V |
15.3 |
15.8 |
UP |
12.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Roethlisberger,B |
14.9 |
15.6 |
UP |
19.8 |
UP |
|
|
Leinart,M |
13.7 |
15.6 |
UP |
7.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Manning,E |
14.0 |
15.5 |
UP |
14.5 |
UP |
|
|
Schaub,M |
0.8 |
15.3 |
UP |
8.5 |
UP |
|
|
Favre,B |
14.9 |
15.2 |
UP |
18.2 |
UP |
|
|
Hasselbeck,M |
14.6 |
15.0 |
UP |
18.5 |
UP |
|
|
Green,T |
10.4 |
14.9 |
UP |
11.7 |
UP |
|
|
Smith,A |
15.2 |
14.9 |
DOWN |
7.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Delhomme,J |
14.4 |
14.8 |
UP |
21.3 |
UP |
|
|
Losman,J |
13.8 |
14.7 |
UP |
9.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Garcia,J |
13.8 |
14.7 |
UP |
14.1 |
UP |
|
|
Cutler,J |
15.6 |
14.7 |
DOWN |
15.8 |
UP |
|
|
Grossman,R |
13.2 |
14.7 |
UP |
9.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Campbell,J |
13.0 |
14.0 |
UP |
14.3 |
UP |
|
|
Pennington,C |
13.4 |
13.3 |
DOWN |
13.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
McNair,S |
14.0 |
13.9 |
DOWN |
9.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jackson,T |
9.3 |
13.8 |
UP |
9.5 |
UP |
|
|
Harrington,J |
12.0 |
11.5 |
DOWN |
7.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Huard,D |
13.6 |
11.3 |
DOWN |
11.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Garrard,D |
10.6 |
11.0 |
UP |
18.0 |
UP |
|
|
Culpepper,D |
14.0 |
9.1 |
DOWN |
6.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
McCown,J |
0.7 |
8.9 |
UP |
10.1 |
UP |
|
|
Croyle,B |
0.0 |
8.7 |
UP |
8.4 |
UP |
|
|
Carr,D |
11.9 |
8.1 |
DOWN |
6.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A look back
at the 2007 Running Back Projections -
80 % Success |
|
|
2006 |
2007 |
2007 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Tomlinson,L |
26.1 |
23.1 |
DOWN |
19.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jackson,S |
20.6 |
20.6 |
UP |
14.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,L |
20.9 |
19.2 |
DOWN |
12.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gore,F |
17.0 |
16.9 |
DOWN |
12.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Alexander,S |
13.6 |
16.6 |
UP |
8.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Parker,W |
16.8 |
15.7 |
DOWN |
10.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Addai,J |
11.8 |
14.4 |
UP |
15.6 |
UP |
|
|
Westbrook,B |
17.2 |
14.0 |
DOWN |
18.8 |
UP |
|
|
Bush,R |
11.2 |
13.5 |
UP |
11.3 |
UP |
|
|
Johnson,R |
13.4 |
13.2 |
DOWN |
7.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Maroney,L |
9.7 |
13.2 |
UP |
8.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
McGahee,W |
10.8 |
12.7 |
UP |
12.8 |
UP |
|
|
Jones-Drew,M |
14.3 |
12.6 |
DOWN |
11.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Henry,T |
12.2 |
12.6 |
UP |
9.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Portis,C |
13.9 |
12.4 |
DOWN |
14.7 |
UP |
|
|
Brown,R |
12.2 |
12.1 |
DOWN |
8.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Benson,C |
7.1 |
12.0 |
UP |
9.5 |
UP |
|
|
James,E |
10.9 |
11.9 |
UP |
11.6 |
UP |
|
|
Jones,T |
10.8 |
11.5 |
UP |
9.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Peterson,A |
0.0 |
10.9 |
UP |
17.1 |
UP |
|
|
Green,A |
12.8 |
10.8 |
DOWN |
8.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Norwood,J |
6.1 |
10.7 |
UP |
6.3 |
UP |
|
|
Williams,C |
7.5 |
10.6 |
UP |
10.1 |
UP |
|
|
Jacobs,B |
7.4 |
10.5 |
UP |
14.0 |
UP |
|
|
Lynch,M |
0.0 |
10.2 |
UP |
13.6 |
UP |
|
|
McAllister,D |
12.4 |
10.2 |
DOWN |
3.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Barber III,M |
11.3 |
10.0 |
DOWN |
12.3 |
UP |
|
|
Lewis,J |
11.2 |
9.9 |
DOWN |
14.7 |
UP |
|
|
Williams,D |
7.2 |
9.9 |
UP |
7.5 |
UP |
|
|
Jackson,B |
0.0 |
9.8 |
UP |
5.1 |
UP |
|
|
Taylor,C |
12.4 |
9.6 |
DOWN |
11.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Taylor,F |
11.7 |
9.6 |
DOWN |
10.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jordan,L |
6.3 |
9.5 |
UP |
8.9 |
UP |
|
|
Morency,V |
4.8 |
9.4 |
UP |
3.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jones,J |
9.2 |
9.0 |
DOWN |
5.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bell,T |
9.7 |
8.8 |
DOWN |
6.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Foster,D |
8.9 |
8.5 |
DOWN |
8.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Betts,L |
11.9 |
8.1 |
DOWN |
3.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brown,C |
3.2 |
8.0 |
UP |
5.6 |
UP |
|
|
Dunn,W |
10.1 |
7.6 |
DOWN |
7.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
White,L |
2.3 |
7.6 |
UP |
10.3 |
UP |
|
|
Droughns,R |
8.4 |
7.2 |
DOWN |
4.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jones,K |
14.1 |
6.9 |
DOWN |
9.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Washington,L |
7.3 |
6.6 |
DOWN |
5.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Buckhalter,C |
4.9 |
6.6 |
UP |
4.9 |
UP |
|
|
Peterson,A |
1.6 |
6.0 |
UP |
7.2 |
UP |
|
|
Pittman,M |
4.4 |
6.0 |
UP |
4.8 |
UP |
|
|
Leonard,B |
0.0 |
5.9 |
UP |
3.2 |
UP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A look back
at the 2007 Wide Receiver Projections -
77 % Success
|
|
2006 |
2007 |
2007 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Smith,S |
12.6 |
12.2 |
DOWN |
9.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,C |
11.3 |
12.0 |
UP |
12.3 |
UP |
|
|
Owens,T |
12.3 |
11.9 |
DOWN |
15.1 |
UP |
|
|
Harrison,M |
13.1 |
11.7 |
DOWN |
6.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Fitzgerald,L |
10.1 |
11.4 |
UP |
13.4 |
UP |
|
|
Wayne,R |
11.6 |
11.0 |
DOWN |
13.2 |
UP |
|
|
Walker,J |
10.9 |
10.9 |
DOWN |
4.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Colston,M |
10.9 |
10.8 |
DOWN |
11.6 |
UP |
|
|
Johnson,A |
9.1 |
10.8 |
UP |
14.8 |
UP |
|
|
Evans,L |
11.1 |
10.8 |
DOWN |
7.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Williams,R |
10.8 |
10.4 |
DOWN |
7.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Boldin,A |
9.2 |
10.4 |
UP |
11.7 |
UP |
|
|
Houshmandzadeh,T |
11.6 |
10.3 |
DOWN |
11.7 |
UP |
|
|
Driver,D |
11.2 |
10.1 |
DOWN |
39.1 |
UP |
|
|
Burress,P |
10.6 |
10.0 |
DOWN |
10.9 |
UP |
|
|
Holt,T |
11.2 |
9.8 |
DOWN |
10.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brown,R |
8.6 |
9.7 |
UP |
6.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Moss,S |
8.8 |
9.5 |
UP |
7.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Coles,L |
9.2 |
9.4 |
UP |
9.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,C |
0.0 |
9.4 |
UP |
7.4 |
UP |
|
|
Edwards,B |
7.8 |
9.4 |
UP |
14.1 |
UP |
|
|
Cotchery,J |
8.4 |
9.3 |
UP |
8.6 |
UP |
|
|
Branch,D |
7.1 |
9.3 |
UP |
9.0 |
UP |
|
|
Jackson,V |
5.2 |
9.2 |
UP |
5.4 |
UP |
|
|
Clayton,M |
7.6 |
9.2 |
UP |
3.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Ward,H |
9.8 |
9.2 |
DOWN |
8.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Chambers,C |
6.3 |
9.0 |
UP |
7.6 |
UP |
|
|
Galloway,J |
9.3 |
8.9 |
DOWN |
9.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jackson,D |
12.0 |
8.7 |
DOWN |
4.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Hackett,D |
6.1 |
8.3 |
UP |
9.4 |
UP |
|
|
Moss,R |
5.6 |
8.2 |
UP |
18.0 |
UP |
|
|
Holmes,S |
6.0 |
8.2 |
UP |
11.1 |
UP |
|
|
Kennison,E |
7.4 |
8.2 |
UP |
1.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Stallworth,D |
8.6 |
8.1 |
DOWN |
5.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jennings,G |
5.8 |
7.8 |
UP |
10.3 |
UP |
|
|
Horn,J |
9.2 |
7.7 |
DOWN |
2.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Battle,A |
5.6 |
7.7 |
UP |
6.4 |
UP |
|
|
Williams,R |
0.9 |
7.6 |
UP |
6.3 |
UP |
|
|
Bruce,I |
8.0 |
7.4 |
DOWN |
7.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jones,J |
0.0 |
7.4 |
UP |
6.1 |
UP |
|
|
Henderson,D |
8.6 |
7.4 |
DOWN |
5.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Welker,W |
4.7 |
7.3 |
UP |
10.6 |
UP |
|
|
Jones,B |
3.9 |
7.3 |
UP |
5.8 |
UP |
|
|
Curtis,K |
4.5 |
7.2 |
UP |
9.2 |
UP |
|
|
Wilford,E |
4.0 |
7.1 |
UP |
4.4 |
UP |
|
|
Jones,J |
0.0 |
7.1 |
UP |
2.5 |
UP |
|
|
Furrey,M |
9.1 |
7.1 |
DOWN |
4.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Berrian,B |
7.6 |
7.1 |
DOWN |
7.8 |
UP |
|
|
Williams,D |
3.3 |
6.9 |
UP |
3.6 |
UP |
|
|
Marshall,B |
2.9 |
6.9 |
UP |
11.3 |
UP |
|
|
Stovall,M |
1.4 |
6.8 |
UP |
2.9 |
UP |
|
|
Bennett,D |
5.8 |
6.8 |
UP |
4.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Northcutt,D |
2.0 |
6.7 |
UP |
5.8 |
UP |
|
|
Booker,M |
8.1 |
6.7 |
DOWN |
4.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Muhammad,M |
7.3 |
6.6 |
DOWN |
5.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Curry,R |
4.9 |
6.6 |
UP |
6.0 |
UP |
|
|
Jurevicius,J |
5.2 |
6.6 |
UP |
5.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Colbert,K |
0.5 |
6.6 |
UP |
3.0 |
UP |
|
|
Crayton,P |
4.8 |
6.5 |
UP |
8.6 |
UP |
|
|
Davis,C |
0.0 |
6.4 |
UP |
2.6 |
UP |
|
|
|
A look back at the 2007 Tight End Projections
- 90% Success
|
|
2006 |
2007 |
2007 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Gates,A |
9.1 |
10.2 |
UP |
9.5 |
UP |
|
|
Heap,T |
7.1 |
8.2 |
UP |
6.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Winslow,K |
6.6 |
7.5 |
UP |
8.8 |
UP |
|
|
Davis,V |
4.5 |
7.4 |
UP |
5.4 |
UP |
|
|
Cooley,C |
6.8 |
7.1 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Gonzalez,T |
8.0 |
6.9 |
DOWN |
9.2 |
UP |
|
|
Shockey,J |
6.9 |
6.8 |
DOWN |
5.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Witten,J |
5.1 |
6.4 |
UP |
9.8 |
UP |
|
|
Crumpler,A |
7.9 |
6.3 |
DOWN |
5.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Watson,B |
6.3 |
6.1 |
DOWN |
4.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Smith,L |
5.7 |
5.5 |
DOWN |
3.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Scheffler,T |
4.1 |
5.3 |
UP |
7.1 |
UP |
|
|
Clark,D |
5.1 |
5.2 |
UP |
8.2 |
UP |
|
|
Daniels,O |
4.6 |
5.2 |
UP |
5.9 |
UP |
|
|
Miller,H |
4.3 |
5.2 |
UP |
6.6 |
UP |
|
|
McMichael,R |
5.1 |
5.1 |
DOWN |
3.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Clark,D |
6.2 |
4.6 |
DOWN |
5.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,E |
3.2 |
4.4 |
UP |
3.6 |
UP |
|
|
Olsen,G |
0.0 |
4.1 |
UP |
4.3 |
UP |
|
|
Miller,Z |
0.0 |
3.9 |
UP |
4.2 |
UP |
|
|
Baker,C |
3.4 |
3.7 |
UP |
4.2 |
UP |
|
|
Stevens,J |
4.3 |
3.7 |
DOWN |
7.2 |
UP |
|
|
Scaife,B |
4.0 |
3.7 |
DOWN |
3.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
King,J |
0.5 |
3.5 |
UP |
3.5 |
UP |
|
|
Pollard,M |
0.7 |
3.5 |
UP |
3.3 |
UP |
|
|
Graham,D |
3.0 |
3.3 |
UP |
3.3 |
UP |
|
|
Martin,D |
2.9 |
3.2 |
UP |
3.0 |
UP |
|
|
Lewis,M |
1.3 |
3.1 |
UP |
3.9 |
UP |
|
|
Royal,R |
2.5 |
3.0 |
UP |
3.9 |
UP |
|
|
Wrighster,G |
3.3 |
3.0 |
DOWN |
2.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
|
A look back at the 2007 Place Kicker Projections
- 70% Success |
|
|
2006 |
2007 |
2007 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Rackers,N. |
7.8 |
9.5 |
UP |
7.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Graham,S. |
7.8 |
8.9 |
UP |
38.8 |
UP |
|
|
Kasay,J. |
7.3 |
8.8 |
UP |
7.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Wilkins,J. |
9.3 |
8.8 |
DOWN |
110.0 |
UP |
|
|
Mare,O. |
6.9 |
8.7 |
UP |
22.7 |
UP |
|
|
Kaeding,N. |
9.1 |
8.7 |
DOWN |
9.6 |
UP |
|
|
Gould,R. |
9.7 |
8.6 |
DOWN |
12.5 |
UP |
|
|
Vinatieri,A. |
7.6 |
8.6 |
UP |
8.4 |
UP |
|
|
Brown,J. |
7.8 |
8.5 |
UP |
69.5 |
UP |
|
|
Gostkowski,S. |
6.7 |
8.5 |
UP |
10.1 |
UP |
|
|
Scobee,J. |
8.3 |
8.5 |
UP |
4.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Elam,J. |
7.7 |
8.4 |
UP |
45.0 |
UP |
|
|
Akers,D. |
6.8 |
8.4 |
UP |
39.0 |
UP |
|
|
Nugent,M. |
7.1 |
8.3 |
UP |
9.2 |
UP |
|
|
Feely,J. |
7.1 |
8.3 |
UP |
26.5 |
UP |
|
|
Reed,J. |
6.7 |
8.2 |
UP |
131.0 |
UP |
|
|
Stover,M. |
8.1 |
8.1 |
UP |
8.1 |
UP |
|
|
Hanson,J. |
8.1 |
8.0 |
DOWN |
20.7 |
UP |
|
|
Crosby,M. |
0.0 |
7.9 |
UP |
40.0 |
UP |
|
|
Medlock,J. |
0.0 |
7.9 |
UP |
0.8 |
UP |
|
|
Nedney,J. |
7.8 |
7.9 |
UP |
12.7 |
UP |
|
|
Folk,N. |
0.0 |
7.6 |
UP |
146.0 |
UP |
|
|
Tynes,L. |
7.4 |
7.5 |
UP |
8.1 |
UP |
|
|
Janikowski,S. |
4.9 |
7.4 |
UP |
14.1 |
UP |
|
|
Lindell,R. |
7.1 |
7.3 |
UP |
8.1 |
UP |
|
|
Longwell,R. |
5.9 |
7.3 |
UP |
7.6 |
UP |
|
|
Bironas,R. |
6.5 |
38.0 |
UP |
9.4 |
UP |
|
|
Suisham,S. |
4.9 |
6.1 |
UP |
9.1 |
UP |
|
|
Dawson,P. |
6.0 |
5.7 |
DOWN |
8.6 |
UP |
|
|
Brown,K. |
5.9 |
5.6 |
DOWN |
10.0 |
UP |
|
|
