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"Award Winning Fantistics .... Consider it fantasy's version of the theory of relativity."
 
 
 
 

 

 

On Average, since our inception in 1999, we have correctly projected the fantasy direction on approximately 8 out of 10 NFL players.

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

2012: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 22 out of the top 30 = 73% correct

Running Backs:  41 out of top 50 = 82% correct

Wide Receivers: 49 out of top 60 = 77% correct

Tight Ends: 25 out of top 30 = 69% correct

Place Kickers: 19 out of the top 28 = 68% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position.  Previous Years 2012/ '11/'10/'09/'08/'07/'06/'05/'04/'03/'02

A look back: 2012 Quarterback Projections - 73 % Success

  2011 2012 2012 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Rodgers,Aa 29.6 26.5 DOWN 24.6 DOWN
Brees,Dr 27.8 25.7 DOWN 25.0 DOWN
Brady,To 26.4 24.8 DOWN 24.3 DOWN
Newton,Ca 25.6 22.9 DOWN 23.0 DOWN
Stafford,Ma 24.5 22.8 DOWN 20.7 DOWN
Ryan,Ma 20.1 20.7 UP 22.2 UP
Rivers,Ph 19.3 19.8 UP 16.1 DOWN
Romo,To 20.3 19.4 DOWN 20.6 UP
Manning,El 21.1 18.9 DOWN 17.2 DOWN
Vick,Mi 21.1 18.5 DOWN 18.7 DOWN
Manning,Pe - 18.2 - 22.5 - N/A
Schaub,Ma 18.5 18.0 DOWN 16.4 DOWN
Luck,An - 17.6 - 20.6 - N/A
Roethlisberger,Be 17.8 17.4 DOWN 19.7 UP
Griffin III,Ro - 17.1 - 23.7 - N/A
Cutler,Ja 16.6 16.9 UP 14.9 DOWN
Flacco,Jo 15.7 16.8 UP 17.4 UP
Locker,Ja 11.0 16.1 UP 13.5 UP
Palmer,Ca 16.6 15.9 DOWN 18.0 UP
Dalton,An 15.3 15.7 UP 18.5 UP
Bradford,Sa 12.2 15.6 UP 16.4 UP
Wilson,Ru - 15.6 - 19.6 - N/A
Freeman,Jo 16.5 15.5 DOWN 18.2 UP
Fitzpatrick,Ry 16.3 15.4 DOWN 16.2 DOWN
Skelton,Jo 15.5 14.5 DOWN 6.7 DOWN
Smith,Al 15.3 14.2 DOWN 13.0 DOWN
Tannehill,Ry - 13.7 - 13.7 - N/A
Cassel,Ma 13.0 13.3 UP 11.0 DOWN
Ponder,Ch 12.8 12.7 DOWN 14.4 UP
Weeden,Br - 11.9 - 13.4 - N/A
Foles,Ni - 11.7 - 13.7 - N/A
Sanchez,Ma 18.0 11.6 DOWN 10.9 DOWN
Flynn,Ma 10.2 9.4 DOWN 2.9 DOWN
Gabbert,Bl 9.8 5.9 DOWN 9.0 DOWN
Tebow,Ti 17.2 5.8 DOWN 7.1 DOWN
Henne,Ch 17.0 9.9 DOWN 11.3 DOWN
Hasselbeck,Ma 14.3 5.7 DOWN 1.3 DOWN

A look back: 2012 Running Back Projections - 82 % Success
  2011 2012 2012 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Foster,Ar 19.7 20.3 UP 16.6 DOWN
Rice,Ra 18.6 17.0 DOWN 13.9 DOWN
McCoy,Le 18.8 16.9 DOWN 12.6 DOWN
McFadden,Da 15.3 13.6 DOWN 9.5 DOWN
Johnson,Ch 10.7 13.6 UP 11.4 UP
Murray,De 9.2 12.8 UP 11.5 UP
Jones-Drew,Ma 16.5 12.8 DOWN 10.3 DOWN
Charles,Ja 7.5 12.0 UP 13.2 UP
Peterson,Ad 15.8 12.0 DOWN 19.3 UP
Forte,Ma 14.4 12.0 DOWN 12.0 DOWN
Mathews,Ry 13.6 11.9 DOWN 8.5 DOWN
Richardson,Tr - 11.8 - 13.6 - N/A
Lynch,Ma 14.7 11.7 DOWN 15.7 UP
Martin,Do - 11.4 - 16.5 - N/A
Jackson,Fr 17.4 11.2 DOWN 8.9 DOWN
Turner,Mi 13.6 11.1 DOWN 9.9 DOWN
Bradshaw,Ah 13.3 10.8 DOWN 11.6 DOWN
Gore,Fr 11.3 10.5 DOWN 12.8 UP
Jackson,St 12.3 10.3 DOWN 10.0 DOWN
McGahee,Wi 10.3 10.3 DOWN 11.9 UP
Bush,Re 12.1 10.2 DOWN 11.0 DOWN
Greene,Sh 10.2 10.2 DOWN 10.6 UP
Sproles,Da 11.6 10.1 DOWN 10.7 DOWN
Green-Ellis,Be 9.3 9.9 UP 9.7 UP
Ridley,St 4.3 8.7 UP 12.7 UP
Spiller,C. 7.4 8.5 UP 13.6 UP
Williams,De 8.7 8.5 DOWN 8.4 DOWN
Williams,Ry - 8.5 - 4.2 - N/A
Wells,Be 12.1 8.4 DOWN 7.0 DOWN
Wilson,Da - 8.4 - 4.3 - N/A
Brown,Do 8.6 8.4 DOWN 5.2 DOWN
Benson,Ce 10.1 8.3 DOWN 8.1 DOWN
Thomas,Da 5.5 8.0 UP 5.5 UP
Smith,Ke 13.7 8.0 DOWN 2.4 DOWN
Leshoure,Mi - 7.8 - 11.1 - N/A
Hillis,Pe 9.0 7.8 DOWN 3.1 DOWN
Helu,Ro 8.0 7.7 DOWN 1.6 DOWN
Rodgers,Ja 3.2 7.7 UP 5.5 UP
Tate,Be 8.5 7.7 DOWN 4.1 DOWN
Stewart,Jo 9.2 7.5 DOWN 6.8 DOWN
Bush,Mi 11.8 7.5 DOWN 6.1 DOWN
Turbin,Ro - 7.4 - 3.3 - N/A
Ingram,Ma 8.2 7.3 DOWN 5.8 DOWN
Mendenhall,Ra 10.8 7.2 DOWN 5.1 DOWN
Morris,Al - 7.1 - 15.4 - N/A
Hillman,Ro - 7.1 - 3.2 - N/A
Hunter,Ke 5.3 7.0 UP 5.0 DOWN
Vereen,Sh 6.0 6.9 UP 4.9 DOWN
Jennings,Ra - 6.6 - 5.3 - N/A
Green,Al 1.0 6.6 UP 4.9 UP
Pead,Is - 6.2 - 0.5 - N/A
Thomas,Pi 8.4 6.1 DOWN 6.3 DOWN
Redman,Is 4.6 6.1 UP 5.5 UP
Goodson,Mi 0.0 6.1 UP 4.0 UP
Blount,Le 8.8 6.1 DOWN 2.1 DOWN
Jones,Fe 7.2 6.1 DOWN 6.1 DOWN
Miller,La - 6.0 - 2.7 - N/A
Hardesty,Mo 4.3 6.0 UP 2.9 DOWN
Royster,Ev 6.7 6.0 DOWN 2.0 DOWN
Brown,Ro 1.5 5.9 UP 4.2 UP
Gerhart,To 6.4 5.9 DOWN 2.4 DOWN

A look back: 2012 Wide Receiver Projections - 77 % Success
  2011 2012 2012 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Johnson,Ca 16.6 11.7 DOWN 14.2 DOWN
Jones,Ju 12.5 11.4 DOWN 11.4 DOWN
Fitzgerald,La 11.8 11.0 DOWN 6.5 DOWN
Green,A. 10.2 10.9 UP 12.8 UP
Johnson,An 8.9 10.8 UP 11.5 UP
Nicks,Ha 10.5 10.8 UP 6.7 DOWN
Marshall,Br 9.9 10.7 UP 13.5 UP
Cruz,Vi 13.1 10.6 DOWN 10.6 DOWN
White,Ro 11.1 10.6 DOWN 11.1 DOWN
Bryant,De 9.8 10.6 UP 13.1 UP
Harvin,Pe 11.2 10.6 DOWN 11.0 DOWN
Brown,An 7.9 10.6 UP 8.4 UP
Wallace,Mi 10.8 10.5 DOWN 8.8 DOWN
Jennings,Gr 11.5 10.5 DOWN 6.7 DOWN
Jackson,Vi 10.6 10.4 DOWN 11.7 UP
Nelson,Jo 13.5 10.3 DOWN 9.7 DOWN
Welker,We 13.4 10.0 DOWN 10.8 DOWN
Colston,Ma 11.6 9.9 DOWN 11.0 DOWN
Britt,Ke 15.7 9.9 DOWN 5.9 DOWN
Smith,To 8.7 9.9 UP 8.4 DOWN
Bowe,Dw 9.2 9.8 UP 7.5 DOWN
Lloyd,Br 8.5 9.7 UP 7.6 DOWN
Smith,St 11.7 9.7 DOWN 9.0 DOWN
Jackson,De 8.3 9.6 UP 7.4 DOWN
Decker,Er 6.8 9.6 UP 11.5 UP
Maclin,Je 8.9 9.5 UP 8.5 DOWN
Johnson,St 8.9 9.4 UP 8.9 UP
Garcon,Pi 8.4 9.2 UP 8.6 UP
Thomas,De 8.9 9.2 UP 12.8 UP
Austin,Mi 10.0 8.9 DOWN 8.1 DOWN
Blackmon,Ju - 8.9 - 7.4 - N/A
Floyd,Ma 9.7 8.9 DOWN 8.0 DOWN
Moore,De 8.0 8.4 UP 8.1 UP
Wayne,Re 7.5 8.3 UP 10.3 UP
Meachem,Ro 6.7 8.2 UP 2.1 DOWN
Young,Ti 6.1 7.9 UP 6.4 UP
Crabtree,Mi 7.5 7.8 UP 10.3 UP
Holmes,Sa 7.3 7.8 UP 8.3 UP
Heyward-Bey,Da 8.7 7.8 DOWN 6.1 DOWN
Wright,Ke - 7.5 - 5.8 - N/A
LaFell,Br 5.3 7.4 UP 6.8 UP
Little,Gr 5.3 7.3 UP 5.6 UP
Washington,Na 9.4 7.3 DOWN 6.1 DOWN
Moore,La 8.0 7.2 DOWN 9.3 UP
Amendola,Da 5.0 7.2 UP 7.1 UP
Bess,Da 4.6 7.1 UP 6.4 UP
Rice,Si 6.8 7.1 UP 7.4 UP
Burleson,Na 6.4 7.1 UP 6.8 UP
Baldwin,Jo 2.8 7.0 UP 2.9 UP
Robinson,La 10.9 6.9 DOWN 3.6 DOWN
Streater,Ro - 6.7 - 4.8 - N/A
Simpson,Je 6.1 6.6 UP 2.1 DOWN
Jeffery,Al - 6.6 - 5.5 - N/A
Boldin,An 7.6 6.4 DOWN 7.8 UP
Hilton,T. - 6.4 - 8.7 - N/A
Cobb,Ra 3.1 6.3 UP 10.4 UP
Williams,Mi 6.3 6.3 UP 9.7 UP
Quick,Br - 6.3 - 2.1 - N/A
Henderson,De 4.1 6.3 UP 2.6 DOWN
Binns,Ar - 6.3 - 3.4 - N/A
Martin,Ke - 6.3 - 1.2 - N/A
Gordon,Jo - 6.3 - 6.9 - N/A
Baldwin,Do 6.4 6.2 DOWN 3.9 DOWN
Floyd,Mi - 6.1 - 4.3 - N/A
Moss,Ra - 6.1 - 3.8 - N/A
Ogletree,Ke 1.9 6.1 UP 4.6 UP
McCluster,De 6.0 6.1 UP 3.6 DOWN
Royal,Ed 2.2 6.0 UP 3.2 UP
Randle,Ru - 5.9 - 3.0 - N/A
Graham,T. - 5.9 - 2.6 - N/A
Jean,Le - 5.9 - 1.5 - N/A
Moss,Sa 6.8 5.8 DOWN 6.7 DOWN
Hankerson,Le 4.0 5.7 UP 4.6 UP
Nelson,Da 6.0 5.7 DOWN 3.1 DOWN
Edwards,Br 2.0 5.7 UP 2.0 DOWN

 

 

A look back: 2012 Tight End Projections - 69% Success

  2011 2012 2012 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Graham,Ji 12.3 11.0 DOWN 10.1 DOWN
Gronkowski,Ro 15.1 10.9 DOWN 13.2 DOWN
Gates,An 9.2 10.0 UP 6.4 DOWN
Finley,Je 7.8 8.3 UP 4.9 DOWN
Hernandez,Aa 9.9 8.1 DOWN 7.9 DOWN
Davis,Ve 7.2 8.0 UP 5.3 DOWN
Gresham,Je 6.9 7.6 UP 6.5 DOWN
Davis,Fr 8.1 7.5 DOWN 4.7 DOWN
Pettigrew,Br 6.8 7.3 UP 5.3 DOWN
Gonzalez,To 8.1 7.3 DOWN 8.8 UP
Witten,Ja 7.8 7.2 DOWN 7.6 DOWN
Cook,Ja 5.9 7.1 UP 5.9 UP
Celek,Br 6.9 6.9 DOWN 5.0 DOWN
Daniels,Ow 5.7 6.7 UP 7.2 UP
Tamme,Ja 2.7 6.7 UP 4.2 UP
Olsen,Gr 5.3 6.6 UP 7.1 UP
Moeaki,To - 6.2 - 3.4 - N/A
Keller,Du 7.0 6.1 DOWN 5.5 DOWN
Rudolph,Ky 3.1 6.0 UP 6.5 UP
Fleener,Co - 6.0 - 3.3 - N/A
Bennett,Ma 1.4 6.0 UP 5.8 UP
Dickson,Ed 5.2 5.8 UP 1.7 DOWN
Chandler,Sc 5.4 5.8 UP 6.2 UP
Clark,Da 4.7 5.8 UP 4.2 DOWN
Pitta,De 4.2 5.5 UP 6.8 UP
Fasano,An 5.0 5.0 DOWN 4.0 DOWN
Miller,He 4.8 4.8 UP 8.6 UP
Dreessen,Jo 4.4 4.7 UP 4.1 DOWN
Housler,Ro 1.6 4.7 UP 2.8 UP
Kendricks,La 2.3 4.6 UP 4.7 UP
Scheffler,To 4.7 4.5 DOWN 3.8 DOWN

 

 

A look back: 2012 Place Kicker Projections - 68% Success
  2011 2012 2012 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Akers,Da. 9.9 11.5 UP 8.9 DOWN
Bailey,Da. 8.8 10.5 UP 8.6 DOWN
Janikowski,Se. 8.3 10.4 UP 8.4 UP
Gostkowski,St. 9.4 10.2 UP 10.4 UP
Crosby,Ma. 8.7 10.1 UP 7.9 DOWN
Bironas,Ro. 7.4 9.8 UP 7.3 DOWN
Hanson,Ja. 7.4 9.4 UP 9.6 UP
Nugent,Mi. 9.1 9.4 UP 7.1 DOWN
Henery,Al. 7.5 9.0 UP 7.3 DOWN
Bryant,Ma. 7.9 9.0 UP 10.1 UP
Kaeding,Na. 0.0 9.0 UP 5.3 UP
Barth,Co. 6.9 8.9 UP 9.2 UP
Graham,Sh. 7.0 8.8 UP 9.6 UP
Prater,Ma. 5.3 8.7 UP 9.0 UP
Gould,Ro. 7.2 8.6 UP 8.2 UP
Cundiff,Bi. 7.9 8.6 UP 8.2 UP
Tucker,Ju. - 8.3 - 9.4 - N/A
Vinatieri,Ad. 6.1 8.2 UP 8.3 UP
Zuerlein,Gr. - 8.1 - 7.3 - N/A
Carpenter,Da. 7.5 8.0 UP 7.4 DOWN
Suisham,Sh. 6.8 7.9 UP 8.3 UP
Scobee,Jo. 5.6 7.8 UP 6.6 UP
Tynes,La. 6.3 7.7 UP 9.6 UP
Feely,Ja. 5.8 7.5 UP 7.0 UP
Dawson,Ph. 5.3 7.4 UP 8.5 UP
Folk,Ni. 6.3 7.2 UP 6.5 UP
Walsh,Bl. - 6.9 - 10.5 - N/A
Medlock,Ju. - 6.9 - 4.6 - N/A
Lindell,Ri. 5.8 6.5 UP 6.9 UP
Brown,Jo. 5.6 3.9 DOWN 11.5 UP
Novak,Ni. 8.1 3.8 DOWN 7.2 DOWN
Mare,O. 7.4 3.3 DOWN 8.7 UP

 

 
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