On Average, since our inception in 1999, we have correctly projected the fantasy direction on approximately 75% of the players.

Last season, our software ranked top-10 wide receivers Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffery 2 rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Julius Thomas, 12 rounds ahead of his ADP. Top-5 Runningback Knowshon Moreno 9 rounds ahead of his ADP, and rookie sensations Eddie Lacy and Giovanni Bernard 2 rounds ahead of their ADP.

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

2013: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 21 out of the top 30 = 70% correct

Running Backs:  29 out of top 40 = 73% correct

Wide Receivers: 42 out of top 60 = 70% correct

Tight Ends: 25 out of top 30 = 83% correct

Place Kickers: 22 out of the top 30 = 73% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position.  Previous Years 2013/12/'11/'10/'09/'08/'07/'06/'05/'04/'03/'02

A look back: 2013 Quarterback Projections - 70 % Success

	2012	2013		2013		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Manning,Pe	22.5	23.2	UP	29.8	UP
Brees,Dr	25.0	23.4	DOWN	25.8	UP
Dalton,An	18.5	18.6	UP	21.1	UP
Rivers,Ph	16.1	15.4	DOWN	21.0	UP
Newton,Ca	23.0	23.0	DOWN	20.9	DOWN
Stafford,Ma	20.7	20.8	UP	20.6	DOWN
Luck,An	20.6	21.1	UP	20.5	DOWN
Wilson,Ru	19.6	20.9	UP	19.6	UP
Roethlisberger,Be	19.7	16.8	DOWN	19.6	DOWN
Kaepernick,Co	15.1	20.7	UP	19.0	UP
Ryan,Ma	22.2	21.6	DOWN	18.8	DOWN
Romo,To	20.6	20.1	DOWN	20.0	DOWN
Brady,To	24.3	23.1	DOWN	18.6	DOWN
Smith,Al	13.0	15.4	UP	19.4	UP
Foles,Ni	13.7	8.9	DOWN	22.2	UP
Tannehill,Ry	13.7	16.4	UP	18.0	UP
Palmer,Ca	18.0	17.5	DOWN	16.6	DOWN
Griffin III,Ro	23.7	21.4	DOWN	19.2	DOWN
Flacco,Jo	17.4	16.3	DOWN	15.4	DOWN
Smith,Ge	-	11.0	-	14.5	-	-
Manning,El	17.2	18.2	UP	13.3	DOWN
Fitzpatrick,Ry	16.3	5.8	DOWN	17.7	UP
Rodgers,Aa	24.6	23.5	DOWN	21.6	DOWN
Cutler,Ja	14.9	16.4	UP	17.7	UP
Henne,Ch	13.9	13.6	DOWN	12.9	DOWN
Glennon,Mi	-	2.3	-	14.8	-	-
Pryor,Te	13.5	16.8	UP	15.1	UP
Manuel,EJ	-	18.0	-	15.5	-	-
McCown,Jo	-	0.0	-	19.3	-	-
Campbell,Ja	3.3	1.8	DOWN	15.7	UP
Bradford,Sa	16.4	17.6	UP	19.4	UP
Ponder,Ch	14.4	14.3	DOWN	14.6	UP
Vick,Mi	18.7	16.5	DOWN	15.6	DOWN
Weeden,Br	13.4	0.0	DOWN	12.0	DOWN
Clemens,Ke	0.2	14.8	UP	11.4	UP

A look back: 2013 Running Back Projections - 73 % Success

	2012	2013		2013		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Charles,Ja	13.2	14.0	UP	20.8	UP
McCoy,Le	12.6	13.9	UP	17.5	UP
Forte,Ma	12.0	13.3	UP	16.6	UP
Lynch,Ma	15.7	13.3	DOWN	15.1	DOWN
Moreno,Kn	10.4	7.9	DOWN	14.8	UP
Peterson,Ad	19.3	17.6	DOWN	15.0	DOWN
Lacy,Ed	2.4	11.9	UP	14.0	UP
Murray,De	11.5	12.0	UP	14.8	UP
Johnson,Ch	11.4	12.5	UP	12.6	UP
Bush,Re	11.0	12.0	UP	13.8	UP
Jackson,Fr	8.9	7.8	DOWN	11.7	UP
Mathews,Ry	8.5	10.9	UP	11.7	UP
Gore,Fr	12.8	11.3	DOWN	11.3	DOWN
Morris,Al	15.4	13.5	DOWN	11.1	DOWN
Bell,Le	-	10.8	-	13.4	-	-
Bernard,Gi	-	10.8	-	10.6	-	-
Bell,Jo	6.7	6.6	DOWN	10.5	UP
Stacy,Za	-	6.3	-	11.4	-	-
Woodhead,Da	7.3	7.1	DOWN	9.4	UP
Jones-Drew,Ma	10.3	11.9	UP	9.7	DOWN
Williams,De	8.4	8.3	DOWN	9.4	UP
Jennings,Ra	5.3	4.1	DOWN	9.2	UP
Thomas,Pi	6.3	8.2	UP	8.5	UP
Mendenhall,Ra	5.1	8.1	UP	8.7	UP
Ellington,An	-	3.7	-	8.4	-	-
Ridley,St	12.7	12.6	DOWN	9.0	DOWN
Spiller,CJ	13.6	14.7	UP	8.3	DOWN
Brown,Do	5.2	3.9	DOWN	7.7	UP
Blount,Le	2.1	6.3	UP	7.7	UP
Rice,Ra	13.9	13.4	DOWN	8.1	DOWN
Green-Ellis,Be	9.7	8.7	DOWN	7.5	DOWN
Jackson,St	10.0	11.6	UP	9.6	DOWN
Tate,Be	4.1	8.7	UP	8.2	UP
Richardson,Tr	13.6	14.4	UP	7.0	DOWN
Sproles,Da	10.7	10.1	DOWN	7.1	DOWN
Powell,Bi	5.8	8.3	UP	6.5	UP
Ivory,Ch	5.9	8.1	UP	6.8	UP
Miller,La	2.7	10.7	UP	6.2	UP
Rainey,Bo	-	0.0	-	6.1	-	-
Tolbert,Mi	5.7	7.6	UP	6.0	UP
Ball,Mo	-	9.8	-	5.9	-	-
Rodgers,Ja	5.5	6.3	UP	6.1	UP
Vereen,Sh	4.9	10.3	UP	10.9	UP
Foster,Ar	16.6	13.2	DOWN	10.6	DOWN

A look back: 2013 Wide Receiver Projections - 70 % Success

	2012	2013		2013		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Gordon,Jo	6.9	13.3	UP	16.2	UP
Thomas,De	12.8	12.4	DOWN	14.2	UP
Johnson,Ca	14.2	12.0	DOWN	15.8	UP
Green,AJ	12.8	10.8	DOWN	13.0	UP
Bryant,De	13.1	9.2	DOWN	12.7	DOWN
Marshall,Br	13.5	8.6	DOWN	12.6	DOWN
Brown,An	8.5	7.8	DOWN	12.4	UP
Decker,Er	11.5	8.8	DOWN	12.2	UP
Jeffery,Al	5.5	9.3	UP	12.2	UP
Jackson,De	7.4	10.4	UP	11.7	UP
Nelson,Jo	9.7	10.0	UP	11.2	UP
Johnson,An	11.5	10.5	DOWN	10.7	DOWN
Garcon,Pi	8.6	8.6	UP	10.4	UP
Jackson,Vi	11.7	10.6	DOWN	10.3	DOWN
Boldin,An	7.8	7.4	DOWN	10.1	UP
Fitzgerald,La	6.5	6.5	DOWN	9.8	UP
Allen,Ke	-	9.7	-	10.2	-	-
Edelman,Ju	4.6	9.2	UP	8.9	UP
Hilton,TY	8.7	5.6	DOWN	8.7	DOWN
Welker,We	10.8	9.5	DOWN	10.6	DOWN
Jones,Ma	2.8	8.1	UP	8.6	UP
Smith,To	8.4	1.9	DOWN	8.6	UP
Floyd,Mi	4.3	8.8	UP	8.5	UP
Cooper,Ri	3.9	6.4	UP	8.3	UP
Wallace,Mi	8.8	9.1	UP	7.9	DOWN
Hartline,Br	7.1	10.7	UP	7.9	UP
Colston,Ma	11.0	8.0	DOWN	8.3	DOWN
Cruz,Vi	10.6	2.4	DOWN	8.8	DOWN
Tate,Go	7.5	7.0	DOWN	7.7	UP
Cotchery,Je	1.6	2.2	UP	7.5	UP
Wright,Ke	5.8	6.7	UP	7.5	UP
Douglas,Ha	3.1	1.3	DOWN	7.4	UP
Streater,Ro	4.8	7.1	UP	7.2	UP
Royal,Ed	3.2	6.1	UP	7.5	UP
Sanders,Em	4.3	3.9	DOWN	7.0	UP
Washington,Na	6.1	6.8	UP	6.9	UP
Baldwin,Do	3.9	8.3	UP	6.8	UP
Patterson,Co	-	3.2	-	6.5	-	-
Jennings,Gr	6.7	9.0	UP	7.0	UP
Williams,Te	-	7.7	-	6.5	-	-
Jones,Ja	10.2	9.0	DOWN	7.1	DOWN
Moore,De	7.7	9.9	UP	7.7	DOWN
Smith,St	9.0	7.5	DOWN	6.6	DOWN
Bowe,Dw	7.5	8.5	UP	6.5	DOWN
Randle,Ru	3.0	7.5	UP	6.1	UP
Shorts,Ce	10.0	7.1	DOWN	7.4	DOWN
Stills,Ke	-	0.0	-	5.9	-	-
LaFell,Br	6.8	8.0	UP	5.9	DOWN
Brown,Ma	-	0.1	-	6.7	-	-
Hopkins,De	-	9.1	-	5.8	-	-
Boykin,Ja	0.3	10.2	UP	5.8	UP
Nicks,Ha	6.7	-0.2	DOWN	6.0	DOWN
White,Ro	11.1	0.0	DOWN	6.4	DOWN
Ginn,Te	0.1	8.9	UP	5.5	UP
Wright,Ti	-	8.6	-	5.5	-	-
Austin,Ta	-	1.9	-	6.7	-	-
Johnson,St	8.8	8.3	DOWN	6.6	DOWN
Simpson,Je	2.1	4.4	UP	4.9	UP
Woods,Ro	-	9.2	-	5.6	-	-
Dobson,Aa	-	10.9	-	6.3	-	-
Amendola,Da	7.1	11.8	UP	6.3	DOWN
Cobb,Ra	10.4	6.4	DOWN	12.5	UP
Avery,Do	6.1	3.2	DOWN	4.5	DOWN
Kerley,Je	6.0	5.6	DOWN	6.0	DOWN
Jones,Ju	11.4	7.1	DOWN	14.1	UP
Thompkins,Ke	-	6.9	-	5.9	-	-
Underwood,Ti	3.9	6.0	UP	5.7	UP
Pettis,Au	3.6	9.2	UP	4.0	UP
McCluster,De	3.6	4.7	UP	4.2	UP
Wayne,Re	10.3	2.7	DOWN	9.0	DOWN
Durham,Kr	4.6	4.4	DOWN	3.8	DOWN

A look back: 2013 Tight End Projections - 83 % Success

	2012	2013		2013		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Graham,Ji	10.1	10.7	UP	13.6	UP
Davis,Ve	5.3	8.0	UP	10.9	UP
Thomas,Ju	0.0	7.3	UP	10.8	UP
Cameron,Jo	2.0	7.1	UP	8.9	UP
Witten,Ja	7.6	7.9	UP	8.3	UP
Gonzalez,To	8.8	7.8	DOWN	8.3	DOWN
Clay,Ch	2.6	4.5	UP	7.5	UP
Olsen,Gr	7.1	6.4	DOWN	7.4	UP
Gates,An	6.4	7.1	UP	7.0	UP
Bennett,Ma	5.8	6.4	UP	6.6	UP
Cook,Ja	5.9	6.6	UP	6.1	UP
Walker,De	3.2	5.0	UP	6.2	UP
Celek,Br	5.0	5.8	UP	5.4	UP
Fleener,Co	3.3	6.1	UP	5.3	UP
Graham,Ga	3.0	3.6	UP	6.5	UP
Gronkowski,Ro	13.2	10.0	DOWN	11.9	DOWN
Chandler,Sc	6.2	5.0	DOWN	4.8	DOWN
Myers,Br	6.5	6.7	UP	4.8	DOWN
Ertz,Za	-	5.1	-	4.4	-	-
Gresham,Je	6.5	5.9	DOWN	5.0	DOWN
Reed,Jo	-	2.2	-	7.7	-	-
Miller,Za	3.6	5.0	UP	4.9	UP
Miller,He	8.6	4.3	DOWN	4.7	DOWN
Rivera,My	-	0.0	-	4.0	-	-
Cumberland,Je	3.6	5.4	UP	4.3	UP
Fauria,Jo	-	0.0	-	3.9	-	-
Lewis,Ma	4.9	5.4	UP	5.4	UP
Eifert,Ty	-	6.8	-	3.8	-	-
Green,La	1.9	1.2	DOWN	3.5	UP
Pettigrew,Br	5.3	6.5	UP	3.8	DOWN
Clark,Da	4.2	4.7	UP	4.4	UP
Housler,Ro	2.8	5.8	UP	4.0	UP
Winslow,Ke	1.2	0.2	DOWN	4.2	UP
Kendricks,La	4.7	3.6	DOWN	3.3	DOWN
Finley,Je	4.9	7.2	UP	8.0	UP

A look back: 2013 Kicker Projections - 83 % Success

	2012	2013		2013		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Gostkowski,S.	10.4	10.4	DOWN	11.2	UP
Prater,M.	9.0	9.0	DOWN	10.6	UP
Tucker,J.	9.4	9.5	UP	10.1	UP
Vinatieri,A.	8.3	9.4	UP	10.1	UP
Hauschka,S.	7.8	8.6	UP	10.0	UP
Dawson,P.	8.5	10.6	UP	9.9	UP
Crosby,M.	7.9	9.2	UP	9.8	UP
Novak,N.	7.2	8.7	UP	9.8	UP
Bailey,D.	8.6	9.9	UP	9.6	UP
Carpenter,D.	7.4	6.9	DOWN	9.3	UP
Feely,J.	7.0	8.6	UP	9.0	UP
Folk,N.	6.5	7.4	UP	9.0	UP
Walsh,B.	10.5	10.8	UP	8.7	DOWN
Suisham,S.	8.3	8.7	UP	8.6	UP
Gould,R.	8.2	8.4	UP	8.4	UP
Gano,G.	8.5	7.8	DOWN	8.2	DOWN
Succop,R.	7.2	8.9	UP	7.9	UP
Bironas,R.	7.3	9.8	UP	7.8	UP
Henery,A.	7.3	10.0	UP	7.7	UP
Bryant,M.	10.1	10.5	UP	7.6	DOWN
Zuerlein,G.	7.3	9.7	UP	7.6	UP
Nugent,M.	7.1	8.8	UP	7.4	UP
Hartley,G.	7.4	8.8	UP	8.4	UP
Bullock,R.	-	9.1	-	7.3	-	-
Janikowski,S.	8.4	9.8	UP	7.1	DOWN
Lindell,R.	6.9	7.2	UP	7.0	UP
Akers,D.	8.9	9.5	UP	6.8	DOWN
Cundiff,B.	8.2	7.2	DOWN	6.6	DOWN
Scobee,J.	6.6	7.8	UP	6.4	DOWN
Brown,J.	11.5	9.3	DOWN	6.3	DOWN
Forbath,K.	8.8	8.5	DOWN	6.6	DOWN
Sturgis,C.	-	8.5	-	6.6	-	-