How we did with our 2015 Fantasy Football Projections

On Average, since our inception in 1999, we have correctly projected the fantasy direction on approximately 75% of the players.

Last preseason, our software ranked DeVonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP. These are just a few examples of the many calls that helped subscribers win a championship in 2015.

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league (1 point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

2015: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 19 out of the top 30 = 63% correct

Running Backs:  35 out of top 40 = 88% correct

Wide Receivers: 46 out of top 60 = 77% correct

Tight Ends: 20 out of top 25 = 80% correct

Place Kickers: 15 out of the top 25 = 60% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position.  Previous Years 2014/13/12/11/10/09/08/07/06/05/04/03/02

A look back: 2015 Quarterback Projections - 63 % Success

	2014	2015		2015		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Newton,Ca	20.6	17.9	DOWN	27.2	UP
Brady,To	20.3	21.0	UP	24.7	UP
Wilson,Ru	22.6	19.1	DOWN	23.9	UP
Bortles,Bl	14.1	15.0	UP	23.0	UP
Palmer,Ca	20.3	16.0	DOWN	22.5	UP
Brees,Dr	22.4	18.6	DOWN	23.9	UP
Manning,El	20.1	17.1	DOWN	21.2	UP
Rodgers,Aa	25.0	21.2	DOWN	21.2	DOWN
Stafford,Ma	18.6	19.0	UP	21.0	UP
Rivers,Ph	19.6	16.8	DOWN	20.8	UP
Fitzpatrick,Ry	17.3	13.1	DOWN	20.5	UP
Carr,De	14.5	13.3	DOWN	19.7	UP
Tannehill,Ry	20.1	18.4	DOWN	19.0	DOWN
Smith,Al	17.3	14.9	DOWN	18.9	UP
Ryan,Ma	20.8	17.7	DOWN	18.0	DOWN
Dalton,An	16.3	17.8	UP	21.6	UP
Cutler,Ja	19.9	16.4	DOWN	18.1	DOWN
Roethlisberger,Be	22.5	19.3	DOWN	20.9	DOWN
Bradford,Sa	15.0	16.3	UP	17.0	UP
Bridgewater,Te	15.8	17.2	UP	14.8	DOWN
Hoyer,Br	13.7	16.5	UP	15.1	UP
Flacco,Jo	18.9	16.7	DOWN	19.2	UP
McCown,Jo	14.3	23.6	UP	20.2	UP
Luck,An	25.6	21.7	DOWN	21.4	DOWN
Kaepernick,Co	18.4	16.4	DOWN	14.0	DOWN
Foles,Ni	18.4	13.7	DOWN	7.4	DOWN
Manziel,Jo	2.3	7.3	UP	7.7	UP
Manning,Pe	22.5	19.6	DOWN	11.4	DOWN
Romo,To	20.6	18.2	DOWN	12.9	DOWN
Keenum,Ca	14.5	7.6	DOWN	3.7	DOWN

A look back: 2015 Running Back Projections - 88 % Success

	2014	2015		2015		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Freeman,De	3.7	7.9	UP	16.5	UP
Peterson,Ad	9.0	13.4	UP	14.8	UP
Martin,Do	6.2	9.8	UP	13.1	UP
Miller,La	11.9	10.7	DOWN	11.7	DOWN
Ivory,Ch	8.5	8.6	UP	11.0	UP
Forte,Ma	15.3	12.8	DOWN	13.1	DOWN
Murray,La	4.6	10.0	UP	10.4	UP
Gore,Fr	9.4	9.9	UP	10.3	UP
Woodhead,Da	2.3	6.2	UP	10.2	UP
McFadden,Da	5.4	6.8	UP	10.0	UP
Hill,Je	11.8	12.2	UP	10.0	DOWN
Ingram,Ma	12.7	9.1	DOWN	12.8	UP
Stewart,Jo	9.5	9.5	UP	11.6	UP
McCoy,Le	11.1	12.5	UP	12.4	UP
Murray,De	19.0	12.8	DOWN	9.6	DOWN
Jennings,Ra	10.1	8.1	DOWN	8.7	DOWN
Sims,Ch	5.5	4.8	DOWN	8.3	UP
Bernard,Gi	11.2	9.0	DOWN	8.3	DOWN
Lacy,Ed	14.7	13.4	DOWN	8.3	DOWN
Anderson,CJ	11.8	12.5	UP	7.5	DOWN
Crowell,Is	7.3	8.1	UP	7.4	UP
Blount,Le	5.6	8.4	UP	9.7	UP
Mathews,Ry	9.7	7.0	DOWN	8.5	DOWN
Johnson,Ch	5.8	6.2	UP	9.6	UP
Riddick,Th	4.4	4.5	UP	6.3	UP
Vereen,Sh	7.1	7.1	DOWN	6.2	DOWN
Blue,Al	5.1	7.3	UP	6.2	UP
Sproles,Da	7.2	5.0	DOWN	5.9	DOWN
Forsett,Ju	12.6	11.6	DOWN	9.1	DOWN
Bell,Le	18.0	13.5	DOWN	14.5	DOWN
Morris,Al	11.4	9.7	DOWN	5.4	DOWN
Charles,Ja	14.5	13.3	DOWN	16.8	UP
Bell,Jo	11.1	8.5	DOWN	6.4	DOWN
White,Ja	2.0	5.3	UP	5.9	UP
Hyde,Ca	4.6	11.3	UP	10.0	UP
Lynch,Ma	16.8	12.8	DOWN	9.7	DOWN
Randle,Jo	3.4	8.5	UP	10.7	UP
Ellington,An	11.3	9.4	DOWN	6.2	DOWN
Starks,Ja	3.7	4.4	UP	8.1	UP
Hillman,Ro	10.1	5.3	DOWN	8.7	DOWN

A look back: 2015 Wide Receiver Projections - 77 % Success

	2014	2015		2015		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Brown,An	15.6	12.2	DOWN	15.4	DOWN
Jones,Ju	13.0	10.8	DOWN	15.1	UP
Marshall,Br	9.2	8.4	DOWN	14.6	UP
Robinson,Al	6.7	8.4	UP	14.0	UP
Beckham Jr.,Od	17.2	12.2	DOWN	14.9	DOWN
Hopkins,De	9.8	9.7	DOWN	13.6	UP
Baldwin,Do	6.3	5.3	DOWN	11.9	UP
Green,AJ	10.8	10.4	DOWN	11.9	UP
Fitzgerald,La	6.4	7.3	UP	11.0	UP
Johnson,Ca	12.0	11.2	DOWN	11.0	DOWN
Decker,Er	8.4	7.5	DOWN	11.6	UP
Cooks,Br	8.6	9.6	UP	10.6	UP
Thomas,De	14.3	12.7	DOWN	10.4	DOWN
Hurns,Al	6.5	7.0	UP	10.9	UP
Watkins,Sa	8.4	9.1	UP	12.2	UP
Maclin,Je	12.1	8.9	DOWN	10.5	DOWN
Landry,Ja	6.6	7.0	UP	9.8	UP
Sanders,Em	12.4	9.6	DOWN	10.2	DOWN
Matthews,Jo	8.4	9.4	UP	9.2	UP
Crabtree,Mi	5.9	7.2	UP	9.1	UP
Austin,Ta	3.9	4.8	UP	9.0	UP
Brown,Jo	6.2	8.4	UP	9.0	UP
Hilton,TY	11.9	9.5	DOWN	8.9	DOWN
Ginn,Te	0.3	0.6	UP	9.3	UP
Evans,Mi	11.8	9.9	DOWN	9.3	DOWN
Jones,Ja	6.4	5.2	DOWN	8.6	UP
Cobb,Ra	12.8	11.1	DOWN	8.1	DOWN
Benjamin,Tr	3.2	4.3	UP	8.0	UP
Randle,Ru	7.0	6.1	DOWN	8.0	UP
Aiken,Ka	2.8	3.4	UP	7.8	UP
Bryant,Ma	10.4	7.0	DOWN	11.1	UP
Tate,Go	10.0	8.1	DOWN	7.6	DOWN
Floyd,Mi	7.5	8.4	UP	8.1	UP
Edelman,Ju	9.4	7.9	DOWN	12.6	UP
Moncrief,Do	4.0	4.4	UP	6.8	UP
Wheaton,Ma	4.9	7.5	UP	6.6	UP
Jeffery,Al	11.1	9.9	DOWN	11.6	UP
Boldin,An	8.6	7.1	DOWN	7.4	DOWN
Allen,Ke	7.3	7.7	UP	12.1	UP
Matthews,Ri	1.9	1.3	DOWN	8.2	UP
Smith,To	8.9	7.2	DOWN	5.6	DOWN
Washington,Na	4.8	3.6	DOWN	6.4	UP
Britt,Ke	5.9	5.5	DOWN	5.4	DOWN
Amendola,Da	1.6	5.6	UP	6.1	UP
Smith,St	8.9	7.7	DOWN	12.1	UP
Beasley,Co	4.1	4.6	UP	5.2	UP
Garcon,Pi	5.8	6.6	UP	7.3	UP
Jackson,De	10.3	8.7	DOWN	7.7	DOWN
Colston,Ma	7.5	7.1	DOWN	5.8	DOWN
Floyd,Ma	7.6	6.6	DOWN	4.9	DOWN
Woods,Ro	6.3	5.3	DOWN	5.2	DOWN
Brown,Co	3.9	4.8	UP	5.2	UP
Jackson,Vi	7.0	7.8	UP	7.2	UP
Shorts,Ce	4.8	4.9	UP	6.4	UP
Cotchery,Je	4.3	7.0	UP	4.9	UP
Johnson,St	4.8	6.8	UP	6.8	UP
Bryant,De	14.3	12.3	DOWN	6.5	DOWN
Adams,Da	3.9	8.5	UP	4.2	UP
Wallace,Mi	9.3	7.7	DOWN	3.7	DOWN
Wright,Ke	8.1	6.7	DOWN	6.4	DOWN
White,Ro	9.6	6.6	DOWN	3.5	DOWN

A look back: 2015 Tight End Projections - 80 % Success

	2014	2015		2015		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Gronkowski,Ro	12.3	10.3	DOWN	12.2	DOWN
Reed,Jo	4.3	6.0	UP	11.5	UP
Barnidge,Ga	1.2	3.4	UP	9.9	UP
Olsen,Gr	8.6	7.5	DOWN	9.5	UP
Walker,De	7.5	5.7	DOWN	9.9	UP
Eifert,Ty	4.0	6.2	UP	10.7	UP
Watson,Be	1.6	5.0	UP	7.4	UP
Kelce,Tr	7.8	7.7	DOWN	7.3	DOWN
Rodgers,Ri	2.2	5.7	UP	6.3	UP
Ertz,Za	5.5	6.4	UP	6.5	UP
Gates,An	9.6	5.9	DOWN	8.5	DOWN
Witten,Ja	6.3	6.6	UP	5.6	DOWN
Ebron,Er	2.4	4.2	UP	6.0	UP
Rudolph,Ky	3.9	6.0	UP	5.0	UP
Thomas,Ju	9.3	7.0	DOWN	6.3	DOWN
Graham,Ji	9.3	8.8	DOWN	6.6	DOWN
Tamme,Ja	1.5	5.5	UP	4.8	UP
Clay,Ch	5.6	6.0	UP	5.4	DOWN
Daniels,Ow	5.1	6.2	UP	4.4	DOWN
Fleener,Co	7.8	6.3	DOWN	4.5	DOWN
Green,La	1.6	5.4	UP	5.1	UP
Miller,He	5.9	5.4	DOWN	4.4	DOWN
Gillmore,Cr	1.2	5.3	UP	6.5	UP
Bennett,Ma	8.0	7.5	DOWN	5.6	DOWN
Seferian-Jenkins,Au	3.8	6.2	UP	8.3	UP

A look back: 2015 Kicker Projections - 60 % Success

	2014	2015		2015		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Gostkowski,St.	10.6	8.7	DOWN	10.7	UP
Gano,Gr.	8.3	7.0	DOWN	10.2	UP
Walsh,Bl.	7.8	6.7	DOWN	9.6	UP
Gould,Ro.	4.8	6.1	UP	9.4	UP
Brown,Jo.	8.0	7.4	DOWN	9.3	UP
Tucker,Ju.	8.8	7.7	DOWN	9.1	UP
Hauschka,St.	9.2	7.7	DOWN	9.1	DOWN
Santos,Ca.	7.6	7.0	DOWN	9.1	UP
McManus,Br.	5.0	6.8	UP	8.8	UP
Bailey,Da.	9.3	7.6	DOWN	8.2	DOWN
Nugent,Mi.	7.9	6.6	DOWN	8.2	UP
Vinatieri,Ad.	9.6	8.7	DOWN	7.8	DOWN
Crosby,Ma.	9.2	7.5	DOWN	7.8	DOWN
Prater,Ma.	8.7	4.8	DOWN	7.4	DOWN
Carpenter,Da.	9.5	8.6	DOWN	7.3	DOWN
Janikowski,Se.	6.3	6.3	UP	7.1	UP
Dawson,Ph.	7.8	7.8	UP	6.5	DOWN
Barth,Co.	13.0	3.9	DOWN	8.6	DOWN
Sturgis,C.	8.8	7.5	DOWN	7.5	DOWN
Zuerlein,Gr.	7.4	7.8	UP	6.9	DOWN
Novak,N.	7.3	7.3	UP	7.0	DOWN
Bullock,Ra.	9.1	7.6	DOWN	7.9	DOWN
Succop,Ry.	5.8	5.8	DOWN	5.0	DOWN
Bryant,Ma.	9.3	8.2	DOWN	7.4	DOWN
Forbath,K.	6.9	6.5	DOWN	6.5	DOWN