How we did with our 2017 Fantasy Football Projections

On Average, since our inception in 1999, we have correctly projected the fantasy direction on approximately 75% of the players.

Last season, our software ranked RB Latavius Murray (7 rounds ahead of his ADP), TE Zach Ertz, RB Kareem Hunt (3 rounds ahead), QB Russell Wilson and Cam Newton (2 rounds ahead). WR Golden Tate (2 rounds ahead), WR Tyreek Hill (1 round ahead), WR DaVante Adams (1 round ahead), WR Doug Baldwin (1 round ahead), TE Travis Kelce (1 round ahead), Leonard Fournette (1 round ahead).  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2017. These are just a few examples of the many calls that helped subscribers win a championship in 2017.

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league (1 point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

2017: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 21 out of the top 30 = 70% correct

Running Backs:  32 out of top 40 = 80% correct

Wide Receivers: 37 out of top 60 = 62% correct

Tight Ends: 23 out of top 30 = 77% correct

Place Kickers: 13 out of the top 25 = 56% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position.  Previous Years: 16/15/14/13/12/11/10/09/08/07/06/05/04/03/02

A look back: 2017 Quarterback Projections - 70 % Success

	2015	2016		2016		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Wilson,Ru	19.5	22.0	UP	24.4	UP
Brady,To	18.3	23.2	UP	21.5	UP
Smith,Al	17.5	15.6	DOWN	22.5	UP
Newton,Ca	19.3	21.7	UP	20.8	UP
Cousins,Ki	22.3	20.5	DOWN	20.6	DOWN
Stafford,Ma	20.3	20.7	UP	20.5	UP
Rivers,Ph	19.6	18.6	DOWN	19.8	UP
Wentz,Ca	15.8	23.5	UP	24.1	UP
Brees,Dr	24.5	22.3	DOWN	19.1	DOWN
Roethlisberger,Be	20.6	22.1	UP	20.1	DOWN
Prescott,Da	4.0	21.3	UP	18.7	UP
Goff,Ja	5.2	15.4	UP	20.0	UP
Bortles,Bl	19.8	17.2	DOWN	17.9	DOWN
Ryan,Ma	24.8	21.8	DOWN	17.2	DOWN
Keenum,Ca	10.4	2.4	DOWN	17.1	UP
Taylor,Ty	20.1	19.1	DOWN	17.0	DOWN
Dalton,An	19.3	19.7	UP	15.7	DOWN
Winston,Ja	18.9	25.9	UP	19.1	UP
Mariota,Ma	20.3	23.0	UP	16.3	DOWN
Carr,De	20.3	22.6	UP	16.2	DOWN
McCown,Jo	11.5	11.6	UP	18.7	UP
Manning,El	17.0	18.1	UP	14.5	DOWN
Flacco,Jo	17.7	16.5	DOWN	13.4	DOWN
Cutler,Ja	12.2	19.7	UP	13.2	UP
Siemian,Tr	16.3	15.3	DOWN	11.8	DOWN
Rodgers,Aa	26.8	56.2	UP	21.2	DOWN
Hundley,Br	-0.1	0.0	UP	9.0	UP
Fitzpatrick,Ry	10.8	1.0	DOWN	6.1	DOWN
Savage,To	2.0	10.7	UP	6.1	UP
Hoyer,Br	13.7	11.9	DOWN	4.9	DOWN

A look back: 2017 Running Back Projections - 80 % Success

	2016	2017		2017		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Gurley,To	12.5	15.2	UP	25.8	UP
Bell,Le	21.1	21.4	UP	23.1	UP
Gordon,Me	19.6	16.5	DOWN	18.0	DOWN
Ingram,Ma	15.1	11.3	DOWN	17.8	UP
McCoy,Le	19.8	16.2	DOWN	16.6	DOWN
Elliott,Ez	20.4	20.7	UP	20.5	UP
Howard,Jo	14.5	16.0	UP	12.6	DOWN
Hyde,Ca	15.1	13.6	DOWN	14.8	DOWN
Freeman,De	17.9	16.7	DOWN	14.4	DOWN
Lewis,Di	5.0	8.9	UP	12.3	UP
Miller,La	13.8	12.2	DOWN	12.1	DOWN
Collins,Al	3.2	1.1	DOWN	11.7	UP
Anderson,CJ	14.7	11.5	DOWN	10.9	DOWN
Johnson,Du	9.2	11.1	UP	13.8	UP
Gore,Fr	13.5	11.0	DOWN	10.9	DOWN
Murray,La	15.0	10.0	DOWN	9.8	DOWN
Coleman,Te	14.7	11.5	DOWN	11.2	DOWN
Murray,De	18.2	15.5	DOWN	11.6	DOWN
McKinnon,Je	9.7	4.6	DOWN	11.3	UP
Powell,Bi	12.4	13.1	UP	9.8	DOWN
Henry,De	7.1	9.5	UP	8.4	UP
Allen,Ja	1.0	0.5	DOWN	10.4	UP
Darkwa,Or	2.6	5.5	UP	9.1	UP
Thompson,Ch	9.4	7.9	DOWN	15.5	UP
Crowell,Is	13.0	12.0	DOWN	9.0	DOWN
Stewart,Jo	11.5	8.5	DOWN	8.2	DOWN
Ajayi,Ja	14.5	14.3	DOWN	9.9	DOWN
Drake,Ke	2.8	4.1	UP	9.0	UP
Bernard,Gi	12.4	8.9	DOWN	9.5	DOWN
Riddick,Th	16.2	9.9	DOWN	9.8	DOWN
Abdullah,Am	6.8	11.7	UP	9.0	UP
Burkhead,Re	4.9	7.6	UP	13.0	UP
Blount,Le	14.7	10.8	DOWN	6.8	DOWN
Forte,Ma	13.3	9.2	DOWN	10.3	DOWN
White,Ja	10.1	8.5	DOWN	9.6	DOWN
Peterson,Ad	2.2	10.9	UP	8.3	UP
Barber,Pe	2.4	4.1	UP	5.5	UP
Gillislee,Mi	8.4	11.9	UP	7.9	DOWN
Montgomery,Ty	9.5	13.9	UP	11.5	UP
Ivory,Ch	9.2	4.0	DOWN	5.9	DOWN
Morris,Al	2.9	5.4	UP	4.8	UP

A look back: 2017 Wide Receiver Projections - 62 % Success

	2016	2017		2017		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Hopkins,De	12.3	16.9	UP	20.8	UP
Brown,An	20.5	23.1	UP	22.0	UP
Allen,Ke	3.0	14.4	UP	17.8	UP
Hill,Ty	12.6	15.1	UP	16.1	UP
Jones,Ma	11.5	11.7	UP	14.1	UP
Jones,Ju	18.6	19.4	UP	15.8	DOWN
Green,AJ	18.6	17.2	DOWN	14.4	DOWN
Thomas,Mi	17.3	16.8	DOWN	16.2	DOWN
Cooks,Br	15.4	16.5	UP	13.7	DOWN
Thielen,Ad	12.3	12.8	UP	15.3	UP
Fitzgerald,La	15.4	13.8	DOWN	16.3	UP
Landry,Ja	14.6	12.8	DOWN	16.5	UP
Adams,Da	15.4	17.3	UP	15.9	UP
Baldwin,Do	15.6	16.4	UP	13.8	DOWN
Anderson,Ro	7.3	9.4	UP	12.5	UP
Diggs,St	13.8	15.1	UP	14.1	UP
Jeffery,Al	12.2	14.0	UP	11.9	DOWN
Tate,Go	13.9	14.1	UP	14.1	UP
Funchess,De	5.6	8.2	UP	12.2	UP
Agholor,Ne	5.7	9.8	UP	12.1	UP
Crowder,Ja	12.1	12.8	UP	12.1	DOWN
Evans,Mi	18.8	18.8	UP	13.4	DOWN
Thomas,De	14.3	15.2	UP	13.0	DOWN
Stills,Ke	10.6	9.4	DOWN	11.2	UP
Hilton,TY	17.0	15.8	DOWN	11.1	DOWN
Bryant,De	13.7	15.2	UP	11.8	DOWN
Goodwin,Ma	6.0	6.8	UP	10.6	UP
Kearse,Je	6.1	9.6	UP	11.0	UP
Cooper,Am	14.2	18.2	UP	11.3	DOWN
Crabtree,Mi	14.8	15.7	UP	12.0	DOWN
Woods,Ro	9.2	14.4	UP	13.8	UP
Sanu,Mo	9.9	10.7	UP	11.2	UP
Watkins,Sa	9.2	14.3	UP	9.7	UP
Ginn,Te	10.2	11.4	UP	10.7	UP
Richardson,Pa	3.7	6.0	UP	10.0	UP
Matthews,Ri	13.4	14.8	UP	11.1	DOWN
Wallace,Mi	12.6	13.2	UP	10.1	DOWN
Williams,Ty	13.6	12.1	DOWN	8.8	DOWN
Cobb,Ra	11.4	13.8	UP	10.5	DOWN
Benjamin,Tr	9.9	6.6	DOWN	7.8	DOWN
Lee,Ma	10.6	10.9	UP	10.4	DOWN
Jackson,De	12.1	11.4	DOWN	9.9	DOWN
Benjamin,Ke	12.4	16.0	UP	9.6	DOWN
Shepard,St	11.5	15.8	UP	13.2	UP
Fuller,Wi	8.1	15.3	UP	11.3	UP
Doctson,Jo	4.5	12.1	UP	7.5	UP
Nelson,Jo	19.2	18.7	DOWN	9.1	DOWN
Grant,Ry	1.1	0.8	DOWN	7.9	UP
Amendola,Da	6.0	12.0	UP	9.3	UP
Hogan,Ch	8.7	20.6	UP	12.2	UP
Wilson,Al	5.1	5.1	DOWN	8.9	UP
Lockett,Ty	8.3	11.1	UP	7.4	DOWN
Parker,De	10.3	17.6	UP	10.0	DOWN
LaFell,Br	11.6	7.6	DOWN	7.8	DOWN
Brown,Ja	5.1	5.7	UP	6.4	UP
Humphries,Ad	8.7	7.5	DOWN	8.2	DOWN
Thompson,De	3.7	4.3	UP	6.6	UP
Decker,Er	13.3	10.5	DOWN	7.3	DOWN
Hurns,Al	9.2	15.3	UP	9.9	UP
Williams,Te	7.9	8.6	UP	6.9	DOWN

A look back: 2017 Tight End Projections - 77 % Success
 

	2016	2017		2017		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Gronkowski,Ro	12.1	14.8	UP	17.3	UP
Kelce,Tr	13.7	13.8	UP	15.7	UP
Ertz,Za	13.1	11.9	DOWN	14.6	UP
Graham,Ji	12.1	12.2	UP	10.6	DOWN
Davis,Ve	7.1	6.5	DOWN	8.8	UP
Walker,De	12.5	12.0	DOWN	11.2	DOWN
Rudolph,Ky	13.1	11.9	DOWN	9.9	DOWN
Brate,Ca	11.4	8.7	DOWN	8.9	DOWN
Doyle,Ja	9.2	9.8	UP	11.5	UP
Witten,Ja	9.6	9.0	DOWN	9.3	DOWN
Kroft,Ty	1.4	3.4	UP	7.8	UP
Henry,Hu	8.8	10.0	UP	9.8	UP
Ebron,Er	11.1	10.5	DOWN	8.4	DOWN
Cook,Ja	7.4	7.8	UP	8.4	UP
Watson,Be	0.0	7.0	UP	8.6	UP
Hooper,Au	4.6	9.3	UP	7.5	UP
Clay,Ch	9.1	8.0	DOWN	9.0	DOWN
Lewis,Ma	4.3	4.9	UP	5.4	UP
Celek,Ga	5.1	4.2	DOWN	4.9	DOWN
Thomas,Ju	9.1	9.4	UP	7.0	DOWN
James,Je	5.7	8.5	UP	6.1	UP
Burton,Tr	5.1	4.5	DOWN	5.2	UP
Dickson,Ed	1.8	2.4	UP	5.0	UP
Gates,An	10.7	8.1	DOWN	5.0	DOWN
DeValve,Se	3.2	2.6	DOWN	5.3	UP
O'Leary,Ni	1.3	1.6	UP	4.4	UP
Anderson,St	2.0	2.3	UP	4.6	UP
Willson,Lu	3.3	3.3	DOWN	3.6	UP
Miller,Za	12.0	8.8	DOWN	7.0	DOWN
Higbee,Ty	1.6	5.3	UP	4.1	UP

A look back: 2016 Kicker Projections - 56 % Success

	2016	2017		2017		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Zuerlein,Gr.	5.2	8.7	UP	13.0	UP
Gould,Ro.	5.4	7.4	UP	10.0	UP
Gostkowski,St.	7.8	10.3	UP	9.9	UP
Boswell,Ch.	7.3	9.4	UP	9.6	UP
Tucker,Ju.	10.6	11.2	UP	9.1	DOWN
Prater,Ma.	8.2	9.8	UP	8.9	UP
Forbath,Ka.	9.8	9.1	DOWN	8.6	DOWN
Succop,Ry.	7.4	9.7	UP	8.6	UP
Bryant,Ma.	10.5	9.9	DOWN	8.6	DOWN
Gano,Gr.	8.8	9.4	UP	7.4	DOWN
Hauschka,St.	7.9	9.3	UP	7.3	DOWN
Dawson,Ph.	5.6	9.6	UP	7.3	UP
Catanzaro,Ch.	7.2	7.8	UP	7.1	DOWN
Vinatieri,Ad.	8.8	9.6	UP	6.7	DOWN
Walsh,Bl.	6.3	9.7	UP	6.5	UP
McManus,Br.	7.8	9.5	UP	6.4	DOWN
Crosby,Ma.	8.1	10.4	UP	5.0	DOWN
Bullock,Ra.	5.2	8.2	UP	4.9	DOWN
Parkey,Co.	6.4	9.3	UP	4.8	DOWN
Bailey,Da.	8.6	13.3	UP	5.4	DOWN
Barth,Co.	5.4	11.5	UP	5.7	UP
Myers,Ja.	8.1	25.0	UP	8.8	UP
Nugent,Mi.	6.5	4.7	DOWN	6.1	DOWN
Novak,Ni.	8.8	10.3	UP	6.6	DOWN
Santos,Ca.	8.7	30.3	UP	5.2	DOWN