Fantasy Football Projections 2021

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"Award Winning Fantistics .... Consider it fantasy's version of the theory of relativity."

How we did with our 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

On Average, since our inception in 1999, we have correctly projected the fantasy direction on 70-75% of the players.

Last season, our draft advisor ranked fantasy players: Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, Breece Hall, Travis Entienne, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook, Evan Engram, Sam Laporta, Dalton Kincaid, Chris Olave, Rashee Rice, Zay Flowers, Deebo Samuel, & Tank Dell ...two or more rounds ahead of their ADP, helping our subscribers win championships.

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league (1 point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control.

2023: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 18 out of the top 30 = 60% correct

Running Backs: 32 out of top 40 = 80% correct

Wide Receivers: 35 out of top 60 = 70% correct

Tight Ends: 22 out of top 30 = 73% correct

Place Kickers: 18 out of the top 25 = 68% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position.

23/22/21/20/19/18/17/16/15/14/13/12/1 1/10/09/08/07/06

A look back: 2023 Quarterback Projections - 60 % Success

2022 2023 2023 Projection

Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction

Josh Allen 26.3 21.5 DOWN 25.7 DOWN

Jalen Hurts 27.7 22.2 DOWN 23.8 DOWN

Dak Prescott 19.1 16.3 DOWN 22.8 UP

Lamar Jackson 21.8 19.2 DOWN 23.6 UP

Jordan Love 3.5 13.6 UP 21.3 UP

Brock Purdy 13.3 13.8 UP 21.4 UP

Jared Goff 19.5 15.7 DOWN 19.9 UP

Patrick Mahomes 27.2 22.3 DOWN 20.5 DOWN

Tua Tagovailoa 20.6 16.3 DOWN 19.2 DOWN

Baker Mayfield 12.3 10.8 DOWN 18.6 UP

Trevor Lawrence 20.5 17.7 DOWN 19.7 DOWN

Sam Howell 20.0 11.0 DOWN 17.5 DOWN

Russell Wilson 17.6 13.2 DOWN 19.6 UP

Derek Carr 16.9 13.8 DOWN 16.6 DOWN

Matthew Stafford 15.0 13.8 DOWN 18.6 UP

Justin Herbert 19.5 19.6 UP 20.4 UP

Geno Smith 20.9 16.1 DOWN 17.7 DOWN

Justin Fields 21.3 19.1 DOWN 20.3 DOWN

Gardner Minshew 9.0 1.3 DOWN 14.7 UP

Joshua Dobbs 14.5 0.0 DOWN 17.9 UP

Desmond Ridder 12.5 12.1 DOWN 14.4 UP

Kirk Cousins 19.8 16.1 DOWN 22.6 UP

Joe Burrow 23.6 20.4 DOWN 17.2 DOWN

Kyler Murray 20.0 12.6 DOWN 20.3 UP

Zach Wilson 13.0 2.7 DOWN 12.7 DOWN

Taysom Hill 8.0 5.3 DOWN 9.1 UP

Mac Jones 14.3 12.7 DOWN 12.0 DOWN

Ryan Tannehill 15.8 11.4 DOWN 9.6 DOWN

Deshaun Watson 16.2 16.0 DOWN 16.0 DOWN

Bailey Zappe 13.0 1.5 DOWN 8.4 DOWN

A look back: 2023 Running Back Projections - 80 % Success

2022 2023 2023 Projection

Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction

Christian McCaffrey 20.6 19.5 DOWN 24.7 UP

Breece Hall 16.7 11.6 DOWN 17.0 UP

Travis Etienne Jr. 12.3 12.5 UP 16.4 UP

Rachaad White 8.5 11.1 UP 16.0 UP

Raheem Mostert 10.6 8.0 DOWN 18.0 UP

Joe Mixon 16.1 12.2 DOWN 15.6 DOWN

Kyren Williams 3.1 4.2 UP 21.4 UP

Derrick Henry 19.1 14.9 DOWN 14.5 DOWN

James Cook 6.5 11.2 UP 13.9 UP

Alvin Kamara 14.7 11.4 DOWN 17.5 UP

Saquon Barkley 17.6 15.7 DOWN 16.1 DOWN

Tony Pollard 15.6 15.1 DOWN 13.1 DOWN

Isiah Pacheco 8.2 10.7 UP 15.4 UP

Jerome Ford 0.1 4.2 UP 12.4 UP

David Montgomery 11.4 9.4 DOWN 14.8 UP

James Conner 15.5 11.5 DOWN 15.5 DOWN

D'Andre Swift 13.5 10.5 DOWN 12.6 DOWN

Jaylen Warren 5.8 7.1 UP 11.8 UP

Brian Robinson Jr. 9.4 10.2 UP 13.3 UP

Kenneth Walker III 13.5 11.6 DOWN 13.3 DOWN

Najee Harris 13.4 12.9 DOWN 11.6 DOWN

Austin Ekeler 22.3 16.9 DOWN 13.8 DOWN

Gus Edwards 6.8 5.9 DOWN 11.1 UP

Josh Jacobs 19.4 13.8 DOWN 14.1 DOWN

Chuba Hubbard 6.0 6.2 UP 10.7 UP

Javonte Williams 11.0 11.6 UP 11.1 UP

Ezekiel Elliott 12.4 5.8 DOWN 10.4 DOWN

Zack Moss 5.2 7.3 UP 12.0 UP

Devin Singletary 10.8 6.6 DOWN 9.8 DOWN

Jonathan Taylor 13.8 11.1 DOWN 15.6 UP

Rhamondre Stevenson 14.8 13.3 DOWN 12.3 DOWN

Alexander Mattison 5.2 11.4 UP 8.6 UP

Aaron Jones 14.9 12.1 DOWN 12.4 DOWN

Tyler Allgeier 9.8 6.3 DOWN 8.0 DOWN

Antonio Gibson 11.1 8.6 DOWN 8.2 DOWN

Samaje Perine 8.9 7.0 DOWN 7.4 DOWN

Kareem Hunt 7.5 3.2 DOWN 7.9 UP

AJ Dillon 9.9 8.9 DOWN 7.8 DOWN

Khalil Herbert 9.1 10.6 UP 9.4 UP

Justice Hill 2.9 3.1 UP 7.0 UP

Ty Chandler 0.7 4.2 UP 5.9 UP

Kenneth Gainwell 5.2 7.4 UP 6.1 UP

Miles Sanders 13.0 11.0 DOWN 5.7 DOWN

A look back: 2023 Wide Receiver Projections - 73 % Success

2022 2023 2023 Projection

Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction

Evan Engram 10.3 10.2 DOWN 13.8 UP

Travis Kelce 18.6 13.3 DOWN 14.8 DOWN

T.J. Hockenson 12.5 11.2 DOWN 14.7 UP

David Njoku 10.3 9.1 DOWN 12.8 UP

George Kittle 13.5 11.3 DOWN 12.7 DOWN

Trey McBride 3.9 5.4 UP 10.7 UP

Cole Kmet 8.6 8.9 UP 10.7 UP

Jake Ferguson 3.0 3.4 UP 10.4 UP

Dalton Schultz 9.7 8.8 DOWN 10.2 UP

Kyle Pitts 7.6 9.9 UP 8.1 UP

Dallas Goedert 11.9 10.5 DOWN 9.7 DOWN

Mark Andrews 12.6 12.7 UP 13.5 UP

Logan Thomas 5.5 5.6 UP 8.1 UP

Jonnu Smith 3.7 4.3 UP 7.4 UP

Tyler Conklin 7.8 8.0 UP 7.2 DOWN

Hunter Henry 6.1 6.6 UP 8.6 UP

Cade Otton 5.8 6.0 UP 6.9 UP

Chigoziem Okonkwo 5.6 8.4 UP 6.7 UP

Darren Waller 9.4 10.8 UP 9.4 DOWN

Gerald Everett 8.6 7.2 DOWN 7.4 DOWN

Tyler Higbee 8.9 8.1 DOWN 7.2 DOWN

Isaiah Likely 5.7 5.1 DOWN 5.9 UP

Juwan Johnson 8.4 7.1 DOWN 7.5 DOWN

Durham Smythe 2.5 2.6 UP 4.5 UP

Noah Gray 4.1 7.4 UP 4.2 UP

Colby Parkinson 4.1 2.8 DOWN 3.6 DOWN

Adam Trautman 3.0 3.4 UP 3.6 UP

Josh Oliver 2.4 2.2 DOWN 3.3 UP

Dawson Knox 9.1 6.4 DOWN 4.4 DOWN

Zach Ertz 11.2 6.7 DOWN 7.4 DOWN

A look back: 2023 Tight End Projections - 73 % Success

A look back: 2023 Kicker Projections - 72 % Success

2022 2023 2023 Projection

Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction

Justin Tucker 9.7 10.6 UP 9.5 DOWN

Cairo Santos 6.4 8.1 UP 9.4 UP

Matt Gay 7.9 8.0 UP 9.3 UP

Jason Myers 9.4 9.8 UP 9.3 DOWN

Jake Elliott 7.3 8.6 UP 9.2 UP

Harrison Butker 6.2 8.8 UP 9.1 UP

Dustin Hopkins 4.0 8.1 UP 8.9 UP

Cameron Dicker 8.5 7.0 DOWN 8.9 UP

Jason Sanders 8.1 9.0 UP 8.6 UP

Brandon McManus 8.1 9.3 UP 8.6 UP

Greg Zuerlein 8.2 9.9 UP 8.5 UP

Evan McPherson 8.0 9.4 UP 8.2 UP

Younghoe Koo 9.1 9.0 DOWN 8.2 DOWN

Chase McLaughlin 8.6 8.6 DOWN 8.0 DOWN

Tyler Bass 8.7 9.3 UP 7.9 DOWN

Chris Boswell 7.5 8.6 UP 7.9 UP

Nick Folk 8.8 8.7 DOWN 7.8 DOWN

Wil Lutz 6.7 8.2 UP 7.7 UP

Matt Prater 5.9 7.4 UP 7.7 UP

Greg Joseph 8.2 8.9 UP 7.1 DOWN

Daniel Carlson 9.6 10.3 UP 7.1 DOWN

Ka'imi Fairbairn 7.8 8.8 UP 9.6 UP

Eddy Pineiro 8.7 8.6 DOWN 6.6 DOWN

Michael Badgley 8.4 4.0 DOWN 7.0 DOWN

Riley Patterson 8.3 9.0 UP 6.0 DOWN