2008: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*
Quarterbacks:
22 out of
the top 30 = 73% correct
Running Backs:40 out of
top 50 = 77% correct
Wide Receivers:
46 out
of top 60 = 72% correct
Tight Ends:
27 out of
top 30 = 77% correct
Place Kickers:
22 out of the top 30 = 73% correct
*Based on predicting whether or not a
player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed
listing of each player and position. (2007
/2006
/2005 /2004
/2003 /2002
Forecasting Results.)
The analysis below
measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The
focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting
whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than
the previous year. It
assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards
rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for
rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per
Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a
prognosticator's control.
A look back
at the 2008 Quarterback Projections -
76 % Success
|
|
2007 |
2008 |
2008 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Brady,T |
21.4 |
20.5 |
DOWN |
12.0 |
DOWN |
 |
|
Romo,T |
21.4 |
20.5 |
DOWN |
19.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Manning,P |
19.8 |
19.6 |
DOWN |
18.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brees,D |
19.4 |
19.4 |
UP |
22.2 |
UP |
|
|
Roethlisberger,B |
19.7 |
18.1 |
DOWN |
14.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Palmer,C |
17.0 |
17.6 |
UP |
11.2 |
DOWN |
 |
|
Cutler,J |
15.8 |
16.7 |
UP |
20.1 |
UP |
|
|
Anderson,D |
18.3 |
16.4 |
DOWN |
10.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Hasselbeck,M |
18.5 |
16.2 |
DOWN |
9.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Hasselbeck,M |
18.5 |
16.2 |
DOWN |
9.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Manning,E |
14.5 |
16.0 |
UP |
14.6 |
UP |
|
|
McNabb,D |
18.0 |
15.7 |
DOWN |
18.3 |
UP |
|
|
Favre,B |
18.2 |
15.6 |
DOWN |
14.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Warner,K |
18.0 |
15.5 |
DOWN |
20.1 |
UP |
|
|
Kitna,J |
15.1 |
15.4 |
UP |
12.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Garrard,D |
18.0 |
15.4 |
DOWN |
16.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Rivers,P |
13.8 |
15.3 |
UP |
20.2 |
UP |
|
|
Campbell,J |
14.3 |
15.1 |
UP |
14.6 |
UP |
|
|
Rodgers,A |
9.0 |
15.0 |
UP |
20.8 |
UP |
|
|
Schaub,M |
12.3 |
14.5 |
UP |
19.2 |
UP |
|
|
Bulger,M |
11.3 |
14.4 |
UP |
10.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Delhomme,J |
21.3 |
13.4 |
DOWN |
13.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Young,V |
12.5 |
13.2 |
UP |
4.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Croyle,B |
8.3 |
12.8 |
UP |
3.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Edwards,T |
9.8 |
12.6 |
UP |
13.5 |
UP |
|
|
Russell,J |
4.8 |
12.4 |
UP |
11.8 |
UP |
|
|
Jackson,T |
12.7 |
12.2 |
DOWN |
14.1 |
UP |
|
|
Orton,K |
10.7 |
11.3 |
UP |
14.7 |
UP |
|
|
Ryan,M |
0.0 |
10.8 |
UP |
14.4 |
UP |
|
|
O'Sullivan,J |
1.5 |
10.7 |
UP |
11.8 |
UP |
|
|
A look back
at the 2008 Running Back Projections -
77 % Success
|
|
2007 |
2008 |
2008 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Tomlinson,L |
18.9 |
20.8 |
UP |
14.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Peterson,A |
15.9 |
17.9 |
UP |
15.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jackson,S |
10.2 |
16.7 |
UP |
15.9 |
UP |
|
|
Westbrook,B |
18.8 |
16.4 |
DOWN |
15.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Addai,J |
14.6 |
16.1 |
UP |
9.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gore,F |
11.9 |
14.7 |
UP |
13.5 |
UP |
|
|
Barber III,M |
12.4 |
14.3 |
UP |
12.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Lynch,M |
11.5 |
14.1 |
UP |
12.6 |
UP |
|
|
Portis,C |
28.9 |
13.9 |
DOWN |
14.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,L |
6.2 |
13.7 |
UP |
10.8 |
UP |
|
|
Grant,R |
79.0 |
12.9 |
DOWN |
10.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jones-Drew,M |
10.7 |
12.9 |
UP |
13.9 |
UP |
|
|
McFadden,D |
0.0 |
11.4 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Jacobs,B |
10.3 |
11.3 |
UP |
15.6 |
UP |
|
|
Lewis,J |
13.8 |
11.2 |
DOWN |
8.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
McGahee,W |
13.7 |
11.0 |
DOWN |
9.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Turner,M |
3.0 |
11.0 |
UP |
17.3 |
UP |
|
|
Bush,R |
8.5 |
10.8 |
UP |
12.0 |
UP |
|
|
Stewart,J |
0.0 |
10.3 |
UP |
9.3 |
UP |
|
|
Forte,M |
0.0 |
10.0 |
UP |
15.2 |
UP |
|
|
Young,S |
6.8 |
9.9 |
UP |
4.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Maroney,L |
9.4 |
9.7 |
UP |
3.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Parker,W |
10.0 |
9.6 |
DOWN |
10.0 |
UP |
|
|
Jones,T |
9.1 |
9.4 |
UP |
15.1 |
UP |
|
|
Williams,R |
0.1 |
9.4 |
UP |
7.7 |
UP |
|
|
Johnson,C |
0.0 |
9.2 |
UP |
13.9 |
UP |
|
|
Graham,E |
11.4 |
9.2 |
DOWN |
10.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
James,E |
11.6 |
9.2 |
DOWN |
6.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Smith,K |
0.0 |
9.2 |
UP |
10.9 |
UP |
|
|
Taylor,F |
10.4 |
9.1 |
DOWN |
5.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Perry,C |
0.0 |
9.0 |
UP |
4.2 |
UP |
|
|
Williams,D |
9.2 |
8.8 |
DOWN |
17.7 |
UP |
|
|
Brown,R |
9.9 |
8.4 |
DOWN |
11.4 |
UP |
|
|
Morris,M |
7.1 |
8.3 |
UP |
6.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Rice,R |
0.0 |
8.0 |
UP |
6.1 |
UP |
|
|
Mendenhall,R |
0.0 |
7.8 |
UP |
2.5 |
UP |
|
|
Green,A |
3.6 |
7.7 |
UP |
6.3 |
UP |
|
|
Jones,F |
0.0 |
7.7 |
UP |
9.1 |
UP |
|
|
Jones,J |
5.7 |
7.6 |
UP |
6.2 |
UP |
|
|
White,L |
12.6 |
7.6 |
DOWN |
10.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
McAllister,D |
0.7 |
7.5 |
UP |
7.0 |
UP |
|
|
Johnson,R |
5.3 |
7.4 |
UP |
3.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Hightower,T |
0.0 |
7.3 |
UP |
7.7 |
UP |
|
|
Slaton,S |
0.0 |
7.3 |
UP |
14.1 |
UP |
|
|
Bradshaw,A |
1.7 |
7.3 |
UP |
4.7 |
UP |
|
|
Fargas,J |
9.0 |
7.2 |
DOWN |
6.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Norwood,J |
6.8 |
7.1 |
UP |
7.4 |
UP |
|
|
Hall,A |
2.7 |
6.6 |
UP |
2.8 |
UP |
|
|
Bennett,M |
4.2 |
6.6 |
UP |
0.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Washington,L |
4.7 |
6.4 |
UP |
8.0 |
UP |
|
|
Taylor,C |
10.3 |
6.2 |
DOWN |
7.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jackson,B |
3.1 |
6.0 |
UP |
3.8 |
UP |
|
|
|
A look back
at the 2008 Wide Receiver Projections -
77 % Success
|
|
2007 |
2008 |
2008 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Moss,R |
22.1 |
14.8 |
DOWN |
10.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Owens,T |
14.1 |
14.2 |
UP |
10.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Wayne,R |
13.2 |
13.2 |
UP |
9.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Edwards,B |
14.1 |
13.1 |
DOWN |
6.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Fitzgerald,L |
15.5 |
13.0 |
DOWN |
13.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Houshmandzadeh,T |
13.4 |
12.8 |
DOWN |
8.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,A |
8.3 |
12.7 |
UP |
12.8 |
UP |
|
|
Colston,M |
13.3 |
12.7 |
DOWN |
10.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Marshall,B |
12.0 |
12.4 |
UP |
10.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,C |
7.4 |
11.3 |
UP |
12.8 |
UP |
|
|
Burress,P |
11.7 |
10.7 |
DOWN |
7.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Boldin,A |
8.8 |
10.7 |
UP |
14.7 |
UP |
|
|
Smith,S |
10.6 |
10.4 |
DOWN |
13.0 |
UP |
|
|
Welker,W |
10.6 |
10.4 |
DOWN |
8.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,C |
12.3 |
10.4 |
DOWN |
6.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Harrison,M |
1.9 |
10.3 |
UP |
6.2 |
UP |
|
|
White,R |
9.8 |
10.2 |
UP |
11.3 |
UP |
|
|
Holmes,S |
9.0 |
10.2 |
UP |
7.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jennings,G |
11.7 |
10.1 |
DOWN |
11.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Holt,T |
10.1 |
9.5 |
DOWN |
6.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Williams,R |
7.1 |
9.4 |
UP |
4.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Burleson,N |
7.8 |
9.2 |
UP |
12.0 |
UP |
|
|
Cotchery,J |
8.1 |
9.2 |
UP |
7.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Crayton,P |
7.0 |
9.1 |
UP |
5.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Berrian,B |
8.3 |
9.1 |
UP |
10.1 |
UP |
|
|
Bowe,D |
7.7 |
9.1 |
UP |
9.0 |
UP |
|
|
Moss,S |
7.1 |
8.8 |
UP |
10.1 |
UP |
|
|
Ward,H |
8.3 |
8.7 |
UP |
9.2 |
UP |
|
|
Coles,L |
6.3 |
8.7 |
UP |
8.0 |
UP |
|
|
Evans,L |
7.2 |
8.1 |
UP |
8.1 |
UP |
|
|
Driver,D |
7.3 |
8.1 |
UP |
8.2 |
UP |
|
|
Rice,S |
4.3 |
8.1 |
UP |
3.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Chambers,C |
7.6 |
8.0 |
UP |
6.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Walter,K |
6.7 |
7.7 |
UP |
8.8 |
UP |
|
|
Jackson,D |
0.0 |
7.6 |
UP |
7.3 |
UP |
|
|
Galloway,J |
8.6 |
7.5 |
DOWN |
2.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Ginn Jr.,T |
3.6 |
7.4 |
UP |
6.9 |
UP |
|
|
Brown,R |
6.6 |
7.2 |
UP |
5.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Royal,E |
0.0 |
7.2 |
UP |
9.3 |
UP |
|
|
Stallworth,D |
7.4 |
7.1 |
DOWN |
2.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Henderson,D |
4.7 |
7.1 |
UP |
7.1 |
UP |
|
|
Muhammad,M |
4.7 |
6.9 |
UP |
7.6 |
UP |
|
|
Jackson,V |
5.0 |
6.8 |
UP |
10.6 |
UP |
|
|
Mason,D |
8.7 |
6.8 |
DOWN |
8.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Walker,J |
1.8 |
6.6 |
UP |
3.7 |
UP |
|
|
Meachem,R |
0.0 |
6.6 |
UP |
6.9 |
UP |
|
|
Branch,D |
6.4 |
6.5 |
UP |
8.2 |
UP |
|
|
Gonzalez,A |
5.1 |
6.4 |
UP |
5.7 |
UP |
|
|
Henry,C |
3.5 |
6.3 |
UP |
3.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gage,J |
10.9 |
6.1 |
DOWN |
9.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Porter,J |
26.8 |
6.0 |
DOWN |
3.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Northcutt,D |
6.7 |
6.0 |
DOWN |
5.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Curry,R |
6.0 |
6.0 |
UP |
3.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
McDonald,S |
8.2 |
6.0 |
DOWN |
4.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jackson,D |
5.2 |
6.0 |
UP |
2.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,B |
4.1 |
5.9 |
UP |
5.6 |
UP |
|
|
Hardy,J |
0.0 |
5.9 |
UP |
5.2 |
UP |
|
|
Clayton,M |
3.3 |
5.9 |
UP |
7.2 |
UP |
|
|
Engram,B |
21.6 |
5.9 |
DOWN |
4.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Hester,D |
2.6 |
5.8 |
UP |
6.0 |
UP |
|
|
|
A look back at the 2008 Tight End Projections
- 72% Success
|
|
2007 |
2008 |
2008 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Witten,J |
9.8 |
9.0 |
DOWN |
8.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gates,A |
9.5 |
8.8 |
DOWN |
7.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Winslow,K |
8.8 |
8.8 |
DOWN |
6.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gonzalez,T |
9.8 |
8.3 |
DOWN |
10.4 |
UP |
|
|
Cooley,C |
7.9 |
8.2 |
UP |
5.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Clark,D |
10.9 |
7.8 |
DOWN |
8.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Shockey,J |
5.4 |
6.4 |
UP |
4.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Miller,Z |
4.1 |
5.8 |
UP |
5.6 |
UP |
|
|
Scheffler,T |
6.5 |
5.7 |
DOWN |
6.9 |
UP |
|
|
Heap,T |
1.9 |
5.7 |
UP |
4.4 |
UP |
|
|
Daniels,O |
6.8 |
5.6 |
DOWN |
6.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Miller,H |
6.2 |
5.5 |
DOWN |
5.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Crumpler,A |
4.6 |
5.5 |
UP |
2.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Lee,D |
6.3 |
5.3 |
DOWN |
4.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Watson,B |
5.8 |
5.2 |
DOWN |
3.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Lewis,M |
3.4 |
5.2 |
UP |
4.4 |
UP |
|
|
Olsen,G |
3.4 |
5.1 |
UP |
5.8 |
UP |
|
|
Davis,V |
7.5 |
5.0 |
DOWN |
3.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Keller,D |
0.0 |
4.9 |
UP |
5.1 |
UP |
|
|
Boss,K |
1.6 |
4.7 |
UP |
6.8 |
UP |
|
|
King,J |
4.4 |
4.6 |
UP |
1.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
McMichael,R |
3.8 |
4.6 |
UP |
3.8 |
UP |
|
|
Utecht,B |
2.8 |
4.6 |
UP |
1.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Smith,L |
1.9 |
4.3 |
UP |
4.0 |
UP |
|
|
Clark,D |
4.9 |
4.3 |
DOWN |
2.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Carlson,J |
0.0 |
4.2 |
UP |
6.2 |
UP |
|
|
Pope,L |
3.4 |
3.9 |
UP |
1.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Stevens,J |
3.9 |
3.6 |
DOWN |
4.6 |
UP |
|
|
Baker,C |
3.7 |
3.6 |
DOWN |
1.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Smith,A |
4.1 |
3.4 |
DOWN |
4.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Graham,D |
3.1 |
3.3 |
UP |
4.5 |
UP |
|
|
Shiancoe,V |
5.4 |
3.3 |
DOWN |
6.4 |
UP |
|
|
Scaife,B |
3.4 |
3.2 |
DOWN |
4.3 |
UP |
|
|
Fasano,A |
1.3 |
3.0 |
UP |
6.7 |
UP |
|
|
Gaines,M |
2.1 |
2.9 |
UP |
2.9 |
UP |
|
|
Royal,R |
2.7 |
2.8 |
UP |
3.2 |
UP |
|
|
Franks,B |
1.9 |
2.7 |
UP |
1.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Miller,B |
4.5 |
2.6 |
DOWN |
5.3 |
UP |
|
|
Campbell,D |
0.0 |
2.6 |
UP |
2.1 |
UP |
|
|
Martin,D |
3.8 |
2.4 |
DOWN |
4.1 |
UP |
|
|
Walker,D |
3.3 |
2.2 |
DOWN |
2.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
|
A look back at the 2008 Place Kicker Projections
- 73% Success
|
|
2007 |
2008 |
2008 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Gould,R. |
8.6 |
9.7 |
UP |
7.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Folk,N. |
8.4 |
9.3 |
UP |
7.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gostkowski,S. |
8.8 |
9.2 |
UP |
9.9 |
UP |
|
|
Kaeding,N. |
7.7 |
9.1 |
UP |
8.3 |
UP |
|
|
Vinatieri,A. |
7.4 |
8.9 |
UP |
6.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Graham,S. |
8.5 |
8.9 |
UP |
6.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Crosby,M. |
9.0 |
8.4 |
DOWN |
8.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Reed,J. |
7.3 |
8.2 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Rackers,N. |
6.8 |
8.1 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Bironas,R. |
8.4 |
8.1 |
DOWN |
9.0 |
UP |
|
|
Kasay,J. |
6.3 |
8.0 |
UP |
8.9 |
UP |
|
|
Akers,D. |
6.7 |
7.9 |
UP |
9.3 |
UP |
|
|
Lindell,R. |
6.0 |
7.9 |
UP |
8.7 |
UP |
|
|
Hanson,J. |
7.9 |
7.9 |
DOWN |
6.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brown,J. |
8.1 |
7.9 |
DOWN |
8.4 |
UP |
|
|
Dawson,P. |
7.8 |
7.8 |
DOWN |
7.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Stover,M. |
7.2 |
7.7 |
UP |
7.7 |
UP |
|
|
Elam,J. |
7.6 |
7.7 |
UP |
8.8 |
UP |
|
|
Mare,O. |
4.0 |
7.4 |
UP |
7.0 |
UP |
|
|
Mehlhaff,T. |
0.0 |
7.3 |
UP |
6.3 |
UP |
|
|
Prater,M. |
0.3 |
7.3 |
UP |
8.1 |
UP |
|
|
Longwell,R. |
6.7 |
6.9 |
UP |
9.1 |
UP |
|
|
Suisham,S. |
14.1 |
6.9 |
DOWN |
7.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Nedney,J. |
4.9 |
6.7 |
UP |
8.3 |
UP |
|
|
Scobee,J. |
4.1 |
6.6 |
UP |
5.9 |
UP |
|
|
Janikowski,S. |
5.8 |
6.6 |
UP |
6.6 |
UP |
|
|
Novak,N. |
0.0 |
34.3 |
UP |
6.8 |
UP |
|
|
Gramatica,M. |
2.9 |
5.6 |
UP |
7.6 |
UP |
|
|
Brown,K. |
7.0 |
5.2 |
DOWN |
8.5 |
UP |
|
|
Bryant,M. |
7.8 |
5.2 |
DOWN |
8.3 |
UP |
|
|
|
