How we did with our 2016 Fantasy Football Projections

On Average, since our inception in 1999, we have correctly projected the fantasy direction on approximately 75% of the players.

Last season, our software ranked DeMarco Murray 2 rounds ahead of his consensus ADP. Rookie RB Jordan Howard, 6 rounds ahead of his ADP, despite not having a starting job when the season started. Top-20 wide receivers  Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate  2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight Ends Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce, 1 round ahead of their ADP. These are just a few examples of the many calls that helped subscribers win a championship in 2016.

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league (1 point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

2016: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 22 out of the top 30 = 73% correct

Running Backs:  30 out of top 40 = 75% correct

Wide Receivers: 49 out of top 60 = 82% correct

Tight Ends: 21 out of top 30 = 70% correct

Place Kickers: 16 out of the top 25 = 64% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position.  Previous Years: 15/14/13/12/11/10/09/08/07/06/05/04/03/02

A look back: 2016 Quarterback Projections - 73 % Success

	2015	2016		2016		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Rodgers,Aa	21.2	23.4	UP	26.8	UP
Ryan,Ma	18.0	18.0	DOWN	24.8	UP
Brees,Dr	23.9	22.1	DOWN	24.5	UP
Luck,An	21.4	22.0	UP	22.3	UP
Cousins,Ki	21.1	19.9	DOWN	22.2	UP
Stafford,Ma	21.0	19.5	DOWN	20.3	DOWN
Bortles,Bl	23.0	20.6	DOWN	19.8	DOWN
Rivers,Ph	20.8	19.4	DOWN	19.6	DOWN
Wilson,Ru	23.9	22.4	DOWN	19.5	DOWN
Dalton,An	21.6	18.7	DOWN	19.3	DOWN
Mariota,Ma	20.3	19.8	DOWN	20.3	DOWN
Carr,De	19.7	19.4	DOWN	20.2	UP
Winston,Ja	19.9	19.9	UP	19.0	DOWN
Taylor,Ty	21.5	19.4	DOWN	20.1	DOWN
Brady,To	24.7	21.6	DOWN	18.3	DOWN
Palmer,Ca	22.5	20.6	DOWN	19.4	DOWN
Newton,Ca	27.2	25.0	DOWN	19.3	DOWN
Roethlisberger,Be	20.9	22.0	UP	20.6	DOWN
Flacco,Jo	19.2	20.6	UP	17.7	DOWN
Manning,El	21.3	19.1	DOWN	17.0	DOWN
Bradford,Sa	17.0	13.5	DOWN	16.9	DOWN
Smith,Al	18.9	17.3	DOWN	17.5	DOWN
Siemian,Tr	0.0	12.2	UP	16.3	UP
Kaepernick,Co	14.0	0.0	DOWN	14.2	UP
Tannehill,Ry	19.0	17.5	DOWN	17.3	DOWN
Osweiler,Br	8.6	19.3	UP	12.5	UP
Fitzpatrick,Ry	20.5	19.1	DOWN	10.8	DOWN
Keenum,Ca	3.7	5.2	UP	10.4	UP
Gabbert,Bl	10.1	12.1	UP	8.2	DOWN
Hoyer,Br	15.2	0.0	DOWN	13.7	DOWN

A look back: 2016 Running Back Projections - 75 % Success

	2015	2016		2016		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Johnson,Da	11.0	18.5	UP	20.7	UP
McCoy,Le	12.4	14.8	UP	16.4	UP
Murray,De	9.6	15.0	UP	15.2	UP
Bell,Le	14.5	16.0	UP	16.2	UP
Freeman,De	16.5	15.3	DOWN	14.5	DOWN
Blount,Le	9.8	9.6	DOWN	14.2	UP
Gordon,Me	5.9	13.2	UP	16.4	UP
Ingram,Ma	12.8	15.9	UP	12.3	DOWN
Ajayi,Ja	3.8	11.0	UP	12.7	UP
Gore,Fr	10.3	13.1	UP	11.1	UP
Murray,La	10.4	14.2	UP	12.7	UP
Hyde,Ca	10.0	14.9	UP	13.0	UP
Crowell,Is	7.4	11.5	UP	10.5	UP
Ware,Sp	7.0	10.7	UP	11.9	UP
Miller,La	11.7	15.9	UP	11.6	DOWN
Coleman,Te	3.9	8.2	UP	12.3	UP
Gurley,To	14.6	18.6	UP	9.8	DOWN
Forte,Ma	13.2	13.8	UP	11.1	DOWN
Hill,Je	9.9	14.0	UP	10.4	UP
Stewart,Jo	11.6	12.4	UP	11.0	DOWN
Powell,Bi	8.0	7.7	DOWN	8.8	UP
West,Te	3.1	7.5	UP	8.6	UP
Mathews,Ry	8.5	14.2	UP	10.1	UP
Michael,Ch	2.9	10.6	UP	7.8	UP
Gillislee,Mi	9.6	4.7	DOWN	7.8	DOWN
Sproles,Da	5.9	9.6	UP	7.4	UP
Riddick,Th	6.3	10.3	UP	10.9	UP
Hightower,Ti	9.3	8.1	DOWN	6.6	DOWN
McKinnon,Je	3.9	7.4	UP	6.9	UP
Jennings,Ra	8.8	12.3	UP	8.0	DOWN
Asiata,Ma	1.5	4.4	UP	6.4	UP
White,Ja	5.9	9.4	UP	6.4	UP
Thompson,Ch	4.5	8.0	UP	6.3	UP
Johnson,Du	6.4	10.6	UP	5.9	DOWN
Yeldon,TJ	10.0	12.2	UP	6.0	DOWN
Anderson,CJ	7.5	14.9	UP	12.4	UP
Bernard,Gi	8.3	11.5	UP	8.5	UP
Turbin,Ro	2.5	7.6	UP	5.5	UP
Williams,De	12.1	10.0	DOWN	9.1	DOWN
Draughn,Sh	4.6	5.4	UP	5.1	UP

A look back: 2016 Wide Receiver Projections - 82 % Success

	2015	2016		2016		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Evans,Mi	9.3	11.4	UP	12.8	UP
Brown,An	15.4	15.8	UP	13.4	DOWN
Beckham Jr,Od	14.9	14.4	DOWN	12.4	DOWN
Hilton,TY	8.9	10.6	UP	11.3	UP
Jones,Ju	15.1	15.0	DOWN	12.6	DOWN
Adams,Da	4.2	4.4	UP	10.7	UP
Cooks,Br	10.6	10.9	UP	11.1	UP
Baldwin,Do	11.9	10.7	DOWN	10.0	DOWN
Matthews,Ri	8.3	7.0	DOWN	9.3	UP
Crabtree,Mi	9.1	7.8	DOWN	9.3	UP
Williams,Ty	2.1	4.4	UP	9.2	UP
Cooper,Am	8.9	11.4	UP	9.1	UP
Landry,Ja	9.8	9.3	DOWN	8.7	DOWN
Fitzgerald,La	11.0	8.6	DOWN	8.7	DOWN
Thomas,De	10.4	10.0	DOWN	8.6	DOWN
Pryor,Te	1.3	5.1	UP	8.4	UP
Edelman,Ju	12.7	8.6	DOWN	8.4	DOWN
Sanders,Em	10.1	8.4	DOWN	8.4	DOWN
Tate,Go	7.6	9.5	UP	8.3	UP
Bryant,De	6.4	14.3	UP	10.2	UP
Britt,Ke	5.4	6.6	UP	8.7	UP
Wallace,Mi	3.8	6.0	UP	8.1	UP
Thielen,Ad	1.5	6.9	UP	8.0	UP
Stills,Ke	0.3	6.0	UP	7.9	UP
Crowder,Ja	3.3	5.4	UP	7.9	UP
Jackson,De	7.7	8.8	UP	8.3	UP
Robinson,Al	14.0	12.3	DOWN	7.8	DOWN
Garcon,Pi	7.3	9.4	UP	7.6	UP
LaFell,Br	4.7	5.9	UP	7.6	UP
Green,AJ	11.9	19.3	UP	12.0	UP
Snead,Wi	7.8	8.7	UP	8.0	UP
Hopkins,De	13.6	12.4	DOWN	7.5	DOWN
Meredith,Ca	1.0	1.0	UP	8.4	UP
Jones,Ma	6.8	9.5	UP	7.8	UP
Beasley,Co	5.3	4.9	DOWN	7.1	UP
Enunwa,Qu	2.7	9.0	UP	7.1	UP
Lee,Ma	2.9	2.8	DOWN	7.0	UP
Smith,St	12.1	8.3	DOWN	7.9	DOWN
Diggs,St	7.5	9.3	UP	7.8	UP
Ginn,Te	9.3	5.9	DOWN	6.8	DOWN
Nelson,JJ	3.8	2.6	DOWN	7.1	UP
Boldin,An	7.4	5.3	DOWN	6.7	DOWN
Gabriel,Ta	1.8	8.5	UP	8.1	UP
Inman,Do	4.8	6.9	UP	6.6	UP
Montgomery,Ty	4.5	7.4	UP	6.6	UP
Matthews,Jo	9.3	11.1	UP	7.0	DOWN
Parker,De	4.5	9.7	UP	6.6	UP
Marshall,Br	14.6	13.0	DOWN	6.4	DOWN
Jeffery,Al	11.7	15.3	UP	7.8	DOWN
Hogan,Ch	3.6	6.3	UP	6.2	UP
Benjamin,Tr	8.0	8.5	UP	6.5	DOWN
Austin,Ta	9.1	5.5	DOWN	6.1	DOWN
Sanu,Mo	3.7	7.1	UP	6.0	UP
Cobb,Ra	8.1	11.9	UP	6.8	DOWN
Kerley,Je	1.8	4.8	UP	5.3	UP
Williams,Te	6.4	6.1	DOWN	5.2	DOWN
Lockett,Ty	6.5	3.7	DOWN	5.5	DOWN
Floyd,Mi	8.1	9.5	UP	5.3	DOWN
Humphries,Ad	2.5	5.5	UP	5.1	UP
Quick,Br	0.8	2.2	UP	4.7	UP

A look back: 2016 Tight End Projections - 70 % Success
 

	2015	2016		2016		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Kelce,Tr	7.4	8.3	UP	8.5	UP
Graham,Ji	6.6	6.9	UP	8.0	UP
Rudolph,Ky	5.0	5.6	UP	7.9	UP
Olsen,Gr	9.5	9.2	DOWN	7.8	DOWN
Walker,De	9.9	8.1	DOWN	8.2	DOWN
Brate,Ca	3.4	3.3	DOWN	7.6	UP
Bennett,Ma	5.6	6.5	UP	7.1	UP
Ertz,Za	6.5	7.9	UP	7.5	UP
Reed,Jo	11.5	9.1	DOWN	8.7	DOWN
Gates,An	8.5	7.5	DOWN	6.9	DOWN
Doyle,Ja	0.8	2.1	UP	5.5	UP
Fleener,Co	4.5	7.8	UP	5.5	UP
Witten,Ja	5.6	5.6	UP	5.3	DOWN
Ebron,Er	6.0	6.4	UP	6.4	UP
Fiedorowicz,CJ	1.4	4.4	UP	5.3	UP
Clay,Ch	5.5	5.7	UP	5.3	DOWN
Allen,Dw	1.4	6.2	UP	5.5	UP
Barnidge,Ga	9.9	8.1	DOWN	4.6	DOWN
Miller,Za	4.9	6.7	UP	7.3	UP
Gronkowski,Ro	12.3	11.7	DOWN	9.0	DOWN
Davis,Ve	2.7	2.0	DOWN	4.4	UP
McDonald,Va	3.6	6.2	UP	5.7	UP
Kendricks,La	2.5	1.4	DOWN	3.9	UP
Griffin,Ry	4.1	2.6	DOWN	3.5	DOWN
Walford,Cl	3.2	5.9	UP	3.6	UP
James,Je	1.5	5.3	UP	3.2	UP
Gresham,Je	1.9	3.2	UP	3.2	UP
Sims,Di	1.5	1.4	DOWN	3.5	UP
Toilolo,Le	0.3	0.2	DOWN	2.4	UP
Tye,Wi	4.9	5.0	UP	2.8	DOWN
Cook,Ja	3.0	6.6	UP	4.4	UP
Tamme,Ja	4.8	4.9	UP	4.9	UP

A look back: 2016 Kicker Projections - 64 % Success

	2015	2016		2016		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Tucker,Ju.	9.1	10.5	UP	10.6	UP
Bryant,Ma.	7.4	7.4	DOWN	10.5	UP
Sturgis,Ca.	7.5	8.8	UP	9.4	UP
Gano,Gr.	10.2	9.7	DOWN	8.8	DOWN
Novak,Ni.	7.0	7.7	UP	8.8	UP
Vinatieri,Ad.	7.8	9.8	UP	8.8	UP
Hopkins,Du.	8.3	9.0	UP	8.7	UP
Santos,Ca.	9.1	9.9	UP	8.7	DOWN
Bailey,Da.	8.2	10.2	UP	8.6	UP
Prater,Ma.	7.4	8.8	UP	8.2	UP
Crosby,Ma.	7.8	9.4	UP	8.1	UP
Janikowski,Se.	7.1	8.3	UP	8.5	UP
Hauschka,St.	9.1	10.7	UP	7.9	DOWN
Lambo,Jo.	7.8	9.2	UP	7.9	UP
Franks,An.	4.9	7.7	UP	7.9	UP
Myers,Ja.	6.1	8.4	UP	7.9	UP
McManus,Br.	8.8	9.9	UP	7.8	DOWN
Gostkowski,St.	10.7	11.5	UP	7.8	DOWN
Succop,Ry.	5.0	7.5	UP	7.4	UP
Catanzaro,Ch.	8.9	9.7	UP	7.2	DOWN
Boswell,Ch.	10.5	10.7	UP	7.3	DOWN
Barth,Co.	8.6	4.4	DOWN	5.4	DOWN
Folk,Ni.	8.1	7.7	DOWN	6.8	DOWN
Carpenter,Da.	7.3	8.5	UP	6.3	DOWN
Dawson,Ph.	6.5	9.8	UP	5.6	DOWN