How we did with our 2024 Fantasy Football Projections

On Average, since our inception in 1999, we have correctly projected the fantasy direction on 70-75% of the players.

Last season, our draft advisor ranked fantasy players: Jared Goff, Jayden Daniels, Justin Herbert, James Cook, Bucky Irving, Tyrone Tracy, Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas, Jerry Jeudy, Brock Bowers, & Jonnu Smith...several rounds ahead of their ADP, helping our subscribers win championships.

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league (1 point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

2024: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 18 out of the top 30 = 75% correct

Running Backs:  32 out of top 40 = 70% correct

Wide Receivers: 35 out of top 60 = 69% correct

Tight Ends: 22 out of top 30 = 70% correct

Place Kickers: 18 out of the top 25 = 70% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position.

 24/23/22/21/20/19/18/17/16/15/14/13/12/11/10/09/08/07/06

A look back: 2024 Quarterback Projections - 75 % Success

	2023	2024		2024		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Lamar Jackson	23.6	19.9	DOWN	28.2	UP	Wrong
Joe Burrow	17.2	17.5	UP	25.4	UP	Right
Josh Allen	25.8	21.0	DOWN	24.6	DOWN	Right
Baker Mayfield	18.6	14.7	DOWN	24.3	UP	Wrong
Jared Goff	19.9	17.0	DOWN	21.7	UP	Wrong
Sam Darnold	2.8	12.7	UP	21.1	UP	Right
Jalen Hurts	23.8	20.8	DOWN	23.6	DOWN	Right
Kyler Murray	20.3	17.6	DOWN	20.1	DOWN	Right
Patrick Mahomes	20.5	20.4	DOWN	20.1	DOWN	Right
Justin Herbert	20.4	16.8	DOWN	18.9	DOWN	Right
Brock Purdy	21.4	17.1	DOWN	20.8	DOWN	Right
Geno Smith	17.7	13.1	DOWN	18.2	UP	Wrong
Aaron Rodgers	0.0	13.8	UP	17.4	UP	Right
C.J. Stroud	21.5	19.0	DOWN	15.6	DOWN	Right
Jordan Love	21.4	17.4	DOWN	17.5	DOWN	Right
Matthew Stafford	18.6	14.6	DOWN	16.0	DOWN	Right
Bryce Young	12.1	13.3	UP	15.9	UP	Right
Kirk Cousins	22.6	15.3	DOWN	15.4	DOWN	Right
Tua Tagovailoa	19.2	17.1	DOWN	19.1	DOWN	Right
Russell Wilson	19.6	12.7	DOWN	18.7	DOWN	Right
Anthony Richardson	19.0	19.6	UP	16.9	DOWN	Wrong
Derek Carr	16.6	12.9	DOWN	17.0	UP	Wrong
Trevor Lawrence	19.7	16.7	DOWN	16.2	DOWN	Right
Daniel Jones	11.3	13.5	UP	16.0	UP	Right
Will Levis	14.0	14.4	UP	12.6	DOWN	Wrong
Jameis Winston	2.5	2.8	UP	12.4	UP	Right
Dak Prescott	22.8	18.4	DOWN	17.3	DOWN	Right
Justin Fields	20.3	9.8	DOWN	13.2	DOWN	Right
Cooper Rush	0.6	0.0	DOWN	11.0	UP	Wrong
Joe Flacco	23.4	1.5	DOWN	15.6	DOWN	Right
Gardner Minshew II	14.7	11.9	DOWN	12.2	DOWN	Right
Mac Jones	12.0	1.8	DOWN	11.5	DOWN	Right
Aidan O'Connell	13.8	2.3	DOWN	12.6	DOWN	Right

A look back: 2024 Running Back Projections - 70 % Success

	2023	2024		2024		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Jahmyr Gibbs	16.3	16.4	UP	21.5	UP	Right
Saquon Barkley	16.1	15.7	DOWN	22.0	UP	Wrong
Bijan Robinson	14.8	17.6	UP	20.0	UP	Right
Derrick Henry	14.0	13.7	DOWN	19.9	UP	Wrong
De'Von Achane	17.5	13.5	DOWN	17.6	UP	Wrong
Josh Jacobs	14.1	12.6	DOWN	17.6	UP	Wrong
Kyren Williams	21.4	13.6	DOWN	17.4	DOWN	Right
James Cook	13.9	14.0	UP	16.7	UP	Right
Alvin Kamara	17.5	12.7	DOWN	19.0	UP	Wrong
Chase Brown	4.5	9.6	UP	15.9	UP	Right
James Conner	15.5	15.7	UP	15.7	UP	Right
Aaron Jones	12.5	13.0	UP	14.6	UP	Right
Jonathan Taylor	15.6	15.8	UP	17.6	UP	Right
Chuba Hubbard	10.8	7.2	DOWN	16.4	UP	Wrong
Breece Hall	17.0	18.4	UP	15.1	DOWN	Wrong
Joe Mixon	15.6	16.0	UP	17.2	UP	Right
David Montgomery	14.8	10.5	DOWN	16.0	UP	Wrong
D'Andre Swift	12.6	10.7	DOWN	12.5	DOWN	Right
Rachaad White	16.0	12.3	DOWN	12.9	DOWN	Right
Najee Harris	11.6	12.0	DOWN	12.0	UP	Right
Tony Pollard	13.1	10.9	DOWN	12.7	DOWN	Right
Rico Dowdle	5.8	8.9	UP	12.6	UP	Right
J.K. Dobbins	12.0	9.6	DOWN	14.8	UP	Wrong
Zach Charbonnet	6.6	7.5	UP	11.0	UP	Right
Kenneth Walker III	13.3	13.5	UP	16.5	UP	Right
Rhamondre Stevenson	12.3	12.3	DOWN	11.9	DOWN	Right
Brian Robinson Jr.	13.3	10.7	DOWN	11.7	DOWN	Right
Javonte Williams	11.1	11.2	UP	9.5	DOWN	Wrong
Kareem Hunt	7.9	2.0	DOWN	12.0	UP	Wrong
Alexander Mattison	8.6	5.1	DOWN	9.8	UP	Wrong
Jerome Ford	12.4	10.0	DOWN	9.6	DOWN	Right
Austin Ekeler	13.8	10.3	DOWN	11.0	DOWN	Right
Travis Etienne Jr.	16.4	13.9	DOWN	8.8	DOWN	Right
Tank Bigsby	1.6	4.2	UP	8.2	UP	Right
Jaylen Warren	11.8	10.8	DOWN	8.4	DOWN	Right
Jordan Mason	2.6	4.9	UP	9.8	UP	Right
Tyjae Spears	9.1	10.5	UP	9.5	UP	Right
Tyler Allgeier	8.0	4.3	DOWN	6.1	DOWN	Right
Antonio Gibson	8.2	5.7	DOWN	6.1	DOWN	Right
Zack Moss	12.0	10.8	DOWN	10.5	DOWN	Right

A look back: 2024 Wide Receiver Projections - 69 % Success

	2023	2024		2024		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Ja'Marr Chase	16.4	18.2	UP	23.7	UP	Right
Amon-Ra St. Brown	20.8	17.5	DOWN	18.7	DOWN	Right
Justin Jefferson	20.4	17.2	DOWN	18.7	DOWN	Right
Drake London	10.8	14.3	UP	16.5	UP	Right
Terry McLaurin	12.3	12.8	UP	15.9	UP	Right
CeeDee Lamb	23.8	19.8	DOWN	17.6	DOWN	Right
Garrett Wilson	12.8	15.6	UP	14.9	UP	Right
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	8.8	10.8	UP	14.9	UP	Right
Courtland Sutton	12.3	9.8	DOWN	14.3	UP	Wrong
Mike Evans	16.6	13.7	DOWN	17.2	UP	Wrong
Davante Adams	15.6	13.8	DOWN	17.1	UP	Wrong
Ladd McConkey	#N/A	9.7	#N/A	14.9	#N/A	#N/A
DJ Moore	17.0	13.5	DOWN	14.0	DOWN	Right
Jerry Jeudy	8.9	9.6	UP	13.9	UP	Right
Tee Higgins	11.5	12.3	UP	18.7	UP	Right
Tyreek Hill	23.6	19.2	DOWN	12.8	DOWN	Right
A.J. Brown	17.3	16.1	DOWN	16.7	DOWN	Right
Jakobi Meyers	13.4	9.7	DOWN	14.4	UP	Wrong
Jordan Addison	13.0	9.9	DOWN	14.2	UP	Wrong
Jameson Williams	6.7	10.2	UP	14.1	UP	Right
Nico Collins	17.2	14.0	DOWN	17.6	UP	Wrong
Jauan Jennings	4.0	2.1	DOWN	14.0	UP	Wrong
Zay Flowers	12.8	13.2	UP	12.3	DOWN	Wrong
Puka Nacua	17.6	14.4	DOWN	18.8	UP	Wrong
Calvin Ridley	13.4	12.5	DOWN	11.8	DOWN	Right
DeVonta Smith	14.4	13.8	DOWN	15.3	UP	Wrong
Jayden Reed	13.4	12.1	DOWN	11.7	DOWN	Right
DK Metcalf	14.1	13.3	DOWN	13.0	DOWN	Right
Darnell Mooney	5.3	9.2	UP	12.1	UP	Right
Keenan Allen	21.2	11.8	DOWN	12.3	DOWN	Right
Josh Downs	9.2	7.6	DOWN	13.1	UP	Wrong
Wan'Dale Robinson	8.9	8.1	DOWN	10.7	UP	Wrong
Khalil Shakir	6.6	10.2	UP	12.2	UP	Right
Cooper Kupp	13.5	13.4	DOWN	14.6	UP	Wrong
Quentin Johnston	5.5	7.7	UP	11.6	UP	Right
Rashod Bateman	4.8	7.3	UP	10.3	UP	Right
Michael Pittman Jr.	15.5	14.1	DOWN	10.5	DOWN	Right
George Pickens	12.3	13.3	UP	11.9	DOWN	Wrong
Alec Pierce	5.6	6.1	UP	10.1	UP	Right
Deebo Samuel Sr.	16.3	12.8	DOWN	10.4	DOWN	Right
Jalen Tolbert	3.6	5.6	UP	8.9	UP	Right
DeMario Douglas	7.8	8.8	UP	8.7	UP	Right
DeAndre Hopkins	13.2	10.3	DOWN	9.2	DOWN	Right
Jaylen Waddle	14.2	13.0	DOWN	9.7	DOWN	Right
Tank Dell	15.0	12.2	DOWN	10.0	DOWN	Right
Romeo Doubs	10.2	8.9	DOWN	10.0	DOWN	Right
Marvin Mims Jr.	4.3	7.4	UP	7.6	UP	Right
Tre Tucker	4.5	7.2	UP	7.6	UP	Right
Michael Wilson	8.7	9.4	UP	7.9	DOWN	Wrong
Amari Cooper	15.1	12.4	DOWN	8.8	DOWN	Right

A look back: 2024 Tight End Projections - 70 % Success

	2023	2024		2024		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Trey McBride	10.7	12.3	UP	15.6	UP	Right
George Kittle	12.7	11.0	DOWN	15.8	UP	Wrong
Jonnu Smith	7.4	6.6	DOWN	13.2	UP	Wrong
Travis Kelce	14.7	12.5	DOWN	12.3	DOWN	Right
Mark Andrews	13.5	10.7	DOWN	11.1	DOWN	Right
Sam LaPorta	13.8	12.8	DOWN	10.9	DOWN	Right
Zach Ertz	7.4	2.4	DOWN	10.2	UP	Wrong
Pat Freiermuth	6.3	9.2	UP	10.1	UP	Right
Tucker Kraft	4.6	6.0	UP	9.6	UP	Right
Hunter Henry	8.6	6.2	DOWN	9.1	UP	Wrong
David Njoku	12.8	9.9	DOWN	13.1	UP	Wrong
Mike Gesicki	3.8	6.9	UP	8.4	UP	Right
Cade Otton	6.9	6.9	UP	10.2	UP	Right
Kyle Pitts	8.1	10.2	UP	7.7	DOWN	Wrong
Isaiah Likely	5.9	6.4	UP	7.9	UP	Right
Juwan Johnson	7.5	6.2	DOWN	7.2	DOWN	Right
Tyler Conklin	7.2	8.7	UP	7.5	UP	Right
Cole Kmet	10.6	9.2	DOWN	7.0	DOWN	Right
Dalton Schultz	10.2	8.5	DOWN	7.0	DOWN	Right
Chig Okonkwo	6.6	7.2	UP	6.7	UP	Right
Noah Gray	4.2	3.7	DOWN	6.7	UP	Wrong
Austin Hooper	2.8	4.0	UP	6.5	UP	Right
Will Dissly	2.5	2.8	UP	7.3	UP	Right
Jake Ferguson	10.4	10.7	UP	7.7	DOWN	Wrong
Noah Fant	4.6	6.4	UP	7.4	UP	Right
Dallas Goedert	9.7	9.6	DOWN	10.4	UP	Wrong
Foster Moreau	3.1	3.3	UP	6.1	UP	Right
Brenton Strange	1.1	1.1	UP	5.5	UP	Right
Jordan Akins	1.6	2.0	UP	5.4	UP	Right
Evan Engram	13.8	11.9	DOWN	9.9	DOWN	Right
T.J. Hockenson	14.7	9.4	DOWN	8.7	DOWN	Right
Josh Oliver	3.2	3.8	UP	4.4	UP	Right
Colby Parkinson	3.6	6.3	UP	3.8	UP	Right
Grant Calcaterra	0.5	1.1	UP	3.5	UP	Right

A look back: 2023 Kicker Projections - 70 % Success

	2023	2024		2024		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Chris Boswell	7.9	9.3	UP	11.2	UP	Right
Cameron Dicker	8.9	10.0	UP	10.7	UP	Right
Ka'imi Fairbairn	9.6	9.5	DOWN	10.2	UP	Wrong
Jason Sanders	8.6	8.7	UP	9.9	UP	Right
Chase McLaughlin	8.0	9.0	UP	9.8	UP	Right
Wil Lutz	7.7	9.1	UP	9.4	UP	Right
Tyler Bass	7.9	9.4	UP	8.9	UP	Right
Daniel Carlson	7.1	8.5	UP	8.6	UP	Right
Justin Tucker	9.5	0.0	DOWN	8.5	DOWN	Right
Jason Myers	9.3	9.6	UP	8.4	DOWN	Wrong
Jake Elliott	9.2	9.6	UP	8.4	DOWN	Wrong
Matt Gay	9.3	8.5	DOWN	8.2	DOWN	Right
Blake Grupe	8.8	9.5	UP	7.8	DOWN	Wrong
Chad Ryland	4.8	5.0	UP	9.7	UP	Right
Joey Slye	6.2	7.6	UP	7.1	UP	Right
Younghoe Koo	8.2	9.7	UP	8.6	UP	Right
Jake Moody	7.8	9.2	UP	7.0	DOWN	Wrong
Cairo Santos	9.4	9.0	DOWN	6.5	DOWN	Right
Eddy Pineiro	6.6	8.2	UP	6.4	DOWN	Wrong
Nick Folk	7.8	7.6	DOWN	6.4	DOWN	Right