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Hi Folks, It's getting close to that magical time of the year. The camps are open: Are you ready for some football?!? Throughout the preseason we'll be discussing Player Projection changes, Camp Developments, Player Box Scores (preseason games), and Fantasy Strategy. The goal is to express our rationale as we update our player projections software program with the most up to date player intelligence. Stay Tuned!  -Anthony

Player Injury CautionRookieIdeaFYIHot Player


8/22/2016

Austin Hooper - Atlanta Falcons, Round 3, 81st overall pick out of Stanford

NFL Outlook:  Hooper scored a respectable six touchdowns in 2015 before entering the NFL draft although his career numbers don’t jump off the page.  In two seasons he recorded 74 catches for 937 yards in 24 games and at 6’4” he is one of the shortest tight ends entering the NFL this year although he is athletic enough to overcome a few inches in height and is expected to be a run blocker as well as a pass catcher meaning he can stay on the field in any situation.  He draws comparisons to another Stanford tight end in Zach Ertz who is emerging as a starting tight end in fantasy.

Dynasty Outlook:  In a year or two Hooper should be the clear cut starter in Atlanta and with the players he’s been compared to he could easily be a starting fantasy tight end in a couple of years.  Hooper is the safest tight end in rookie drafts after Henry Hunter and is a player worth stashing behind a solid veteran as there is a good track record of Stanford tight ends doing well in the NFL in recent years.

Re-Draft Outlook:  Hooper may have the clearest path to playing time in 2016 as only Jacob Tamme stands in his way and Tamme isn’t a superstar by any means.  Coming from Stanford means Hooper is a smart guy and is apparently picking up the offense well although he will be behind Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Devonta Freeman in the passing pecking order even in the best case scenario.

2016 Prediction per Software:  36 Receptions, 415 Yards, 5 TD

Fantistics James Adams takes a look at the top Rookie Tight Ends in this year's draft  in our member section today.

Player InjuryLewis,Dion - NE/RB: Lewis was previously thought to be recovering nicely from a torn ACL he suffered in the middle of last season but he suffered some type of setback that requires another “cleanup” procedure on his left knee. Local media reports speculate that he will be out 8-10 weeks which mean a late season return. His draft value is nil at this point but will increase greatly in PPR leagues during the last quarter of the season.

Player InjuryJones,Matt - WAS/RB: Jones suffered a separated AC joint in his shoulder during the Skins’ matchup with the NY Jets. This might shelf Jones for the rest of the preseason which is a bummer since the team is depending on him as its main RB. As a result of his injury, Chris Thompson and Keith Marshall will get more reps and possibly could be in the mix come the regular season if Jones isn’t back to full health. If Jones recovers nicely he remains a low end RB2/high end RB3 depending on what format you are in.

FYI
Cruz,Victor - NYG/WR: Cruz will return to practice Monday after battling a groin injury suffered at the very beginning of training camp. While not a full contact practice, the team will determine how far Cruz’s rehab has gone and when he can actually return. A lot of fantasy owners are staying completely away which makes sense because of how the last year and a half has gone, and as a result the stock of rookie Sterling Shepard has shot up. This trend could continue depending on how Monday goes.

FYI
Langford,Jeremy - CHI/RB: Langford was seen wearing a walking boot during the Bears game against the Patriots but returned to practice Sunday without wearing it. He had a strong game – rushing eight times for 55 yards and one TD so he looks to be headed into the season as a strong RB1 despite the presence of impressive rookie Jordan Howard who also had a good game – rushing 11 times for 46 yards. The injury could have been a game changer (and a bad one for Langford) but looks to be a nonissue after Sunday.

FYI
Davis,Mike - SF/RB: After a superb preseason opener against Denver last week, Davis was rising up the fantasy ladder and making a case as an RB4/5 but his chances took a hit after a disastrous Saturday game against Denver. He rushed five times for 26 years but lose two fumbles – both big time drive killers. The Niners actually fumbled five times in the game so expect some ball security drills upcoming. DuJuan Harris rushed seven times for 46 yards and also looks strong but lost one fumble as well. One RB will emerge as Carlos Hyde’s complement and despite his travails, Davis still has the edge.

Conley,Chris - KC/WR: The second year receiver starter led the Chiefs in receiving Saturday night against Los Angeles as he caught three passes for 66 yards. Conley logged some playing time late last season as injuries decimated the Chiefs receiving core, and looked okay despite how raw he was. He is 6’3” and runs a 4.3 x 40 so he could be beast if it all comes together. He is flying way under the radar in the fantasy world but is third on KC’s depth chart but more importantly Head Coach Andy Reid finally figured out late last season that KC will not go anywhere without throwing the ball down the field and not the horizontal way because of Alex Smith’s questionable arm strength. Smith looked better than most thought he would throwing the ball deeper more regularly which bodes well for a burner like Conley.

McDonald,Vance - SF/TE: McDonald’s stock is quickly rising following his play in both of the Niners’ games this preseason. Against Denver Saturday night he caught three passes for 38 yards on four targets, once again showing the chemistry he has with the Niners’ most likely starting QB Blaine Gabbert. He would have had four catches if the ball thrown by Gabbert wasn’t thrown so hard which was too bad because it would have been a big gainer. McDonald will be a strong TE2 but consider that he is injury prone (has missed 11 games in three years).

Sanchez,Mark - DEN/QB: Sanchez was the odds on favorite to win the starting QB job in Denver but hurt those chances with his performance Saturday night against San Francisco. He had two inexcusable fumbles on three sacks which aided the Niners in a preseason victory on the road. He did not complete a TD pass but did throw 10 of 17 for 120 yards. Rookie Paxton Lynch looked better than Sanchez and Trevor Siemian so who knows who will line up under center come September.

Player InjuryElliott,Ezekiel - DAL/RB: Elliott’s hamstring appears to be getting better as the team hopes for him to see some action against Seattle this coming Thursday. The rookie has not seen any preseason action thus far but is still being drafted extremely high in dozens of leagues I have surveyed. The hype thus far has resulted in him being a Top 5 pick in many of those leagues which just blows my mind. I guess the thought is behind a brilliant offensive line and his obviously potential, he will be a rookie on the level of Eric Dickerson or Adrian Peterson. It is possible but we should factor in proven veteran Alfred Morris who could be designated goal line back and limit his output.

Player InjuryReed,Jordan - WAS/TE: The oft injured though talented TE did not play in Washington’s game against the NY Jets because of a lingering sprained thumb injury. Reed is being drafted as a TE1 which he is but his average drafted position is lower than it should be because of his injury history. He has missed seven games the last two years because of injury but was also ineffective in many others. With Kirk Cousins on fire late last year, Reed was a fantasy star (11 total TDs) which is what his owners are hoping for again.

Player InjuryHilton,TY - IND/WR: After tweaking his hamstring in the preseason opener last week against Buffalo, Hilton was held out again versus Baltimore this past Saturday. We all know the drills with hamstrings – they only get better with rest. There is no need to push Hilton until he feels comfortable enough to run on it because an injury like this can linger indefinitely. Hilton was drafted as a WR1 last year after a spectacular 2014 but his stock fell (as did the entire Indy offense) with a poor 2015 and is now being drafted as a W2 in most leagues.

Player InjuryBridgewater,Teddy - MIN/QB: The team finally confirmed over the weekend that Bridgewater was held out of last Thursday’s game because of a sore shoulder. He still hasn’t practiced throwing since but should be soon as the team is just being overly cautious. Bridgewater was a fantasy star on the rise at the beginning of last season but he failed taking his game to the next level as his 2nd year numbers were nearly identical to his rookie numbers where he started four less games. He is being drafted as a low end QB2 in larger league formats but the hope is Laquan Treadwell will help him overcome his shoddy passing output.

Player InjuryNelson,Jordy - GB/WR: Nelson is working on getting his knee back to playing shape but will most likely not participate in any preseason games this year. The Packers are being especially cautious considering he had a setback when training camp first started but he is practicing with the offense on a daily basis. Nelson’s injury last year caused the Packers explosiveness to become nonexistent and has also caused his draft stock to tumble this year. It is a gamble but if he comes back 100%, he will be a steal because he is a legit WR1.

Player InjuryGreen,Ladarius - PIT/TE: The curious case of Ladarius Green hopefully reached a conclusion this weekend when he confirmed to local media that he remains on the Steelers’ PUP list because of his ankle. He said he continues to rehab his ankle and dismissed various reports that have speculated he is considering retirement due to head issues (i.e. concussions). Before his ankle issues came up, Green was considered a TE sleeper that had the potential to be a low end TE1/high end TE2 in a Steelers offense that has always been TE friendly near the goal line. Now, his stock will continue to drop until he gets onto the practice field and into a game soon.

Player Injury
Brown,John - ARI/WR: Brown had been dealing with the after effects of a concussion but was cleared to practice Sunday. The speedy complement to Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd has been out of commission since the start of training camp so this is great news. Brown caught 65 passes for 1,003 yards and seven TDs last year, and is expected to put up the same type of numbers in 2016 which would make him a superb WR3 in most formats and a borderline WR2 in larger league formats. He has a great YPR average because of his speed (career YPR average for 15.0) and the great thing about Arizona’s offense is Head Coach Bruce Arians is arguably the most aggressive playcaller in the league, taking a few deep shots in each game is essentially a requirement.

Notes prepared by Fantistics   Jasbir Singh

 

8/21/2016

Rookie WR Will Fuller is a name to know in this year's draft. Fuller got the start in his second preseason game, and came through with 17 fantasy points: 73 yards / 4 receptions/ 8 targets / 1 TD. He's about as unheralded as any 1st round talent (18th round ADP), but other fantasy owners will know his name before long.

WR Will Fuller Houston Texas (1st round/21st overall – Notre Dame)

College: Fuller declared for the NFL draft after his junior year which would have seemed impossible to believe if you saw him as a freshman that barely played – catching six passes for 160 yards and one TD. His fortunes changed following an aggressive offseason approach prior to his sophomore year which opened the eyes of the Notre Dame coaching staff. He ended up catching 76 passes for 1,094 yards and 15 TDs (amounting to an 84.2 YPR average per game). He caught six or more passes on seven occasions and scored at least one TD in all but two games. He actually caught less passes and TDs during his junior season but his receiving yardage and YPR average exploded – as he developed into one of the NCAA’s most explosive burners. He caught 62 passes for 1,258 yards and 14 TDs (20.3 YPR!) and registered seven 100-yard receiving games. Fuller scored 30 TDs during his time in South Bend – second in Fighting Irish history behind current Arizona WR Michael Floyd who totaled 37. Notre Dame never had the type of QB that really took full advantage of what Fuller offered but a good offensive scheme made Fuller look indefensible.

NFL Outlook: Fuller is going to a very nice situation where he will be asked to help elite teammate DeAndre Hopkins avoid double teams. After the Texans’ embarrassing playoff loss to Kansas City, ownership made the decision to upgrade its QB, RB and WR positions so that they will never be considered predictable again. In comes strong armed former Bronco Brock Osweiler as QB and underrated stud RB Lamar Miller – both of whom will keep opposing defenses on their toes. In all likelihood, the Texans will lean on Miller at first to get an idea of what Osweiler will be best at. At some point he will let it rip and it will be at that time Fuller could be a big time threat with so much attention being paid to Hopkins and Miller. Now, Osweiler is unproven as a big time starter, but look at the type of year Hopkins had last year with a cavalcade of journeymen QBs such as Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett and Brandon Weeden at the helm. If Hopkins can excel with arms like this, he will not suffer any type of production drop off and will continue to thrive. Fuller will have to battle veterans such as Cecil Shorts and Jaelen Strong for playing time but he is such a speed merchant, that shouldn’t be too difficult. A rookie like Fuller will not get the respect reserved for a dynamic veteran so he will see a lot of opportunities at the outset when he is on the field. He will however have trouble, due to his slender frame when it comes to crossing patterns so he will need to prove his toughness early or defenses will have fun with him.

Fantasy Outlook: In dynasty leagues that I have surveyed, Fuller was the second highest taken receiver in most leagues, most likely because a lot of owners feel the big free agent acquisitions on offense will result in a much more explosive Texans offense. Fuller being drafted so highly also shows how little faith owners have put in QBs such as RGIII and Teddy Bridgewater. In standard non-keeper drafts, he will be drafted as a fourth or fifth receiver which is about right. Despite all his speed, negatives such as spotty hands and the veteran WRs in front of him will slow down his development at first and could relegate him to early bench time. A strong preseason could change that but an NFL offense is hard to grasp, especially compared to a college level offense that was tailored to the strengths of a backup quarterback. The bottom line in regards to Fuller is he was brought in to stretch the field and will do so, but the question remains – when will it happen in an offensive scheme that will be so different than last year?  Current 18th round ADP, Fantistics 14th Round Value.

Fantistics Jason Singh takes a look at the top 10 Rookie Wide Receivers in this year's draft  in our member section today.

In Saturday Night's action, Rookies that played up include WR Will Fuller, WR Tajae Sharpe, and QB Paxton Lynch. WR Tajae Sharpe started the game for the Titans, and finished with 11.7 fantasy points, making good on all 6 targets from Mariota, for a total of 68 receiving yards. The 5th round selection has been the talk of Titans camp, and is now expected to open up as a starter right out of the gate. We're moving up his expectations in the draft software today.  QB Paxton Lynch looked a little methodical throwing the rock yesterday, but he finished 15/26 113 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT. He's still working his way up for now. QB Jared Goff had a mixed evening going 8 for 12 for 82 yards and a TD, but he seems to be lacking some pocket awareness as evidenced by his 2 sacks and 2 fumbles. He's also still working his way up. The Bills surprising release of Karlos Williams,  elevates the value of LeSean McCoy. With Karlos gone, McCoy owners can feel slightly more confident in Red Zone situations.

Fantasy Football Draft Day Dominance!

Last season, our software ranked Devonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2015. (click here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+ year track record).

 

 

 

8/20/2016

Fantistics Sleeper WR #4 Marvin Jones | Detroit Lions

Positives: Jones joins a new team this season coming off a career year in Cincinnati.  He sat out the 2014 season because of injury and returned to post 65 receptions for 816 yards and 4 touchdowns playing opposite of A.J. Green.  Now in Detroit in a possible battle with Golden Tate for the number one role, Jones is primed for a breakout.  Early in the preseason, Jones has been dominating practice, with reporters suggesting that he has taken over as Matthew Stafford’s “favorite target.”

Negatives: We still have a small sample size on Jones, who has only played in two full seasons and part of one during his rookie season in 2012.  He had a career year last season, but still managed just mediocre numbers for a fantasy star.  With plenty of time before the regular season, Jones will have to continue working to be a consistent option for Stafford.

Final Say: Jones is coming off the board near the end of the 10th round in 10-team leagues, good for close to 40th among receivers.  If buzz continues to build up from camp, this could change, but Jones represents a strong value at this spot.  The Lions are facing a B+ schedule against the pass this season, and with Megatron gone, Jones should step in to eat up plenty of the open targets.  Current 8th round (8.10) ADP, Fantistics 6th Round Value.

Fantistics Jeremy McGoldrick takes a look at the 10 most undervalued Wide Receivers in this year's draft  in our member section today.


 

Fantasy Football Draft Day Dominance!

Last season, our software ranked Devonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2015. (click here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+ year track record).

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If you hadn’t heard the name Dak Prescott before, you were properly introduced Friday night as he wowed football fans.  The rookie put up what would have been a superb fantasy line throwing for 199 yards and two touchdowns to go with 28 yards rushing and 2 more scores on the ground.  Tony Romo stated the game and completed 4-of-5 passes for 49 yards, finishing without any injury setbacks.  Though Prescott is starting the season in a bit of a bad spot behind a star like Romo, he may end up being one of the top two rookie quarterbacks this season.  Though he has proven to be quite tough, Romo is an injury waiting to happen, and at 36 years old, the body can’t recover as quickly.  Dynasty leaguers need to take note of Prescott’s early success and draft accordingly as a wasted season behind Romo this year could still mean a big role in the coming seasons.  The Dallas run game was also hot on Friday, but it wasn’t Ezekiel Elliott or Darren McFadden, it was Alfred Morris who charged for 85 yards and a touchdown on just 13 touches.  He will start as the number two should McFadden be hampered by his elbow early in the year...The Dolphins running game had some success, but it didn’t come from its top ball carriers as Jay Ajayi rushed for just 19 yards on 6 carries and Arian Foster lost 5 yards on 2 touches.  The battle for the starting role will continue for these two next week, but it’s possible we could be looking at a true split come week 1.  Foster has the higher upside at the beginning, but Ajayi likely holds the long term value with Foster’s injury risk attached...Kenny Stills caught 3 passes for 71 yards and 2 touchdowns Friday, which should help solidify his number three role for Miami.  Jordan Cameron managed just 1 catch on 2 targets, as he still hasn’t shown us enough to warrant any hype.   Cameron is ranked as our 20th best tight end, and although he should see an upswing this year, he continues to be at best a TE2 option...In the biggest injury news of the night, RB Matt Jones went out with a shoulder injury that later was defined as an AC sprain.  The injury is expected to keep him out the rest of the preseason, but coach Jay Gruden said that he doesn’t expect Jones to miss much time.  Chris Thompson and UDFA Robert Kelley came in following the departure of Jones, before Keith Marshall joined the party.  Thompson doesn’t seem to be a threat for main rushing duties despite his 18 yards on 4 carries.  If Jones is forced to miss any regular season time, we should see Kelley or Marshall take the main role.  Marshall has been underwhelming to say the least as he carried 10 times for just 26 yards on Friday, but Kelley hasn’t done anything better.  Marshall seems to be the handcuff to own for Jones, but keep watching next week for a clearer picture...Bryce Petty is working towards the backup role to Ryan Fitzpatrick after having success Friday night.  He threw for a game high 242 yards and 2 touchdowns, while his competition Geno Smith looked bad completing 6-of-13 passes for 47 yards and an interception.  Fitzpatrick is in no danger of losing his job this season, but if goes down, I feel bad for Jets fans.  Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker both caught a pass in limited action Friday, while the third option in the passing game, Quincy Enunwa was knocked out of the game with a concussion.  The third year receiver will enter the concussion protocol.  Though he’s unheard of by many, Enunwa showed a few bright spots last season and he could develop into a role this year.  Outside of preseason action last night, Le’Veon Bell was the hot news of the day having his suspension cut from four games to three.  This doesn’t do much to his value, which was already at the back end of the first round, but it does drop DeAngelo Williams a bit...In Philadelphia, Kenjon Barner is being predicted as the number two option behind Ryan Mathews.  This is far from a lock as rookie Wendell Smallwood, who received praise early in the summer, has been out with injury the past few weeks.  If Smallwood can return in the preseason, he and Barner will battle it out for an important role behind a fragile back in Mathews...Melvin Gordon showed us more of what we saw out of him last year rushing for just 18 yards on 6 carries.  He did scamper for a 12 yard gain, but was stuffed outside of that.  Travis Benjamin made his San Diego debut, but he finished with just one catch on four targets.  Benjamin will make strides once he’s playing with Phillip Rivers who was not in on Friday.  Rookie TE Hunter Henry caught his lone target of the night for 7 yards.  Though rookie TE’s rarely pan out in fantasy, Henry could step right in if Antonio Gates is limited this season.     Jeremy McGoldrick

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Player InjuryJones,Matt - WAS/RB: Jones went down hard on his shoulder Friday night and was taken to the locker room. Later we found out the injury was an AC sprain, which will likely cost him at least the remainder of the preseason and possibly some time to start the regular season. While Jones could have enough time to recover for week one, the injury has to be something to watch in case it could lead to a chronic problem throughout the season. The Redskins are pretty thin behind Jones with 4th year back Chris Thompson, rookie Keith Marshall and UDFA Rob Kelley next in line. Marshall is the top handcuff, though he has been underwhelming throughout the preseason, including just 26 yards on 10 carries on Friday.

FYI
Gordon,Melvin - SD/RB: It’s a new year, but we saw the same results from Gordon. Though he looked good on a 12-yard run Friday, he finished with just 18 yards on 6 carries. The Chargers are committed to getting him going though, so Gordon remains safe to draft on the fact that is set to be the workhorse. We’re likely to see Gordon make a decent improvement this season, but he still has plenty of work to do.

FYI
Benjamin,Travis - SD/WR: Benjamin had an uninteresting debut with the Chargers catching just one pass for 11 yards. With Kellen Clemens starting the game, Benjamin didn’t have much of a chance to make a mark. Look for what he can do in the third preseason game, as Phillip Rivers should be behind center. Benjamin is holding good value still with an ADP in the 15th round.

Player InjuryEnunwa,Quincy - NYJ/WR: Enunwa left the Friday night contest after suffering a head injury. Though Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are the top dogs in this passing game, Enunwa has a chance to carve out a role and slip into fantasy relevance should Marshall or Decker be sidelined. We learned last season that Ryan Fitzpatrick had plenty of success passing in this offense, and that should continue this season. It appears that Enunwa is dealing with a concussion, which could limit his availability for the third preseason game. He’s headed for the concussion protocol steps, but keep an eye on Enunwa as a deep sleeper option once he’s back to full health.

FYI
Petty,Bryce - NYJ/QB: Playing for a backup role to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Petty easily outplayed Geno Smith Friday throwing for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns on 16-of-26 throwing. Rookie Christian Hackenberg did not play in the game, so it seems as though either Smith or Petty will be next in line. Fitzpatrick holds value as a QB2 this season, but neither Petty nor Smith is going to be the answer should the starter go down.

RookieSudfeld,Nate - WAS/QB: Sudfeld completed just 50 percent of his passes on his way to 77 yards and a touchdown toss Friday night. With Kirk Cousins holding the starting role and Colt McCoy appearing well ahead as the backup, Sudfeld will continue as a project this season should he remain on the roster.

RookieDoctson, Josh - WAS/WR: Rookie Josh Doctson has received some hype leading up to this season despite being injured, but don’t sleep on Ryan Grant and Jamison Crowder in leagues that start a lot of receivers. DeSean Jackson has had trouble staying on the field and Pierre Garcon is entering his age 30 season, while Doctson is having trouble shaking an injury. The receiving corps is far from set in Washington this year, and while Grant and Crowder are not worthy of a draft spot in most leagues, they could start making a name for themselves this year. Crowder quietly caught 59 passes for 604 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2015.

FYI
Foster,Arian - MIA/RB: Foster made his preseason debut with Miami on Friday and it was quite uneventful. He finished with two carries for -5 yards along with nothing in the passing game. Continuing in the battle with Jay Ajayi, Foster finishing the game without an injury is a huge success. While Foster is expected to win the starting role in Miami, Ajayi is still set to receive the most work this season as Foster hasn’t participated in a full season in four years.

FYI
Ajayi,Jay - MIA/RB: The second year back carried 6 times for 19 yards on Friday night for a 3.2 yards per carry average. His competition Arian Foster managed to lose 5 yards on his 2 carries on the night. This battle is going to be confusing and might end up being a close split to start the season, but because of Foster’s fragility, Ajayi has a slight edge in the trust factor. The two have closed their ADP gap and both are projected to go around the 10th or 11th round.

Stills,Kenny - MIA/WR: Stills helped his cause on Friday night grabbing 3 passes for 71 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Cowboys. Though rookies Leonte Carroo and Jakeem Grant are fighting to get into the number three role, it appears as though Stills isn’t in danger of losing that role. He’s a strong deep threat who should have some decent games and a whole lot of stinkers this year.

FYI
Cameron,Jordan - MIA/TE: Cameron has been getting a little talk of late with Adam Gase coming to Miami this season, but he hasn’t been impressing anyone on the field yet. Though Gase has shown success with tight ends in his offenses, Cameron has a long ways to go after catching just 35 passes last year. Cameron is a long shot to be trustworthy this season and currently ranks as a TE2 at best with some potential to surprise.

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FYI
Prescott,Dak - DAL/QB: Prescott stole the night Friday by tossing for 199 yards and 2 touchdowns to go along with 28 yards rushing and 2 more scores on the ground. He also managed to complete 12-of-15 passes while playing partially against the Dolphins first team defense. Though we have to temper our excitement a bit on the rookie, Prescott has showed us that he has the ability to shine in the spotlight. Though he can’t be considered in redraft leagues with Romo in there, keeper and dynasty leagues need to take note of Prescott. Romo has a high probability of going out at some point this season, so Prescott could get an opportunity in 2016, and surely he could be working towards taking over as the quarterback of the future for Dallas.

FYI
Morris,Alfred - DAL/RB: Morris shined on Friday rumbling for 85 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries as the starter with Ezekiel Elliott out. Though he is currently third on the depth chart behind Elliott and McFadden, Morris has a great chance to move into the backup role at least early in the season as McFadden tries to recover from his elbow injury. The Cowboys offense is likely to be able to sustain a second rusher this season for fantasy purposes, but neither Morris nor McFadden warrants a high pick with Elliott firmly entrenched as the go-to guy.

Bell,Le'Veon - PIT/RB: Bell had his suspension reduced from four to three games on Friday. Though you don’t want to be without a top player on your team, Bell’s three game absence shouldn’t sway your draft spot too much as he could still finish atop the RB’s this season. His ADP is near the end of round one behind David Johnson, Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley, but he holds an edge in PPR leagues as he’s averaging over 4 catches per game over his short career.

Ellington,Bruce - SF/WR: Though he has just 19 catches over his two year career, Ellington is getting a little preseason hype as we enter the second weekend of preseason games. He was called a standout during joint practices and called the most improved as well before getting knocked out early this week with an ankle injury. While he isn’t likely to play In Saturday’s preseason game, keep an eye on the 49ers third preseason game to see how he lines up. Torrey Smith is being labeled as a sleeper pick by some, but he is coming off the worst season of his career. While the offense is going to be different this season in San Francisco, it appears that Ellington has a good shot to break through over Smith at a much cheaper price. Smith has an ADP in the 14th round, which could still be a bargain, while Ellington is barely in the top 300.

Barner,Kenjon - PHI/RB: According to CSN Philly’s Reuben Frank, it looks pretty clear that the number two running back in Philadelphia is going to be Kenjon Barner. Barner had just 124 yards rushing on 28 carries last season, but he has played well in the preseason with 12 carries for 66 yards and a score. With rookie Wendell Smallwood out the past few weeks because of a quad injury, Barner has stepped up. This is still a situation that is unresolved as Smallwood could easily overtake the role if he can get healthy. This is surely an important one to keep an eye on though as Ryan Mathews is fragile and Darren Sproles isn’t an every down back.

RookieMarshall,Keith - WAS/RB: The rookie followed up an ugly first preseason game with just 26 yards on 10 carries Friday night. Starter Matt Jones exited with a shoulder injury early in the contest, but Marshall came in after Robert Kelley and Chris Thompson. While the rookie has struggled, there is still a chance that he would replace Jones long term if Jones went down in the regular season or struggled to recover from this shoulder injury. With Jones done for the preseason, keep an eye on the battle between Marshall and Kelley in the third preseason game, which could give us an answer as to who Washington views as the next in line.

 

Notes prepared by Fantistics  Jeremy McGoldrick

 

8/19/2016

CIN RB Jeremy Hill Although his Red Zone numbers were quite encouraging with 12 total TDs (23% Red Zone success), his overall yardage numbers were disappointing (223/794 yards 3.6 YPC). His offensive line is considered above average (C+), and his schedule is neutral for 2016. We expect that there will be a rebound in the rushing totals, and his 7 QS from 2015, will climb closer to 8-9 in 2016. Fantistics believes there is a lot of value at his current 5.04 ADP.

Trevor Siemian has been named the starter for the Broncos for their second preseason game on Saturday but the team says that he and Mark Sanchez are essentially going to share snaps during the game. Both QBs played well in the team’s first game of the season each averaging around 7.5 YPC but Sanchez threw the lone touchdown, and the lone interception..... Eli Rogers is becoming an interesting name out of Steelers camp as the team is looking for their #3 and on receivers. Rogers caught all four of his targets for 39 yards in the game. He received the same amount of targets as Sammie Coates, who continues to under whelm in the preseason games as he caught only two of his targets and the other two were intercepted on balls that Coates could have made more of an effort on it seemed.... Marvin Jones hauled in four passes for 65 yards from Matt Stafford in the Lions second preseason game. Jones is part of a crew of Lions’ wideouts that are going to attempt to replace the production from Calvin Johnson, and Jones looks like he’ll be at the top of the pecking order at the position.  Jones is coming off a season where he had 816 yards on 103 targets with four touchdowns , after notching 10 touchdowns the year before that. He’s got  great chance to reach double digit scores this year and he ranks at #30 on our rankings.... Jeremy Hill was solid in his brief time on the field rushing for 16 yards and a score on three carries. Hill could make for a nice post hype sleeper as his draft stock last year was one in the late 1st early 2nd round range and owners may have soured on him after a down 2015. He only disappointed owners because of where he went as he ran for 12 scores but only had 794 yards on the ground, well below the 1,124 he posted in his rookie year. We have Hill ranked as our #14 back and right now is an extreme value based on the ADP of players around him...... Tyler Boyd is one of my favorite rookie receivers this year based on his college production and the situation he falls into in Cincinnati who needs to fill multiple WR roles. Boyd caught two of three targets for 38 yards and a score in Thursday’s game. Boyd’s touchdown was a redzone look where he worked the seam from the slot, and he could find a home there with AJ Green on on the outside and Tyler Eifert in the middle whenever he can get healthy..... Terrelle Pryor showed some of his potential Thursday, burning Falcons’ #1 corner Desmond Trufant down the sideline to catch a bomb from Robert Griffin III for a 50 yard score. Pryor has had a solid preseason so far and I’d expect that we start seeing him sneaking into the back end of drafts in the near future based on his upside. We know that he’ll get some looks through the first four weeks with Josh Gordon being suspended, but it remains to be seen whether he can be a target monster or if he’ll be boom or bust like departed WR Travis Benjamin.....  Mohammed Sanu had a much better go around in his second game with the Falcons, catching three of five targets for 45 yards including an excellent catch and run for a 32 yard gain. The Falcons’ offense as a whole played much much better than the first game of the season with the first team players staying in the game for almost all of the first quarter of the game. Sanu ranks right now as the WR #42 but in this offense he can finish higher than that with consistent targets.....  If you’re drafting Thomas Rawls in your leagues, you better keep Christine Michael in your queue and snag him as a handcuff towards the end of your draft. It seems like he received a crazy amount of hype last year in Dallas only to get released and signed with Seattle. He’s having a great preseason with another solid effort rushing for 55 yards on 10 carries in the first half of their game....Robert Griffin III showed us flashes of the RGII of old completing 6-of-8 for 96 yards and a pair of scores while rushing for 36 yards on three carries. Besides an excellent touch pass for a score to Gary Barnidge down the sidelines, the best thing RGIII showed Thursday was his ability to slide to avoid contact on one of his scrambles. Staying healthy is going to be key for RGIII this year and sliding is going to go a long way towards that..... If Dion Lewis doesn’t get back to full strength right away, LeGarrette Blount is showing that he can still be very useful to fantasy owners with 11 carries for 69 yards and one touchdown. Blount gets overlooked in fantasy because he’s not by any means flashy and the emergence of Lewis who fits the Patriots offense extremely well. He’s likely the goal line back for the Patriots regardless of the role outside of that, he still can have a baseline of production worth a stash..... Jeremy Langford is getting the majority of the touches as the first team back and was very productive Thursday with 55 yards on eight carries and a touchdown. Langford played well in Matt Forte’s absence and he should get the majority of the work this fall. We have him pegged as he #25 back this season with 1,100 total yards and eight scores. He should be a focal point of the offense and could be a nice value....  Eddie Lacy could be a nice bounce back candidate as the new “thin” Lacy ran for 45 yards on 9 carries with a score. After being a first rounder last year he’s going in the second-to-third round this year and could end up being a fantastic value. We have him projected for 1,300 total yards and double digit touchdowns, which easily makes him a RB1 in all formats.... Tom Brady was going to play in Thursday’s game but cut his thumb on a pair of scissors prior to the game. It’s unknown how serious he cut him thumb, but it doesn’t sound like he’s should miss any additional time since he’s already going to miss the first four weeks of the season because of his suspension....  Julian Edelman didn’t play in Thursday’s game as the team is being very cautious after he re-aggravated his foot injury last week. Edelman is one of the more valuable players on the Patriots offense along with Brady and Gronk so they aren’t going to play him this preseason unless they are 100% certain that he’s healthy in the game. Taking in the fact he may not be healthy to start the season, we have him pegged as the #32 WR in our rankings system with the potential to rise but it all depends on his health.... The Niners GM said Thursday that Colin Kaepernick is not ready to play in a game as he’s still dealing with arm fatigue, and that he’s not sure when he’ll be able to play. This is crappy news for fantasy owners as everyone would rather see his potential upside behind center rather than Blaine Gabbert. However, this could mean bigger things for WR Bruce Ellington who is looked at to run in the slot.... Josh Sperry

 

 

 

8/17/2016

SF RB Carlos Hyde should see a nice boost in receptions in '16. Last year he only caught 11 passes, despite a 74% reception rate…so off the bat we should see an increase in Chip Kelly's offense. An offense that is expected to be high volume. He's currently sporting a 52 ADP in NFFC leagues (5th round) which makes him a tremendous buy, but Yahoo and ESPN have him tighter with a 40 ADP, which should prove to be a value as well. Ses more on Hyde at the bottom of this email.

*Contained within the Fantistics Draft Software is the ability to choose different ADP providers (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, NFBC, MFL, MFL PPR, and blended). Other than the usefulness of using the different ADPs to know what others are thinking, this also allows us the ability to complete different mock drafts using different ADP sources, giving you a different draft in each scenario. Click on the Web update feature in the Draft Advisory Software to download the latest ADPs today.

A Look at ADP by Kyle Elfrink

The fear of embarrassment is a strong one.  Whether that moment takes place in front of total strangers or in front of life-long friends, it’s a dreadful emotion you never truly overcome.  And, man … have you ever had to live down an embarrassing moment at your fantasy football draft!?  The assembled hyena’s won’t let it die, will they?

Perhaps you tried to draft a player who has already been selected (rounds ago!).  Or, maybe you slowed the entire draft room to a crawl because you weren’t prepped for that 9th round selection.  But, I think the biggest fear for many is that you over jump on a player and draft him four or five rounds too early.  If you’re battling a collection of fantasy bluebloods, you’ll know you’ve made a mistake within a second of saying the name.  Once one owner senses the overdraft and makes ‘the sound’ (a huff, a puff, a sneer, a chuckle, a simple word, etc.), you can bet a crowd is soon to follow.  Soon enough, there it is … embarrassment.

Of course by spending time with this column you are making a strong effort to avoid such a happenstance.  So read freely and read constantly!  But, my main interest here is explaining that you don’t have to live and die by what you read here or what your ADP sheet says.  In other words, not all ‘over-drafts’ are mistakes.

If you draft a 5th rounder in the 1st round, yes, you’re screwing up.  But, if you draft the guy with an ADP of 14 at number-8 overall, that doesn’t mean you’re making a mistake.  And, later in the draft … drafting a usual 10th-rounder in the 8th round is not a defined mistake.  The further you get out from the early rounds, the less you should be beholden to the ADP marks you see here and around the web.  The simplest explanation is that we all have different needs once we reach the latter half of any draft.  Your pick in the 3rd round can affect what you do in round 6 and beyond.  A surprising run on mid-tier RBs might force you to push your ‘next favorite’ at RB up by 20-30 picks.  Going in such a direction is not usually a mistake.  We may disagree on the player you feel is the guy to take, but the overall idea of taking someone earlier than usual is not something to fear. 

The key is to do your homework on the player, his situation, your team needs, your league roster requirements, and the current options available at the time of your pick.  If you answer those questions and find a player who fits for you, that word – embarrassment – shouldn’t be a part of your post-draft emotions.

The main thrust of this week’s ADP breakdown will center around making sure you don’t embarrass yourself by buying hook, line, and sinker on a few first-week preseason ‘stars.’  Some should be drafted, others should not.  Some might fit for you late, but you need to be clear on what you’re actually investing in.

·         Who Are We Talking About?

When pre-ordained NFL starters don’t play or (thankfully) don’t get injured in Week 1 of the preseason then we’re left searching through the scrap heap of back-up’s who did show up with notable numbers.  That leads us to the likes of DeAndre Washington, Michael Thomas, Dak Prescott, Jesse James, and Jalen Strong.

·         Little Mount Washington

We’ll start with the presumed hand-cuff in Oakland.  Washington (51st at RB, 152nd overall) is a rookie from Texas Tech who stands just 5’8” and clocks in under-200 pounds.  This past weekend he turned eight carries into 43 yards and also added a 32-yard catch-and-run.  He’s backing up a lead man in Latavius Murray (19th at RB, 60th overall) who few seem to be fired up about in 2016.  For many, Murray was an unexciting, plodder who only earned his work last year because the Raiders had a paucity of options.  Washington is a different sort of runner who is known to do some damage in the passing game.  I could see 30-40 catches, but even if Murray comes up with an injury, I wouldn’t be amped about Washington moving into a full-time role.  Frankly, as a small-sized rookie, I just don’t think he’d be ready for it.  I think the Raiders would make certain to use a committee approach if Murray had to sit out for any amount of time.  In essence, Washington is tempting, but I don’t see major upside in ’16.

·         Talent, Opportunity, Offense … Not So Fast

If you have drafted since late last week, you’ve probably seen Michael Thomas (53rd at WR, 146th overall) going much higher than his current ADP.  Expect that to continue.  He was the lone Saints regular working out wide for a good portion of game 1 and he answered with a solid 4-catch, 63-yard showing.  That appears to have been enough to awaken the assembled masses to the fact that he will be playing with Drew Brees this year.  I’ve liked Thomas since draft day, but if he posts any kind of notable preseason effort, he will eventually get too expensive.  He’s mostly a ‘snap-and-fly’ guy who will be featured as the deep option in New Orleans.  Also, remember that you have a load of mouths to feed in that Saints’ offense.  If you could still get him as 45th or lower WR, I’d be fine with it, but I feel that by late-August the rookie will be heading into the top-35 for some silly owners.

·         America’s Dream

The write-up on Dallas QB, Dak Prescott (53rd at QB, 392nd overall) is short and sweet.  Despite what he did versus the Rams, it doesn’t matter.  He’s a back-up QB in the NFL.  There’s no way you can draft him outside of a dynasty set-up.  Tony Romo’s ability to suit up for 16 games is a true concern, but if/when he goes down, Prescott shouldn’t excite you beyond the most desperate of owners in 2-QB leagues.

·         Why Settle for Steal When You Can Rob the Whole Bank?

Much the same can be said about Pittsburgh tight end (not historic American outlaw) Jesse James (50th at TE, 363rd overall).  He’s starting to get some pub because of the on-going issues with Ladarius Green (11th at TE, 110th overall).  Green has yet to practice this year and rumblings suggest that ceaseless headaches (of the post-concussion variety) are the reason way.  Pittsburgh has publically disputed this (they claim it’s a sore ankle), but smart fantasy players should want no part of Green.  I wouldn’t even have him on my board.  And, that leads us to James.  He’s the next guy up in an offense that likes to throw the ball and it’s also an offense that has made ready use of the tight end spot for close to a decade now.  Still, we know nothing about James.  If he were close to a top-12 tight end, the Steelers wouldn’t have forked over so much money to add Green.  James may be a quote-unquote sleeper, but his position does not allow you to draft sleepers.  It’s rare, that in a typical league, I would ever suggest you even draft a back-up tight end.  You should be drafting back-up runners and receivers, instead.  James is someone who should not be drafted.  He should be on your watch list … especially if you wait at the tight end spot and select a guy outside the top-10.  If your guy isn’t working out, that’s when you begin to turn to the lower-end, unproven possibilities like James.

·         The Strong Could Survive

There’s no dispute who the top dog is in the Houston passing game.  DeAndre Hopkins will get more than 175 of Brock Osweiler’s expected 550 pass attempts this year.  That’s a legitimately huge total, but it still leaves 375 or more passes for other Texans.  Granted, Lamar Miller should see his fair share, but how about the receiver on the flip-side of Hopkins?  Well, first, we have to find out who that man is.  Strong (88th at WR, 293rd overall) made the most immediate impression the other night against San Francisco.  After running with the first-team most of camp, he actually came off the bench and settled in for 42 yards on four catches.  He’s battling a pair of touted rookies in Will Fuller (69th at WR, 202nd overall) and Braxton Miller (107th at WR, 332nd overall).  Fuller is definitely the man that Houston wants to win the job, but he is a rookie and he could be on a steep learning curve early.  I think that Strong is due some opportunities, regardless.  He did little last year (14 catches, 161 yards, and three scores), but that was when both Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts were in his way.  Washington is gone and Shorts is still an immense injury risk.  Keep an eye on Strong for the remainder of August.  I could see lifting him up to the level of being a WR6 if playing time starts to fall in his direction.

Elsewhere …

·         That Was Quick

The Tennessee Titans took a major risk when they made Dorial Green-Beckham (45th at WR, 107th overall) the 40th overall pick of the 2015 draft.  He had bounced between a pair of schools, been caught with drugs twice, and had not played a competitive football game in over a year.  His first go-around was not awful (32 receptions, 542 yards, and four TDs), but whispers indicated he wasn’t very motivated to excellence.  Those low-volume concerns continued in the summer and into camp.  Those murmurs turned into a full-fledged scream on Tuesday when the Titans threw in the towel and sent DGB to Philly for a run-of-the-mill lineman.

Beckham has the physical skills to succeed (6’5”, 225 lbs., good speed, and leaping ability), but a lot of guys have that in the NFL.  If you can’t take the god-given and apply your own work … forget about it.  Perhaps this will be the wake-up for Green-Beckham.  He’ll run second-fiddle to Jordan Matthews (oh, and scratch Nelson Agholor – 63rd at WR, 179th overall – off your sleeper list) and will get to make good on the proverbial ‘second chance.’  He’s still talented enough and intriguing enough to select in the top-60 among wide outs, but he could very quickly be one of your first drops if it’s not happening by Week 3.  He had full run of the Tennessee receiving corps and managed to do very little with it.  In Philly, his path to stardom is not as simple.  It will come down to him.  None of us know what he’ll do, but as is so often the case, you have to draft on the talent and opportunity.  Green-Beckham deserves the benefit of the doubt for at least one more year.

You can hear Kyle each weeknight on ‘The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive’ from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.


Fantasy Football Draft Day Dominance!

Last season, our software ranked Devonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2015. (click here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+ year track record).


Fantistics @MichaelWaldo takes a look at the 5 most undervalued Runningbacks in this year's draft  in our member section today.

 

Carlos Hyde (Current Blended ADP: 4th round)

Positives:  Of all the players on this list, Carlos Hyde has the highest ADP, but he's also the one that's probably getting the most criminally undervalued.  A former second-round pick from Ohio State, Carlos Hyde remains one of the most talented runners yet to break out in an NFL uniform.  After spending two seasons stuck in an unproductive and inefficient San Francisco offense, it looks like Hyde will finally get the opportunity to play in a scheme that fits to his strengths.  Chip Kelly comes to town with a promise to implement his high intensity, high volume offensive strategy in the Bay.  Carlos Hyde has already gone on record saying that he buys into his coach's system and his coach has already hinted that Hyde is a perfect fit for it.  The third-year back has both power and speed and his disappointing 2015 is not unlike the disappointing 2012 that LeSean McCoy endured through before his breakout-Chip Kelly year in 2013.  Now, I'm not saying Carlos Hyde and LeSean McCoy are the same player, but they're certainly made from the same mold, with the exception that Hyde might actually have a little more upside due to his extra agility and quickness.  There are other names in this backfield, but there's not a single back that seems like an imminent threat to Hyde while he's on the field. 

Negatives:  Injuries have been the story of Hyde's career for the last 2 seasons.  His physical style of play helps make him be a successful running back, but it comes at the expense of his health.  Through his first 32 games as a professional. Hyde has only been active for 21 of them.  Even if he does manage to stay on the field the entire season, that's not the only obstacle that he faces.  The 49ers offensive line ranks among the worst in the NFL in terms of run-blocking and he faces an upcoming schedule that projects to be one of the toughest at defending against the run.  Hyde will have to make his impact through the air, but through his first 2 seasons, he only has 23 total receptions despite a strong 74% completion rate.

Final Say:  Look for the biggest year-over-year change in Carlos Hyde's value to occur in PPR leagues where the running back should see a huge boost in projected targets in Chip Kelly's offense. If he can remain healthy, there's a legitimate chance that Hyde transforms into one of the only remaining all-around backs that we'll have in fantasy football.  That would give him substantial value and set him apart in fantasy leagues in so many different ways.  First round upside is not out of the question for Hyde and he certainly has a clear path to it.  More touches for one of the league’s most talented runners is never something that should be overlooked, so take advantage of his “never done it before” discount and buy him before he becomes priced like an elite option next year.  All he has to do is stay healthy. 

 

8/16/2016

TE Martellus Bennett There is talk of New England going to a two-TE formation more frequently with the arrival of Martellus Bennett this offseason. The Patriots have seen plenty of success with tight ends not named Rob Gronkowski in recent years. Even when you take away Gronk’s gaudy numbers there have been 32 other TE touchdowns in New England over the last six seasons. Bennett was fantasy factor during some of his stretches in Chicago, including two seasons ago when he pulled in 90 receptions and scored six times. He could have low-end TE1 value by time the dust settles in 2016 and an even bigger impact should Gronkowski go down with an injury.

Let the hype train start rolling again; there has been an Ezekiel Elliott (hamstring) sighting at practice in Dallas.  The rookie runner took part in Monday’s walk-though practice. The Cowboys are also seeing progress with injured running backs Darren McFadden (elbow) and Lance Dunbar (knee).  Both were participating in non-contract drills and on the side at Cowboys’ practice Monday... Rob Gronkowski “left practice after pulling up while attempting to catch a Tom Brady pass to the sideline in a 7-on-7 drill” per ESPN.com’s Mike Reiss.  He walked off the field, but there has been no further update...Cleveland enjoyed getting wide receivers Corey Coleman (hamstring) and Josh Gordon (suspension) back practicing on Monday. Coleman appears to be poised for a big role out of the gate, but Gordon isn’t eligible to return until Week 5... Ronnie Hillman is squarely on the roster bubble right now in Denver with head coach Gary Kubiak admitting as much during his Monday press conference. “Ronnie is in a battle, a helluva battle...there’s no way around that.”...No news is bad news for Pittsburgh tight end Ladarius Green (ankle, headaches). Head coach Mike Tomlin offered “no clarity” on Monday, per ESPN.com...San Francisco backup quarterback Thad Lewis sustained an ACL injury during Sunday night’s preseason opener...Broncos’ starting DE Vance Walker suffered a torn ACL during Monday’s practice and will be out for the season. Dan Clasgens.

FYISammy Watkins

Buffalo wide receiver Sammy Watkins was huge down the stretch for fantasy owners a year ago. In his final five games he averaged 100 yards and hauled in seven touchdowns. The two problems are durability and the limitations playing in Buffalo’s offense present. He missed time last season with calf and ankle issues and is coming off of off-season surgery for a broken foot. Playing in the Bill’s run-first attack, Watkins will also struggle to get to 90 catches.  While he is capable of scoring every time he touches the football, the 23-year old wideout will be better off as your WR2.

FYIMike Gillislee

With Karlos Williams suspended for four games and in the doghouse in Buffalo, Mike Gillislee is making the most of his opportunities while manning the second spot on the Bills’ depth chart at running back. He tallied 25 yards on three carries in Saturday’s exhibition versus the Colts. Miami gave up on him, but Gillislee had TD plays of 19-, 50- and 60-yard runs in his first four contests after signing as free agent. At least for the first month of the year, he could carry some value playing behind the oft-injured LeSean McCoy.

StatsDion Lewis

Dion Lewis (knee) remains on the Patriots’ PUP list, but several of the team’s beat writers have conveyed that it is more of a precaution and that there have not been any setbacks with his injury. It would still be nice to see Lewis get on the field before locking him in as a RB2 in PPR leagues. Lewis put up top-10 production at the position during his seven outings a year ago, tallying 89 total yards per game with four touchdowns. New England is always mum on their injuries, but the fact the team didn’t draft a running back or go after the position hard in free agency shows they have some confidence in his recovery.

CautionRyan Tannehill

Few quarterbacks in fantasy disappointed as bad as Ryan Tannehill did last season. There is some optimism that Adam Gase arriving to Miami as the head coach will breathe some life into the Dolphins’ signal caller, but buyer beware if you’re considering taken a flyer on him in 2016. Tannehill has averaged 254 passing yards per game and 25 touchdowns over the past three seasons.  He’s terrible on deep balls, holds on to the ball too long, and has taken a league-high 149 over the past three years. There’s talent around him in Miami and that will help, but there are more high-upside options for a QB2 at his current 14.08 ADP.

Rising ValueJordan Cameron

One player primed for a bounce back in Miami could be tight end Jordan Cameron. Let’s not forget it was just a few years ago (2013) when he had a 80 catches and scored seven times for a very bad Browns’ team. Adam Gase’s arrival to South Beach could be just what the doctor ordered for the veteran.  Bears tight ends last year in Gase’s system caught 91 passes, which is 33 more than Miami tight ends. Let’s not get too carried away, but don’t be surprised to see Cameron’s name a lot of early-season waiver wire articles around the web.

IdeaRyan Fitzpatrick

Ryan Fitzpatrick takes a ton of heat for some ill-advised throws and untimely interceptions, but his gun-slinger approach that gives him fantasy appeal. Jets’ offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has a long-track record with Fitz and his offenses are generally pretty efficient in the red zone. Only three quarterbacks in the league have been getting the ball into the endzone in goal-line situations over the last three years than Fitzpatrick. With all the weapons around him this year, this easily the most talented offense he’s ever been in. He’s great option for owners that punt quarterback to turn to in the double-digit rounds.

IdeaEric Decker

With Brandon Marshall on the field, Eric Decker sees a ton of single coverage and there are few better WR2’s in the NFL.  Decker was tied for the league-lead last year with 17 targets inside the 10-yard line. He pulled in 10 catches, including eight of them for touchdowns, from that range. He’s not coming at the great discount he did a year ago with 5.02 ADP right now. However, he’s a safe bet for production at that spot.

Rising ValueLatavius Murray

Latavius Murray finished as a top fantasy running back a year ago, but he only had six quality starts. The final numbers didn’t look bad, but there were times when he just disappeared. He only mustered 3.3 YPC during the second half of the season last year. Still, he deserves a look as a RB2 based off the fact he gets volume.  He 307 touches last year, including 266 rushing attempts (3rd in NFL). On Monday, head coach Jack Del Rio hinted at reporters that one of the team’s goals was for Murray to finish with even more touches than he did last yaer.

RookieC.J. Prosise

Seahawks’ rookie running back C.J. Prosise (hamstring) was a limited participant in practice on Monday, but it was definitely progress. He missed time already in the offseason due to a hip injury and now he’s fallen behind and the backfield is very crowded in Seattle. The goal is for him to develop into the third-down, receiving back role there but a big part of that for a rookie in picking up pass protection and missing this much time in camp is problematic. He needs to show some flashes in the next couple weeks before owners should jump fully onboard.

FYIThomas Rawls

With the surging Christine Michael continuing to draw raves at camp, it was a key step for Thomas Rawls (ankle) to return to team drills on Monday. Rawls is still the front-runner to be the team’s lead back and certainly possesses some Marshawn Lynch-type qualities. Still, his sample size is small and with so many mouths to feed behind him it is critical for his long-term role to build a little bit of cushion to start the season. For now, he should still be considered a high-end RB2 with nice touchdown upside.

Player Injury UpdateJeff Janis

Green Bay wide receiver Jeff Janis (hand) will miss 4-6 weeks following surgery on Monday to repair broken bones in his right index finger. He has some decent fantasy appeal during the offseason and a decent display in relief last year, but his chances of earning a significant offensive role have faded. Davante Adams somehow appears he’s going to keep his grip on the No. 3 WR job for the Packers.

RookieWendell Smallwood

While beat writer Jeff McClane if the Philadelphia Inquirer & Daily News does consider rookie running back Wendell Smallwood “virtually guaranteed” to make the 53-man roster he concedes that he'll have to improve his blocking to beat out Kenjon Barner for the RB3 job in Philly.  Like all rookies, picking up pass protection quickly will determine how big of splash he could make as a rookie.

Rising ValueJesse James

With the speculation swirling around the health of tight end Ladarius Green, fantasy owners need to keep a close eye on Jesse James.  Wit Heath Miller retiring, there is a void in that offense. “Ever since Heath retired, it has been a role that I have expected to be able to handle and take,” James said.  If Green misses time or even worse, retires due to his alleged concussions, James would quickly emerge as a solid TE2. He might already be one that is flying far under the radar.

Today's Fantistics Notes brought to us by Dan Clasgens

 

 

8/15/2016

Evans,Mike - TB/WR: Evans had a decent year in 2015 as he caught 74 passes for 1,206 yards but only nabbed three TDs after scoring 12 in 2014! He was targeted 100+ times but only caught half of the balls thrown to him which ranked him near the bottom of the league. He decided to lose weight this offseason and is down about 15 lbs. which he says makes him feel faster and in better shape. There is no doubt Evans will get his 100+ targets but we think the now svelte Evans will heavily increase his scoring touches and put him more in line with his rookie year numbers.

The Houston Texans buried the SF 49ers Sunday night by a score of 24-13 in both teams’ first preseason game of the exhibition season.  The red and gold actually dominated the first half with its first stringers which is a big positive as the unsettled QB situation is still festering in the city by the Bay.  Blaine Gabbert got the start by default as Colin Kaepernick was deemed inactive because of a sore throwing arm.  Kaepernick has had three surgeries this year and was just cleared to practice without limits just two weeks ago, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he is experiencing some tendinitis like symptoms to his throwing arm.  Interestingly however, a significant portion of the 49ers fanbase believes the whole Chip Kelly concept of an open competition between the two QBs to be a sham and that Gabbert already has the inside track.  If that is true, Gabbert did not overly impress as he was terribly inaccurate on the easiest of throws early on.  Eventually, he did connect with TE Vance McDonald on a 43-yard TD that was impressive but finished the game (he played a quarter and change) throwing 4 of 10 for 63 yards, one TD and rushed three times for 18 yards.  If Gabbert indeed wins the job, even though he is in a QB friendly offense, he is no better than a QB2 in some league formats and a QB3 in others.  Inaccuracy has plagued him his whole career and it is sad to say there isn’t a lot of receiving talent in SF to help Gabbert change that.  On the plus side, he is capable of rushing the ball due to his athleticism so that does increase his fantasy value slightly.  Carlos Hyde rushed five times for 27 yards in limited duty but was outshined by second year RB Mike Davis who has slimmed down this offseason and may excel as Hyde’s backup this year.  Davis rushed five times for 72 yards and caught two passes for 17 yards.  As much hype as Kelly gets for the passing style he coaches, in his first year with the Eagles, they led the league in rushing so that bodes well for Hyde and his top backup fantasy wise which looks to be Davis at this point.  SF TE Vance McDonald – who caught two passes for 54 yards and one TD – may be an underrated TE2 play this coming year because we know how much Kelly likes to use TEs, but do consider McDonald’s injury history and his spotty hands.  Houston QB Brock Osweiler had a flat debut as he overthrew some passes and ended about a quarter of action throwing 4 of 7 for 27 yards, zero TDs and INTs.  Osweiler will be a work in progress and is best drafted as a QB2 in most league formats.  On the other hand, RB Lamar Miller – who I wouldn’t be against drafting as a RB1 in certain league formats – looked great in brief action as he rushed for 30 yards on four carries.  Rookie WR Will Fuller only caught one pass for four yards and was outshined by second year WR Jaelen Strong who caught four passes for 42 yards – possibly solidifying the starting WR spot alongside DeAndre Hopkins.  Whoever ends up starting with Hopkins should be worth a shot as a WR4/5 in most league formats. Jasbir Singh

Other rookie observations: The Texans' 4th rounder, RB Tyler Ervin, had a very tough go of it Sunday Night, only gaining 1 yard on 4 carries. Included in performance was a fumble....not good. Lamar Miller continues to look safe for 230-250 carries.  As Jasbir mentions above, 1st round pick WR Will Fuller only saw 1 target, but 3rd round selection WR Braxton Miller saw 6 targets, catching 4 of them for 34 yards. There currently is an open competition for all receiving slots outside the one occupied by DeAndre Hopkins. The 49ers' 6th round RB Kelvin Taylor gained 4 yards on 2 carries, and caught 1 out of his 2 targets, no threat to Carlos Hyde noted. On to week 2!  -Anthony A. Perri

 

Player InjuryHilton,TY - IND/WR: Hilton tweaked his hamstring early against Buffalo in preseason action Saturday and did not return. There is no word on how serious it is but keep an eye on him because we all know how hamstring injuries can linger. Hilton is looking to rebound from a subpar 2015 (by his standards) and has a good chance to do so with a healthy Andrew Luck back in tow.

Player InjuryKaepernick,Colin - SF/QB: Kap was a scratch from Sunday night’s preseason opener at home against the Houston Texans due to arm/shoulder fatigue. Now, before you start laughing, remember that Kap has had three surgeries this year and only recently was cleared for full practice. Tendinitis is expected and there is no need to push him when rest is the only thing that will rectify the situation. The conspiracy theorists have long insisted that both SF ownership and the coaching staff want Blaine Gabbert to be the starter and the whole competition deal in the preseason is really a farce. This deactivation has only fueled those thoughts but I say Kap’s injury is legit and he should be back next week. Now if his fatigue is still a problem next week, then.......

Higbee,Tyler - STL/TE: There is some buzz coming out of LA after Saturday’s game against Dallas which saw rookie TE Tyler Higbee from Western Kentucky catch five passes for 49 yards on six targets. He has already impressed in camp and looks to be a big part of the offense the Rams are putting around Jared Goff. Technically, Lance Kendricks (yawn) is the starting TE, but if Higbee continues to turn heads, he will nab that starting position. The Rams unfortunately have a wretched group of WRs so the TEs will play a significant role on offense this season.

Pryor,Terrelle - CLE/WR: The former quarterback looks to finally have his first legit opportunity to be an NFL wide receiver after spending the last year or two making the transition from gunslinger. Cleveland’s roster is so barebones right now, Pryor will be given every chance to make the team, especially with Josh Gordon out for the first four games this year. Most onlookers envision Gordon, Corey Coleman and Pryor as the three top WRs, especially after a nice preseason debut for Pryor against Green Bay – catching two passes for 57 yards – including one 49 yard bomb. Keep an eye on Pryor this preseason as he could be reserve material in larger league formats.

FYI
Green,Ladarius - PIT/TE: There are mixed signals coming out of Pittsburgh regarding the health of Green who is listed as having both an ankle injury and concussion symptoms (headaches). He is on the PUP list and head coach Mike Tomlin insists that it’s Green’s ankle that is keeping him out, not headaches. NBC reports that the tight end is in concussion protocol and Green is contemplating retirement because of the ill effects. Whatever the correct story is, Green was expected to pick up the slack left by former TE Heath Miller who has retired. Green now may never even start one game for Pittsburgh which will leave the team in a lurch given the spotty depth behind him (David Johnson and Jesse James? UGH).

Zenner,Zach - DET/RB: The burly Zenner has reportedly overtaken Stevan Ridley (my how time flies when you consider Ridley used to be a stud fantasy back for the NE Pats not too long ago) as the power back in Detroit’s offense. The speedy Ameer Abdullah appears to be the starting back and Zenner will play the role Joique Bell played in recent years – getting those tough yards and racking up goal line attempts. While Bell never gained a lot of yardage, he scored a lot which is what could be in store for Zenner this year. If he is permanently named as the complement to Abdullah, Zenner should have a reserve role in league formats with extended benches.

Player InjuryDoctson,Josh - WAS/WR: Reports out of Washington DC say that the rookie receiver from TCU will return from his Achilles injury in one or two weeks, which is ironically the same timeline given when he originally hurt himself a few weeks ago (oh well). Anyways, Doctson is losing out on valuable practice time and might be behind the proverbial eight ball when the season comes closer. The Skins have nice depth at WR so Doctson will be fighting for playing time when he is ready to play.

FYI
Lockett,Tyler - SEA/WR: Lockett had a quiet first preseason game of the year as he caught just one pass for 11 yards against Kansas City but he will have a much better regular season. Drafted primarily for his return skills, he surprised even those in the Seattle organization with his ability to adapt to the NFL receiving game last year. He excelled in three WR sets and ended the season with 664 yards and six TDs, and will improve on both totals this coming year. With a running game that will be less effective as it was when Marshawn Lynch was running rampant, Russell Wilson will be asked to throw a lot like he did last year. With Wilson’s ability to improvise and throw the deep ball, Lockett is almost impossible to cover for an extended amount of time.

FYI
Coates,Sammie - PIT/WR: The second year receiver from Auburn is expected to play a big role in Pittsburgh due to the yearlong suspension of Martavis Bryant. Markus Wheaton (size) and Darrius Heyward-Bey (inconsistent hands) are better used as reserves while Coates looks to have everything a starter in the NFL needs in terms of size and speed. One problem though that reared its ugly head during Pitt’s first preseason game against Detroit was ball security as he caught three balls and fumbled twice. After the game he said he was careless and was trying to do too much. He better get it straightened out because the Steelers have limited options and Coates is really expected to do strong things.

Evans,Mike - TB/WR: Evans had a decent year in 2015 as he caught 74 passes for 1,206 yards but only nabbed three TDs after scoring 12 in 2014! He was targeted 100+ times but only caught half of the balls thrown to him which ranked him near the bottom of the league. He decided to lose weight this offseason and is down about 15 lbs. which he says makes him feel faster and in better shape. There is no doubt Evans will get his 100+ targets but we think the now svelte Evans will heavily increase his scoring touches and put him more in line with his rookie year numbers.

Sharpe,Tajae - TEN/WR: Sharpe has gotten some ink as a possible surprise starter in Tennessee based on having a strong camp but was unfortunately knocked out early in Saturday’s game against San Diego with a possible concussion. It was confirmed Sunday that he was not concussed and will not have to enter concussion protocol which is actually great news not just in terms of his health but in terms of his progress. The rookie from UMass is actually ahead of veteran Kendall Wright on the depth chart which tells you how much the team thinks of this surprisingly smooth route runner.

Player InjuryForte,Matt - NYJ/RB: Forte is still struggling with a hamstring issue and is considered day to day by the Jets. Most of those close to the team believe the Jets are just being overprotective which is smart at this point of the preseason, but we have to consider Forte’s age (30) and dubious injury history. I personally know of owners who thought highly of Forte coming into this season but since this hamstring issue has come up, are now considering bypassing him altogether.

FYI
Booker,Devontae - DEN/RB: Booker got some work with the first team unit against Chicago late last week and continues to get reps in practice. CJ Anderson is the unquestioned starter for Denver after receiving a big contract in the offseason, but Booker may make his presence known sooner than later. Ronnie Hillman returned on a one year contract but is more of a third down back due to his speedy running style. Booker excels at the zone blocking scheme and is someone to consider for reserve/handcuff duty in larger league formats if he keeps getting more and more reps.

FYI
Gordon,Josh - CLE/WR: Gordon returned to Browns practice Sunday – the first time he has practiced with the team since he was suspended for substance abuse issues almost two years ago. He did report out of shape as he aggravated a quad muscle during a personal workout but since he will be suspended for the first four games of the season, the team is in no immediate hurry to work him back into game shape. Although it is hard to visualize, if RGIII does manage to regain his starting QB touch behind a sketchy Brown offensive line, Gordon will be a fantasy force this year.

Cruz,Victor - NYG/WR: Cruz is still not over the injury woes that have plagued him the last few years. It started with the gruesome knee injury in 2014 and then a calf ailment last year, and now he is dealing with a groin injury. He is still practicing and playing the significance of the injury down to the media, but he is hobbled and it is noticeable. Are the days of Cruz being a solid WR fantasy play week to week over? Sterling Shepard is getting extra work and may be a bigger fantasy factor this year than we thought.

Today's Fantistics Notes brought to us by Jasbir Singh

 

 

8/14/2016

WR Doug Baldwin had a monster 2nd half with 47/724 yards and 12 TDs. Posted 6 QS in his final 8 games. Most surprisingly he increased his reception rate from 67% to 76%, while also increasing his YPR from 12.5 to 13.7. Regression expected, especially in the TD category, but he's a legit top 15-20 receiver that's been available as late as the 5th round in some drafts.

Week 1 Saturday Observations: Seattle's Retread Christine Michael appears to have turned the corner, figuratively and literally. He's had some buzz on him in camp, and he looked spry in their preseason opener going 44 yards on 7 carries. Rawls is coming along slowly following off season ankle surgery, and it appears that Michael is going to push him for touches. The Chargers' 2015 1st rounder RB Melvin Gordon may be in for a turnaround season, he looked much more decisive on his runs Saturday night, and finished with with 12 yards on 3 carries, but the big play was a broken pass play where he scampered for a 44 yard TD. He's moving into our late round board. Rookie RB Derrick Henry had a monster game with 74 yards on 10 carries, with a TD against the opposing 2nd quarter defense. Before we get too excited, lets consider that DeMarco Murray had an even bigger night with 93 yards on only 6 carries (1 TD) against the 1st quarter defense, and even Bishop Sankey ran for 52 yards on 3 totes. Basically the Chargers run defense was non existent. The Chargers Rookie TE Hunter Henry played in the 1st quarter and performed well, finishing the night with 3 receptions for 43 yards on 4 targets. He's a deep league consideration at this point, especially while Antonio Gates is healthy.  The Rams 3rd round Rookie TE Tyler Higbee finished with 5 receptions on 6 targets for 49 yards. It was impressive work mixed into the 2nd and 3rd quarter. Lance Hendricks is ahead of Higbee on the depth charts, but could be surpassed if Higbee can continue his progress in pass protection. A rocky start for #1 overall QB Jared Goff, 4 for 9 for 38 yards and one INT. There was a pass that was dropped that could have made his stat line look better and a big hit ended his evening early. Growing pains. The Cowboys 4th round QB Dak Prescott had the best night among the rookies with his 10/12 139 yards 2 TDs, of course he's going to be holding the clip board most of this season, barring a Romo injury of course. With RB Ezekiel Elliot sidelined (hamstring), 6th round RB Darius Jackson saw some 1st quarter action going 12 for 47 yards 3.9 YPC. There's just too many ahead of him in the pecking order for fantasy consideration. There wasn't much high end talent among the rookie WRs playing on Saturday Night, WR Pharoh Cooper was the highest round WR playing (4th round) and he might have scored a TD if he didn't get side swiped near the endzone.  On the injury front WR Jeff Janis has a fractured hand and will miss significant time, Davante Adams was higher in the pecking order before this injury and will remain there for now. Rookie QB Carson Wentz has a hairline fracture on his rib, this will of course set him back further in his development, Sam Bradford's stock moves up a bit, but he's still not in the conversation in most fantasy formats.    -Anthony A. Perri

Contained within our player projections software is a notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a look at some of the Wide Receivers that will be part of your 2016 draft (In no particular order):

Cobb,Randall Despite a slight increase in the number of targets, production fell considerably last season without Nelson across from him. Fantasy Points per Game fell from 18.5 to only 13.1. Completion rate fell from 72% to only 61%. Should bounce back with the return of Nelson on the other side.

Jones,Julio Posted his best season ever with 136 receptions and 1871 yards (8 TDs) which soared his QS index from 9 to 13 in 2016. Amazingly the increase in targets did not decrease his reception percentage which actually increased from 64 to 67%. That said it's hard to imagine that we'll see an increase in his 203 targets from last season. Regardless, even with a 15% drop in production, a top 3 selection in most any PPR draft.

Baldwin,Doug Monster 2nd half with 47/724 yards and 12 TDs. Posted 6 QS in his final 8 games. Most surprisingly he increased his reception rate from 67% to 76%, while also increasing his YPR from 12.5 to 13.7. Regression expected, but he's now a legit top 15 receiver.

Matthews,Rishard Posted a solid 70% completion rate with a elite 15.4 YPC ;last season in Miami. Elite 2.15 FP per attempt, yet underutilized to the tune of 61 targets in 11 games. Could emerge as a solid #2/#3 WR in fantasy.

Jones,Marvin Moves to Detroit, which is not necessarily a great situation as DET threw the 6th least passes in the NFL, while Cincinnati the 2nd most. On the positive side note he moves to a QB who has better accuracy and he should see an increase in Red Zone opportunities.

Sanu,Mohamed Faces a better schedule (B), gets a more accurate QB, and will be the default #2. Has had some drop issues in the past, but could blossom here.

Benjamin,Travis Posted a career year in 2015, in a questionable QB situation, and now moves to a situation with a gun slinger....which is perfectly suited for Benjamin's game. As with many deep threat receivers, his production tends to be spaced apart and come in bursts.

Fantasy Football Draft Day Dominance!

Last season, our software ranked Devonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2015. (click here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+ year track record).

 

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8/13/2016

Rookie WR Laquon Treadwell played better by making good on 4-of-5 targets for 41 yards on the night.  The only thing preventing Treadwell from shooting up the draft boards is playing in a passing attack that ranked near the bottom of the league last season.  Charles Johnson is a threat to start as the number two in Minnesota as well, though Treadwell should be able to overtake him early in the year if that does happen...According to our latest consensus ADP (which can be seen in our draft advisory software) Treadwell currently has a 10th round ADP...which is pricey.

Friday night was rookie night as plenty of newbie’s were on display in their first NFL preseason action.  Our top rookie fantasy receiver Sterling Shepard was quiet in limited action as he finished the night with just one catch for 24 yards despite four targets. Once he gets to catch from Eli Manning, Shepard is expected to do big things opposite Odell Beckham Jr....The Bengals continue to be impressed with their rookie receiver as Tyler Boyd caught one pass on Friday for a 40-yard gain.  He remains in a battle with Brandon Lafell to be the second option for Andy Dalton, though both should see plenty of time on the field early in the season.  As the 6th rookie receiver coming off the board, Boyd represents a solid value option currently...The Dolphins have a strong young group of receivers already, and rookie Leonte Carroo will add to that this season.  He caught 3 passes for just 18 yards on Friday, but with continued work, he should be able to supplant Kenny Stills in this offense.  Carroo finds himself in a crowded group though, so his fantasy value is limited this season. Fellow Miami rookie Jakeem Grant made a name for himself Friday night with 68 yards receiving on four receptions.  A sixth-round pick, Grant is a 5’7” speedster who could carve out a slot role in this offense.  He’s worth monitoring in the coming weeks, though it’s a long shot that Grant can break into fantasy relevance...Another receiver who isn’t well known is the second rookie receiver pick in Cleveland, Rashard Higgins.  While Corey Coleman is the rookie everyone is watching with the Browns, Higgins is working his way into a role.  He caught just one pass on Friday night, but it went for a 10-yard touchdown.  Keep an eye on his role as Cleveland isn’t set at the receiver position despite the impressive play of Terrelle Pryor and Coleman...The Browns also have a rookie vying for a spot behind center in Cody Kessler.  With just Robert Griffin, Josh McCown and Austin Davis on the roster, the rookie has a shot at working his way up the ranks.  He fared well on Friday night completing 2-of-2 passes for 15 yards and a touchdown.  Kessler is not a redraft option, but he is worth a look in dynasty leagues...Another young talent who has impressed so far is New York RB Paul Perkins, who racked up 40 yards on 8 touches Friday.  Perkins sits behind a slew of backs in New York, but none are a safe bet for the Giants.  With Rashad Jennings (injury-prone) set to start the year and Shane Vereen (a passing down specialist) and Andre Williams (a short-yardage specialist) ahead of him, Perkins could easily find his way to fantasy relevance this season...Jay Ajayi didn’t help his cause on Friday night as he deals with his own RB battle with Arian Foster.  Ajayi missed two passes that were targeted at him, while managing just six yards on two carries.  He’ll need much more to beat out Foster for early down work, though we are likely to see the Dolphins roll with the veteran.  Ajayi should drop down the boards once Foster is deemed healthy enough for some preseason work, which will make Ajayi a value to scoop up later in the draft...Sammie Coates has gathered a lot of buzz of late, but he didn’t impress on Friday with 18 yards on three receptions and two fumbles.  Coates continues to move up draft boards with the hype train following him, which could lead to Markus Wheaton turning into the better value of these two receivers...In his first action of what we hope is a renewed season for Eddie Lacy, he rushed for 24 yards on 4 carries.     Jeremy McGoldrick

Other rookie observations: Oakland's 5th round selection RB DeAndre Washington looked explosive with his 43 rush yards on 8 carries, 25 of those came on one big run, and another 32 yards on a screen pass. Latavius Murray, is the more talented runner, especially in tight spaces, but Washington will cut into the 266 carries from a year ago. The Raiders 7th round RB Keith Marshall struggled in the run game, registering -1 yards on 5 carries. He did register 2 receptions on 2 targets for 10 yards. RB Matt Jones looks safe for 250ish carries at this point. On Thursday Night, Falcons 3rd round selection TE Austin Hooper had no receptions on his 1 target. Tight End remains far and away the position that doesn't support offensive production during the rookie season. The Dolphins 3rd round RB Kenyan Drake (hamstring) didn't play week 1, thus Jay Ajayi's value remains intact. 7th round selection for the Lions, RB Dwayne Washington saw 2 carries for 12 yards, and had 1 reception for 15. This backfield is crowded and they seem to be intent on bringing Washington along slowly. As Jeremy mentioned above, fantasy radar is on Bengals 2nd round rookie WR Tyler Boyd, but little known 6th round WR Cody Core has also been impressive in camp, and yesterday he caught 3 of his 5 targeted passes for 33 yards, Boyd is still the guy to own in non dynasty formats.    -Anthony A. Perri

Fantasy Football Draft Day Dominance!

Last season, our software ranked Devonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2015. (click here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+ year track record).

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8/12/2016

RB Kenneth Dixon got his NFL career off to a good start with nine carries for 44 yards against the Panthers. He's got some players ahead of him, but the talent is there, and he'll make the most of it given the opportunity. Dixon has the future of a bell cow back and he could end up being one of the best late game payoffs in this year's fantasy drafts.


Kenneth Dixon is a sleeper pick this year as someone who can take over at some point during the season, a la David Johnson last season. Dixon has a good ability at catching the balls out of the backfield, which could get him use on third downs this season..... While  Dixon had the advantage in terms of YPC Thursday, Terrance West is the one who found the end zone twice on plunges from one and two yards out. This could be telling as Justin Forsett isn’t a goaline back and we aren’t real sure how the depth chart shakes out entirely behind him, but West getting the goal line shots over Dixon could make West’s ADP rise....  Devin Funchess only caught one pass Thursday but he made it count, finding the endzone from 10 yards out. Funchess’ development as the WR3 in the Panthers’ offense could pay huge dividends if the Panthers can be three deep at WR instead of just one deep like they were last year. Funchess will likely start inside with Kelvin Benjamin and Ted Ginn Jr... Mark Sanchez has a decent preseason debut completing 10 of 13 passes for 99 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The nine yards a completion isn’t great, but it looks even worse when you take into account that one of the passes was a 32 yard touchdown to a wide open Demaryius Thomas. So outside of that he completed nine passes for 67 yards which just over six yards a completion.... After offseason ankle surgery, we all thought that LaDarius Green hadn’t practiced yet because of his ankle but rather it is because he is suffering from consistent headaches. Green has had concussion issues in the past so it is a bit concerning that he’s suffering these headaches. Green is supposed to play a big role in the Steelers offense so this could be a fantasy issue if it were to linger into the season..... Michael Thomas had a very nice debut for the Saints hauling in four catches for 67 yards including a diving grab down the field. Thomas is a very trendy pick early in draft season and with this game we may see him have big rise in ADP as we continue on the preseason. Fantistics projects him for 60 catches, 736 yards, and six scores and he could easily end up the #2 target behind Brandin Cooks in the Saints offense..... Aldrick Robinson may have thrown his name into the WR3 hat in the Falcons’ offense with a three catch 118 yard game in the teams’ first preseason game. His current competition mainly comes from second year receiver Justin Hardy who hauled In one pass for 17 yards. We still have a long way to go, but Matt Ryan does project to throw for 4,400 yards and 26 touchdowns and not ALL of those can go to Julio Jones.....Former LSU star WR Russell Shepard had a good start to the season with three catches for 62 yards and a score coming from starting QB Jameis Winston. There’s a lot of mouths to feed in that TB offense, so it’ll be interesting to see how the targets shake out if Shepard is in fact able to lock down the #3 spot for the team..... IF you’re looking for a super sleeper running backs, Tyler Gaffney may just fit what you like. With Dion Lewis still recovering to get 100% from his ACL surgery, Gaffney took advatange Thursday to show what he can do. HE carried the ball nine times for 64 yards (7.1 YPC) and he also snagged two passes. So somehow Gaffney was able to get starting RB carries for the Pats, he basically becomes what Dion Lewis was last year.... The #2 overall pick Carson Wentz struggled in his NFL debut completing 50% of his passes (12/24) for no scores and one pick. He also showed a bit of an ability to run taking off three times for another 15 yards. Chase Daniel didn’t exactly blow the doors off the place going 4-for-10, but his $7 million paycheck all but assures that he’s the backup to starter Sam Bradford.... Cody Latimer is a name we’ll recognize from a year ago as a guy we were talking up about his potential role as the #3 receiver. Latimer snagged a game high seven passes for 82 yards, which was also a career high...... Marquis Lee is clearly behind Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns on the depth chart, but there’s a chance that he’s able to have some success in the WR3 role for the team. Lee caught four balls on Thursday for 49 yards and his four catches were tops on the team. Jimmy Garoppolo completed 11 of 18 on Thursday for 168 but couldn’t manage to find the endzone in the game. IF you literally have the worst scenario ever happen at QB and you take Brady and cant find a replacement for the first four weeks, well you probably should keep looking. With Arizona, Miami, Houston, and Buffalo starting the season I wouldn’t want any of the Jimmy G puzzle is any sort of situation.....  Even if it’s just one catch for three yards, it’s nice to see the Bears’ wideout Kevin White getting some playing time. Fantistics has a nice season projected for White with 823 yards and seven scores in essentially when this season is basically his rookie season.... Maybe this will be the year that the Virgil Green slight hype train comes to fruition as he and Sanchez connected three times for 36 yards in the preseason opener. Saying the Broncos’ is up in the air is a question mark is an understatement as none of the Denver TEs rank in the top 40 of our projections.... Josh Sperry

Fantasy Football Draft Day Dominance!

Last season, our software ranked Devonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2015. (click here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+ year track record).

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Kenneth Dixon (Round 4, Pick 134 - Baltimore)

College – At the NFL level, it’s now rare to see a running back who spent 4 years playing college football.  Since he was at Louisiana Tech since 2012, Dixon racked up an eye-popping 72 rushing touchdowns and 15 receiving touchdowns to go along with 5,452 total yards.  Despite a somewhat smaller build (5’8’’ 215 pounds), Dixon was a very physical runner in college and never shied away from contact.  He was quite successful at it as well, gaining an average of 3.3 yards after contact in 2015.  The Ravens’ rookie showed off excellent footwork and cutting ability during his collegiate years, while also adding in just enough acceleration to make most of his defenders miss the tackle.  He did have some ball security issues, so that’s one area of his name that will certainly need to improve before he hits the NFL field.

Redraft Outlook – It’s an extremely crowded backfield in Baltimore to begin training camp.  In the first published depth chart, Kenneth Dixon is currently behind Justin Forsett and Buck Allen while missing the first couple of weeks of camp with a knee injury.  Conference USA and the NFL are two completely types of football, so Dixon is going he have a steep learning curve.  He acknowledges the challenges ahead of him and was quoted as saying “there’s a lot more details to the game, checking protection before you get out in the route, taking the correct steps in the zone run, but it’s all the same.  Football is football once you get used to it.”  Dixon’s physical style of play may get him into trouble as an NFL player (in terms of injuries), but it also might help him stand out and rise above the crowd at the position.  Neither Forsett nor Allen are dominant backs, so the opportunity is certainly there for Dixon to compete for touches during the pre-season.  The outlook for this season remains a likely timeshare between the three-headed monster, but Dixon was rated as one of the top backs of the draft class, so he certainly has the talent to grab more touches if he performs. 

Dynasty Outlook – With a relatively small build and a physical style of play, it remains a question whether Dixon will be able to hold up over an entire NFL season, let alone a long career.  With that said, his outlook in dynasty leagues is certainly brighter than his outlook in re-draft leagues for 2016.  With an almost identical skillset to Buck Allen, his place on the team is a little questionable, but the two backs should both compete for touches after Forsett departs at the end of the 2016 season. 

Fantistics Projection: 102 rushing attempts, 455 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns, 33 receptions, 280 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns. 


Fantistics Michael Waldo breaks down all of the Rookie RBs to know in your draft in our member section today.

 

8/11/2016

Ezekiel Elliott will not play in Saturday’s pre-season opener.  This isn’t much of a surprise since the rookie hasn’t been practicing, but it certainly opens the door for Alfred Morris to make a good impression... After team practice on Wednesday, Chief’s General Manager John Dorsey said he was “optimistic” that Jamal Charles will be ready for Week 1... The buzz out of camp has been exceptionally positive for newly signed Marvin Jones all pre-season and now it looks like he will be the WR1 to open the season... Thomas Rawls was activated from the PUP list on Tuesday, but team will take it easy with him this pre-season... Cleveland rookie receiver Corey Coleman missed his 4th straight practice on Wednesday... The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Paul Dehner Jr doesn’t believe that Giovani Bernard will see a boost in targets with the absence of tight end Tyler Eiffert.  Dehner Jr. also reported that “Seemingly every day during camp, (Tyler) Boyd has made a play to make coaches take notice”... When asked about the status of new tight end Ladarius Green, Steelers head coach simply responded with “he’s still on PUP”.... The Texans released their first official depth chart on Tuesday and it was second-year Jaelen Strong listed as the WR2, not rookie Will Fuller.... New York Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr tried to spill the beans on rookie Sterling Shepard after Wednesday’s practice by saying “I don’t want to spoil the surprise, but he’s going to be a special player.  I kind of want to keep him on the down low right now, so that he just jumps out the first couple of games and has some big plays”... Jimmy Graham was activated from the PUP list on Tuesday, just 8 months since he tore his right patellar tendon in Week 12 of last season....Philly Voice’s Jimmy Kempski suggested on Wednesday that tight end Trey Burton is “perhaps the biggest standout” in camp...Speaking to Mike Clay on his fantasy football show on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio, ESPN’s Michael Rothstein reminded us that Jim Caldwell “has never had a strong running game”.  As Clay later pointed out on Twitter, this fact is an important one to remember while drafting Ameer Abdullah in fantasy drafts... One day after leaving practice with a foot injury (via the dreaded golf cart!), Julian Edelman was back at practice on Wednesday. Michael Waldo


Fantasy Football Draft Day Dominance!

Last season, our software ranked Devonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2015. (click here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+ year track record).


Player InjuryJamaal Charles (KC) – After team practice on Wednesday, Chief’s General Manager John Dorsey said he was “optimistic” that Charles will be ready for Week 1.  While this is the same story we have been hearing all along, it would be nice if we actually saw Charles take the field during training camp.  We’re now just a few weeks away from kick off and Charles has yet to see one practice rep.  There’s a fine line between a veteran who needs fewer practice reps and a veteran who won’t be in football shape.  The Chiefs have two very capable backups in Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware, so while the general buzz has been that Charles will return to the field with the same workload as pre-injury, that school of thought might be at risk with a limited pre-season. 

Player InjuryEzekiel Elliott (DAL) – Ezekiel Elliott will not play in Saturday’s pre-season opener.  This isn’t much of a surprise since the rookie hasn’t been practicing, but it certainly opens the door for Alfred Morris to make a good impression.  Both Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar will also miss Saturday’s game, so Morris will have a nice opportunity to show his ability to still be a featured back.  Elliott’s stock has fallen a bit over the last 2 weeks, amid off-the-field and injury issues, but the future for the back remains exceptionally bright.  While he’s not a slam dunk, owners that gamble with a late first-round pick on him are certainly getting a high-upside player that could win you a league.

Marvin Jones (DET) – The buzz out of camp has been exceptionally positive for newly signed Marvin Jones all pre-season.  That buzz hit a fever pitch level after MLive.com (an online Michigan news source) reporter Kyle Meinke wrote that “On Tuesday, quarterback Matthew Stafford got his first chance to work against a foreign defense, and he went to Jones repeatedly, targeting him with seven of his 14 passes during team drills at a joint practice with the Steelers.”  Meinke also mentioned that Jones looked like the team’s “top wideout. And in recent days, it hasn’t been all that close”.  The assumption all along was that Golden Tate would see a nice bump in targets this season with the absence of Megatron, but perhaps that won’t be the case.  Jones, of course, needs to prove he can stay healthy and on the field, but we’ll likely see his ADP rise in the final weeks before the season starts.

Player InjuryThomas Rawls (SEA) – Speaking to reporters from the team’s website, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll reiterated the team’s caution regarding Thomas Rawls’ recovery from a broken ankle.  "We’re going to be careful. There’s no need to rush him at all. He’s a very violent football player and he needs time to get ready to play the way he does, so we’re going to take it, however long that is. I don’t even have a schedule on that at this point.”  Rawls was activated from the PUP list on Tuesday.  CJ Prosise has gained a little momentum in recent weeks considering Rawls’ slow recovery time, but Pete Carroll’s remarks definitely confirm that Rawls is a big part of the team’s plans.  Prosise will be a nice passing down back this season, but there are definite question marks whether he will be able to handle a workload of an every down back.  Meanwhile Carroll also said "I don’t think there’s anybody in better shape than Thomas. I think he put himself in great, great condition."  It certainly seems like concerns over the second year back are being overblown.  Rawls averaged an impressive 5.6 yards per carry last year while also posting a respectable 81.8% reception rate out of the backfield. 

Player InjuryCorey Coleman (CLE) – Cleveland rookie receiver Corey Coleman missed his 4th straight practice on Wednesday.  "For me, a hangnail would be concerning if you have that kind of speed (4.37),'' receivers coach Al Saunders said Tuesday to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com. "Our trainers are phenomenal. He was kept out of practice (the past four days). He's had a history of soft tissue injuries. He's had three or four hamstring pulls. He had groin surgery recently. We just want to make sure he's right and ready to go.''  Cabot went on to document Coleman’s lengthy history of hamstring injuries in her article, but the key takeaway was that the team may decide to hold Coleman out of their pre-season contest with the Green Bay Packers.  Coleman was really impressive in the first week of training camp last week and there’s growing optimism in Cleveland after RGIII and the rookie have shown really nice chemistry together.

RookieTyler Boyd (CIN) – The Cincinnatti Enquirer’s Paul Dehner Jr. reported that “Seemingly every day during camp, (Tyler) Boyd has made a play to make coaches take notice”.  The Bengals have a lot of targets up for grabs with Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones each wearing different uniforms this year and tight end Tyler Eiffert set to miss 3-4 months.  The second round pick has been doing and saying all the right things this pre-season and certainly looks like he’ll play a nice role for the offense in 2016. He’s a near lock to start alongside AJ Green and Brandon LaFell in week 1. 

Player InjuryLadarius Green (PIT) – When asked about the status of new tight end Ladarius Green, Steelers head coach simply responded with “he’s still on PUP”.  Green has always had all the potential in the world, but has failed to stay on the field long enough to flash it.  Once tabbed as the replacement for Antonio Gates in San Diego, Green now takes his services in Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are one of the most prolific red zone offenses in the league, which is an area where Green thrives, but he needs to get on the field to build a rapport with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. 

FYIGiovani Bernard (CIN) – The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Paul Dehner Jr doesn’t believe that Giovani Bernard will see a boost in targets with the absence of tight end Tyler Eiffert.  Instead, he believes that the team will spread the targets between Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd, but Jeremy Hill also seeing a few more carries.  If this is true, Bernard’s recent ADP jump is likely unwarranted.  Nonetheless, we’ll see how this plays out.  LaFell has been an injury waiting to happen for much of his career, while Tyler Boyd is a rookie.  One thing we do know for sure is that the Bengals’ running back situation is a moving target that’s nearly impossible to project. 

RookieWill Fuller (HOU) – The Texans released their first official depth chart on Tuesday and it was second-year Jaelen Strong listed as the WR2, not rookie Will Fuller.  Nonetheless, the Houston Chronical is reporting that the rookie has mostly participated as the wide receiver opposite of DeAndre Hopkins during practice and that his route running stood out on Tuesday.  While it would be nice to think that the WR2 in Houston is going to make a huge impact, the reality is that Nuk will capture such a large percentage of the team’s targets that it’ll be difficult for the WR2 to return consistent value over an entire season.  That’s not to say that Fuller lacks upside, it’s just something to consider while sitting in your draft room. 

RookieSterling Shepard (NYG) – New York Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr tried to spill the beans on rookie Sterling Shepard after Wednesday’s practice by saying “I don’t want to spoil the surprise, but he’s going to be a special player.  I kind of want to keep him on the down low right now, so that he just jumps out the first couple of games and has some big plays”.  Sorry, Odell, but the fantasy community is already on it.  Shepard has both the skills and the opportunity to be the most productive rookie wide receiver this season. 

Jimmy Graham (SEA) – Jimmy Graham was activated from the PUP list on Tuesday, just 8 months since he tore his right patellar tendon in Week 12 of last season.  Graham seems positioned to be available in Week 1, but we’ll obviously want to watch closely this pre-season to ensure he doesn’t suffer any setbacks.  After scoring 51 touchdowns in 78 games as a New Orleans Saint, Graham managed to score just 2 in his 11 games with the Seahawks.  While a return to dominance certainly isn’t out of the question, Graham’s injury is notoriously difficult to come back from and he’ll be 30 years old this season. 

RookieTrey Burton (PHI) – Philly Voice’s Jimmy Kempski suggested on Wednesday that tight end Trey Burton is “perhaps the biggest standout” in camp.  Kempski went on to say that the Eagles would do well with a 13 personnel set-up that features one running back, one wide receiver, and three tight ends.  Kempski’s comments also seem to be in line with Eagles’ offensive coordinator Frank Reich.  Speaking to the Philadelphia Inquirer, Reich said “Tight end is the strength of this roster, this offensive unit.  If you look at Doug’s system and what they did in Kansas City with their tight ends and how we’ll utilize them here, it’ll be very consistent with that, and we’ve got the players to do it.”  Reich is referring to Pederson’s time as the offensive coordinator under Andy Reid in Kansas City when a large part of their offense centered around Travis Kelce and Anthony Fasano.  It worked well in Kansas City, but they also had one of the best running backs in the league as well.  Nonetheless, Burton is an interesting name to keep an eye on in dynasty formats, but can probably be ignored in re-draft leagues for now. 

FYIAmeer Abdullah (DET) – Speaking to Mike Clay on his fantasy football show on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio, ESPN’s Michael Rothstein reminded us that Jim Caldwell “has never had a strong running game”.  As Clay later pointed out on Twitter, this fact is an important one to remember while drafting Ameer Abdullah in fantasy drafts.  All pre-season we have been given the indication that Abdullah would become the Lions lead back this year, but no one has really talked about how much usage he would see.  Currently being drafted as the 30th running back off the board, his cost seems to be about right.  In other words, don’t reach for Abdullah just because he’s “the lead back”. 

Player InjuryEric Ebron (DET) – Speaking on Mike Clay’s fantasy football show on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio, Mike Rothstein also offered positive news on tight end Eric Ebron.  According to Rothstein, Ebron’s injury did not impact the achilles at all and was limited only to his ankle.  While that means he’ll likely miss the pre-season, there’s a good shot he’ll be ready to week 1.  The hype train was getting out of control for Ebron this summer, but last week’s injury definitely slowed things down a bit. If he is ready, he could once again be had for a nice value.  Rothstein added that Ebron is now Matt Staffords “tallest option” and “may be a favorite of Stafford in the red zone”. 

FYIJulian Edelman (NE) – One day after leaving practice with a foot injury (via the dreaded golf cart!), Julian Edelman was back at practice on Wednesday.  While this particular situation turned out to be nothing of concern, it’s a simple reminder that Julian Edelman has had an extensive injury history and he’s no guarantee to get through this season without a setback to his surgically repaired foot (or something else).  Edelman is currently being drafted as a WR2 in most leagues and while this draft position is probably fair considering his injury risk, he could easily perform as a WR1 in PPR leagues if he can stay healthy the entire year. 

Notes prepared by Fantistics  Michael Waldo.

Fantistics Dan Clasgens @DanClasgens breaks down all of the Top 5 Undervalued QBs to know in your draft in our member section today. Here's one of them:

Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (NFFC QB13 – Blended ADP 10.10)

Positives:  Last year at this time Kirk Cousins was stilled marred in a QB controversy. However, he emerged as the franchise quarterback with solid 2015 campaign. During the second half of the season he threw 19 touchdowns with just two interceptions and completed 74 percent of his passes.  With Robert Griffin III now dawning a Browns’ uniform, there is no doubt who is this team’s leader in the huddle.  He has gelled under Jay Gruden and his pass happy approach, averaging 273 yards per game through the air since his arrival to D.C. The team added a stud target in the rookie draft when they landed wide receiver Josh Docston and if Jordan Reed stays healthy he could become the most productive tight end in the league.

Negatives:  Despite the fact he rushed for five touchdowns a year ago, Cousins is actually one of the least mobile quarterbacks in the league. Expect some regression in that regard as teams have familiarized themselves with that look. The schedule will be tougher this year than the slate Cousins and the Redskins faced a year ago.  There is a ton of upside to the Redskins’ offense, but there are still many question marks. Durability is an issue with nearly every significant playmaker in Washington’s attack. If a few key cogs go down, Cousins numbers may quickly head south.

Final Say:  Cousins appears to be poised for low-end QB1 production and given his system and job security it would not be a bit surprising to see him finish inside the top 10 in fantasy points at the position. Fantistics favors him over some veterans like Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, and Matthew Stafford.

 

 

8/10/2016

A Look at ADP by Kyle Elfrink

I want to take a bit of a break from the usual this week.  Instead of focusing on the ADP movement, specific players, or the general storylines that have crept to the fore in the preceding week, I thought I’d keep the focus on one position and the constant decision you have to make at that spot.

As many of you know, no one likes to invest in running backs in 2016.  Too many fantasy owners have been burned by injury, ineffectiveness, and unforeseen benchings over the previous half-decade.  Plus, the game of football has devolved into a ‘pass-or-die’ affair, creating dozens of viable fantasy options at wide receiver.  In hand with the pass-heavy approach, NFL teams have also built their rosters around the idea of two and three-headed backfields to handle the little amount of rushes that are still available.

That rotation effect is now in play with 3/4th’s of the 32 NFL teams (and, maybe more).  It’s so prevalent that even RBs going in the top 20 are no great bet for over 240 carries this year.  That’s a dramatic change from a decade ago when 21 different RBs totaled at least that many attempts.  With draft season now in full action mode we’re seeing how fantasy players are choosing to handle the rotations - Are they hand-cuffing?  Do owners understand the actual nature of each NFL squad’s backfield plans?  What is the selection gap between a team’s first and second option? 

My goal this week is to answer the question ... Are those gaps wider than they should be?

·         Devonta Freeman (6th RB) or Tevin Coleman (42nd RB)

Perhaps it’s difficult to recall, but just 12 months ago, Coleman was considered by many in our world as the best option in the Atlanta backfield.  As usual, an injury tossed those opinions to the side and in their place came the excitement of Freeman.  Over a five week span in the first half, he collected over 800 yards rushing and tacked on an amazing nine TDs.  The season proved front-loaded, though, as Freeman was below-average on the ground in the second half and saw his TDs dip accordingly.  He still collected a massive amount of receptions (73 for the year) to alleviate that pain, though.

But, now, we might be back to square one.  Freeman is certainly the favorite for a majority of the carries, but that majority might be less than 60%.  In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising if his top fantasy attribute is another solid contribution in the receptions category.  Throughout the offseason and into camp the Falcons’ coaching staff has been adamant that both guys will see work this year.  They’ve repeated time and time again that they consider their backfield to be a duo and not a solo act.

The current ADP gap is much too large.  Freeman should be dropped outside the top-10 at the position and Coleman should be lifted to near the 35th spot.  A 36-spot differential should be closer to 25.

·         Doug Martin (11th RB) or Charles Sims (34th RB)

This is more like it.  Despite Martin’s fabulous return to relevancy of a year ago (over 1,400 yards rushing), he’s still far from a certain thing.  Frankly, he’s had two very strong season and two very weak seasons through his first four go-around’s in the NFL.  At the same time, Sims proved more than capable of carving out a productive role in the Bucs’ offense.  He was good for about five yards a carry last season (on 107 rush attempts) and was a true PPR-asset with more than 50 catches.  He will always have that skill on Martin so another 50+ catches should be in the cards for Sims.  Beyond that, he’s one of the best hand-cuffs in the game, right now.  Not only is he backing up a guy who has had some injury issues in the past, but Sims has also crafted a resume beyond the simple argument of ‘opportunity.’

Think of it this way ... Martin stayed healthy for 2016, produced like a Pro Bowler, and Sims still ended up as a top-20 RB in PPR set-ups!  Considering the relative cost of the two, right now, Sims is a much better snag than Martin.  The differential in ADP is fair, but could easily be turned upside-down this fall.

·         Matt Jones (20th RB) or Keith Marshall (73rd RB)

Jones tempted in his rookie year.  He definitely has the ‘look’ of a game-breaker and even showed it from time-to-time.  Unfortunately all of those moments seem to have come in cameo’s.  When he was actually granted double-digit carries, he came up short.  That happened eight times in his rookie campaign.  The first time was in Week 2 when he roasted the Rams for two scores and just over 120 yards on the ground.  That got folks amped, but it was nothing more than red herring.  In seven other efforts featuring double-digit attempts, Jones came up with a horrific total of 280 yards on 90 carries (a 3.1 ypc average).  In effect, he failed.

That rough first year didn’t stop the Redskins from lining him up as their top dog while forming their offseason plans.  A look at the relative nobody’s and no names on the Washington depth chart, plus the removal of Alfred Morris, was enough to lift Jones into the RB2 discussion.  I actually think he belongs there and that his current ADP represents fair value.

Where the ADP misses the mark is with Marshall.  Coming out of the University of Georgia, you know that Marshall has skill and ability.  But, it never came to life in the SEC and, thus, you had his stock free-falling into the 7th-round on draft day back in May.  For many, that made him little more than a lame body when it came to fantasy football draft boards.  But, earlier in the week Redskin GM Scott McCloughan appeared on SiriusXM NFL Radio and readily vocalized the idea of two guys handling duties in the Washington backfield.  He went so far as to say that Marshall was the favorite to suck away some of Jones’ work.

Jones has a good deal to prove in the preseason.  In fact, in an August run-up full of things that do not matter, Jones’ showing actually should be one to keep your eyes on.  He needs to not only have some measure of success, but he MUST hold onto the football in exhibition play (five fumbles in less than 165 touches last year).  Leading into the first round of games this week I would still slot Jones as a low-end RB2.  Marshall should probably be upgraded a good 10-15 spots purely on the off-chance that he earns 30% of the work.  I like Jones much, much more, but the lurking presence of Marshall, plus the ‘Skins’ own words creates some wobble.

·         Duke Johnson (23rd RB) or Isaiah Crowell (41st RB)

This is a battle that could go either way.  And, that’s why you see the ADPs the way they are.  The general expectation is that the Johnson-Crowell tandem is hoping to replicate their in-state neighbors to the south, Hill-Bernard.  Crowell is in the role of Hill, while Johnson mans the Bernard spot.  Furthering the comparison, Hue Jackson is now the head coach in Cleveland after a few seasons of running the offense in Cincinnati.

Crowell probably deserves his current slot, but I can’t say he interests me much.  He has shown zero ability to push opposing tacklers around and is an excellent example of a ‘plodder.’  Still, if he stays healthy for a full year (which he’s done in each of his first two years), you should expect anywhere from 160-200 carries.  Even at less than four yards a pop that play.  It especially plays if you turn that work into TDs.  Unfortunately, though, Crowell hasn’t done that, yet, with just a dozen rushing TDs over a collection of 333 career carries.  He’s a running back you settle for.  He’s not a running back you seek out.

Johnson is very different.  The receiving skill gives him a huge boost over his teammate in PPR leagues and there’s some thought that he be good for 75 catches this year.  If he nipped that number, you’re talking about a top-15 PPR RB.  With Robert Griffin III already named the starter for this season and question marks throughout the Browns’ wide receiving crew, I think Johnson is a legitimate PPR stud.  If you ring out his name in the 6th round or later this month you’ve done well. 

The gap between these two is fair.  I’m not keen on Crowell, but he will still see some quantity in the Browns system.  But, all the excitement lies with Johnson.  I don’t expect many good moments from Cleveland’s new-look attack, but if I had to pick anyone on their team, Johnson would be the guy.

·         T.J. Yeldon (32nd RB) or Chris Ivory (35th RB)

On Tuesday, the Jags latest depth chart showed that Yeldon and Ivory were ‘co-starters.’  I wouldn’t buy it.  To me, Ivory should be ahead of Yeldon and it should be by nearly 10 spots in the RB rankings.  Ivory was a force for the Jets last season and turned the effort into a big-time contract with Jacksonville.  If you look at this objectively, you have to admit that Ivory is a better bet for goal line work, 4th-quarter work, and pass receiving work.  That’s not to say that Yeldon is finished after one disappointing year.  In fact, I wouldn’t be stunned to see Yeldon handle more carries than Ivory to begin the year.  Eventually, though, I think Ivory will net more snaps and net more fantasy points than his younger stablemate.

The largest concern that I have with Ivory is, of course, his propensity for injury.  He runs hard and he charges into tacklers.  That leaves him noticeably beat up by years’ end.  Jacksonville knows this and will probably ‘protect’ him early by giving a few more attempts to Yeldon.  So be patient early on.  You likely won’t have a Week 1 fantasy starter in Ivory, but I think that that as the leaves turn, so will the Jags’ personnel usage.

·         Justin Forsett (38th RB), Buck Allen (44th RB), Kenneth Dixon (46th RB)

A simple look-see at the above ADP marks provide evidence of how unsettled and unknown things are in the Raven backfield.  Early camp reports say Forsett (knee) looks healthy and ready to regain his starting gig.  That will probably hold leading into the season.  I have questions, though, if it will hold leading into October.  Allen showed plenty in Forsett’s absence last year with 45 catches in Baltimore’s PPR-friendly attack.  His ability to haul in throws is immensely better than Forsett’s, so I would still count on him for load of 3rd-down work.  Dixon was drafted out of Louisiana Tech and is also known as a catch-first tailback.  All in all, we just have a convoluted situation that is best avoided.  The ADP marks are legitimate and the slight difference between the three is warranted.  But, to be frank, I believe Baltimore will be flip-flopping their running workloads all year long.  When you think they’ve found their guy for the long haul, then a new injury, a new matchup, or a new offensive wrinkle, will make them look like ‘New England West.’  

·         Matt Forte (12th RB) or Bilal Powell (48th)

Forte’s career has been one of greatness most every time for fantasy players.  But, last year gave us our first signs that the threads of that success weren’t going to hold forever.  The Bears went younger, while the Jets took aim at getting one last very good season out of the free agent vet.  As with every single running back who enters their fourth decade (age 30), New York will monitor Forte’s overall workload.  He’ll still be ‘the guy’ for the most part, but we could see entire drives where the quietly effective Powell (or even Khiry Robinson) takes over.  That’s smart from the Jets perspective, but it puts a damper on anyone who thinks Forte should regularly see 20 touches per week.

Forte is going a bit too high at 12 and should be dropped a few slots.  Powell might be due a slight bump in the other direction, but repeating his 47 catches of a season ago will be difficult unless Forte comes up limping.  Remember, Forte will still handle a nice amount of 3rd down chances (he’s averaged over 60 catches per year over eight NFL campaigns.  I would love Forte as an RB2, but would not see Powell as a necessary part of my fantasy team equation.

You can hear Kyle each weeknight on ‘The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive’ from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.

Contained within the Fantistics Draft Software is the ability to choose different ADP providers (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, NFBC, MFL, MFL PPR, and blended). Other than the usefulness of using the different ADPs to know what others are thinking, this also allows us the ability to complete different mock drafts using different ADP sources, giving you a different draft in each scenario. Click on the Web update feature in the Draft Advisory Software to download the latest ADPs today.

Contained within our player projections software is a notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a look at some of the Quarterbacks that will be part of your 2016 draft (In no particular order):


Bradford,Sam Struggles with the deep pass, but is serviceable in the west coast offense. Wentz will push him at some point however. Only 5 Quality starts in '15, with a well below average .45 FP per attempt.

Taylor,Tyrod Above average .79 FP per attempt in 2015, with a decent 25% Red Zone success rate on runs within the Red Zone. Came through with 5 Quality Starts in final 8 games, and this came despite not throwing for over 300 yards in any of his games. Schedule stays neutral with 7 favorable and 4 neutral matchups. Favorably his offensive line is considered one of the best in protecting the pass rush.

Dalton,Andy Posted a solid 10 Quality Starts in 13 starts with an overall QB rating of 106.3 last season. His line held tight, as Dalton was only sacked 20 times. Working against him once again this season is the SOS, which rates out as a D+ again this season.

Gabbert,Blaine Enters a new system that will increase his attempts considerably this season, one in which he should perform decently in. Working against him is a miserable OL (D+) and SOS (D+).

Newton,Cam Ripped it open in the 2nd half with 7 Quality starts in final 8 games (13 overall). Averaged an elite .88 FP per attempt. Most impressively, he did it without any brand name receivers (Other than his TE). His 2015 will be difficult to replicate, but he's a pretty safe selection as a top two QB.

Tannehill,Ryan Decent Oline (C+), yet was sacked 45 times last season. Only 4 QS in 16 games, despite 6 300 yard games. Will need to step it up in the TD department to achieve QB2 success. Schedule stays favorable with 7 favorable matchups projected.

Luck,Andrew Struggled with only 3 QS in his 7 games. Oline was deficient, and although improved, it will still struggle to be league average. Schedule remains neutral with 6 projected favorable and 4 neutral matchups. Needs high volume to be a fantasy top 5 QB.

Fantistics Joe Everett breaks down all of the Top Undervalued IDP players to know in your draft in our member section today. There are over 400 IDP players projected in our 2016 Fantistics Draft Advisory software. Here's a look at some Linebackers to keep an eye on:

 

LINEBACKERS

 

Deion Jones, Atlanta Falcons - [ ADP: #32 LB ] The rookie from LSU is poised to have a big season, as our take is that Paul Worrilow has fallen out of favor and the new coaching staff drafted Jones 52nd overall for a reason. He projects as our top rookie linebacker with 90+ tackles and a poor man’s version of Bobby Wagner that should thrive in Dan Quinn’s scheme.

Gerald Hodges, San Francisco 49ers - [ ADP: Undrafted LB ] The 49ers will start Gerald Hodges regularly inside next to Navorro Bowman and Hodges has flashed big time hitting ability when given the playing time. He could be a #3 linebacker in tackle heavy formats this year because of how much San Francisco runs out of their base package and the 49ers also profile as a team that will be playing from behind often.

Blake Martinez, Green Bay Packers - [ ADP: Undrafted LB ] Martinez has been running with the first team in camp and the coaching staff is very high on the rookie from Stanford. He could feasibly be the exclusive sub package linebacker in coverage for Green Bay which will result in a lot of playing time, as the Packers should be ahead in most games playing zone and prevent.

 

FANTISTICS.com  BEST BUYS

 

  • KJ Wright, Seattle Seahawks - [ ADP: #39 LB ] Wright is vastly underrated, as he has racked up two 100+ tackle seasons in a row but doesn't have the big name recognition that the linebackers he regularly outscores do. We have him projected to finish ten spots ahead of his current ADP.

  • Melvin Ingram, San Diego Chargers - [ ADP: #43 LB ] Ingram quietly posted 10.5 sacks last year and finally played a full 16 game season. He showed off all that potential that we saw during his monster senior season at South Carolina. He is a value in drafts, considering he still doesn't have a tone of name value and most owners will pass on him.

  • Benardrick McKinney, Houston Texans - [ ADP: #51 LB ] McKinney's second half of the season rookie numbers prorate to 86 total tackles and two sacks. He is reportedly having a great off-season and will be used even more as a pass rusher, so we expect him to take the next step in his second year.

  • David Harris, New York Jets - [ ADP: #56 LB ] Rinse, wash, repeat. That's how Harris' career has gone. 100-110 total tackles, a handful of sacks and some forced fumbles thrown in. He is insanely consistent year to year but he is the 56th linebacker off the board and we have him forecasted to finish in the Top-20.

  • Anthony Hitchens, Dallas Cowboys - [ ADP: Undrafted LB ] Anthony Hitchens will see a majority of the playing time inside next to Sean Lee after Rolando McClain’s suspension. Considering how injury prone Sean Lee has been throughout his career and the fact that Andrew Gachkar is currently hurt, Hitchens could end up playing a ton of snaps this season.

 

 

8/09/2016

After missing nearly a week of action, Alshon Jeffrey (hamstring) was back on the practice field on Monday for the Bears.  Chicago placed the franchise tag on their top wide receiver this offseason partially because of concerns of his durability issues…Sammy Watkins (foot) passed his physical and was taken off the Bills’ PUP list on Monday. That’s a huge plus for Watkins and his Week 1 playing status…The Eagles will be without wide receiver Jordan Matthews (knee) for 2-4 weeks as he deals with “a bone bruise”, according to the Philadelphia Daily News.  A loss of Matthews would be devastating to an offense starving for weapons…The Dolphins have listed Jay Ajayi as their No. 1 running back on their initial preseason depth chart, of newly signed free agent Arian Foster. Expect the two running backs to share the workload for most of the season in Miami…After initially believing the Detroit tight end Eric Ebron suffered an Achilles’ injury, ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting it is actually a “high ankle sprain” issue Ebron is dealing with. That is better news than originally anticipated and could still mean he’ll be available for Week 1…Cleveland wide receiver Josh Gordon (suspension) has plenty of work to do to get back into shape before he’s eligible to return in Week 5.  He “will be the first to tell you he needs to lose weight,” according to head coach Hue Jackson…Denver has listed Mark Sanchez and Travis Siemian as co-starters at quarterback on their initial depth chart…The Redskins will not dress wide receivers Jamison Crowder (hamstring) or Josh Doctson (Achilles) in Thursday’s preseason opener… Buffalo left tackle Cordy Glenn (ankle) is expected to miss the entire preseason. Glenn hasn’t missed a game since 2012.  Dan Clasgens.

The 2016 Rookie Runningbacks – By Michael Waldo

Ezekiel Elliott (Round 1, Pick 4 – Cowboys)

College – Playing behind Carlos Hyde as a freshman, Ezekiel Elliott barely saw the field in 2013.  That changed in 2014 when he climbed the depth chart and claimed the starting running back job for the Ohio State Buckeyes.  Thanks to a very strong finish to the year, he helped the Buckeyes beat Alabama for the national title, but on the whole, Elliott wasn’t overly dominant and finished the year Big 10 Conference honorable mention.  Elliott rode his strong finish in 2014 into a great junior year in 2015 while being named a 2nd Team All-American and the Big 10 Offensive Player of the Year.  He finished the season with 1,821 rushing yards and 23 rushing touchdowns with a 6.3 average yards per carry.  Despite forgoing his final year of eligibility, Elliott still managed to finish 2nd on the All-Time Rushing list for the Buckeyes, passing Eddie George, but falling short of a near impossible Archie Griffin (5,589 yards).  While in college, Elliott was a successful runner both on the inside and to the outside.  In addition to very good acceleration, his 6’0’’ 225 pound frame gives him the body he needs to muscle up to opposing defenders, helping him break tackles with ease. 

Redraft Outlook – Ezekiel Elliott is the first rookie running back to be a consensus first-rounder in the fantasy game since Ryan Mathews in 2010.  Other quality backs have been in the conversation from a skills perspective, but none have landed in an offense as favorable as Dallas.  The Cowboys led the league in both runs and passes blocked in 2015 and the outlook for 2016 is just as rosy.  Elliott is no stranger to playing behind good offensive lines considering his Buckeyes were among the best in the nation for both of the last two seasons.  Strictly looking at 2016 production, it certainly sounds like the Cowboys are committed to giving their rookie a chance to run away with the starting job.  As we’ve seen the last two seasons in Dallas, anyone with a pulse can succeed at running back in that offense (I’m looking at you, Darren McFadden).  Add in the fact that Elliott was clearly the most talented back in this year’s draft class and we have the makings of something really special.  Unfortunately, assault allegations and a training camp hamstring injury have taken some of the shine off his currently draft value, which might open the door for newly signed Alfred Morris or rehabbing McFadden to share some carries, especially in the beginning of the season.  The assault allegations are reportedly unfounded and lack hard evidence, so that situation will likely resolve itself, but the hamstring injury is definitely a situation to monitor.  As it stands today, taking Elliott in the first round might be the kind of high risk/high reward decision that either wins you your league, or forces you to battle for the last playoff spot in Week 13. 

Dynasty Outlook – The future looks bright for Elliott, but it’s very possible that he’ll never be in a better position to succeed than he is in 2016.  As we mentioned earlier, he does have a little competition with both Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden on the Cowboys’ depth chart, and while it might feel like both of those players have been around forever, they’re just 27 and 28 years old, respectively.  Nonetheless, the Cowboys reached for Elliott with the 4th overall pick of the 2016 draft because they believe he can be their 3-down back for the foreseeable future.  As long as the ‘Boys can keep their o-line together, Elliott will continue to be valued as a 1st or 2nd round pick for years to come. 

Fantistics Projection: 261 rushing attempts, 1,320 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, 46 receptions, 344 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown. 


Fantistics Michael Waldo breaks down all of the Rookie QBs to know in your draft in our member section today.

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Ertz,Zach - PHI/TE: If Travis Kelce’s success in Kansas City is any indicator, fantasy owners should expect big things ahead for Zach Ertz this year in fantasy. "Tight end is a strength of this roster, this offensive unit," OC Frank Reich told reporters. "If you look at Doug’s [Pederson] system and what they did in Kansas City with their tight ends and how we’ll utilize them here, it’ll be very consistent with that." Ertz has a great chance to outperform his current TE8 NFFC ADP (94.69) draft spot.

Player InjuryCook,Jared - GB/TE: The Packers are hopeful to have tight end Jared Cook (knee) back on the practice field “next week”, according to quarterback Aaron Rodgers. It appears that Cook is nearing a return and he needs as much time as possible to get acquainted with his new offense. Green Bay is not taking many chances though. They worked out 33-year old free agent Kellen Winslow Jr. over the weekend. Cook has plenty to prove before we can recommend him a draft day option in most formats.

FYI
Abdullah,Ameer - DET/RB: Lions’ running back Ameer Abdullah is hoping to take his game to the next level during his second season of action in 2016. He told the Detroit Free Press that he wants to “be the guy you can count on in any situation." Currently the Lions plan on using a running back-by-committee approach, but there’s no doubt Abdullah figures to get the largest share of that. He’s nice mid-round option as you look to build depth to your fantasy backfield based off his potentially high ceiling.

Griffin III,Robert - CLE/QB: Cleveland head coach Hue Jackson announced that Robert Griffin III will be the team’s starting quarterback over veteran Josh McCown. It’s not a surprise that the newly signed quarterback will get the first crack at running the offense. However, RGIII will have to play decently to keep the job as he’ll certainly be on a short leash. Griffin should only be considered in deeper leagues or formats that require multiple starting quarterbacks in their lineups.

Lockett,Tyler - SEA/WR: It’s becoming more and more apparent that Seattle wide receiver Tyler Lockett is poised for big things ahead. Add ESPN’s Sheil Kapadia to the latest beat writer to jump on the bandwagon. “It’s clear that the team is going to find ways to get him consistent touches on a weekly basis,” according to Kapadia. Lockett should easily build on his 51/664/6 stat line from a year ago.

Player InjuryParker,Devante - MIA/WR: DeVante Parker (hamstring) remains on the sidelines in the Dolphins’ training camp. He has been sidelined for the past week with the injury, but the team is hopeful that the second-year receiver “will be back soon” per the Miami Herald. The potential is there for big things from Parker in 2016, but it’s not a great sign that he’s already missed a week of action. He was limited by injuries during his rookie campaign as well and only had four catches in the first 11 weeks of the season.

Treadwell,Laquon - MIN/WR: The opening week of training camp has not gone well for Minnesota rookie wide receiver. The Vikings released their initial depth chart and Treadwell is behind Charles Johnson currently as the X receiver. Meanwhile second-year wideout
Stefon Diggs, who is currently slated to start as the Z receiver, is looking stellar early on in camp. Treadwell has a ton of talent, but his game may not be as ready as his first-round pedigree would suggest.

FYI
Sims,Charles - TB/RB: Doug Martin had a great 2015 and got paid this offseason, but running back Charles Sims is more likely to be the Tampa Bay runner to outperform his price in 2016. In a backup role he had 51 receptions last season while averaging 11 yards per catch (second-best mark in the league for running backs). He rushed for 529 yards, averaging 4.9 yards per carry (same as Martin) too. There is a growing sentiment that there could be more of time share this year in the Bucs’ backfield then we saw a year ago. His current ADP of 14.09 makes Sims an extremely appealing option for owners as they go to build their bench.

Winston,Jameis - TB/QB: Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston showed well as a rookie, averaging 253 passing yards per contest and throwing 22 touchdowns. He rushed for another 210 yards and six scores. With offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter taking over as head coach and Winston entering his second season, the Bucs are expected to get more aggressive in their play calling. When you consider that Winston’s three primary pass catchers missed a combined 16 games a year ago, the stars are aligning for a big increase in production in 2016. He should be viewed as a high-end QB2 for now, but he definitely possesses top 10-upside.

Thomas,Michael - NO/WR: Rookie wide receiver Michael Thomas has been drawing plenty of raves early as the Saints’ Training Camp. Speaking on Fantistics Insider Football on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio on Sunday ESPN.com’s Mike Triplett said, “At this point Michael Thomas can’t help to be drafted too high (in fantasy). He’s an exciting, upside player.” Thomas is currently WR55 in the latest NFFC ADP, but once the preseason starts and people get their eyes on this rookie expect that number to skyrocket. Be cautious though there are still plenty of mouths to feed in the Saints’ offense so his opportunities could be somewhat limited.

FYI
Cooks,Brandin - NO/WR: Brandin Cooks is coming off a great 2015 campaign where he pulled in 84 passes for 1,138 yards and nine touchdowns. Now, entering his third season the expectations are high for the Saints’ wideout. He’s on the small side, but Cooks possesses great playmaking ability. He scored eight touchdowns in his final nine games last year, including scoring plays of 71, 69, and 54 yards. Don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on him as early as Round 2.

FYI
Stewart,Jonathan - CAR/RB: The Panthers top running back last year was Jonathan Stewart. He averaged 76 yards per game on the ground and scored seven touchdowns in his 13 contests. If you add in the playoffs, he finished with 1,207 yards and 10 scores in 16 games. However, he doesn’t offer anything as a pass catcher out of the backfield, finishing with just 20 receptions during that span. Add in his durability issues (four years in a row he’s missed at least games due to injury) and Stewart’s upside is very limited. Owners will be wise to pass on the Carolina running back and go for RB2 / RB3 with a higher ceiling and less risk.

FYI
Newton,Cam - CAR/QB: Carolina made its way to the Super Bowl in 2015 on the back of MVP Cam Newton, who threw for a career-high 35 touchdowns and lit up fantasy scoreboards everywhere with his 636 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. He was easily fantasy’s top producing quarterback. Only 40 percent of quarterbacks to be the top producer in a season went on to finish in the top 12 over the last 20 years and only 25 percent of them have stayed at that No. 1 spot.

FYI
Freeman,Devonta - ATL/RB: Once he got the opportunity to be the team’s primary running back last year, Devonta Freeman took off for the Falcons. During September and October last season, Freeman was the toast of the fantasy world. However, he fizzled down the stretch of the season as he began to wear down. In the final eight weeks of the year he wasn’t even a top 10 back, averaging 77 yards fewer with just four scores in those seven contests.

FYI
Jones,Julio - ATL/WR: Julio Jones finished with 136 receptions a year ago, tied with Antonio Brown for the league lead. It marked the third time in eight years that a wide receiver in Kyle Shannahan’s offense earned that honored. There’s no question the volume will be there for Jones, which is why we have him ranked so highly here at Fantistics. The only concerns with Jones are touchdowns and his durability. He’s only scored on six of his 24 targets inside the 10-yard line the last three years and he’s missed games in three of the last five seasons.

Today's Fantistics Notes brought to us by
Dan Clasgens

 

 

8/07/2016

Not convinced that Todd Gurley is a top 3 RB? We are! Consider that he finished as a top 5 RB, despite only playing in 41% of team snaps!

Contained within our player projections software is a notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a look at some of the Runningbacks that will be part of your 2016 draft (In no particular order):

Gurley,Todd Production waned a little in the 2nd half 111/444 4.0 YPC, but his schedule did toughen up considerably (D grade) and the offense became predictable. Still lots to be encouraged about including his .81 Fantasy Points per attempt, 28% Red Zone success rate, and 81% reception rate (with an impressive 9.0 YPR). Look for his biggest increase to come in the receiving numbers, as a 80+% reception rate warrants more than 27 targets. Still finished as a top 5 RB (non PPR), despite only playing in 41% of the team's offensive snaps. Lots to like here despite the rebuilding of talent around him.

Crowell,Isaiah Solid receiving numbers out of the backfield (86% - 9.6 YPR), but under utilized as a receiver with only 22 targets. Could be a surprise if they open that up for him. There's not much behind him in talent, so Crowell will continue to be unsung, yet productive.

McKinnon,Jerick Took in about 16% of the snaps behind AD last season, and did very well averaging 5.1 YPC. However there is little value here unless AD gets hurt or whips out the switch.

Freeman,Devonta Sure the 2nd half fall was pretty dramatic, but lets not discount the fact that he faced some of the best defenses against the run in the 2nd half (D+ rating). Even with that he averaged 20 points a game over his final 3 games. Only RB with over 1,000 rushing yards to also have over 70 receptions, and he did that with a 75% target rate. He also posted a very impressive 18% red zone success rate. Freeman was tied for 6th in the league with a 76% success rate on 3rd and short. Playing behind one of the best offensive lines in aiding the run (A), and while he might not attain last year's lofty 321 fantasy Points, he should be pushing 275 in PPR leagues.

Sims,Charles Was solid running behind and in compliment to Doug Martin last season, playing in 42% of offensive snaps. 51 Receptions (73%) made him a deeper league PPR option. Benefited from an A rated schedule in the 2nd half, and is projected to have a B+ schedule this season.

Hyde,Carlos Should see a nice boost in receptions, caught only 11 last year, but has been averaging 74% reception rate...so that should increase in Chip Kelly's offense, which is expected to be high volume. They will need to be shifty as the offensive line does have exploitable holes for the defense.

 

FYIRB Jordan Howard - The fifth round draft pick from Indiana is looking to become a third down, short yardage package player for the Bears. Howard will be a threat to the workload of Langford, but what we don’t know is how much of a threat. One thing we do know is John Fox has only once let a running back have over 60 percent of the carries. All the signs point to a minor running back by committee but a lot of that will be up to Howard himself. Howard currently has an ADP of 15.07 a guy you can wait out until the final rounds of your draft.

FYIWE Corey Coleman - You have sleepers, late round heros, then enter Corey Coleman. Coleman is already making an impact at camp for the Browns. Players and coaches have been praising his talents all week long. While only being listed at 5’11 185 will concern some people, his career at Baylor was very impressive. In 2015 he lit up Big 12 defenses for 1,363 yards receiving on 74 receptions and 20 touchdowns. Production is not limited here and the Browns need playmakers. With an ADP of 9.04 and moving up everyday, Coleman is a guy you need to keep close tabs on during the preseason.

FYIRB Alex Collins - Collins, a fifth round draft pick has been getting an extended look with the first team early on in training camp with Seattle. While he likely won’t be anywhere near a workhorse back and is limited athletically but he could jam up the position for the Seahawks. Even with a lack of short speed burst, Collins found a way to score 20 touchdowns for Arkansas last year. Collins is currently undraftable but a guy were going to want to follow through preseason because his touches may also impact the likes of Thomas Rawls and the other backs in Seattle.

FYIWR Sterling Shepard - It appears the Giants are going to give Shepard every opportunity to be the number two guy for Eli Manning. At Oklahoma last year Shepard caught 86 balls for 1,288 yards and 11 touchdowns. The rookie still has to prove himself in a live setting. However with all the attention going towards Odell Beckham Jr, Eli may be looking Shepards way more than we think right now. Especially as Shepard appears to be more of an underneath possession type of player with big play ability. The ADP of 8.08 feels high but the Giants need him to have a productive year.

FYIRB Le’Veon Bell - The bad news, the suspension may indeed stand (although they are publicly saying that it may not). The good news, Bell is claiming to be 100 percent again. We all know Bell is the top fantasy back in the world when he is healthy and not being suspended for skipping a drug test. Yes it is encouraging to know Bell can make jump cuts and appears to have his speed back. However with the four game suspension he may be more risk than reward on draft day depending on your personal preference of draft strategy. If you can team him up with someone like DeAngelo Williams, he could win you a championship down the line.

FYIWR Tyler Boyd - The fact of the matter is Boyd, will have to make plays for the Bengals in 2016. The rookie is going to be called on to pick up the slack of losing Sanu and Marvin Jones. It appears Boyd is progressing nicely as Andy Dalton was quoted saying the rookie has made a “huge jump” from OTA’s through training camp. Boyd has an ADP of 16.09 puts him on the bubble of draft day decisions. We will have to wait and see how he looks in his first preseason action before really determining what to expect from the rookie from Pitt. Regardless the Bengals need playmakers and Boyd will get every opportunity to make plays.

FYIQB Carson Palmer - Carson was quite the feel good story of 2015. After being hurt for most of 2014, Palmer returned with great success. Palmer threw for 4,671 yards and 35 touchdowns, not to mention he threw for over 300 yards in 9 of his 17 games in 2015. With the likes of Fitzgerald, Brown, and David Johnson making plays for the Cardinals, Palmer should have similar success in 2016. His ADP of 6.11 puts him squarely in position for you to load up on skill guys before making him your QB1 this year, enjoy the luxury Carson Palmer provides weekly.

FYIWR Kevin White - We have seen White called everything from a beast in workouts to a real work in progress over the last month. The Bears are obviously hoping White has a productive year after missing his whole rookie campaign due to a foot injury. At West Virginia, White somewhat came on to the scene out of nowhere his senior year before dazzling scouts at the combine with his 4.35 forty yard dash time. It will be interesting to see how White looks in preseason action for the Bears, it would appear he will get a lot of opportunities to showcase his skill set before the season actually starts. With an ADP of 7.04 which feels really fair, you may very well be looking at a guy with huge playmaking upside the lacks the route running tools at the moment to be consistent week to week. Let’s just label White and a boom or bust talent for right now.

FYIQB Jared Goff - Do we draft Goff with our last pick in the draft? Are you buying the hype he won’t be the week one starter for the Rams? Before coming the number one draft pick Goff lit up the west coast every time he took the field for Cal. As a junior last year Goff threw for 4,714 yards to go along with 43 touchdowns. Granted, Cal runs an air rain system so the ball was being thrown all over the lot that still doesn’t take away the physical tools Goff adds to his arsenal. The 6’4 quarterback will have to prove himself in fantasy circles, his ADP of 15.09 certainly means we don’t have to reach for him and could even wait to add him on the waiver line.

FYIWR Brandin Cooks - Cooks is coming off an 2015 season where he saw 129 targets, snagged 84 of them for 1,138 yards and 9 touchdowns. Cooks is very dynamic, yet very hard to predict from a consistency standpoint. If you take a look at the last five games in 2015, Cooks had three games where he went for over 100 yards receiving with a touchdown in those three games, perhaps a sign of good things to come. Another interesting note, for being listed at 5’10 Cooks still drew 10 red zone targets. Brees definitely has trust to throw the ball his way, the rest will be up to Cooks to become more reliable game to game for the Saints. Cooks currently supports an ADP of 2.10 and carries for merit in PPR leagues at that asking price.

FYIRB Melvin Gordon - How many people are still upset from the rookie campaign we saw from Melvin Gordon? Quite frankly, I think we are all a little uneasy about how things went last year for Gordon. With an ADP of 7.05 we are definitely looking at a back that is flying under the radar. The fumbles and the fact Gordon didn’t find the endzone once last year are a cause for concern, however we will see a much more comfortable back in 2016.

FYIWR Markus Wheaton - If you like to roll the dice and enjoy wildcards then Wheaton is your man. The Steelers will be without Martavis Bryant for the entire 2016 season, one would only imagine Wheaton will get every chance to be the legit number two guy opposite of Antonio Brown. If you take a look at his last six games of 2015, Wheaton had a 200 yard receiving game against the Seahawks and scored four touchdowns during those final six games. The productivity can be there and Big Ben has always spoke highly of his skill set. One would like to think he will easily pay off his ADP of 11.12 but hard to recommend reaching for him as many will, very high risk/reward kind of guy in 2016.

FYIWR Brandon Marshall - Listen, we know Marshall can be a headcase like we’ve seen lately all over Jets coverage. None of that matters right now, what matters for us is his productivity. A year ago Marshall scored 10 touchdowns on 25 targets in the red zone. On top of that the physical wide out had ten games where he recorded over 100 yards receiving. Age may be catching up to Marshall but the Jets are still going to look his way a lot in the red zone that is a guarantee.

RB Charles Sims - This will be the year Sims really cuts into the Doug Martin workload. A year ago Sims went for over 500 yards rushing and over 500 yards receiving as well. Sims is a very talented multi purpose back, just doesn’t have the role of a starting back in the league. Sims is the perfect weekly flex play for any fantasy team, especially in PPR leagues. The ADP of 11.09 is really low for the volume and productivity Sims will provide you in 2016.

FYIQB Eli Manning - The Giants are looking to push the pace in 2016. Eli is always a risk for viotile wild game logs, but he is coming off back to back years where he only threw 14 interceptions and at least 30 touchdowns. In 2015 he only had six games where he threw for over 300 yards but made up for that with his 35 touchdown passes. You won’t have to reach for Eli as his ADP stands at 8.06 but all signs point towards another great year from Eli and the Giants offense.

Player InjuryTE Eric Ebron According to the Detroit Free Press, The Detroit Lions suffered a potentially “devastating” injury in their annual mock game today when third-year tight end Eric Ebron had to be carted off the field with a lower right leg injury. More on this in the days ahead.

FYIWR Jarvis Landry - According to the Miami Herald, The Dolphins would love if 5-7 rookie jitterbug Jakeem Grant can win both the punt and kickoff return jobs, allowing them to reduce Jarvis Landry’s workload. At Fantistics, we expect that he'll still be involved in punt returns though.

Today's Fantistics Notes brought to us by Adam Funk

 

8/06/2016

Things are heating up around the league as we approach the Hall of Fame Game on Sunday night.  At Jets practice on Friday Brandon Marshall and Darrelle Revis got into a scuffle that lead to Marshall throwing a punch.  The two were jawing at one another throughout practice, which created the confrontation.  The two will continue to face off in the coming days, so we’ll see if it escalates…No major injuries popped up Friday, but there’s plenty to keep an eye on.  Rookie Reggie Ragland went down with a non-contact knee injury, which is rarely a good sign.  Coach Rex Ryan was concerned for his rookie, especially as the Bills are without fellow rookie Shaq Lawson on the defensive side of the ball…In Miami Jay Ajayi returned to practice and split first team touches with Arian Foster.   Though Ajayi is dealing with a knee that isn’t 100 percent, he is back to get work in and hopefully prevent Foster from stealing his opportunity as the lead back.  At this point it’s looking more and more like the Dolphins will lean on Foster and mix Ajayi in as the backup.  With Foster’s injury record, Ajayi is still likely to have some strong value this season…Ryan Mathews also returned to practice on Friday.  He will immediately return to the lead back role for the Eagles, sending Darren Sproles back to his passing role.  Mathews is intriguing this year as he is the surefire number one, but he does carry with him some injury concerns as he’s finished a full 16 games just once in his six year NFL career…Dion Lewis is a bit of a mystery early on as some reports on Friday predicted a spot on the reserve/PUP list to start the season, while later reports claimed that isn’t the case.  The Patriots appear to be just playing it safe with their top running back, but we’ll know more as the preseason begins.  Lewis was a stud in limited action last year and likely would be leaned upon in the first four games with Tom Brady gone…Aaron Rodgers and Brett Hundley are both expected to be out for Sunday’s HOF game.  Hundley is nursing an ankle injury that he doesn’t want to aggravate, while Rodgers is likely to be absent as a safety precaution for Green Bay…Joey Bosa continues to be absent as he and the Chargers still cannot come to terms on his contract.  With the preseason set to start, he is the only first rounder unsigned…Rookie QB Dak Prescott is signed and in a good spot to backup Tony Romo this season.  With Kellen Moore out of the way, it is now Prescott’s chance to prove his value.  Apparently he hasn’t done much of that yet as he has struggled in camp.  He’ll have the preseason to work out the kinks in order to carve out his role.  If Dallas does not bring in a veteran, Prescott is likely to make his way to a start this season at some point as Romo hasn’t finished a full season since 2012…A rookie who continues to impress is Sterling Shepard.  The Giants are thrilled with what they have seen as he just continues making plays at practice.  Shepard ranks as the top rookie WR currently and he’s likely to continue to gain momentum.  The only issue could be whether he will start to get overdrafted as a result of the preseason hype…Notable signings Friday include the Saints bringing John Kuhn aboard to help bolster their rushing attack this season.  Kuhn isn’t a fantasy asset, but he’ll assist Mark Ingram in upping his totals for New Orleans...Former Saint Lance Moore was picked up by the Falcons as they look to add some depth.  Moore isn’t likely to find his way onto the fantasy radar this season, though he could earn a shot in the slot for the Falcons…The Cardinals extended both Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald.  Palmer is coming off the best season of his career and 2016 should bring close to similar results as long as he remains healthy.  Fitzgerald had a career high 109 receptions last season, just as many thought he was on the way out.  Arizona now has him under contract for two more years.   With his impressive 2015 season, Fitzgerald is in danger of being drafted too early this season, especially with Michael Floyd making some big strides at the end of the year last year.  .  Jeremy McGoldrick

8/05/2016

Jeff Fischer reportedly is hinting towards Case Keenum at QB to start the season, which pretty much limits the Rams draft pool to Todd Gurley and whichever handcuff you might want to get. Keenum ranks as the #49 QB at the moment, but he’ll likely move up a bit but not much. In 5 games last year he threw for 828 yards and four touchdowns against a lone interception. At best he’s the tail end QB in 2QB leagues, but without major weapons at WR and Todd Gurley slated to carry the load on offense, whichever QB start for the Rams is very limited..... Vontaze Burfict was taken off of the NFI list with a knee injury and was able to practice with the team on Thursday. Burfict is still suspended for the first three games and coach Marvin Lewis has already said the Burfict won’t play in any of the preseason games, but seeing him back this early is definitely good has his knee will be 100% by the time he’s able to return to the field.... Matt Forte might miss the Jets’ opening preseason game which likely means that Bilal Powell will get some extra touches in a backfield where it’s already being reported that the two are going to “split carries.” Forte is nursing a hamstring injury that he tweaked in practice, but the Jets would likely want to keep extra touches off of him anyways in the preseason just to keep him fresh for the start of the season. It’s a situation to monitor for sure, but as of now it doesn’t sound as of now that it’s too serious of an injury..... In a turn of events, with Justin Forsett and Kenneth Dixon receiving most of the industry focus, reports are coming out of Ravens’ camp that former Browns’ RB Terrance West is impressing quite a bit out of that backfield. With Forsett getting older and Dixon already suffering an injury, West could be in line for more carries than we all originally thought. In 2014 with Cleveland, West rushed for 673 yards but his big production came through the air as he hauled in 63 passes. He’s currently the 103rd projected back in our software and is undrafted according to ADP so he may be a name to watch this preseason.... The injuries just keeping happening and happening for Alshon Jeffery as he’s now nursing a hamstring injury. We all know what Alshon can be when he’s 100%, he’s a WR1 on almost a weekly basis. We need to watch him really closely this preseason and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s VERY limited in every preseason game this fall.... While it seems like the Giants backfield may be heading towards a RBBC, the Giants coaching staff apparently wants Rashad Jennings to take the load. He finished last season very strong rushing for 4.8 YPC in the second half of this season, so you would think they’d carry it over to this next season. However, Jennings is over the 30 year old mark which at times can be the kiss of death for running backs and the team did invest a 5th round draft pick in Paul Perkins from UCLA. It’ll be an interesting situation to watch this preseason as all the backs in contention should get chances to show what they are able to do.... Since being released by the Rams, Nick Foles reunited with Andy Reid in Kansas City. Foles will serve as the backup to Alex Smith and should Smith go down with an injury, Foles actually may be fantasy relevant again as the offensive situation in KC is worlds better than it is in LA.... Sammie Coates is having a big camp for the Steelers and is right now looking to fill the void that Martavis Bryant left with his yearlong suspension. Coates caught one pass last season, but his skill set matches Bryant’s more than Markus Wheaton who is going nine rounds before Coates according to our ADP. If I have to pay 11th round value for Wheaton, I’m just going to wait on Coates because even if Wheaton does get the starting nod, the Steelers run enough 3WR sets that Coates could still be a homerun play every week.... Colin Kaepernick is apparently looking good in training camp so far, which is positive news since he was nursing a shoulder injury throughout the offseason. We all fantasize about what he can do in the Chip Kelly offense, and it sounds like there’s a chance we may get to see it. Kaepernick makes guys like Torrey Smith more appealing as you combine Smith’s deep speed and Kaep’s arm it could make for a nice combo. However, guys like Bruce Ellington (who is also getting sleeper buzz)  will take a hit as Kaep’s skillset doesn’t match the short passing game quite as much. He’s currently he #38 QB for Fantistics but if he does win the job he could be a homerun shot in 2QB leagues.... Kony Ealy returned to practice after being in concussion protocol for the last week or so. Ealy is a huge part of what the Panthers’ are looking to do on defense, especially after his coming out party in the Super Bowl. He owns a nice blend of speed and power that could wreak havoc on QBs this season..... The Dallas Cowboys are reportedly interested in trading for Josh McCown to be the backup to Tony Romo, but it appears that the Browns have no interest in dealing him as he’s currently in a QB battle with Robert Griffin III for the starting job in Cleveland. If McCown were to get dealt it would mean the team has full faith in RGIII to lead the team, but there are no indications that they are feeling that way..... Ezekiel Elliot is going to miss a chunk of time with a hamstring injury, and there’s no real timetable on his return. In case you’ve been living under a rock since the NFL Draft, Elliot is the rookie back you want, and he’s the first rookie running back that I can really think of that’s gone first round in drafts. It’s a combiniation of talent and the HOF caliber offensive line in Dallas that has him the #6 RB in Fantistics software before even taking a snap in the NFL.  You’re going to have to pay up to get him this year if you want him..... Devante Parker missed another day of practice with a hamstring injury and the Dolphins are going to be very careful with their second year wideout. While he only caught 52% of the balls thrown his way, the ones he did catch went for 19 yard a reception. He’s an excellent compliment to Jarvis Landry’s PPR machine skillset, so Parker has a lot of opportunity to flourish in Miami this year. He’s currently going in the 6th round of drafts..... After Brandin Cooks was fallen on by a teammate Wednesday, the third year wideout was held out of practice Thursday just to be cautious. It doesn’t sound like the injury is anything serious. Cooks ranks as a WR1 in Fantistics’ projection slotting in at the #12 spot among WRs. Last year he racked up 1,100 yards and we project him to have an increase in usage this year, finishing over 1,200 yards for the season...Reports are saying that Tyrann Mathieu is about two weeks out from being able to participate in practice which is fantastic news for the Cardinals defense which ranks among one of the league’s best. Mathieu is recovering from his ACL tear that he suffered during last year’s season. Fantistics has the Cardinals’ D as the #3 DEF/ST this year and Mathieu ranks as the #2 DB this year in IDP leagues, and he’s the #15 overall defender. Getting 16 games out of Mathieu this year will be great for fantasy owners.... Josh Sperry

Contained within our player projections software is a notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a look at some of the Wide Receivers that will be part of your 2016 draft (In no particular order):

Sanders,Emmanuel Sanders will have to deal with Mark Sanchez as his QB after a 3 year stretch with Roethlisberger and Manning. Throw the consistency out the window for 2016.

Decker,Eric Crushed it last season in weekly Head to head leagues with 14 Quality Starts over his 15 weeks! Solid all around with 80/1027/12 TDs. TD count might be a little high but other numbers are sustainable as long as Fitz is behind center.

Thomas,Demaryius
Lack of TDs hurt his 1st half production, but still averaged 17 FPG. Has averaged over 180 targets the last 2 years. Will have to deal with an inferior QB, but still has top 15 appeal even though his schedule against the pass remains tough (D-)

Bryant,Dez Has been cleared for camps, and is expected to be 100%. In his favor are a very favorable schedule against the pass (A-). Bryant has typically been 50+% on Red Zone rates as well. Should be a top 5 at his position.

LaFell,Brandon Has had some drop issues that tend to resurface at the worst times. Will see plenty of action, but will need to improve on his 50% catch rate to be called upon in the Red Zone.

Tate,Golden Has played well as Stafford's #1 receiver I the past (when CJ was out), and he'll get a full season of that in 2016. Some are expecting him to be top 10 receiver, but we think that's paying too much. If he falls to you outside of the top 20, consider that a value and draft accordingly. He's going to need 140+ targets to achieve top 20 status, and 170+ to be a top 10. Last year he registered 129.

 

8/04/2016

The Green Bay Packers released their first official depth chart Davante Adams was listed as the WR3 for the team, while Jeff Janis was listed behind Jared Abbrederis and Ty Montgomery.  Adams could have some value as the 3rd receiver in an offense that heavily utilizes 3-wideout sets... The buzz surrounding Jacksonville's fantasy stars this pre-season has been centered around their likely regression due to an improved defense.  The Jaguars played from behind a lot last season, giving players like Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns many opportunities to pad their stats during garbage time.  Obviously, Jaguars’ improved defense will cut into garbage time opportunities this season. If the opportunities decrease, it will be nearly impossible for Allen Hurns to repeat last season.  Don't pay a premium for his touchdown catches from a season ago...Good news came out of Bills camp on Wednesday when Vic Carucci of The Buffalo News reported that Sammy Watkins has a chance to practice with the team on Monday.  Watkins has maintained that he's on track to be ready to start in Week 1 after undergoing foot surgery this offseason... According to the Tampa Bay Times, Tampa Bay coach Dirk Koetter revealed that Cameron Brate, not Austin Seferian-Jenkins, is currently sitting atop the Buccaneers depth chart at tight end.... Dallas backup quarterback Kellen Moore broke his ankle in practice on Tuesday and will reportedly miss 3-4 months.  The Cowboys have been linked to free agent quarterback Nick Foles...Coach Belichick had nice things to say about new tight end Martellus Bennett.  Bennett is the first plus offensive TE2 that the Patriots have rostered since Aaron Hernandez...- According to SNY's Ralph Vacchiano, the Giants will utilize Rashad Jennings as a lead back this season as opposed to the running back by committee approach that they used last season... Both Colin Kaapernick and Blaine Gabbert having been given new leases on their NFL careers with Chip Kelly in San Francisco.  Based on a report in The Sacremento Bee, Matt Burrows believes that both quarterbacks are in a close battle for the starting job with each seeing "equal amount of practice repetitions with the 49ers' first-team offense so far in training camp"...Ezekiel Elliot suffered a hamstring injury during Tuesday's practice and Cowboys' Vice President Stephen Jones suggested that the team will be conservative with their bell cow, insinuating that we're dealing with a "week-to-week" rather than a "day-to-day" recovery... One of the many intriguing rookie wide receivers, Josh Doctson has high expectations going into this season for the Washington Redskins.  Unfortunately, Doctson injured his achilles during workouts in May and he has been unable to practice since the injury occurred.  With just over a month away from kickoff, concerns are mounting for the rookie, especially since he has seen in a walking boot earlier this week... Flying under-the-radar, Bucs beat writer Joe Kania went on record saying that Jameis Winston has been the most impressive player in camp so far, adding that "Day by day, he gets better and better" and that he "completed nearly every pass he threw" in 7-on-7 drills.... Second-round wide receiver Tyler Boyd has been raising eyebrows in Bengals camp this pre-season as he fights for a starting position with Brandon LaFell.  Speaking on SiriusXM NFL Radio on Tuesday, Andy Dalton mentioned that Boyd has "taken a huge jump from OTAs to camp, he's made some tough catches and has been impressive"... Wendell Smallwood was forced to miss Wednesday's practice after suffering a quad strain during Tuesday's session.  Head coach Doug Pederson mentioned that Smallwood was "still a few days away from getting back out there"... The Dallas Morning News reported that Cowboys wide receiver coach Derek Dooley believes Dez Bryant is "rusty.  He's got a lot of work to do and he knows it.  He's still got his skills.  The good news is his foot is great, moving around well. He'll get back into his rhythm."   Michael Waldo

Contained within our player projections software is a notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a look at some of the Tight Ends that will be part of your 2016 draft (In no particular order):


Thomas,Julius Came on in the 2nd half with 33/339 and 4 TDs, for a total of 5 quality starts in his final 8 games. The expectation is that they are now acclimated with each other and we'll see more of the 2nd half spill over from the start of the 2016 campaign.

Rudolph,Kyle On the field in 83% of the team snaps, yet only received 73 targets. This despite a above average 67% reception rate and respectable 10.1 YPR. Clearly underutilized, given the woes in their passing game. Tight now he's a TE2 with upside.

Kendricks,Lance Now that Cook is gone, there's some potential for a fantasy relevant season. He's about average in both his Reception rates and YPR. Rookie QBs tend to gravitate towards their TEs, so this is a projection that will remain fluid during the preseason.

Allen,Dwayne Disappointing injury laden season in 2015, but with Fleener out of town, Allen is the clear cut receiving TE option. Doesn't have the best hands as evidenced by a historically sub par 58% completion rate but makes up for it by breaking tackles, which translates to a more robust YPR on each catch. Low end TE1 coming in, that will require a decent backup on draft day.

Fleener,Coby Increased his reception rate to 64% last season, and with the move to Brees country, he could be in for a big season.

Green,Ladarius Moves to a another favorable TE friendly system where he won't have to compete with Antonio Gates for targets. Doesn't offer the same reception rates as Hmiller, but makes up for it in average distance (11.6 per catch). This is a bit of a fluid situation as Jesse James could emerge here as well.

Ertz,Zach Underutilized in the first half, then tore it up I the 2nd half with 46/539 yards, two 100 yard games, 6 QS, and a 72% reception rate. Highly talented receiver, but will be shifting to a new offensive system...so there are some unknowns here. However it is reported that Doug Pederson will emphasize the tight end position this season.

Eifert,Tyler Monster 1st half with 9 TDs, but disappointing injury shorten 2nd half. Took his game to another level last year with a 70% reception rate and above average 11.8 YPR. Dealing with a recovery from a ligament tear suffered in his ankle during the pro bowl. He's expected to miss some time to start the season.


Fantasy Football Draft Day Dominance!

Last season, our software ranked Devonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2015. (click here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+ year track record).

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Davante Adams (GB) - The Green Bay Packers released their first official depth chart and combine-darling Jeff Janis was mysteriously missing.  Currently getting slotted as the WR3 for the Packers, Davante Adams is trying to shake off a disastrous second season as a professional. On the surface, it's easy to write him off along with the first published depth chart, but looking a little deeper, there are a couple attractive things about Adams this season.  The first, and most obvious, is that Jordy Nelson will most likely be back, which means Adams will not be asked to be the team’s WR2 as he was at the beginning of 2015.  In fact, since Randall Cobb played mostly out of the slot last season, Adams typically drew the opposing team's top corner last year, one of the reasons he had an abysmal 53% catch rate.  Now that Jordy is back, the quality of coverage should decrease for Adams, giving him a little more room to operate.  The next reason also has to do with Cobb playing the slot, but it's mainly because slot receivers are on the field less frequently than players who line up on the outside.  If Adams can hang on to the WR3 job in Green Bay, there's some definite upside considering the negative "groupthink" opinion on him.    

FYIAllen Hurns (JAX) - The buzz surrounding Jacksonville's fantasy stars this pre-season has been centered around their likely regression due to an improved defense.  The Jaguars played from behind a lot last season, giving players like Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns many opportunities to pad their stats during garbage time.  Obviously, Jaguars’ improved defense will cut into garbage time opportunities this season.  On top of that, closer games will also mean more usage of the running game.  The Jags brought in Chris Ivory to help pound the ball on the inside and he should see a fair share of the red zone short yardage situations in 2016 that were previously thrown to Robinson and Hurns.  The former remains an elite wide receiver talent, but Hurns was largely successful due to opportunity, particularly in terms of touchdown catches.  If the opportunities decrease, it will be nearly impossible for Hurns to repeat last season.  Don't pay a premium for his touchdown catches from a season ago.  

Player InjurySammy Watkins (BUF) - Good news came out of Bills camp on Wednesday when Vic Carucci of The Buffalo News reported that Sammy Watkins has a chance to practice with the team on Monday.  Watkins has maintained that he's on track to be ready to start in Week 1 after undergoing foot surgery this offseason.  Expectations need to remain tempered since practicing doesn't necessarily mean he's 100%.  Nonetheless, this is obviously good news and seems to jibe with the newsflow this pre-season. Watkins has the talent to take the next step forward this year, especially when you consider that his quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, will also have another year of experience under his belt.  With an aging LeSean McCoy and the off-the-field issues for Karlos Williams, the Bills may be forced to rely even more heavily on the pass this season after finishing tied for 8th in the NFL with 602 pass attempts in 2015.

FYIAustin Seferian-Jenkins (TE) - According to the Tampa Bay Times, Tampa Bay coach Dirk Koetter revealed that Cameron Brate, not Austin Seferian-Jenkins, is currently sitting atop the Buccaneers depth chart at tight end.  Koetter went on to say that "the guys that are playing the best are going to play.  Catching up for some guys is knowing what they're doing.  Catching up for other guys is you've got to play better, and he (Seferian-Jenkins) falls into that category."  ASJ is definitely the most talented tight end on their roster, but it's clear that there are some things going on behind the scenes that aren't sitting well with his head coach.  Dropped passes have been his biggest issue so far in his pro career, so this is probably what Koetter believes ASJ needs to improve.  On the bright side, his 40% red zone conversion rate is very good.  His ADP is in the 20th round right now, but will likely fall even further after yesterday’s news.

Player InjuryKellen Moore (DAL) - Dallas backup quarterback Kellen Moore broke his ankle in practice on Tuesday and will reportedly miss 3-4 months.  Normally, injuries to backup quarterbacks wouldn't influence your fantasy roster construction, but in the case of Tony Romo's backup, it could be a different story.  The 'Boys had the highest rated pass- and run-blocking offensive line last season, helping to boost both their quarterback's performance and value.  Meanwhile, Romo has been an injury magnet throughout his career.  Early reports are that Dallas is exploring the possibility of signing recently released Nick Foles, or exploring trade candidates like Josh McCown or Mike Glennon.  Whoever ends up joining Dallas would instantly become a name to file away in case Romo gets injured.  

FYIMartellus Bennett (NE) -Excitement has been growing in New England since the Patriots signed tight end Martellus Bennett over the off-season. Nostalgic thoughts of the early 2010's Rob Gronkowski / Aaron Hernandez combination have flooded minds of many a Patriots fans over recent months as the team finally signed a legitimate offensive threat for Tom Brady and company to move back to 12 personnel packages with 2-tight end sets.  Coach Belichik was quoted by CSN New England praising his two tight ends saying that they "both block.  They can both catch down the field.  They can run intermediate routes, they're both huge targets."  Getting the respect of the Patriots' head coach is step one of having a successful offensive season and it certainly looks like Bennett has checked that box.  Don't expect Bennett to be able to perform like Aaron Hernandez circa-2011, but he's definitely worth rostering as a flier.  

Rashad Jennings (NYG) - According to SNY's Ralph Vacchiano, the Giants will utilize Rashad Jennings as a lead back this season as opposed to the running back by committee approach that they used last season.  When talking to the media on Tuesday, Giants' running back coach Craig Johnson said "obviously if it was like we finished the year - like Rashad finished - that would take take of a lot of problems".  That finish, as Johnson was eluding to, was 432 yards on the ground over the final 4 games with an excellent 5.46 yards per carry.  If this report plays out as Johnson expects, this would make Jennings a great value at his current ADP.  The backfield in New York remains crowded, so a full workload is anything but guaranteed, but for now he's the guy to own.  

FYICody Latimer (DEN) - A second-round pick in 2014, Cody Latimer hasn't made much of an impact on the NFL field yet.  That could all change this season according to FootballGuys' Cecil Lammy.  Lammy tweeted that he has seen Latimer "make a ton of plays in practice, big-time athletic ability".  Of course, none of this will mean anything unless he can learn the playbook and crack the wide receiver rotation.  Head coach Gary Kubiak has historically implemented extremely run-heavy playbooks and with the mess the Broncos currently have a quarterback, it's even more likely that he goes back to his bread and butter.  Between Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, that doesn't leave many targets for Cody Latimer.  It's probably safe to write this off as pre-season noise, but it's worth saying that this will be the magical 3rd  NFL season for the Broncos' receiver.  

FYIColin Kaepernick / Blaine Gabbert (SF) - Both Colin Kaapernick and Blaine Gabbert having been given new leases on their NFL careers with Chip Kelly in San Francisco.  Based on a report in The Sacremento Bee, Matt Burrows believes that both quarterbacks are in a close battle for the starting job with each seeing "equal amount of practice repetitions with the 49ers' first-team offense so far in training camp".  Kelly will likely let these two duke it out until a clear winner presents himself.  It's difficult to project the 49ers offense this season, especially considering the lackluster wide receiver corps that the 49ers will roll out this season.  Even in a fast-paced, high temp offense, it's difficult to get excited about either of these quarter backs this season. 

Player InjuryEzekiel Elliot (DAL) - When dealing with rookie running backs, even the smallest bit of news could create a significant impact.  Amid his legal issues, Elliot also suffered a hamstring injury during Tuesday's practice and Cowboys' Vice President Stephen Jones suggested that the team will be conservative with their bell cow, insinuating that we're dealing with a "week-to-week" rather than a "day-to-day" recovery.  If true, this can mean one of two things.  On one hand, it can be a sign that the Cowboys already view Elliot as their starting running back and they want to make getting him ready for Week 1 be their ultimate goal.  On the other hand, an extended absence as this point in camp could cause Elliot to lose reps and familiarity with the offensive line to fellow running back Alfred Morris.  All indications are they the Cowboys are simply being cautious, but if Morris is impressive, he could steal some workload in the early going.  Morris is a near must-draft for owners who decided to draft Elliot in the first round.  

RookieJosh Doctson (WAS) - One of the many intriguing rookie wide receivers, Josh Doctson has high expectations going into this season for the Washington Redskins.  Unfortunately, Doctson injured his achilles during workouts in May and he has been unable to practice since the injury occurred.  With just over a month away from kickoff, concerns are mounting for the rookie, especially since he has seen in a walking boot earlier this week.  While both Doctson and the team have denied a setback, the wide receiver will need to get on the practice field soon if he hopes to contribute this season.  Wide receiver is one of the most challenging positions to learn as a rookie (a big reason why receivers are known to break out in their 2nd or 3rd years) and missing training camp won't help with the transition.  

Jameis Winston (TB) - Entering his second season with Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston has managed to escape lofty expectations despite being a former 1st-round pick.  Flying under-the-radar, Bucs beat writer Joe Kania went on record saying that Jameis Winston has been the most impressive player in camp so far, adding that "Day by day, he gets better and better" and that he "completed nearly every pass he threw" in 7-on-7 drills.  Take this with a grain of salt since this could just as likely be an indicator of the poor Tampa Bay defense as much as it could be progress for the second-year year passer.  Nonetheless, Winston has the tools to be a very interesting fantasy quarterback one day and should be on the radar of everyone in start-up dynasty drafts.  Over his final 7 games of the regular season, he finished with passer rating >80 in 5 of those games and finished the season averaging 328 passing yards over his last 3 games.  

RookieTyler Boyd (CIN) - Second-round wide receiver Tyler Boyd has been raising eyebrows in Bengals camp this pre-season as he fights for a starting position with Brandon LaFell.  Speaking on SiriusXM NFL Radio on Tuesday, Andy Dalton mentioned that Boyd has "taken a huge jump from OTAs to camp, he's made some tough catches and has been impressive", which is consistent with the beat writers' reports that we have heard about the rookie all summer. More than likely, LaFell will wind up starting opposite of A.J. Green, but Boyd has a great shot at becoming the team's primary slot receiver.  There are plenty of targets to go around with the loss of both Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu.  

RookieWendell Smallwood (PHI) - Wendell Smallwood was forced to miss Wednesday's practice after suffering a quad strain during Tuesday's session.  Head coach Doug Pederson mentioned that Smallwood was "still a few days away from getting back out there".  Timing couldn't be any worse for the rookie, who had been getting reps with the first team offense in the absence of Ryan Mathews (ankle).  Darren Sproles has been getting some buzz as being the primary handcuff to the injury prone Mathews, but we know from previous experience that Sproles can't handle an every down role.  Expect Smallwood to eventually be the primary backup for Mathews and a guy who could see a big workload in the middle of the season if Mathews gets injured again.  

FYIDez Bryant (DAL) - The Dallas Morning news reported that Cowboys wide receiver coach Derek Dooley believes Dez Bryant is "rusty.  He's got a lot of work to do and he knows it.  He's still got his skills.  The good news is his foot is great, moving around well. He'll get back into his rhythm."  A little rust has to be expected from Bryant, who only played in 9 games a year ago, although likely played hurt through most of them.  Before last season, Bryant had 3 straight seasons of 16 games played, so hopefully 2015 was just a blip on the radar of an overall healthy career.

Notes prepared by Fantistics  Michael Waldo.

8/03/2016

A Look at ADP by Kyle Elfrink

Average Draft Position (ADP) should never be the end-all, be-all when it comes to mapping out your draft.  Still, it serves as a top signifier of ‘the way the wind is blowing,’ as we get closer to Week 1.  Let’s be honest, that magazine you bought on the way to the draft room was put together back in mid-June.  It’s missing key injuries have changed the roster make-up.  It’s missing rookies who’ve emerged in camp.  And, of course, it’s missing the results of all the many training camp battles that will have concluded in August.  In other words, it’s missing a load of the most important things!

My goal over the next month-plus is to follow the trends and movements, to tell you why a certain player is going up or down, and to give you my take on whether or not it’s warranted.  Our numbers will come from the National Fantasy Football Championship, courtesy of their director, Greg Ambrosious. 

Contained within the Fantistics Draft Software is the ability to choose different ADP providers (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, NFBC, MFL, MFL PPR, and blended). Other than the usefulness of using the different ADPs to know what others are thinking, this also allows us the ability to complete different mock drafts using different ADP sources, giving you a different draft in each scenario. Click on the Web update feature in the Draft Advisory Software to download the latest ADPs today.

·         Feeling Fine with Foster and the Fins

When Arian Foster (41st at RB, 134th overall) plays, Arian Foster succeeds.  Over the course of a half-dozen years working out of the Texans’ backfield, Foster parlayed 70 games into an average of nearly 90 yards rushing per game and a very impressive total of 65 TDs.  Of course, as everyone knows, the problem is that Foster is missing chunks of action every year.  His fragility and contract pushed Houston to move on and in just the last couple of weeks he found a new home in Miami.

Since the news broke that he would be in South Florida, the vet has certainly seen interest lift.  Foster has moved well inside the top-50 at his position (that number was in the 60s before the signing) and he has gone as high as inside the top-20 among RBs in some NFFC get-togethers.  As it stands, Foster is a better bet for per-game success over his competition with the ‘Fins ... Jay Ajayi (27th at RB, 80th overall) and Kenyan Drake (60th at RB, 211th overall).  Miami has made no secret of how strong he has looked in the early days of camp.  Assuming health, by the time your draft rolls around in mid-to-late August, you should expect Foster to be a name regularly found inside the top-25 at his position.

Frankly, he’s probably worth it.  Again, on a per-game basis he can perform like an RB1.  But, can you expect more than 12 games?  I would say no.  But, I still say ‘yes’ to the investment with the follow-up understanding that you should draft another RB in the next two rounds.  You have to back him up with a viable asset.  That’s just the fact when it comes to rostering Foster.  His talent is definitely top-20, but his history demands you continue to invest behind him.

·         Here come the Splits

Another day, another warning when it comes to NFL backfields.  In 2016, it’s darn-near impossible to find a running back who has free reign and indulgence in his team’s backfield.  Looking to Week 1, you can probably say that about Adrian Peterson (5th at RB, 14th overall), Todd Gurley (2nd at RB, 6th overall), Lamar Miller (7th at RB, 20th overall), Mark Ingram (9th at RB, 31st overall), Carlos Hyde (16th at RB, 52nd overall), and LeSean McCoy (14th at RB, 45th overall) are the only RBs who start the season healthy, set for 15+ carries, and without an immediate threat to their role.  That’s a sea change from a decade ago.

In the past seven days we have heard that the Jets, the Cardinals, the Falcons, and the Chiefs, could start the new campaign with at least a slight backfield rotation.  What do all of those teams have in common?  Well, their assumed number-1 runner is currently going as a top-12 RB in drafts.  New York says they would like to limit the hits and work for Matt Forte (12th at RB, 42nd overall).  The Cardinals have an on-going infatuation with Chris Johnson (62nd at RB, 231st overall), limiting David Johnson’s (3rd at RB, 8th overall) opportunities.  The Falcons have readily admitted that Devonta Freeman (6th at RB, 17th overall) and Tevin Coleman (42nd at RB, 135th overall) will share chances.  And, in Kansas City, the Chiefs are (correctly) wary of asking too much from Jamaal Charles (8th at RB, 25th overall) as he comes off another major knee injury and nears his 30th birthday.

Running back is a minefield of uncertainty.  A good deal of even the top guys have an inordinate amount of bust potential.  I would never tell you totally avoid them.  The nature of the beast is that risk will be inherent with nearly every single tailback.  So, the only surefire way is to load up on quantity.  In a draft with 16 rounds, my goal would be to walk away from the table with five-to-six options at the position.

·         Blue Light Specials

If it’s not yet another silly query about the viability of Josh Gordon (71st at WR, 214th overall ... but, as high as 65th overall in at least one draft over the past week!), then it’s the inevitable question about ‘sleepers.’  Believe me, it’s the bane of a fantasy experts’ existence!  Still, you can’t be in the biz, unless you have some names handy.  So here are a couple that caught my eye over the past week.

The first is the very boring Joe Flacco (22nd at QB, 125th overall).  One thing I love about Flacco is that he literally costs nothing and he may throw as many passes as any other QB in football.  An unreported number from last year is that Flacco averaged over 41 pass attempts per game.  That’s a shockingly high number for a guy who isn’t going among the top-5-to-6 at the position.  Getting a back-up QB on your fantasy team who throws that much, has a proven record of stability in play, and who can post ‘250-and-2’ with ease, is a huge plus.  He won’t set the world on fire, but I’ll take a chance with any slinger who figures to drop back 40 times per game in ’16.  Baltimore’s defense is filth this year and they should be trailing quite often.  That means a lot of 2nd half pass attempts.

Elsewhere, I find some level of interest in the unheralded Chris Hogan (58th at WR, 158th overall).  He’s made the move from Buffalo to New England in the offseason and appears to be a direct descendant of new teammates, Julian Edelman (21st at WR, 32nd overall) and Danny Amendola (76th at WR, 233rd overall)Both of those guys are injured with lower body issues and that won’t be the last you hear of them being banged up this year.  Hogan was an immediate target of the Pats in free agency and that usually bodes well for opportunity.  New England wanted him because they’re worried about the bumps and bruises on Edelman and Amendola.  Hogan will need the guys in front of him to falter or limp, but I think that’s a near-given.  In a PPR-set-up, Hogan makes for a tempting 6th and final WR on your roster.

·         All About the Benjamin?

The unnecessary (at least in fantasy circles) Stevie Johnson (78th at WR, 238th overall) could be shelved for half the year or more after tearing his meniscus.  This opens a spot for a guy like Tyrell Williams (135th at WR, 374th overall), but he’s not the reason for this write-up.  Instead, Johnson’s slip-up furthers the case of Travis Benjamin (41st at WR, 96th overall).

Benjamin is a new arrival in San Diego after breaking out in Cleveland last year with 68 catches, 988 yards, and five scores.  He’ll run as the second banana to Keenan Allen (10th at WR, 17th overall), but that’s still a productive spot to call home.  After all, Philip Rivers (12th at QB, 89th overall) will throw and throw often again this year.  Benjamin has a very good opportunity to replicate last year’s success with the Browns, while also adding another three-to-four touchdowns to his total from ’15.  I believe that Johnson’s injury provides more targets and more action in the passing game for Benjamin, rather a sudden uptick in opportunity for someone like Williams.  If I could secure him as a 4th WR on my squad, I’d call it a nice win.

You can hear Kyle each weeknight on ‘The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive’ from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.


Fantasy Football Draft Day Dominance!

Last season, our software ranked Devonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2015. (click here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+ year track record).

 

8/02/2016

The pending four-game suspension isn’t the only concern with Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell; he’s also coming off another knee injury. However, the news is better on that front. ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler wrote that Bell “no problem” with his open field cutting. The Steelers have “a bubble around him, but movements really fluid,” Fowler added…Arizona wide receiver John Brown is in the league’s concussion protocol after banging his head on the turf during practice on Sunday. It’s early enough in camp that this should be a nonfactor, but all concussion issues are worth monitoring…The Buffalo Bills signed veteran running back Reggie Bush to a one-year deal worth up to $3 million, including incentives. He will likely be used in a niche role within the offense and be utilized in the team’s return game. Bush could get a spike in value if starter LeSean McCoy were to go down, but offers minimal stand-alone value…Eagles’ running back Ryan Matthews (ankle) has yet to see the practice field in Philadelphia. Given his injury history, it’s not surprising. The longer he remains the more opportunities rookie Wendell Smallwood will have to get some reps…Rookie running back C.J. Prosise is expected to miss 7-10 days of training camp due to a strained hamstring. The injury doesn’t appear to be too serious, but any loss time for a rookie running back is never a good thing in training camp when the depth chart is as crowded as it is in Seattle…CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora reports that Redskins rookie wide receiver Josh Docston (Achilles) is expected to return to action in “a few weeks”.  He’s been sidelined since May and if he wants a shot at having an early-season impact Docston can ill afford to fall too far behind…Chargers wideout Stevie Johnson has sustained a torn meniscus and will seek a second opinion before undergoing surgery. His timetable will become clearer after he is operated on, but for now it doesn’t appear he’ll be much of a factor in fantasy football or for the Chargers in 2016…Chicago wide receiver Eddie Royal and tight end Zach Miller are both in concussion protocol, but neither issue appears to be serious. Both are expected back on the practice field later in week….The Chargers and rookie defensive end Joey Bosa are still not close to a deal. The No. 3 overall pick and his reps haven’t spoken to the club since last Thursday. Dan Clasgens.


Fantasy Football Draft Day Dominance!

Last season, our software ranked Devonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2015. (click here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+ year track record).



Player InjuryMarshall,Brandon - NYJ/WR: Brandon Marshall has been as steady as they come over the years, posting multiple 1000-yard seasons with three different teams. Now 33, he has lost a bit of speed but his game has always been more about using big frame to get open and win jump balls. Last season he pulled in 109 passes for 1,502 yards and 14 TD’s and with Ryan Fitzpatrick now back in the fold for the Jets there’s no reason to suggest that the veteran will not once again prove to be a No. 1 fantasy wide out in 2016.


Player InjuryAjayi,Jay - MIA/RB: Miami running back Jay Ajayi was held out of Monday's practice due to a knee injury. He was was restricted to riding a stationary bike on the Dolphins’ sideline. They are calling it a bone bruise in his left knee. He is considered day-to-day. With Ajayi out Monday, newly signed Arian Foster (Achilles) was able to take most of the first-team reps.

RookieLynch,Paxton - DEN/QB: Rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch is "really, really stepping up" at recent practices, according to head coach Gary Kubiak. Lynch is really raw and reportedly looked terrible back in May’s mini-camp. Still, with only Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian ahead of him on the depth chart a strong August could raise him up the depth chart quickly. He makes for a nice dynasty target, but owners in redraft formats are best to take a wait-and-see approach with the youngster.

Old PlayerWallace,Mike - BAL/WR: Mike Wallace worked with the first team during Baltimore’s practice on Sunday. He started camp off on a sour note when he field his conditioning test, but with Steve Smith and Breshard Perriman both still banged up, the Ravens will look for the veteran to have a large role early on. Wallace mustered just 39 catches for 473 yards and two touchdowns last year in Minnesota.

StatsTaylor,Tyrod - BUF/QB: The Bills are hopeful to reach a long-term deal with quarterback Tyrod Taylor before the season, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Taylor emerged last season with 3,035 yards and 20 touchdowns through the air to go along with 568 yards and four scores on the ground. Fantistics projects the Buffalo signal caller as one of the best values at the position heading into fantasy drafts this August. According to the Fantistics Projection Software notes: Above average .79 FP per attempt in 2015, with a decent 25% Red Zone success rate on runs within the Red Zone. Came through with 5 Quality Starts in final 8 games, and this came despite not throwing for over 300 yards in any of his games. Schedule stays neutral with 7 favorable and 4 neutral matchups. Favorably his offensive line is considered one of the best in protecting the pass rush.

Fleener,Coby - NO/TE: As if the Coby Fleener hype train was already going fast enough, quarterback Drew Brees added to it when talking to reporters on Monday. "As a tight end in this offense, you get a lot of opportunities, you get a lot of favorable match ups, and you can be a guy that catches a lot of balls," Brees said, "and I certainly see him in that role." Benjamin Watson, who left in free agency, had 110 targets in the New Orleans offense a year ago.

FYIPryor,Terrelle - CLE/WR: The buzz continues to come out of Browns’ training camp about wide receiver Terrell Pryor. The team has moved him to the “Z” receiver, which should give him a greater chance to win the job. New head coach Hue Jackson has allegedly drawn up some special plays for the former quarterback. His fantasy value remains minimal at this point, but he’s definitely a player to keep on during the preseason.

Randle,Rueben - PHI/WR: After not getting much attention in free agency this offseason, veteran receiver Rueben Randle could be fighting for a spot on the 53-man roster in Philadelphia. Former Rams wide receiver Chris Givens is establishing himself ahead of Randle in three receiver sets early on in camp, according to NJ.com. Givens is a better deep threat and is only 26 years old. Given the state of the quarterback situation for the Eagles, owners are best to avoid Randle even if he is able to win the job.

StatsPalmer,Carson - ARI/QB: Since Bruce Arians showed up in Arizona, Carson Palmer has emerged as solid QB1 fantasy option as he has averaged 278 yards per contests with 70 passing touchdowns in 38 games. Durability is the biggest concern with Palmer as he has suffered two season-ending knee injuries and also had some issues with his throwing arm in recent years.

Cousins,Kirk - WAS/QB: After he won the job outright in Washington, quarterback Kirk Cousins was impressive last season. During the season’s second half Cousins completed 74 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns and only threw two interceptions. With Jay Gruden calling the plays in D.C. the team has averaged 274 passing yards per game over the last two years. Fantistics projects the signal caller to throw for 4,211 yards and 29 touchdowns which make him a fringe QB1, high-end QB 2 option.

FYIAllen,Dwayne - IND/TE: Injuries have plagued Dwayne Allen for each of the past three seasons, but that didn’t stop the Colts from giving him a new deal worth $7 million a year this offseason. With Coby Fleener departing via free agency, the depth chart is clearing up for Allen to have a big role in 2016 if he can stay healthy. Other than injuries, Allen has also had a tough time catching balls as he dropped six of his 51 targets over the past two years. With Rob Chudzinski now calling the plays, Allen could see a boost. The coordinator has had a knack for creating opportunities for tight ends to be successful. His last two starting tight ends (Greg Olsen and Jordan Cameron) averaged 75 catches and six touchdowns.

FYIWalker,Delanie - TEN/TE: Delanie Walker led all tight ends last season with 94 receptions in 2015, but repeating that mark will be a challenge. For starters, the Titans have added more weapons this offseason and with second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota getting more comfortable in the pocket he may not check down as much as he did during his rookie campaign. Walker is two inches shorter than any other starter in the league, but he’s still effective in the red zone. He’ll be 32 years when the season starts, but Walker should have another good season or two left in the tank.

FYICrowell,Isaiah - CLE/RB: Hue Jackson’s arrival to Cleveland should bring hope to Browns’ fans and fantasy owners alike, especially those that take a shot on Cleveland running backs. While there has been a lot of buzz, and rightfully so, around second-year back Duke Johnson, owners shouldn’t let Isaiah Crowell fall off their radar. Jackson’s last four offenses have averaged 134 yards per game and all of the scored at least 16 rushing touchdowns. The Browns often played from behind last year and even went they weren’t trailing they went a bit pass crazy. In the three games where he had 15 carries, Crowell was productive with yardage outputs 72, 145, and 88 yards to go along with four touchdowns. He’s dropping into the middle rounds of most drafts now, but Crowell still possesses RB2 upside and is an even better option in standard formats.

IdeaMcCoy,LeSean - BUF/RB: At times when LeSean McCoy was on the field a year ago he looked like a high-end RB1 in the Bills’ run-first offense. Remarkably, McCoy is still only 28 years old and enters this season in full health, unlike a year ago. He averaged 75 yards rushing and 24 receiving last year, but only scored five times. With Karlos Williams facing a four-game suspension and coming into camp extremely overweight and not much depth behind him, McCoy is poised for a large workload right out of the gate. He should be viewed as low-end RB1 entering the season and makes for a great grab for owners that go wide receiver in the first couple of rounds.

Hyde,Carlos - SF/RB: After his big opening game in 2015 when he went off for 168 yards and a pair of touchdowns, things went downhill quickly for San Francisco running back Carlos Hyde. There are plenty of reasons for optimism heading into 2016; including new head coach Chip Kelly now calling the shots for the 49ers. Even though the Eagles failed to make the postseason in each of the last two years, the team did have success on the ground. Philly finished 9th and 14th in rushing, averaging 117 yards per game during that span and ranking as the best team in short-yardage situations. The Eagles scored 31 touchdowns on the ground the past two years compared to the 49ers’ 14 rushing scores. Hyde has slimmed down since last year and appears to be at 100 percent as preseason action nears. He is proving to be great value at the backend of Round 3 and early Round 4 so far in early drafts.

Cooks,Brandin - NO/WR: New Orleans wide receiver Brandin Cooks has averaged over five catches per contests during his first two seasons in the league and he’s just starting to scratch the surface of his potential. He have five quality starts in the second half of 2015 and caught 55 passes for 775 yards and eight touchdowns in his last 10 games of his sophomore season. The youngster is capable of making big plays in the Saints’ passing game as evident by his scoring plays of 71, 60, 54 and 38 yards a year ago. He’s a better option in PPR formats than standard leagues. Despite the early success, Cooks best football appears to still be ahead.

Notes prepared by Fantistics Dan Clasgens.

8/01/2016

Who will be 2016’s Cam Newton in the fantasy world?  Newton’s 2015 was one for the ages, particularly when you consider where he was drafted in most leagues.  I can tell you in quite a few leagues, he was drafted in the lower third of all QBs which wasn’t surprising given the lack of receiving talent, especially when Kelvin Benjamin was injured and lost for the season.  Instead of a season that most experts thought wouldn’t even match his lackluster 2014 (18 passing TDs), he went on to throw for a career-high 35 TDs and rushed for 10 TDs.  He threw five TDs in three different games and when you factor in rushing TDs, he scored multiple TDs in all but four games and threw and/or ran for at least one TD in every game.  I can remember dropping him in one league (Andrew Luck was my starter and Newton was my backup) after Week 1 when injuries started to hit and Newton had a lackluster season opener against Jacksonville.  It was the biggest mistake of mine in that league and probably cost me a shot at the title.  Even without Benjamin, Newton maximized the talent of the receivers he did have, especially his tight end Greg Olsen who had a career year.  We haven’t even mentioned the Panthers D /ST which set up the offense many times as they became dominant, so Newton’s year was really the result of a perfect storm.  Looking at this year – there are some names that will exceed expectations but to say any one of them will play to the level of what Newton did last year, would be unwise.  Jameis Winston does come to mind after a nice rookie season that saw him throw for 4,044 yards and 22 TDs.  He did throw 15 INTs but with one year of experience under his belt and a new offensive minded head coach in Dirk Koetter, not to mention stud receivers Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, insiderfootball.com projects 29 passing TDs.  Tyrod Taylor managed to hold on to the starting QB job in Buffalo all of last year and will be much better this year for it, especially when you consider he finished the season with five quality starts in his final eight games.   Coming off 20 TD passes and just six INTs along with 568 rushing yards, we project increases in all parts of his game, including TD passes which we have at 28.  If Buffalo’s D can knock off the penalties and give its offensive counterparts more chances to succeed, Taylor can take the next step up.  Marcus Mariota looked good in his rookie year when healthy which is saying something because he had pretty close to no talent around him in Tennessee.  He had eight quality starts and will look to increase that this year.  The Titans did make the move to acquire DeMarco Murray which was brilliant because it will take pressure off of Mariota and allow a beefed up offensive line to dominate in the trenches.  Although some will see this move as a limit to what Mariota can put up, we project 30 passing TDs and a much more confident QB picking his spots much more efficiently. Jasbir Singh

Contained within our player projections software is a notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a look at some of the Tight Ends that will be part of your 2016 draft (In no particular order):


Gates,Antonio Slowing down once again, but still managed to land in the top 12 despite only playing 11 games last season. With LG gone, he'll be battling a rookie TE for targets, which bodes well for him once again. Will need to fight that injury bug.

Cook,Jared Has only averaged a meager 52% completion rate with a slightly above average 12 YPR. Can Aaron Rodgers tap into a talent that has yet to emerge? Not willing to gamble on that in traditional sized leagues as anything but a backup.

Gronkowski,Rob Continues to put up massive numbers coming from the TE position. Consistently averages 17+ FPG, with a Fantasy Points per attempt hovering around 2 points per! He was blanketed in the Red Zone however, which dropped his success rate from 75% in 2014 to only 35% last season. Plays almost every down when he's healthy, and a legitimate first round selection.

Graham,Jimmy Injury concern as he recovers from a torn patellar tendon in his right knee (Week 12). Could start the season on the PUP. On top of that he clearly was not utilized as many hoped that he would be in his first year with Russell. Additionally his 11% Red Zone success rate was a pretty big disappointment. Has some value in the late rounds as a hold and stash type selection.

Watson,Benjamin Drew Brees resurrected his career after the departure of Jimmy Graham, Registered a very encouraging 12 FPG last season with a slightly above average 67% reception rate. Was in on 85% of the snaps in NO, but that's not going to be the case now that he's in Baltimore. Expect a significant regression here as he'll be sharing time.

Miller,Zach Stepped up for the Bears in the 2nd half last season with an impressive 13 FPG and 2.34 FP per attempt. His 50% Red Zone success rate was solid. Played like a top 10 in the 2nd half, and should land in the top 15 this season.

Clay,Charles Posted a disappointing 4 QS in his 13 games last season. His 9.4 FPG is top 25 material, but there is room for upside in the Red zone where he posted a 78% success rate.

Cameron,Jordan Poor 50% completion rate led to a disappointing 70 targets, and only 4 quality starts. New offensive game plan is known to be more TE friendly, but Cameron can not be drafted as anything more than a TE 2 at this point.


Fantasy Football Draft Day Dominance!

Last season, our software ranked Devonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2015. (click here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+ year track record).



Player InjuryHelfet,Cooper - SEA/TE: Helfet suffered a cracked bone in his foot on the very first play of practice Sunday. Seattle faces some uncertainty with starting TE Jimmy Graham on the PUP list as he still rehabilitates from the patellar tendon he tore last season. Helfet popped up as an option in deep PPR leagues last year but now who knows when he will be able to practice again. Luke Willson’s value will continue to increase as long as Graham and Helfet are both out.

Player InjuryBeckham Jr,Odell - NYG/WR: OBJ suffered a minor injury in practice Sunday when fellow Giant Janoris Jenkins (one of the Giants big free agent acquisitions) collided with him and reportedly “cleated” the star’s left ankle – leaving it sore and bloody. He was eventually carted off the practice field to the locker room after trying to work through it. There is nothing to worry about here but he may be limited in some upcoming practices.

Player InjuryJohnson,Steve - SD/WR: The underrated receiver injured his right knee during Sunday practice in San Diego and will undergo an MRI to determine the extent. Hopefully, the results will be positive because Johnson would be a nice sleeper pick in larger leagues. Keenan Allen and newly acquired Travis Benjamin are both higher than him on the depth chart but Allen is injury prone and Benjamin isn’t a proven receiver. Johnson’s numbers last year (495 yards/3 TDs) would have been much better if he didn’t miss six games due to a hamstring issue, but even if he does come back from his current injury, he will have to prove he can stay healthy.

FYIRomo,Tony - DAL/QB: The team recently expressed its thoughts that even though Romo is coming off yet another collarbone issue, he should be a full go for most, if not all of training camp. Unfortunately, he is already set to miss some early practices. In addition to his collarbone, there have been some photos circulating on the internet – showing Romo on the heavier side – but isn’t that what training camp is for? To get back into game playing shape? Supposedly, Romo’s collarbone has been “reinforced” which will make it harder to break when contacted and that is great news. His fantasy numbers are always strong when healthy but if you do draft him, you always have to draft a higher than usual backup.

Player InjuryYeldon,TJ - JAX/RB: The second year back underwent minor ankle surgery this offseason and as a result was not ready to practice as training camp opened this week in Jacksonville. Despite scoring only two rushing TDs he showed he could be a productive NFL back and a strong receiver – catching 36 passes. The team kept his touches down to break him into the long NFL season slowly so his numbers could have been much better, but we have to factor in the presence of newly acquired Chris Ivory – the human bowling ball. Most experts project Ivory as the short yardage back which could steal a bunch of scoring plays from Yeldon.

Player InjuryCook,Jared - GB/TE: The backup to Richard Rodgers is struggling with a foot injury that will keep him sidelined for some time. The team expects him to return hopefully after the second week of preseason action - which would still leave him far behind the learning curve in a new offense. This development only strengthens R. Rodgers’ stranglehold on the position but we still like the athletic Cook’s presence in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense.

Player InjuryForte,Matt - NYJ/RB: Forte tweaked his hamstring as training camp started late last week in Jets Land and he has yet to practice since. The team doesn’t think it’s serious and is just being overly cautious, which is the smart thing to do at this point of the year. Forte is set to do big things in an offense that can be explosive at times – especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick re-signed. Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey is the only man in the world who knows how to effectively use Fitz and now with an upgrade at RB, defenses will have even more trouble defending Gang Green.

FYIMartin,Doug - TB/RB: Martin was close to being left for dead at the beginning of last season, but a funny thing happened – he played so well he got a new $35 million contract to stay in Tampa. He finished with his best season since his rookie year in 2012 – rushing for 1,402 yards, 4.9 YPC (!) and caught 33 passes for 271 yards. With strong armed Jameis Winston, Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, the strength of the TB offense is the pass which opened a lot of room for Martin. Now with a proven offensive minded Dirk Koetter as head coach, Martin will see how to build on Martin’s surprising success in 2015.

FYIRoethlisberger,Ben - PIT/QB: With all the bad news circling the Steelers about Martavis Bryant’s suspension and Le’Veon Bell’s possible suspension, one bit of good news is that Big Ben is 100% healthy following that brutal hit against Cincinnati in the playoffs which sprained his AC joint. The Steelers are such that the offense comes close to collapsing when Roethlisberger isn’t in there, especially when missing key players on offense. On the negative side, he is 34 years old and doesn’t bounce back from hits the way he used to. He missed four games last year which killed some owners (like me) but when he did play, he was as lethal as ever.

FYIKaepernick,Colin - SF/QB: The embattled QB was cleared for all football activity last week (following three surgeries) and now will receive equal first time reps with Blaine Gabbert at the start of training camp according to head coach Chip Kelly which is actually a nice surprise. Unfortunately, Kap has a lot of things working against him as he tries to reclaim his throne – ownership doesn’t want him, he lost a lot of the locker room the way he handled parts of last season, there isn’t a lot of talent on the Niners offense and his health issues. Even at his peak, Kap was a spotty fantasy player, looking great at times but mediocre at other times as the Niners were a run heavy team. That has all changed now and the thought is if Kap can’t make it with Kelly, he won’t make it anywhere.

FYIMcCoy,LeSean - BUF/RB: With his offseason legal troubles in his rear view window, McCoy is looking to get off to a much better start than he did last year. McCoy was dogged by injuries early on but when he returned, he should how productive he could still be, especially as a receiver out of the backfield. He recently told the media in Buffalo that he is at his lightest weight in many years and feels great. With a run-based offensive coordinator in Greg Roman, McCoy will see the ball as much as ever, especially with backup Karlos Williams suspended to start the season.

Player InjuryEifert,Tyler - CIN/TE: The oft injured tight end will only need a walking boot for another week or so before he can take it off and start getting into playing shape. His offseason ankle surgery that took place in May had a three month recovery window which puts his return right in the middle of preseason. Now, the team believes he will be ready to go when the regular season comes around but we will wait and see how his ankle responds to actual vigorous exercise and practice drills. Nevertheless, his 13 TDs last year show how productive he can be when healthy so despite his early season status being questionable, he is worth a high pick.

Player InjuryPeterson,Adrian - MIN/RB: Arguably the best running back in the game has pulled a hamstring already in training camp and will take it easy until he feels better. With training camp just starting, any injuries are treated very cautiously because of the long season ahead, particularly when it comes to the running back position – a position that has a career life expectancy of around four years. I always liked how the SD Chargers treated LaDainian Tomlinson in the preseason – they never played him – and it extended his career. Minnesota should take note as Peterson gets up there in age.

Player InjuryJones,Julio - ATL/WR: The oft nicked but fantasy terror has come out of the gate slow this weekend with a sore leg that has limited his time in practice. The team has always managed Jones’ health woes well so expect Jones to be treated with extreme caution. He has played through pain a lot the last two seasons as he has missed only one game but when you catch 136 passes like he did last year, defenders get a lot of chances to tee off on him.

FYIHopkins,DeAndre - HOU/WR: Just as soon as the NFL community wrapped its head around the stud receiver skipping the first day of training camp, he indeed reported the next day (Sunday). After his ridiculously productive 2015, Hopkins wants a pay raise even though he is still under contract. This could have dragged on for a bit but it didn’t which is great news for Hopkins’ fantasy prospects. Despite the terribly inconsistent QB play in Houston last year, he was targeted 192 times! He caught 111 of those targets for 1,521 yards and 11 TDs but even so, Hopkins needs all the time available to build chemistry with Texans new QB Brock Osweiler.

Notes prepared by Fantistics  Jasbir Singh

 

7/30/2016

Contained within our player projections software is a notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a look at some of the Runningbacks that will be part of your 2016 draft (In no particular order):


Murray,Latavius Struggled in the 2nd half with a 3.3 YPC (134/436) as did the rest of the Raiders offense. Part of that can be attributable to an extremely difficult schedule (D+), and that should improve to a C grading this season. This should help him take advantage of one of the expected better Olines in supporting the run. Solid as a backfield receiver with a 77% catch rate, yet the YPC are a bit disappointing at 5.7. Should improve on his 6 Rushing TDs this season. Currently a mid 5th round ADP, that offers significant upside value.

Thompson,Chris Recovering from shoulder surgery, but is expected to be ready for the open. Solid 1.93 FP per attempt last season, but under utilized as a back field receiver. Will back up Matt Jones, who showed volatility in his rookie season.

Riddick,Theo Registered almost 100 targets last season (99), and caught a solid 81% of them, while maintaining an above average 8.7 YPR. His points per attempt were off the charts at 2.92 (best in the league for anyone over 80 touches). That said, he still might lose some touches to 2nd year Ameer Abdullah. Although he only registered 2 QS in non PPR leagues, he registered 10 QS in PPR leagues.

Lacy,Eddie Points per Game dropped from 17.3 to a miserable 9.6. Somehow he still put together 4 quality Starts in his final 7 games. Conditioning (or weight control) is the major concern here, and right now it's looking ok as Lacy lost weight this offseason with a conditioning program...but maintenance is at issue. If he can, he's still productive, especially in Red Zone situations.

Ellington,Andre Performed extremely well in limited action. Averaged 6.4 YPC on his 45 carries and 1.50 FP per attempt. Yes DJ is clearly the lead dog here, but Ellington is going to see time, and is a capable backup if he can stay healthy.

White,James Solid receiving numbers out of the backfield with 33 receptions and 6 TDs in the 2nd half. Since he struggled in the run game, he's more of a backup option to Dion Lewis at this point.

Hill,Jeremy Although his Red Zone numbers were quite encouraging with 12 total TDs (23% Red Zone success), his overall yardage numbers were disappointing (223/794 yards 3.6 YPC). His offensive line is considered above average (C+), and his schedule is neutral for 2016. We expect that there will be a rebound in the rushing totals, and his 7 QS from 2015, will climb closer to 8-9 in 2016, so there is value in his current last 6th round ADP.

Anderson,CJ Registered for an encouraging 6.3 YPC in the 2nd half while posting a superior 1.12 FP per attempt. However his usage came in spurts, and with Hillman still on the roster and rookie Davinte Booker in play, it's something he may have to contend with again in 2016. Expected to open as starter, but still a volatile pick, with upside of course.


Fantasy Football Draft Day Dominance!

Last season, our software ranked Devonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2015. (click here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+ year track record).

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WR Antonio Brown - The pound for pound best wide receiver in all of football. A year ago Brown went for 1,834 yards receiving on 136 catches with 10 touchdowns and 9 games over 100 yards receiving. With three straight years of at least 1,000 yards receiving and 8 touchdowns, you have to consider Antonio as the number one pick in your fantasy drafts. With an ADP of 1.01 you have to have stones larger than mine to fade him for someone else. Big Ben and Brown will be lethal once again.

WR Doug Baldwin - It’s so hard to believe the play Baldwin is becoming. In 2015 Baldwin had 7 touchdowns inside the red zone on 17 targets. Russell Wilson really trusts Doug to catch the ball going across the middle, but we can’t sleep on his big play making ability either. Baldwin finished 2015 with 14 touchdowns and only one game where he caught less than three passes. It will be hard for Baldwin to duplicate the touchdowns in 2016 but you are getting a steal at his current ADP of 4.08.

RB Carlos Hyde - Will Chip Kelly grind Carlos Hyde like he did McCoy for two seasons in Philly when Shady went for 300+ carries in back to back years? That is hard to tell. What we do know is Hyde can be productive when he is healthy. Hyde has missed 11 of 32 games since being drafted, that is very concerning. However if you are taking Hyde at his ADP of 3.04 you are really banking on him to be on the field and getting close to 250 carries. If that happens you have a great value on your hands.

WR Golden Tate - Life without Calvin Johnson, is going to be interesting for Golden Tate and the Lions. You can look at it as more balls will come his direction, or you can say without Calvin to hold the safeties will Tate even be open? Here is the thing Tate is a PPR machine for his ADP of 5.04, you’re looking at a guy that should lead the team in receptions, coming off an solid 2015 season. Stafford will still look to Tate across the middle and if he pushes 90 catches again in 2016, you will be very happy.

QB Philip Rivers - Rivers wants to improve his short passes accuracy in 2016. One thing you can always count on with Rivers is the ball will be thrown all across the field. After throwing for 4,793 with 29 touchdowns and 9 games where he threw for more than 300, you might ask where can he really improve. A lot of people don’t like drafting Rivers and he is 15th ranked QB on our sheet at the moment, but there is little to no doubt he will pushing 5,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2016.

RB DeMarco Murray - A little bit of a wild card here, it is hard to account for anything Murray did in 2015. Chip and DeMarco never really saw eye to eye, now they are both out of Philly. The Titans have indicated they want Murray to be a workhorse back for them in 2016. You’re obviously going to be taking a gamble here, and I would prefer to get him after his ADP of 5.07 but if the Titans give him the opportunity Chip didn’t he will be closer to 2014 DeMarco than the 2015 edition.

WR Kelvin Benjamin - The return of Benjamin is upon us. After missing all of 2015 due to an ACL injury, the Panthers are happy to have him back. A lot of people are down on the third year talent but it’s not all warranted. Someone has to catch balls and score touchdowns for the Panthers other than Greg Olsen. In his rookie season Benjamin went for 1,008 yards and 9 touchdowns, not to mention his shaky hands he had in 2014. Kelvin isn’t a guy you should be reaching for, but don’t be surprised to see Cam develop great chemistry with him in 2016. Benjamin can easily outperform his ADP of 4.05.

WR Allen Robinson - Blake Bortles loves to look at Robinson in the redzone and we love touchdowns. In 2015 Robinson had 12 touchdowns inside the redzone, really impressive stuff. On the year he had 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. After really coming onto the scene a year ago, expectations are high for Robinson and the Jaguars. We should expect another 1,000 plus yard season with double digit touchdown upside. You may just have to grab him in the first round with his ADP sitting at 1.12 at the moment.

QB Blake Bortles - If you love Allen Robinson, then you love Blake Bortles. Bortles has all the tools and weapons to be a top five producing fantasy quarterback. In 2015 Bortles threw for 4,428 yards to go along with 35 touchdowns and 6 games throwing for over 300 yards. Robinson isn’t his only target either, Allen Hurns and Rashad Greene are going to be called on a lot in 2016. I for one wouldn’t be afraid to take Bortles ahead of his ADP that sits at 5.12 on our sheet.

QB Matt Ryan - Matty Ice had one of the most impressive, unimpressive seasons in a while in 2015. It is really hard to believe with Julio Jones catching balls the guy couldn't throw for more than two touchdowns in a single game a year ago. Yes you read that right, not one game with more than two touchdown passes. However he did throw for 4,591 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. Don’t go reaching for Matt Ryan but if you are going to wait it out before taking a quarterback you can get Ryan late, maybe even off the waiver line after your draft.

RB Devonta Freeman - The surprise of all surprises in 2015, was this man. After compiling 1,056 yards on the ground with 10 touchdowns and adding 578 yards receiving with 3 touchdowns, were asking a lot for a repeat performance. Freeman touched the ball 337 times in 2015 and the Falcons are already talking about an easier workload in 2016. All things considered Freeman has a really fair ADP of 2.07 and don’t be afraid, the man is still going to make an impact every week.

WR Anquan Boldin - After being acquired by the Detroit Lions, Boldin will look to become the third option on his new team. Anquan isn’t a guy you need to draft on draft day but a guy I would recommend targeting as a potential waiver pickup during the season. The Lions are thin as is with pass catchers and Stafford will throw to anyone with hands, could make for a nice mid season pick up.

WR Amari Cooper - We really need to see Amari take the next leap in red zone scoring. In 2015 he only had 8 targets inside the redzone but manage to score twice. The rest of his game is fine, Amari caught 72 balls for 1,070 yards and really came on during the second half of the season. Amari has an ADP of 3.02 which feels a little high, but we are all expecting him to take the next leap in his second season. As well as improve his chemistry will Carr that will only increase his red zone looks.

RB Lamar Miller - Why should you take Lamar Miller at his ADP of 2.06? For starters, Miller is no longer a Miami Dolphin, the Texans are going to use him and use him a lot. Bill O’Brien loves to run the football, since being the coach for the Texans they have ranked 1st and 5th in rushing attempts in the NFL. Lamar is looking to get near 300 total touches in 2016, the world will finally see the back he is capable of being.

QB Teddy Bridgewater
- The word around town is Teddy has learned to throw the deep ball, do we believe it? Not sure, but if he can improve on it at all he will make huge strides as a fantasy relevant quarterback. In 2015 Bridgewater only threw for 3,332 yards with 14 touchdowns, also his rushing attempts were way down for the kind of athlete he is. In 2016 the Vikings are planning on using a more shotgun centric offense which should only help showcase what Bridgewater is naturally good at, extending plays with his feet. Teddy is far from a QB1 level talent but makes for a nice QB2 to have when you need a spot start.

Notes prepared by Fantistics  Bradley Funk.

 

 

7/29/2016

The recently released Nick Foles is now searching for a new team, and one team that is searching for answers at QB already came out and said that Foles was not in their plans. That team is the Denver Broncos who essentially said, “We’re fine with Mark Sanchez as our QB going into the season.” That’s not necessarily a glowing endorsement of how the league views Foles. CBS.com ranked the top landing spots for Foles and most of them were in backup roles.... Victor Cruz has avoided the PUP list and is supposed to take part in the teams’ practice on Friday. Honestly, him avoiding the PUP list may have saved his spot on the roster as he was injured in October 2014, and then hurt his calf last season which cost him the entire system. There are reports that the teams’ second round pick Sterling Shepard is impressing early on, meaning that Cruz might already be third on the pecking order for Eli Mannings’ targets.... The Browns said Thursday that they are going to name their starting QB for week one before their first preseason game on August 12th. This means that the Browns are going to likely name Robert Griffin III or Josh McCown as the starter. For fantasy purposes, neither rates very highly in Fantistics’ projections as the 33rd and 35th best QBs respectively. Obviously for fantasy reasons I’d want to see RGIII inserted as the starter because although you definitely aren’t drafting him in single QB leagues, he could make for a high upside gamble in two QB leagues.... Junior Galette was confirmed to have torn his achillies for the second straight season and will miss all of 2016 for the Redskins. It’s a shame that since coming over to Washington from the Saints that he hasn’t been able to set foot on the field. The Redskins defense was slated as the #10 defense in Fantistics’ projections for 2016, and without having any impact from Galette last year I don’t think they should move down too much..... Leonard Floyd left the Bears practice on a cart Thursday, but apparently it was just due to an illness that he’s been battling for the last few days and tried to work through. Right now, Floyd is listed as the backup at ROLB for the Bears but like all first round picks most teams will likely try to get him on the field as much as he can. He can play a bit of inside and while he may be a little on the small side, he can run with probably every tight end and a large majority of slot wideouts so if he can prove he can play the run at this level at an average level there’s a chance he gets significant playing time.... Matt Forte sat out Thursday’s practice with a tweaked hamstring, but he’s expected to be back within the week for the Jets. Forte was the big offseason addition to the offense and will likely play a huge role for the Jets this year. Todd Bowles came out Thursday and said what we already assumed, that Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to be the Jets starter this year from day one. Fantistics has Fitzpatrick slated as the 19th best QB on the board now that he’s signed with the Jets, with projections looking at 3,710 yards and 30 touchdowns. As long as Fitz has Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker outside to work with he’s going to be fantasy usable on most weeks.... Chris Ivory ran for 1,070 yards for the Jets last season and left to join the Jaguars meaning there are a ton of carries up for grab and Forte should get almost all of them. Ivory was not a huge threat out of the backfield, but Bilal Powell received 64 targets and you’d have to think we can take some from him and give them to Forte as he’s two years gone from a 102 catch season and a 44 catch season last year.... Le’Veon Bell spoke to the media for the first time since the news broke that he was facing a four game suspension for missing a drug test. He and coach Mike Tomlin said that his appeal for the suspension will be heard in the second week of August. For teams drafting late this is good news because you can wait and adjust if his suspension does get reduced, but if you’re drafting between then and now and you have to decided when it’s time to pull the trigger on him.... Following offseason ankle surgery, Ladarius Green is starting the season on the PUP list as the team will ease him back into being ready having to fill the void of Heath Miller who retired this offseason. Green gives Ben Roethlisberger a legitimate TE receiving option who could be in store for a huge season now that he doesn’t have to battle Antonio Gates for the targets at the position. Fantistics has him projected as the #13 best TE and he’s currently being drafted in the 8th round of drafts.... There was a scare in Ravens camp when Kenneth Dixon was hurt as the end of practice and had to be helped off the field. Good news for the Ravens came saying the injury was just a slight MCL sprain and he’s being listed as day-to-day. Dixon is getting some love in the Fantistics’ fantasy projections as they list him as the #45 RB thanks a lot to his receiving abilities out of the backfield as he’s projected for the 29th most catches out of the backfield.... The Falcons’ were very helpful to the media when it came to Julio Jones saying that he in fact tweaked “something” in the first day of practice. Sarcasm aside, Coach Dan Quinn says that he’ll be back in their Friday so there really isn’t anything to worry about. Jones flourished in Kyle Shanahan’s offense in year one catching 136 passes for 1,871 yards on 203 targets. All of that was without any sort of threat on the field besides himself to catch passes. With bringing in Mohammed Sanu and drafting Austin Hooper, there are more options for Matt Ryan which will dig into Julio’s targets, but his catch percentage should go up.... Darren McFadden received a bone scan that his elbow is healing well and he’s supposed to be ready for the regular season. After a huge 1,000 yard season last year, the team went out and drafted Ezekiel Elliot #4 overall and it sounds like he’s going to get most of the carries from the get go. However, McFadden makes for one of the best handcuffs in football and absolutely needs to be drafted in every league because if Elliot were to suffer an injury or be slow to start, the Cowboys have a chance to win this year and shouldn’t hesitate to put McFadden back in there if needed.... Jimmy Graham isn’t going to be ready to start training camp for the Seahawks but the team expects him to be ready for the season opener. Last year was a disaster for Graham as he only caught 48 passes for 605 yards and two touchdowns. This year he enters the season as the #14 tight end in our projection systems, and there’s going to be a point where he falls far enough that he will become a value. He’s currently going two rounds behind Ladarius Green and he’s got identical projections to him.... Thomas Rawls is slated for a huge season for the Seahawks, but he’s getting off to a slow start as he’s not going to be ready for the start of camp. Rawls says that his rehab is going terrific and he’s running and cutting already and everything is going well. He’s going to be the lead back on an offense that LOVES to run the football and Fantistics has him going for 1,145 yards and 8 scores. In Fantistics’ Insider notes: Rawls was a top 10 back when healthy and averaged .80 points per touch. He’s in store for a big big season.... Josh Sperry

Contained within our player projections software is a notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a look at some of the Quarterbacks that will be part of your 2016 draft (In no particular order):


Manning,Eli Had one of his better fantasy seasons in 2015 with 9 Quality Starts and six 300 yard games. Schedule against the pass remains neutral with slight improvement in the OL.

Brees,Drew Continues to average 42 pass attempts per game, which is usually fantasy gold. Last season he posted ten 300 yard games, and 11 Quality Starts, including 23.9 FPG. Could see a rise in TDs, as Oline is one of the best in pass protection (B+). Only wrinkle is an expected D- schedule against the pass.

Rivers,Philip Tossed eight 300 yard games, but only managed 8 Quality Starts. He averaged 21 FPG, but that's league average and outside of the top 10. Schedule does improve slightly for him this season (C from D-), but his Oline remains one of the worst in the league (F), and the 40 sacks last season were very reflective. Rivers is still an effective QB, but not a reliable option as a QB1. We rank him outside of the top 12 QBs in the league, #16 overall in 2016

Fitzpatrick,Ryan Finished the season as a top 12 fantasy QB, and that has a lot to do with 2 good receivers and a favorable B schedule. Schedule does get a little tougher this season ©, and the Oline is about average (C+). Likely to post another 7 Quality starts in 2016.

Sanchez,Mark Only averages .45 Fantasy Points per attempt, but will be surrounded by better talent. Schedule will be tough with 8 games expected to be against better than average pass defenses, and only 4 neutral pass defenses. Also at considerable risk to lose starter job to rookie Lynch at some point.

Cutler,Jay Struggled without viable WR targets last season. Finished the last 8 games with 2 Quality Starts and only one 300 yard game. Tough D- schedule against the pass ahead and the O Line is rated as one of the worst in the league (F).

Stafford,Matthew Only had three 300 yard games last season, but did manage 9 quality starts. Most of his production came in the 2nd half when his schedule of difficulty eased up to a C grade. Biggest loss will be that of superstar Calvin Johnson, but his schedule does improve with 7 favorable, and 6 neutral matchups expected in 2016.
 


Fantasy Football Draft Day Dominance!

Last season, our software ranked Devonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2015. (click here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+ year track record).

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Jones,Julio - ATL/WR: The Falcons’ were very helpful to the media when it came to Julio Jones saying that he in fact tweaked “something” in the first day of practice. Sarcasm aside, Coach Dan Quinn says that he’ll be back in their Friday so there really isn’t anything to worry about. Jones flourished in Kyle Shanahan’s offense in year one catching 136 passes for 1,871 yards on 203 targets. All of that was without any sort of threat on the field besides himself to catch passes. With bringing in Mohammed Sanu and drafting Austin Hooper, there are more options for Matt Ryan which will take into Julio’s target, but his catch percentage should go up.

Dixon,Kenneth - BAL/RB: There was a scare in Ravens camp when Kenneth Dixon was hurt as the end of practice and had to be helped off the field. Good news for the Ravens came saying the injury was just a slight MCL sprain and he’s being listed as day-to-day. Dixon is getting some love in the Fantistics’ fantasy projections as they list him as the #45 RB thanks a lot to his receiving abilities out of the backfield as he’s projected for the 29th most catches out of the backfield.

Green,Ladarius - PIT/TE: Following offseason ankle surgery, Ladarius Green is starting the season on the PUP list as the team will ease him back into being ready having to fill the void of Heath Miller who retired this offseason. Green gives Ben Roethlisberger a legitimate TE receiving option who could be in store for a huge season now that he doesn’t have to battle Antonio Gates for the targets at the position. Fantistics has him projected as the #13 best TE and he’s currently being drafted in the 8th round of drafts.

Forte,Matt - NYJ/RB: Matt Forte sat out Thursday’s practice with a tweaked hamstring, but he’s expected to be back within the week for the Jets. Forte was the big offseason addition to the offense and will likely play a huge role for the Jets this year. Chris Ivory ran for 1,070 yards for the Jets last season and left to join the Jaguars meaning there are a ton of carries up for grab and Forte should get almost all of them. Ivory was not a huge threat out of the backfield, but Bilal Powell received 64 targets and you’d have to think we can take some from him and give them to Forte as he’s two years gone from a 102 catch season and a 44 catch season last year. He averages 60 catches a season and he’s had to battle with top WR options before for looks so I’m not worried about him going to an offense that is so WR focused.

Floyd,Leonard - CHI/LB: Floyd left the Bears practice on a cart Thursday, but apparently it was just due to an illness that he’s been battling for the last few days and tried to work through. Right now, Floyd is listed as the backup at ROLB for the Bears but like all first round picks most teams will likely try to get him on the field as much as he can. He can play a bit of inside and while he may be a little on the small side, he can run with probably every tight end and a large majority of slot wideouts so if he can prove he can play the run at this level at an average level there’s a chance he gets significant playing time.

Rawls,Thomas - SEA/RB: Thomas Rawls is slated for a huge season for the Seahawks, but he’s getting off to a slow start as he’s not going to be ready for the start of camp. Rawls says that his rehab is going terrific and he’s running and cutting already and everything is going well. He’s going to be the lead back on an offense that LOVES to run the football and Fantistics has him going for 1,145 yards and 8 scores. In Fantistics’ Insider notes: Rawls was a top 10 back when healthy and averaged .80 points per touch. He’s in stores for a big big season.

Graham,Jimmy - SEA/TE: Jimmy Graham isn’t going to be ready to start training camp for the Seahawks but the team expects him to be ready for the season opener. Last year was a disaster for Graham as he only caught 48 passes for 605 yards and two touchdowns. This year he enters the season as the #14 tight end in our projection systems, and there’s going to be a point where he falls far enough that he will become a value. He’s currently going two rounds behind Ladarius Green and he’s got identical projections to him.

McFadden,Darren - DAL/RB: Darren McFadden received a bone scan that his elbow is healing well and he’s supposed to be ready for the regular season. After a huge 1,000 yard season last year, the team went out and drafted Ezekiel Elliot #4 overall and it sounds like he’s going to get most of the carries from the get go. However, McFadden makes for one of the best handcuffs in football and absolutely needs to be drafted in every league because if Elliot were to suffer an injury or be slow to start, the Cowboys have a chance to win this year and shouldn’t hesitate to put McFadden back in there if needed.

Bell,Le'Veon - PIT/RB: Le’Veon Bell spoke to the media for the first time since the news broke that he was facing a four game suspension for missing a drug test. He and coach Mike Tomlin said that his appeal for the suspension will be heard in the second week of August. For teams drafting late this is good news because you can wait and adjust if his suspension does get reduced, but if you’re drafting between then and now and you have to decided when it’s time to pull the trigger on him. For me, there’s no way I let him get past the middle of the second round as he’s one of the true game changers in fantasy. Even with missing four games, he’s still Fantistic’s #4 back going into the season.

Galette,Junior - WAS/LB: Galette was confirmed to have torn his achillies for the second straight season and will miss all of 2016 for the Redskins. It’s a shame that since coming over to Washington from the Saints that he hasn’t been able to set foot on the field. The Redskins defense was slated as the #10 defense in Fantistics’ projections for 2016, and without having any impact from Galette last year I don’t think they should move down too much.

Browns, Cleveland - CLE/D: The Browns said Thursday that they are going to name their starting QB for week one before their first preseason game on August 12th. This means that the Browns are going to likely name Robert Griffin III or Josh McCown as the starter. For fantasy purposes, neither rates very highly in Fantistics’ projections as the 33rd and 35th best QBs respectively. Obviously for fantasy reasons I’d want to see RGIII inserted as the starter because although you definitely aren’t drafting him in single QB leagues, he could make for a high upside gamble in two QB leagues. For instance in 12 team leagues, Matt Ryan, Teddy Bridgewater, Jay Cutler, and Brock Oswiler are QBs 24-27 that could be the tail end of the two QB “depth chart.” However in between Oswiler and RGII there is Jared Goff, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Blaine Gabbert, and Paxton Lynch and to be honest I probably take the homerun shot on RGIII and pick up a Bradford if RGIII shows he still doesn’t have it.

Cruz,Victor - NYG/WR: Cruz has avoided the PUP list and is supposed to take part in the teams’ practice on Friday. Honestly, him avoiding the PUP list may have saved his spot on the roster as he was injured in October 2014, and then hurt his calf last season which cost him the entire system. There are reports that the teams’ second round pick Sterling Shepard is impressing early on, meaning that Cruz might already be third on the pecking order for Eli Mannings’ targets. If he had been forced to miss any extra time, there could have been a chance that he fell even further and the Giants could have been faced with a decision on whether he’d be healthy again.

Fitzpatrick,Ryan - FA/QB: Todd Bowles came out Thursday and said what we already assumed, that Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to be the Jets starter this year from day one. Fantistics has Fitzpatrick slated as the 19th best QB on the board now that he’s signed with the Jets, with projections looking at 3,710 yards and 30 touchdowns. As long as Fitz has Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker outside to work with he’s going to be fantasy usable on most weeks. The Jets also brought in Matt Forte this offseason, who is among the best in football at catching the ball out of the backfield, and if second year wide out Devin Smith can make strides, there’s a solid chance he can climb into the top 15 at the position.

Notes prepared by Fantistics  Josh Sperry.

 

7/28/2016

 

The New York Jets and Ryan Fitzpatrick finally came to terms on a one-year contract. The news solidifies the values of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker as top-10 and top-20 wide receivers, respectively...Carolina Panthers’ wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin is active in training camp and passed the conditioning test for the team.  It’s excellent news for the big pass catcher, but there’s definite concerns surrounding the repeatability of his impressive rookie season in 2014.... The Packers announced on Tuesday that newly signed tight end Jared Cook would begin training camp on the PUP list, but coach Mike McCarthy believes that stint will be short-lived.  The team also placed wide receiver Jordy Nelson on the PUP after suffering tendonitis in his non-surgically repaired left knee.  Nelson brushed off the injury as minor and reiterated that he plans to be back for Week 1. On a more positive note, Packers beat writers have been impressed with the fitness of Eddie Lacy and have mentioned that he looks to be in much better shape than last year....Philip Rivers wants to help teammate Antonio Gates break Tony Gonzalez’s career touchdown record.   The tight end needs just 8 touchdowns to become the new recordholder. Gates continues to play an integral role in the Chargers offense and will again be valued as a TE1, but he’s a walking injury risk at this point in his career...Jeremy Langford showed up to Bears camp with 8-10 extra pounds on his frame.  The running back said he focused on bulking up this off-season to prepare for a bigger workload. Hopefully the extra weight doesn’t come at the cost of his speed or acceleration...City prosecutors are investigating assault allegations against Ezekiel Elliot, but without hard evidence, it seems unlikely Elliot will be arrested.  The other Dallas running back, Darren McFadden, received good news on a bone scan and looks to be on track to return in Week 1.  He’ll only hold value if Elliot is forced to miss time....Bruce Ellington has been generating a lot of buzz and could potentially be a pet favorite of new coach Chip Kelly.  The “gadget” Ellington can line up as a wide receiver on the outside, play in the slot, or set-up in the backfield.  He fits Kelly’s offensive system extremely well and is going undrafted in a lot of formats.... The Rams officially parted ways with quarterback Nick Foles, paving the way for Case Keenum to be the Week 1 starter...Ryan Mathews was placed on the PUP list with an ankle injury, but the team doesn’t expect the injury to keep him out for an extended amount of time... Michael Waldo

Contained within our player projections software is a notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a look at some of the Wide Receivers that will be part of your 2016 draft (In no particular order):


Marshall,Brandon Marshall posted a surprise season in 2015: 109/1502 yards/14 TDs for an average of 21.5 Fantasy Points per game. Overall the #3 Fantasy WR last season. Another favorable schedule against the pass is expected (B), With Fitz is back under center he should be a top 10 again, even with some regression.

Ginn,Ted With Benjamin expected back, there'll be less than 97 targets going to Ginn this season, So his 12.3 FPG is going to be difficult to achieve once again.

Cruz,Victor Hoping to stay and be healthy as we head through the 2016 season. He'll come cheaply, but could be a sneaky #3 receiver for you if he's under full power.

Aiken,Kamar Expected to open the season as the #2 receiver for Joe Flacco. Saw 83 targets in the 2nd half of last season, and caught 50 of them for a 60% completion rate (which isn't great), but serviceable for a 12.2 YPR average. He's not likely to see that many targets with Steve Smith back in the fold.

Smith,Torrey Saw his YPR increase to 20.1, however that came at a cost, as he only recorded a 53% Reception rate. He's hit or miss on a weekly basis and not draft able in most head to head formats.

Green,AJ The expectation here is that Green will become a more central part of the offense with Sanu and Mjones out of town. With 132 targets last season, Green posted on of his best reception rates (65%), and still managed 15.1 YPR. If he can garner an 150+ targets, Green should increase his Quality starts from 7 to a more top receiver level of 9 or above. Still we tend to view him outside of the overall top 10 as he does get shut down some weeks (although his schedule is expected to be more favorable this season, from a D+ to B).
 


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FYIKelvin Benjamin (CAR) - Kelvin Benjamin managed to avoid the PUP list to begin camp and he passed the conditioning test on Wednesday.  This is really good news for the big Carolina receiver who missed all of last season with a torn ACL.  Benjamin returns to an offense that looks much different than the last time he stepped on the field.  Newton has emerged as a legitimate QB1 and has become a threat to both throw and run the football.  With that said, we also saw the Panthers throw the ball nearly 50 fewer times in 2015 than in 2014.  Kelvin saw his fair share of red zone targets in 2014 and figures to regain a large share of the targets that he lost to Greg Olsen last year, but the rise of Devin Funchess will prevent Benjamin from getting anywhere close to the 145 targets he saw as a rookie.  Unfortunately, Benjamin had a lot of success due to pure volume in 2014, but his overall efficiency was really low.  He'll need to reduce his drops and improve his route running before he can be considered among the best of his loaded 2014 draft class, especially since he'll have to try to repeat that performance on significantly fewer opportunities.  

Player InjuryRyan Mathews (PHI) – The Eagles placed oft-injured running back Ryan Mathews on the PUP list to begin training camp earlier this week, but it doesn’t appear the ankle injury is serious.  CSN Philadelphia reiterated this fact on Wednesday when they reported that Mathews was seen walking into the team’s facility without a limp.  While this particular injury doesn’t appear serious, it’s important to mention Mathew’s lengthy injury history.  In recent years, Mathews has missed 9 games related to 3 different concussions, broke his collarbone and missed 3 games, sprained his MCL in his knee and missed 8 games and has suffered several other various ailments.  In fact, 2013 was the only season in his 6-year career where he managed to play 16 games.  Ryan Mathews owners would be wise to make a late round investment in rookie Wendell Smallwood as insurance. 

Player InjuryDarren McFadden (DAL) – How did Darren McFadden use the offseason to prepare to battle Ezekiel Elliot for the starting running back position?  By breaking his elbow, of course.  Luckily, Bleacher Report’s Jason Cole came bearing good news for McFadden owners on Wednesday, stating that The running back’s recent bone scan results came back “good” and he remains on track to be available Week 1.  Of course, we don't know how involved he will be during the pre-season and despite the off-the-field issues with Elliot, the Cowboys also brought in veteran Alfred Morris to shore up their backfield.  With all this competition, it's difficult to see a clear path to significant playing time for him.  McFadden resurrected his career in 2015 by rushing for over the century mark for the first time since 2010 and finishing with an average 4.6 YPC.  The outlook would obviously change if Elliot faces any type of discipline by the NFL, but for now, McFadden is nothing more than a late round prayer. 

FYIEddie Lacy (GB) -  Weight and conditioning has always been an issue for the Packers’ 4th year running back. Fortunately, based on reports out of Packers camp in the Milwaukee-Sentinel, Lacy showed up looking fit and worked all off-season with famous P90X trainer, Tony Horton.  Fantasy owners may find it hard to trust Lacy this season after he fell into a timeshare with James Starks midway through 2015, but it certainly sounds like the running back worked his tail off to prepare for this year.  Last season was a down year for the entire Packers offense.  Without Jordy Nelson, the team struggled to build their historically strong passing attack, giving defenses more opportunities to stack the box against Lacy.  Now that Jordy is back, look for this offense to get back on track and Lacy to again post numbers closer to what he did in 2014.

Bruce Ellington (SF) - Entering training camp, Torrey Smith is listed as the WR1 on the San Francisco 49ers depth chart, but Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee believes "he appears to be a major component and is in excellent position to be the 49ers’ break-out player on offense."  Before that, he also mentioned that "Ellington can line up in the slot, go in motion for a handoff or even come out of the backfield".  Chip Kelly has long been recognized for him obsession over "gadget" players like Ellington, so this may be something to pay attention to in the coming weeks.  Ellington can be had for pennies and definitely sounds like the type of upside gamble that you should take at the end of your drafts.  

FYIJeremy Langford (CHI) - One of the more interesting position battles this summer will be taking place in Chicago's backfield.  Last year's breakout, Jeremy Langford, will be battling second-year Ka'deem Carey and rookie Jordan Howard for touches this season.  Since the draft, Bears beat writers have viewed Langford as the early-down back, with the physical Howard most likely to play short-yardage or goal line downs.  However, on Wednesday we learned that Jeremy Langford showed up to training camp 8-10 pounds heavier as he spent the off-season bulking up to try to win the job outright.  It remains to be seen if his now 220 pound frame will be able to sustain the workload of a workhorse back and if the added weight will have any negative consequences, like cutting down on his acceleration.  As it stands right now, Langford still has a lead on the job, but an impressive camp from either Carey or Howard could muddy up the waters. 

FYIAntonio Gates (TE) - Time for the obligatory "daily narrative" from training camps.  According to ESPN, Philip Rivers wants his longtime tight end, Antonio Gates, to break Tony Gonzalez's career touchdown record.  Gates is just 7 touchdowns shy of Gonzalez's 111, and while last year was filled with reports that Gates was slowing down, he still finished the year with the second-most targets on the Chargers.  Rivers and Gates share one of the best chemistry among any NFL duo and for that reason, Gates is easily a starting tight end on any fantasy team.  Despite missing the first four games of last season, Gates still finished with the second-most red zone targets among all tight ends, more than Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed or Greg Olsen. If you take him as your top tight end, be sure to grab a backup as injury insurance.

FYIEzekiel Elliot (DAL) - According to TMZ Sports, "Ezekiel Elliot's not out of the woods yet...because his accuser in the domestic violence case has gone to the city prosecutor -- which has launched a full investigation into her allegations".  Elliott (and four witnesses) has been adamant that there was no wrongdoing, but we'll have to wait and let the investigation run its course.  At this point, it doesn't appear there is sufficient evidence in the case against Elliot, so unless something else surfaces that hasn't already been mentioned, it's likely the accuser won't gain any traction here, either.  For what it's worth, the police already said there wasn't enough evidence to make an arrest.  Continue to draft Elliot in the first round of fantasy drafts, despite the news of the investigation. 

FYIPaxton Lynch (DEN) - Paxton Lynch told Jeff Legwold of ESPN that he believes he has a shot at being the starting quarterback for the Broncos this season.  Speaking on Wednesday, Lynch said "I definitely think I have the opportunity to better myself and put myself up in that position to play right away or sooner than I had thought," Lynch said. "I knew those guys were going to be ahead of me just because of experience -- Trevor his experience in the offense and Mark his experience in the league and me being a rookie, and this is the first time I've seen a playbook like that." There's no question that the Broncos are going to be willing to make this situation an open competition, but as Lynch hits on in the second half of his quote, learning an NFL playbook as a rookie quarterback is one of the most difficult things to do, let alone building chemistry with his receivers and line.  This is likely just noise and excitement coming out of the opening day at camp, but the first-round selection should be given every opportunity to develop quickly and could potentially see game action during the season if Sanchez struggles.  Lynch is currently #3 on the depth chart behind Sanchez and Trevor Seimien.  For what it’s worth, Broncos beat writer Andrew Mason also mentioned on Wednesday that coach Gary Kubiak was disappointed with the way Lynch played in spring workouts, but has been impressed with his improvements so far.  He also said he doesn’t have a timeline for determining which of his quarterbacks would be the starter. 

Player InjuryJared Cook (GB) - The Packers announced on Tuesday that newly signed tight end Jared Cook would begin training camp on the PUP list.  However, Ian Rapaport is reporting that based on discussions with Mike McCarthy on Cook's medical report, the move was mostly precautionary and he shouldn't be inactive for very long.  Cook has a great opportunity to finally play in a highly efficient offense after spending all of his career in Tennessee and St. Louis.  Perpetually tagged in pre-seasons as a potential breakout candidate, Cook has always struggled to take the next step. From a pure talent and physical standpoint, Cook has everything that you would want from a tight end.  Unfortunately, laziness and lack-of-focus have led to plenty of missed blocks and dropped passes over the recent years, so he's going to need to straighten out that aspect of the game to beat out Richard Rodgers.  With the return of Jordy Nelson, there won't be as many "free" targets to go around, but the overall efficiency of the offense should increase, which will benefit Cook.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) - The drama of the pre-season has certainly been the dialogue back-and-forth between the Jets and free agent Ryan Fitzpatrick.  The latter had been holding out for a better contract, while the former has stood their ground with their allegiance to Geno Smith.  That all came to an end on Wednesday as the two sides came to an agreement on a 1-year contract worth $12.9M.  The news definitely boosts the fantasy values of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, but Fitzpatrick is nothing more than a backup, streaming option for most fantasy leagues.  The Jets strength of schedule gets a little tougher this season, so it may be difficult for the quarterback to repeat the 31 TDs and 3,905 yards that he had a season ago. 

FYILe’Veon Bell (PIT) – Profootball talk reported on Wednesday that there’s a “strong sense” among football circles that Le’Veon Bell would not be likely to win his suspension appeal from the league.  Bell’s reasoning for the appeal is centered on the fact that he changed his cell phone number, so he did not know the league was requesting a sample for drug testing.  Sure, good luck with that one, Le’veon.  We’ve pounded the topic pretty heavily over the last few days, but Bell obviously remains one of the more difficult valuations that fantasy owners will face this drafting season.  To make matters more difficult, two of his best defensive matchups all season will come during his suspension when the Steelers take on the Eagles and the Redskins.  So in what type of leagues should you reach for Bell?  Anytime you’re in a format that has a larger percentage of teams make the playoffs, Bell becomes an intriguing possibility for your squad.  For example, if you’re in a 12-team league that takes the top-8 teams for the playoffs, you might be able to recover from the 4 weeks without your running back to be able to finish 8th overall.  On the flipside, if you’re in a 12-team format where only 4 teams make the playoffs, taking him in the 2nd round is a pill that’s a little more difficult to swallow. 

Player InjuryJordy Nelson (GB) – The Packers placed Jordy Nelson on the PUP list on Monday, raising speculation that he had suffered a setback in his recovery from right knee ACL surgery. Luckily, Nelson clarified the issue on Tuesday and said that he’s currently dealing with tendonitis in the left knee, not the surgically repaired right knee.  It’s not unusual for recovering athletes to over-compensate during their rehab, which can unintentionally put undue stress on the opposite side of the body.  Fortunately, both Nelson and the Packers have reiterated that this was a minor setback and the ultimate goal remains to be ready for Week 1.  There are a lot of fantasy owners riding on Jordy Nelson this year, regardless if they are a Nelson owner, a Rodgers owner, or any other Packers player.  In general, the rehabilitation process for ACL injuries has improved significantly over recent years and it’s not unusual for a player to feel 100% back to normal within 6-12 months of the surgery.  Nelson is 9 months removed. 

FYIHakeem Nicks (NO) – Nicks signed a contract with the New Orleans Saints on Wednesday, giving the team a little extra depth at the wide receiver position.  Currently, Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead sit atop the Saints’ depth chart, but rookie Michael Thomas has been generating a lot of buzz early in camp.  Still just 28 years old, Nicks has primarily played with the Giants in his career, but he has failed to play regularly for any team since 2013.  When he has been on the field, Nicks has struggled with drops (completion percentage <60% every year since 2010).  The Saints just released veteran Vincent Brown, so Nicks is a logical addition, but with a crowded corps of receivers, there’s no guarantee he’ll make the team out of camp.

Arian Foster (MIA) -  The love affair between head coach Adam Gase and newly signed Arian Foster continued on Tuesday when the team’s website published the following quote from the coach: “"I really like his skill set. I've been an admirer of his for ... I don't know how long he's been playing. It just feels like forever. A great opportunity for us, him still being out there.”  After Foster signed, the obvious conclusion that most of us assumed was that he would handle the majority of the workload, particularly on passing downs.  The news flow since the signing hasn’t wavered from this thought, in fact, most of it has only strengthened the idea that Foster could conceivably see the lionshare of touches.  There’s always an opportunity for Jay Ajayi to make things interesting during training camp, so don’t get too excited about Foster just yet, but it certainly looks like Foster continues to have the edge. 

Notes prepared by Fantistics  Michael Waldo.

 

7/27/2016

A Look at ADP by Kyle Elfrink

Average Draft Position (ADP) should never be the end-all, be-all when it comes to mapping out your draft.  Still, it serves as a top signifier of ‘the way the wind is blowing,’ as we get closer to Week 1.  Let’s be honest, that magazine you bought on the way to the draft room was put together back in mid-June.  It’s missing key injuries have changed the roster make-up.  It’s missing rookies who’ve emerged in camp.  And, of course, it’s missing the results of all the many training camp battles that will have concluded in August.  In other words, it’s missing a load of the most important things!

My goal over the next month-and-a-half is to follow the trends and movements, to tell you why a certain player is going up or down, and to give you my take on whether or not it’s warranted.  Our numbers will come from the National Fantasy Football Championship, courtesy of their director, Greg Ambrosious.  For those looking for different ADP providers we track ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, NFFC, MFL, MFL PPR and a blended in our Fantistics Draft software.

Let’s get things rolling with a pair of fantasy stars ...

·         A September of Zeroes

If I told you that your top quarterback would score a grand total of ZERO points in September, would you still draft him?  If I told you that your ace running back – and, a player that you would have to select in the top 25 overall – would register a giant goose egg over the first four games of 2016, would you be willing to stomach it?

According to current ADP trends plenty of drafters aren’t avoiding such concerns when it comes to Tom Brady and Le’Veon Bell.

Brady’s situation (7th at QB and 69th overall) is the easier of the two to understand.  You might be able to get him closer to 10th at the position as we near September.  And, if he’s yours, you can easily find a fill-in for the first month of the year.  As we’ve noted time and time again, there is a load of QB talent and QB scoring to go around.  Even guys currently outside the top 15 at the position (Tony Romo, Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, and others) can more than cover you during Brady’s league-imposed sit-down.

The same cannot be said when you are without Bell (1st at RB and 6th overall) for a month.  The obvious survival technique is to draft the man who fill in for him, DeAngelo Williams (41st at RB and 131st overall).  Since the news came out on Bell, we’ve seen both players dip and surge.  Bell has come off the board as low as 15th overall in some drafts over the past few days, while Williams has ascended as high as 73rd overall.  No doubt that once more drafts start happening, we’ll see Bell slipping into the 20s and Williams finding his way inside the top-60.  A word of caution ... if you draft Bell early with the plan of adding Williams a few rounds later, understand that other owners in your league may choose to reach even further on Williams in an effort to crush your scheme.  Let’s just say, fellow league mates are often more interested in inflicting pain against their adversaries than they are in finding the correct guy for their own team.  It’s a fact of fantasy life.

Personally, Bell does not fit into my plan unless he’s landing in my lap sometime in round 3.  Frankly, I find that hard to fathom because I know that there will always be at least one owner in my league who is willing to grab a stud WR and then get what they perceive to be a stud RB at a bargain rate.  I do believe that Bell is a stud when he plays.  But, understand, he is guaranteed to miss one-quarter of the NFL schedule and a full one-third of the fantasy regular season (4 of 12 weeks).  Then, even when he’s back, you have to hope there’s no injury that could cause even more missed time.  Everyone is an injury risk, of course, but when a guy enters with an additional red flag of guaranteed games’ missed, you should be very wary.

·         Rookie Love

Nothing gets the pulse of an eager owner racing more than a new, hyped up rookie.  Coming into 2016, there is one name and one name alone, who has earned all the attention.  It’s Ezekial Elliott (4th at RB and 12th overall) of Dallas.  He’s a rare breed among rookie runners.  He lands in a great situation.  Dallas has a proven offensive line, they have a proven group of talented vets around him (Romo, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten), and he appears to have a wide-open path to work.  Heck, SI.com’s resident football savant, Peter King, said that there could be 375 carries headed Elliott’s way this year!

On the surface, it appears silly that such an unproven talent is suddenly going before, say, Adrian Peterson (5th at RB and 13th overall).  But, in our world, such situations are a yearly occurrence.  The ‘hit rate’ on rookies is not good at all, but we do usually see three-to-four of them emerge as regular fantasy starters.  Elliott is by far this year’s favorite to be in that club.  With the ability to run, catch, and block, he should be on the field for a great deal of time.  Everything is set up for him to be a perfect strike in his rookie year.  Still, I would rather take an elite WR or even Peterson ... guys who have performed at a high level for at least a couple of years ... before tying my fortunes to a completely unknown prospect.  That reasoning works for some, but for many who chase noise, Elliott will be their target.  I’m more into stability and predictability.  Right now, the former-Buckeye’s star is shining too brightly for my tastes.

·         Get Those Pass Catchers Early

Making Elliott’s current ADP even more remarkable is that he is one of the few non-WRs that we are seeing among the first 20 names off the board.  The first four names called out at draft tables everywhere are wide receivers.  Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, and DeAndre Hopkins, are your top four right now and they figure to stay in those spots.  Beyond their names you’ll see another 10 WRs in the next 17 picks.  It works out to 14 of 21 ... that’s a mark we’ve never seen before.

It’s probably a worthy total, though.  Quarterbacks can be found late.  The field of viable Running Backs continues to shrink.  There’s only one Tight End (Rob Gronkowski, 1st at TE and 11th overall) you should consider in the first 35 selections.  And, you draft a Kicker or Team Defense anywhere, but the final two rounds, you’ve screwed the pooch.

Meanwhile, wideouts are putting up big time numbers and since many leagues require a weekly starting lineup with three such players, you need to strike early and often.  My recommendation is that – at the very least – two of your first four picks are WRs.  And, when it’s all said and done, you should walk away from the draft with 5-6 WRs on your roster.  For a 16-round get-together, that means that more than a third of your team is made of pass-catchers.

·         From the Surgeon’s Table to the Top 50

The wonders of modern medicine seem to have their greatest support from the world of sports’ fans.  Baseball fans seem to consider Tommy John surgery as little more than a severely pulled hamstring.  They seem to be confused and in pure denial about the struggles one is expected to encounter during a comeback.

For fantasy football, the injury that many see to consider less-than-serious is the blown up knee.  Coming into 2016, the likes of Jordy Nelson (8th at WR and 15th overall), Kelvin Benjamin (22nd at WR and 33rd overall), Jamaal Charles (8th at RB and 25th overall), and Thomas Rawls (15th at RB and 47th overall) are all returning from severe knee injuries.  Excluding Rawls, the other three have very decent shots to be ready in Week 1.  But, to expect them to be 100% from the get-go might be far-fetched.  To me, Benjamin is only one of the four that I have limited concerns about.

Nelson is 31 years old and his entire game is mostly predicated on beating teams down the field on long tosses with Aaron Rodgers.  I believe some of that speed could be lost.  Charles has had two major knee surgeries in the past four years and we saw Kansas City hold onto both backup’s in the offseason (Spencer Ware, Charcandrick West).  That tells me that, at the very least Charles won’t be quite the workhorse we’ve usually seen.  As for Rawls, he still has work to do in order to be set for action and Seattle gave plenty of indications that they are also hesitant to rely on him (there are at least four competitor’s for work in the Seahawk backfield).

I’m not saying that you shouldn’t touch any of these players.  Risk is a part of every draft.  Each of them has a nice level of payoff if things go in their favor.  I can sign-off on drafting one of them in the top 50, but to make two of them a part of your team is ill-advised.

·         You Remember Me ... You Love Me ... You Want to Draft Me, Right?!

Ah, talent.  For something you can touch, smell, or even always count on, it will always rule the sports world.  Talent earns respect.  Talent garners interest.  Talent will always intrigue.  And, talent will always lead to second, third, and even fourth chances.  Look no further than our friend, Josh Gordon.

I can’t even recall the last good game he played, but the mere possibility of his return to an NFL field seems to bring out rabid curiosity in the fantasy world.  Supposedly, the suspended wide receiver has met with Commissioner Roger Goodell and he has been told that he can take aim at being reinstated for Week 5.  It appears that, for now, Cleveland will have a roster spot awaiting him, too.

His current ADP stands at #72 among wide receivers.  Beyond that low-end, he’s also currently slotted as the 220th player overall.  Both numbers should jump dramatically in the coming weeks.  Heck, already, there has been an NFFC draft when he went at ... 66 overall.  That’s an utterly terrible choice for someone who has done nothing for two years, will miss four games to begin the season, has no reliable QB to speak of, is one misstep away from likely being thrown out of the league, who still hangs out with Johnny Manziel, and ... well, ... how many reasons do you need?!  I’d stay away at all costs and avoid the ‘talent’ trap.

You can hear Kyle each weeknight on ‘The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive’ from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.

Contained within the Fantistics Draft Software is the ability to choose different ADP providers (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, NFFC, RTSports and blended). Other than the usefulness of using the different ADPs to more closely match the way your draft will go, this also allows us the ability to complete different mock drafts using different ADP sources, giving you a different draft in each scenario.

 

7/26/2016

Browns’ wide receiver Josh Gordon will be reinstated after serving a four-game suspension to start the 2016 season, according to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport.  Still just 25 years old, Gordon has only played in five games in the past two years. Where he will go in drafts this August will be one of the more interesting fantasy dilemmas owners will face this summer…Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell took to Instagram confirming that he is appealing the reported four-game suspension he is facing for missing multiple drug tests. Bell declared he is "gonna win the appeal".  However, unless the Steelers’ running back has some legitimate reasons for missing the tests it is highly unlikely he’ll avoid receiving the league’s mandatory punishment… The Jets have given free agent quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick “multiple offers” to look over, per the New York Daily News. One of the offers allegedly is a three-year, $24 million deal… Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy expects a big bounce-back season for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, claiming this “is the best shape I’ve seen him in” when asked about the quarterback by beat writers. Rodgers had arthroscopic knee surgery back in January following the worse season of his career… It looks as if Bills’ wide receiver Sammy Watkins (foot) is making progress in his recovery. "Any explosiveness I’m doing that. I’m doing the cuts, but certain things are full speed and certain things aren’t," he told the Buffalo News. He expects to be a full go by Week 1, but owners will need to see him for themselves before going all in of the wide receiver on draft day… Wide receivers Jordy Nelson (knee) and Ty Montgomery (ankle surgery) as well as newly acquired tight end Jared Cook (foot surgery) were placed on the active / PUP list by the Packers to start training camp. Veteran wide receiver Greg Jennings announced his retirement via YouTube on Monday. He played 10 years in the league, including seven with Green Bay where he caught 425 balls for 6,537 yards and 53 touchdowns and helped the Packers to a Super Bowl title in 2010. Dan Clasgens

Contained within our player projections software is a notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a look at some of the Runningbacks that will be part of your 2016 draft (In no particular order):


Charles,Jamaal One of the most productive backs in the league when healthy, as he consistently averages over 5.0 YPC and 1.15 Fantasy Points per Attempt. In fact, Charles has averaged over 5.0 YPC every season since coming into the league 8 years ago. May not see the volume he has in the past, as the Chiefs will want to maintain his health. 1,500 total yards with 10+ TDs is almost a lock if he can play a full season. Offensive line is rated out to be A favorable "B" grade, and his Strength of Schedule remains at a C grading.

Jennings,Rashad Was only in on 38% of the snaps last season, but after running for 4.8 YPC in the second half with 680 total yards, his activity should adjust upward this season.

Forsett,Justin Struggled to open the season with only 2 QS in his first 10 games (before injury), which is concerning. Although the Offensive line is considered very good (B+) and a favorable B schedule against the run is expected, he does struggle in the red zone 5% Red Zone success rate last season. There is some risk here, which makes Javorious Allen a consideration in deeper leagues.

Mathews,Ryan Despite only being involved in 21% of the snaps last season, Mathews still managed 680+ yards. With DeMarco and Kelly gone, Mathews should once again find himself as the featured back with upside in PPR leagues. C+ Schedule with 8 favorable matchups projected and still one of the better lines in the league (B+).

McCoy,LeSean McCoy is slowing down a bit, but still a productive back, averaging 15.1 FPG and .79 FP per Attempt last season. He was expected to give up the Red Zone to Karlos Williams, however Williams will be suspended to start the season, and McCoy's 8 QS in 12 games is encouraging.

 

Danny Woodhead

Many speculated that Danny Woodhead would suffer moving from New England to San Diego, but during his time as a Charger the crafty running back has averaged 63 total yards and five catches per game while scoring 17 touchdowns in 35 contests. Woodhead stepped up with 81 catches for 756 yards and six scores to go along with 335 yards and three touchdowns on 97 carries in 2015. Woodhead suffered a sprained ankle during mini-camp, but it appears he is back to 100 percent. "It took a couple weeks, but now I’m as healthy as I’ve been in a long time," he said. "I feel great going into the season."

Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen had 67 catches in Week 8 when he sustained a lacerated kidney that ended his season. The sure-handed wide out (only two drops in last two years) is a receptions machine and should fall slightly due to missing so much time last year. However, he doesn’t get a ton of work in the red zone and doesn’t have the speed to get many deep balls. He’s only scored eight of the 45 passing touchdowns San Diego has tallied over the past two years. He’s a low-end WR1 in PPR leagues, but a WR2 in other formats.

Matt Jones

Matt Jones was high on my board a year ago going into the season and showed early promise, but only averaged 2.8 yards per carry over his final 11 games while fumbling five times in 163 touches (worst amongst running backs). However, Alfred Morris is out of the picture, Chris Thompson is only a change-of-pace, garbage-time, receiving back for the most part, and rookie Keith Marshall may not even make the team. Job security is more solid than most realize.  He did quietly have 304 receiving yards a year ago in limited capacity, including plays of 78 and 45 yards. Jones is a great RB2 value in any format going there in most drafts in Round 5.

FYITony Romo

After averaging 306 passing yards per game in 2012, Tony Romo has only averaged 248 yards the last three years. At 36, he enters this year with serious durability concerns and in an offense that appears to be all in on running the football. His days of being counted on as QB1 are over. He’s not a bad QB2, but that is generally a spot where owners are better served in going with some upside. He offers nothing from a rushing perspective either. Fantistics projects Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, Kirk Cousins, and Derek Carr ahead of the Dallas signal caller in most formats this season.

Jordan Matthews

Jordan Matthews doesn’t make many big plays as evident by his 11.7 yards per catch last year. His big frame comes in handy in tight spaces though. He pulled in seven of his eight targets inside the 10-yard line a year ago, including five touchdowns. He’s a safe bet for 1100 receiving yards and 9-10 touchdowns this year, making him a reliable late WR2 option.

Player InjuryJulian Edelman

It didn’t come as much of a surprise that wide receiver Julian Edelman (foot surgeries) will start training camp on the PUP list.  Edelman has not been medically cleared to practice and it doesn’t appear we will see much of him, if at all, during the preseason. Given the fact he has had two foot surgeries since last November he seems to be a big risk entering 2016. Add to the fact that quarterback Tom Brady (suspension) is not expected to play the first five weeks of the season and it’s hard to justify Edelman’s current WR20 / 31.02 overall ADP he is registering currently in the NFFC.

Player InjuryDion Lewis

Running back Dion Lewis (ACL) will start training camp on New England’s active/PUP list despite participating in mini-camp a month ago. When we last saw him in June, Lewis was on the field and without a brace on his surgically repaired knee. Owners shouldn’t read too much into this yet. It’s early and this is the Patriots. For now, treat Lewis as RB2 material in PPR leagues with a fair amount of upside. The team is likely just not rushing him into things. It should be noted that LeGarrette Blount (hip) was not but on the team’s active/PUP list. Expect the Patriots to lean heavily on its running game in the first month of the season as they’ll be playing without Tom Brady (suspended).

FYIVictor Cruz

Victor Cruz (knee) missed all of 2015, but has declared himself healthy this offseason. During his interview on Sunday on Fantistics Insider Football on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports radio Jerry Foley of TheGiantInsider.com said, “He’s more excited and the Giants are cautiously optimistic…but I am looking at player even if he returns that will be 60 to 80 percent of what he once was.” Owners can keep an eye on Cruz during August, but probably will be best served letting someone else take a crack at him.

Blaine Gabbert

CSN Bay Area is reporting that Blaine Gabbert is the early leader over Colin Kaepernick to be the starting quarterback in Week 1 for the 49ers. Gabbert was quietly pretty solid down the stretch last year, including averaging 291 yards per game with 4 TD passes over his last three contests. Kaepernick will need a strong training camp and preseason effort if he is going to leapfrog Gabbert on new head coach Chip Kelly’s depth chart in San Francisco.

Player InjuryJoe Flacco

Despite suffering a torn ACL just eight months ago Joe Flacco will be available for the start of training camp. The Ravens did not include Flacco on the PUP list. He’s coming off a subpar 2015 campaign, but much of his struggles can be attributed to injuries around him. Flacco finished with only 2.719 yards passing and 14 touchdowns in 10 games last season.

FYITheo Riddick

Theo Riddick has a monster season catching the ball out of the Lions’ backfield in 2015, finishing with 80 receptions. However, he only had 43 rushing attempts and there doesn’t appear many more carries for him this year.  Justin Rogers of MLives.com stated it be “unreasonable” to expect more carries for the veteran despite the significant amount of questions at the running back position in Detroit. He makes for a nice flex option in PPR leagues, but should be avoided in standard formats.

FYILaquon Treadwell

Minnesota rookie wide receiver Laquon Treadwell feels like he’s finally "back to full strength" from the left tibia fracture and ankle dislocation he sustained in November of 2014. “I wasn’t 100 percent in anything I did from the beginning of spring ball (in 2015) to Pro Day (March 28, 2016),” he said on Monday. “I was playing on one leg my whole junior season. It felt like I had a fire in my foot." Treadwell's pre-draft workout metrics disappointed, but he is immensely talented and offers some nice long-term upside. Playing in the pedestrian Vikings’ passing attack appears to be a bigger concern for his fantasy outlook. He’ll likely be over drafted in redraft leagues.

Sam Bradford

Eagles head coach Doug Pederson gave incumbent starting quarterback another vote of confidence on Monday.  "I’ve said all along that Sam’s the guy," the coach claimed. After the team traded up to No. 2 to draft Carson Wentz, Bradford became a sitting duck. Following a pedestrian 2015 campaign, he will be on a very short leash under the Eagles’ new regime. Philadelphia’s quarterback situation should be avoided altogether in fantasy, but getting some stable production there will be pivotal for success of some players with more fantasy appeal such as wide receiver Jordan Matthews and tight end Zach Ertz.

Player InjuryClive Walford

Oakland will ease tight end into camp Clive Walford (lacerated knee), per ESPN's Adam Caplan. He suffered a "big gash" on his knee in an ATV incident during the offseason. He was able to run on Sunday and there doesn’t appear to be much concern about his availability for Week 1. Walford is expected to start for the Raiders in 2016, dethroning Mychal Rivera, and is a nice late-round target playing in an up-and-coming Raiders’ offense.

Player InjuryJ.J. Watt

The Texans have placed DL J.J. Watt on the PUP list to begin training camp. The All-Pro underwent surgery last week to repair on herniated disk in his back. The timetable is 8-10 weeks for him to return to the field. He will be hard-pressed to be ready for Week 1, but at this point is still not expected to miss regular-season time. Houston takes a huge hit without him in the lineup.

Notes prepared by Fantistics Dan Clasgens.
 

 

7/25/2016

Contained within our player projections software is a notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a look at some of the Tight  Ends that will be part of your 2016 draft (In no particular order):


Barnidge,Gary The Browns Gary Barnidge was the 3rd best TE last season, is his 8th round ADP a value? It sure is. Barnidge was consistent throughout the 2015 season, registering 11 Quality Starts, and posting a 13.1 Fantasy Points per game average in the 2nd half. Consider that in 2015, when he was targeted with 2 or more passes in the Red Zone, there was only 1 game in which he didn't score a TD. This despite the additional coverage that he drew all season. In 2016, he will be better off if Josh McCown wins the starting role, and if rookie receiver Corey Coleman can step right in, Barnidge can once again provide his owners with significant value. Some regression expected, but we still consider him a top 7 talent at the position.

Witten,Jason Solid 74% completion rate, but production came in spurts as evidenced by his meager 4 QS in 2015. Obviously missed Romo, but at 34 he's running on low. Despite this he's a lock almost every season to be a top 10.

Tamme,Jacob Showed some fantasy relevance in 4 games last season, and caught a solid 73% of targets but wasn't a Red Zone consideration with only a 14% Success rate. Now with rookie Hooper in the mix, he's a deep reach in most leagues.

Bennett,Martellus Essentially missed the 2nd half of 2015. Moves on to New England, where he becomes an interesting piece in a system that once supported 2 fantasy viable Test. Overall his value does take a hit as he's not likely to achieve the success he had in 2014 when he averaged 13.6 FPG. That said he'll be serviceable on occasion, and a top 5 if Gronk gets injured.

Olsen,Greg 3rd in the league at his position in targeted passes, but the frequency led to some predictability in the Red Zone in the 2nd half when he only scored 2 TDs and overall registered a subpar 25% Red Zone success rate. With Benjamin back in the fold, some of that predictability will be diminished. Regardless he's a top 5 fantasy TE almost every season.

Walker,Delanie Had his best season ever with rookie QB Mariotta. 10 QS, 16.2 PPG, 133 targets, 87/1088 yards, and 242 PPR fantasy Points was 4th best in the league. That said, the Titans are expected to run the ball more, especially in the Red Zone, so some regression is expected.


Fantasy Football Draft Day Dominance!

Last season, our software ranked Devonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2015. (click here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+ year track record).

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FYILangford,Jeremy - CHI/RB: Langford impressed mightily as a rookie in spot duty for the oft injured Matt Forte last year – rushing for 537 yards and six TDs and catching 22 passes and one TD. In fact, Langford’s potential was one of the reasons the Bears were confident in letting Forte go, but on the other hand, they weren’t confident enough to pass up on impressive college RB Jordan Howard in the draft earlier this year. Chicago knows it needs to avoid Jay Cutler carrying the offense with his gunslinging ways because that never ends well, so the running game remains key. The departure of offensive coordinator Adam Gase albeit is a negative as is the threat of a running back by committee situation since Langford hasn’t proven he can handle the lead rushing load for 16 games, but Langford will be a nice low end RB2/high end RB3 in most league formats if he has a strong preseason.

FYIGordon,Melvin - SD/RB: When Gordon finished up his college playing career in Wisconsin, he looked like a can’t miss prospect but now there are doubts everywhere. He had a horrendous rookie year that saw him score ZERO TDs and left him in need of microfracture surgery which is usually the death knell of the many athletes that undergo it. There are examples of a healthy return such as former RB great Garrison Hearst many years ago and Gordon does have youth on his side. SD has beefed up its offensive line but Gordon will be a gamble even as a RB3 unless he really does return for training camp like he said he would and impresses during the preseason.

FYIThomas,Demaryius - DEN/WR: Despite the Super Bowl ring, most fans memories of Thomas in 2015 was a whole lot of dropped passes in big situations. It all started with the infamous game in snowy Denver against New England when it appeared he dropped everything that was thrown at him. It continued into the playoffs – resulting in a disappointing run of seven catches for 60 yards and no scores. Thomas faces an unpredictable 2016 with an unsettled QB situation (Mark Sanchez…ugh) so his draft value will drop to WR2 in most leagues.

FYIRobinson,Allen - JAX/WR: Robinson had a breakout 2015 season – just his second in the league – scoring 14 TDs and racking up 80 catches for 1,400 yards on 151 targets! Blake Bortles took the Jacksonville offense to great heights last year with Robinson being the key beneficiary. The Jags have been loading up on offense through free agency and the draft for years but finally broke through with actual results last year. 2016 should be an even better year due to all the experience the young team soaked up but Jax needs to learn how to win games and not just get caught up in shootouts. Either way, Robinson was arguably the best deep threat in all of football last year (17.5 YPR) and will continue to thrive as a WR1.

FYICarr,Derek - OAK/QB: Carr had a strong fantasy season last year but did regress over the last quarter plus – throwing seven INTs in his last five games. Oakland’s offense was untouchable from Week 2 to Week 9 but opposing defenses started catching on to what they were doing and made it tougher on Carr who started to lock onto receivers early and did not have a reliable running game to help him out. He put too much pressure on himself and wasn’t helped a great deal by an inconsistent defense. With the defense adding some free agent studs this offseason, the pressure will be on Carr to take his game to the next level, or has the league caught up to him and the Oakland passing scheme?

FYIMurray,DeMarco - TEN/RB: Murray had a terribly disappointing first season in Philly, mostly because he wasn’t used right, but was doing cartwheels as soon as word came down that he was traded to Tennessee. What is the best thing a young QB can wish for? If you said a stud RB to become the focus of the offense, you are correct. Marcus Mariota showed a world of talent last year without a running game, now with Murray in town and being used the right way (running up the middle and not laterally), expect a big bounce back year. Don’t expect 392 carries like in 2014 when he was with Dallas, but he will pound that rock up the middle in excess of 300 times! He will be drafted in most leagues as a RB2 but could be a steal as a lower tier RB1.

Smith,Torrey - SF/WR: Smith was a disastrous fantasy pick last year because he was a part of one of the worst offenses in the league. The Jim Tomsula-led 49ers will be remembered for a lot of things (all bad) but the inability to scheme and get a proven playmaker the ball on a regular basis was terribly embarrassing. 33 catches? In comes new head coach Chip Kelly who is a proven offensive mind with some decent parts to work with. We don’t know who is going to start at QB despite ownership’s obvious preference for Blaine Gabbert over Colin Kaepernick, but Kelly’s rep is to put a system together that even an average QB can look great at times (i.e. Nick Foles). Additionally, Kelly’s offense is at its best when there is a deep threat (Kelly getting rid of DeSean Jackson was terrible in hindsight) because it allows space which he is a master at manipulating.

FYIWilson,Russell - SEA/QB: Wilson had the best fantasy season of his four year career in 2015 – a lot of which had to do with Marshawn Lynch’s injury prone season. With the now retired Lynch not at full strength for long stretches of last season, Seattle’s offense went from run-based to pass-based, and did quite well due to Wilson’s uncanny improvisational ability in the pocket. Even without Jimmy Graham who missed a big chunk of last year due to injury, Wilson was a one man band, scrambling and throwing for his life. He was helped by rookie RB Thomas Rawls before he was lost for the season due to his own injury, but it was Russell’s show last year. He threw for 4,024 yards, 34 TDs and rushed for 553 yards. On the downside, no Lynch allowed opposing defenses to tee off on Seattle’s suspect offensive line and hammer Wilson like he’s never been hammered before (was sacked 45 times!). If he can stay upright, Wilson is a solid mid to lower tier QB1.

FYIRodgers,Richard - GB/TE: Most fans remember Rodgers as the guy who caught that incredible Hail Mary pass from Aaron Rodgers against Detroit late last season, but the third year TE emerged as a reliable TE fantasy option. He increased his TD total from two his rookie year to eight last year and even more importantly, Aaron Rodgers started consistently looking his way in the red zone – showing he had the stud QBs confidence. Rodgers will be a TE1 option in some league formats which is fine but with Jordy Nelson returning and Eddie Lacy looking to be in actual good shape this year, there is only one ball to go around to all these proven fantasy stars.

Player InjuryPerriman,Breshad - BAL/WR: The potential star WR has been riddled with injuries since he was drafted last year by Baltimore, but looked to be raring for a big start to the 2016 season until he partially tore his ACL. The team is hoping that he can actually return at some point in the preseason but that is a big if. Another big if is if he lost any of his rocket fast speed due to so many knee issues. Perriman will not be a popular draft pick but keep an eye on his progress because stranger things have happened.

FYIAbdullah,Ameer - DET/RB: Abdullah had surgery for a torn labrum right after the regular season ended so he should be fine to go when training camp starts soon. With Joique Bell no longer a Lion, the second year former Husker will be the lead back but should share carries more than your typical back – thus limiting his value. The speedy cutback specialist struggled mightily at the beginning of last season but became more comfortable with a more defined role when Detroit switched offensive coordinators to Jim Bob Cooter. He received about 15 or so touches a game which led to increased averages for both run and catch. With Megatron gone, it will be interesting to see how Detroit responds, but Abdullah remains a gamble as a high end RB3.

Player InjuryWatkins,Sammy - BUF/WR: Watkins is progressing well following offseason foot surgery and is reportedly set to go when training camp starts later this week. The third year receiver has had his share of the injury bug during his short career but his woes appear to be more fluke related than chronic. He shook off a terrible start to last season and finished with six TDs in his last six games. He is far and away the best receiver on the Bills and QB Tyrod Taylor impressed many last year with his progress throughout the season. Watkins will be drafted as a low tier WR1/high tier WR2 so he will be a hot commodity.

Player InjuryWatt,JJ - HOU/DL: The IDP beast underwent back surgery this past week which may be much bigger news than is being let on by the team. He is scheduled to be out for 2 months which puts his return at the end of September – so it is with certainty he will miss some regular season action. A herniated disc is nothing to take lightly and can linger for much longer than he is out, so how will he respond being double and triple teamed as usual? Watt will still likely be picked #1 off the IDP board for defensive linemen because he backs up the hype (17.5 sacks/76 tackles last year) that accompanies him but he may face some early season blues.

Green,Ladarius - PIT/TE: Green will have the daunting task of filling in the void left by recent retiree Heath Miller – one of Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite targets of all time. The four year veteran Green has always impressed San Diego fans with his athleticism at such a formidable size (6’6”, 240 lbs) but has never had that breakout type season to validate such fuzzy feelings. He is coming off a career high 4 TDs last year on 37 receptions so the Steelers felt that was good enough to sign the long time Antonio Gates-backup. It should be noted that Green is coming off minor offseason ankle surgery but all reports indicate he will be fine for 2016. He projects as a high end TE2 but could easily drop in drafts because of the uncertainty of being in a new offense.

Williams,DeAngelo - PIT/RB: With fantasy stud but injury prone Le’Veon Bell most likely missing the first four games of the season due to a violation of the NFL’s substance abuse policy, for the second straight year, Williams will be the Steelers’ lead running back out of the gate. RBs usually hit the decline post 30 years old but because the 33-year old Williams shared carries during his many years in Carolina, his legs are fresher than his age would indicate. On 200 carries in 2015, Bell rushed for 11 TDs and caught 40 passes. Both Williams and Bell were injured at the tail end of last year – which forced the Steelers to start Fitzgerald Toussaint in the playoffs – but both backs were fantasy gold when in the lineup. Pittsburgh’s offense has consistently been high octane for years but Ben Roethlisberger showed last year he is no longer indestructible and Martavis Bryant will be out the entire year due to suspension, and with Bell’s status, Williams should be a strong middle round pick in most leagues.

Notes prepared by Fantistics Jasbir Singh.

 

7/24/2016

Contained within our player projections software is a notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a look at some of the Wide Receivers that will be part of your 2016 draft (In no particular order):


Hopkins,DeAndre Saw an obscene number of targets last season: 192, which of course made him a target of opposing defenses every week. Thus a sub par 58% reception rate. That said the overall fantasy production was excellent (329 FP, and 20.6 FPG), and even though they are going to need to spread the ball around more this season, he's still going to be the dominant playmaker on this team. Sure the QB situation isn't ideal, but that hasn't affected him in the past. Don't pay for last year, but still a top 10 overall selection in PPR leagues.
Allen,Keenan Was on pace to see 180 targets last season before a mid season injury ended his season. 100 receptions in 2016 is well within his reach and a more neutral schedule against the pass expected (C+).
Williams,Terrance Solid 16.2 YPR, but his 56% reception rate and 11% Red Zone success rate are not likely to lead to more production with Dez Bryant back and healthy.
Wilson,Marquess Big Play receiver, who is not likely to flourish in this offense. 55% Reception rate and no Red Zone success last season, keeps him o the outside looking in.
Stills,Kenny Was completely not on the same page with Tennehill last season, as evidenced by his 43% completion rate. A year in, that should improve, but he's still not one of the primary targets going in.
Austin,Tavon Production has come sporadically, his 9.1 YPR does not support a 60% reception rate (should be higher). Did however post 8.1 YPC on his 46 runs, so we may see some more activity as a scat back.
Matthews,Jordan Performed extremely well in the 2nd half compiling 120 Fantasy Points (2.26 FP per attempt), despite a meager 53 targets. Will see some time in the slot, where he has excelled.
Watkins,Sammy Nice jump in production last season (12.5 FPG to 16.8, but had to work through an early injury to get in sync. Dominated the 2nd half with 150 FP, 5 of 8 QS, and 2.12 FP per attempt. Expected to take another step forward in 2016.
Landry,Jarvis Saw 90 targets in the 2nd half, but only scored 2 TDs, for a 22% Red Zone success rate. Volume and ability is there, but will need to score more TDs to be considered a strong WR1.


Fantasy Football Draft Day Dominance!

Last season, our software ranked Devonta Freeman 6 rounds ahead of his ADP. We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not having a starting job. Doug Martin - 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Jordan Reed, 10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2015. (click here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+ year track record).

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TE Tyler Boyd, the wide receiver who will be expected to make an impact early and often for the Bengals this year. Boyd was very eclectic with the ball in his hand during his tenure at Pittsburgh University. As far as fantasy relevance goes, the Bengals let Mohammed Sanu and Marvin Jones walk this past off season. Not to mention tight end Tyler Eifert is still recovering from an ankle injury he suffered during the Pro Bowl. As a unit the Bengals were below league average in pass attempts per game only throwing the ball 32.1 times a game. Eifert accounted for 5.7 targets per game, while Sanu got 3.1 targets, and Jones saw 6.4 balls thrown his way per game. Until we get confirmation on Eifert’s timeline for return let’s assume Boyd will be fighting in camp for up to 15.2 targets per game spread out between the rest of the Bengals receiver corp. Obviously A.J Green will see an uptick in balls thrown his way but if Boyd can carve out a role from the inside slot position he should be looking at around 5 targets per game. Boyd is a middle to late round guy in seasonal drafts, but a sneaky player with upside in this offense to exceed projections in his rookie campaign.

Player InjuryJamaal Charles - Charles who is recovering from an ACL injury may not be cleared for training camp. This is no surprise, the big thing is Charles is still on pace to be ready for week one. His ADP has fallen with his recent injury history but Charles is still an RB1 talent and should be selected in the first few rounds.

FYIJosh Gordon - Gordon is a high end player when he is on the field. What we know is the NFL will allow Gordon to apply for reinstatement on August 1st. What we don’t know is if approved will Gordon be slapped with a suspension or will the Browns keep a hold of him. Gordon has second round potential if we know if he will be on the field for 16 games this year, but until we get clarification this is just a wait and see player.

FYIArian Foster - This is shaping up to be quite the timeshare in Miami. Foster will be competing with Jay Ajayi for the bulk of the carries. However drafting Foster has always been scary, he only appeared in four games last season. Unless you have an amazing gut feeling, this is a situation to avoid unless you can cuff Foster by drafting Ajayi as well.

FYISammy Watkins - Watkins is a very productive player when he stays healthy. It appears the Bills are going to be very cautious here to insure they have Watkins for week one. Last year we saw him put up 1,047 yards on 60 receptions and 9 touchdowns. One concerning stat with Watkins a year ago was the fact he only had two red zone touchdowns in 2015. If we can see him make a leap in consistency in 2016 then you can safely pencil Watkins in as a WR2. Let’s just hope he stays healthy all year.

FYIDavid Johnson - WIth some recent speculation on the workload Johnson will receive this year, let’s remember he is a workhorse type back. Johnson averaged 4.6 yards a carry last season and showed he can make an impact in the passing game scoring four touchdowns on 36 receptions. We’re looking at an high end RB1 in this year's fantasy drafts, with huge touchdown upside. On his eight carries inside the five yard line last year, Johnson scored five times. No reason to shy away from Johnson come draft day.

FYILe’Veon Bell - AS we touched on yesterday, Le’Veon will be facing a four game suspension to start the season after skipping a drug test.  Le’Veon has now dropped to a late 1st round selection in our Fantistics Software (league variances may change that), missing a fourth of the year from the jump is a huge blow to the Steelers and fantasy owners. Look for DeAngelo Williams to pick up the slack and Antonio Brown to have even more balls thrown his way.

Alshon Jeffery - In 2015 Alshon had fifteen targets in the red zone, something that should increase in 2016 with decent play from Jay Cutler. With a lot to prove this year even the Bears are questioning if Alshon is a true number one wide out. While the Bears are expected to get Kevin White on the field this year, Alshon will still be expected to put up big numbers. Entering his fifth NFL season, Alshon has only eclipsed a double digit TD season once. However the guy is a freak when 100% healthy and makes for a fine WR2.

FYIEzekiel Elliott - Accused of domestic violence in a recent report filed against Elliott from his ex girlfriend. We are going to have to take the wait and see approach here but if this turns out to be true as the pictures indicate, Elliott could have a long road ahead of him. It’s really hard to predict what will play out with this one, have to hope your drafts are down the road, not this weekend. Stunning blow to the rookies fantasy outlook and ADP. This is definitely a situation to monitor as we head closer to your league's draft day.

Player InjuryJordy Nelson - After a missing off of last season due to tearing his ACL during a preseason game, Nelson is well ahead of schedule for his return. This is a tough one to figure out, Jordy will unlikely be a high end WR1 as he was in 2014 but should remain the Packers number one guy. The role of WR2 should be fine for Jordy in fantasy, were looking at a guy with 70 catches and 10 touchdown upside going after the first two rounds.

Matt Jones - With all the tools to be a successful running back in the NFL, the biggest question is will Jones make the leap or fumble. After losing four fumbles last year there are real concerns with his ball security. Like many we have shrug that off as rookie woes, the Redskins are going to give Jones every opportunity to shine. A stat that will come back down to earth in 2016 but a year ago Jones averaged 23.4 yards per reception on his 19 catches. The versatility is there for a huge year. Jones is a risk/reward RB2 but personally I think the reward is much higher than the risk here.

FYIJameis Winston - After throwing for 4,042 yards and 22 touchdowns as a rookie, Jameis will be asked to do more in year two. The Buccaneers will try to establish the run game in 2016 but with Mike Evans on the outside and the still productive Vincent Jackson, Jameis will put up some huge fantasy numbers. Winston is a guy you can grab in the later rounds and expect great quality in return. Also don’t negate the fact Winston added six rushing touchdowns a season ago. A very nice QB2 or low end QB1 depending on your draft style.

FYITorrey Smith - The ultimate wildcard come draft day. Smith has shown flashes of huge play making ability in his career but the consistency has never quite been there. With Chip Kelly calling the shots we should see Smith run more underneath routes and get the ball in space more. In PPR leagues especially Smith is worth a look, but not before the ninth round. However a nice WR3/4 with upside to grow in this new offensive scheme for the 49ers.

FYIQB Jared Goff - Everyone loves the shiny new toy on the block, meet Jared Goff the 6’4 gunslinger of the Los Angeles Rams. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Rams cut Goff loose and let him throw the ball forty times a game, however he has some real skill guys to work with. Tavon Austin is amazing when he has the ball in open space, Todd Gurley looks to be an absolute monster back for years to come. There is little reason to reach on Goff in your upcoming drafts, but be sure to take a look in your final few rounds. The glorified prospect may pay off dividends as the season progresses. It was hard for me to use data that I like because I don't think a lot of college production correlates to the NFL. Also until we see some of these guys in a real NFL game it's hard to make an honest projection of fantasy value.

Notes prepared by Fantistics Bradley Funk.

7/23/2016

Hi Folks,  The NFL off-season is officially about to end, as many of the NFL training camps will open later this weekend and into early next week! The time has come to combine the offseason developments with what’s happening on the practice fields. Over the next 6 weeks, we’re going to cover the field as it pertains to our fantasy football genre. As we do every season we'll be discussing Player Projection Changes, Camp Developments/ News, ADP movement, Rookie Box Scores (preseason games), and Fantasy Strategy. Sit back and enjoy there's lots of action coming over the next 6 weeks! - Anthony Perri

Catching Up Around The League

We’ve already got plenty of football fun before teams report for training camp next week.  Some of the important pieces to watch early on are the players coming off injury, rookies, and the camp battles that are relevant to fantasy.  There are some strong fantasy options coming off significant injuries last year including Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, Jordy Nelson, Steve Smith, and Thomas Rawls to name a few.  Foster has been working his way back from a torn Achilles with the Texans last season and just earlier this week got signed to play with the Dolphins.  He’ll have to prove his health and battle second year player Jay Ajayi to take the starting role, but should he get and remain healthy, Foster could do some damage this season...Kansas City will be happy to have Jamaal Charles back behind the line this fall, but he’ll likely take it easy early on through the preseason.  Charcandrick West was the best handcuff for Charles last season, and although that seems to be a good plan this year, there have already been rumblings of Spencer Ware being the better option.  Keep an eye on that second-string battle in camp...Jordy Nelson lost an entire season after getting knocked out in the preseason in 2015.  He looks poised for a big return and the Packers, aka Aaron Rodgers, will be thrilled to have him back.  Nelson should be healthy and ready week one, making him easily a top 10 at the receiver position with top 5 in his sights...Steve Smith is coming off a rough, injury-filled season last year, in what was supposed to be his last.  Well, it isn’t, and he should be ready to return to Baltimore at the start of the season.  He’ll battle for targets with Mike Wallace, Kamar Aiken and Ben Watson though, which could knock him down from his strong 2016 start...Look for Thomas Rawls to be held out a bit through the preseason as Seattle takes care of their new lead back.  With Marshawn Lynch done for good, Rawls is in a nice spot in the Seattle backfield.  There are a few other options in that backfield though, so keep an eye on camp and the preseason to see if C.J. Prosise or Christine Michael is worthy of a look in fantasy.  Early on it seems Prosise could provide some value as a pass catcher...Another player to watch in Seattle is Jimmy Graham, who is coming off a serious injury that could limit him early on.  Graham was a huge disappointment in his first season in Seattle, and coming off injury, he isn’t going to be a top fantasy option...The Texans will be without JJ Watt through preseason and possibly into the season after he underwent back surgery this week.  The exact timetable is a guess, but it’s been set around 6-10 weeks.  Getting Watt back to his full ability might take even longer than that though.   This  obviously hurts the Texans team defense to start the year...Aside from injury, there are some suspensions to look out for as well.  Most notably, Le’Veon Bell is facing a four game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.  This would put DeAngelo Williams in the backfield to start the season for Pittsburgh for a second straight season...Though he’s a backup, second year RB Karlos Williams is facing the same suspension in Buffalo for the same violation.  He showed major promise on his way to 9 touchdowns as a rookie, and with LeSean McCoy a little fragile, Williams would have been a solid fantasy pick up prior to the suspension.  He still has a chance to make some noise once he returns from suspension, though he will need to drop some pounds after reporting early in the summer quite overweight...Josh Gordon looks to get reinstated from his long NFL ban, but we won’t know his status until at least August 1.  Gordon met with Roger Goodell this week as part of the process to get reinstated.  Cleveland is currently rocking rookie Corey Coleman atop their WR depth chart...Another rookie of importance early on is Ezekiel Elliott, who was accused of domestic violence on Friday.  Elliott claims to have proof that the accusations are false, but until we find out more, this should be monitored closely.  Elliott is primed for a huge rookie season running behind the Dallas line...In Denver it looks as though Mark Sanchez is the early favorite at QB, while Blaine Gabbert appears to have a slight lead on Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco.  The Jets and Ryan Fitzpatrick are still pretending like they won’t strike up a deal, which means that Geno Smith is in line to be the starter.  It would be a surprise if this were the case all the way to the start of the Jeremy McGoldrick

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Contained within our player projections software is a notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a look at some of the Running backs that will be part of your 2016 draft (In no particular order):


Gurley,Todd Is Todd Gurley your number 1 Fantasy RB heading into your draft? With Bell expected to be suspended, Gurley has now moved into our #1 RB slot. Sure production waned a little in the 2nd half 111/444 4.0 YPC, but his schedule did toughen up considerably (D grade). Still lots to be encouraged with including his .81 FP per attempt, 28% Red Zone success rate, and 81% reception rate (with an impressive 9.0 YPR). Look for his biggest jump to come in the receiving numbers. Still finished as a top 5 RB (non PPR), despite only playing in 41% of the team's offensive snaps!
Forte,Matt Despite an injury laden season in 2015, Forte maintained an above average 76% reception rate with .84 FP per attempt. Still enough left I the legs to be a fantasy asset.
Peterson,Adrian Still averaging a productive 4.5 YPC, and he posted a consistent season with 12 Quality Starts. Averaged 16.7 Fantasy Points per game, once again putting him among the top 5 rushers in the league. Sure there are plenty of guys that could surpass him in fantasy, but he's risk profile has been age defying. Strength of Schedule remains a C+.
Stewart,Jonathan Not going to wow you with his overall numbers, as he's not going to score a bunch (as evidenced by his 13-15% Red Zone rate), but he is going to once again see a bulk of the carries for a good offensive team. As always, remaining healthy for an entire season has been a challenge for him.
Gore,Frank Has averaged a sub par 5 QS per season the last 3 seasons, with a slightly below average 12.5 FPG. Although his production is waning, he has been pretty consistent and rarely gets hurt. Not a bad RB 3.
Sproles,Darren Production in the short receiving game fell considerably last season, as his YPR fell from 10.0 to 7.1. Opposing defenses simply were ready for him when he was in the game (34% of offensive snaps). Expect him to stay active I the passing game, but he's difficult to rely on as his Quality Starts are usually spaced apart (has averaged only 2 QS the last 3 years).
Johnson,Chris Although Johnson ran wild in the first half of the season (141 carries/676 yards), he only had 5 receptions. The plan is for 2nd year David Johnson to be the bell cow, Johnson should be considered an insurance option heading into draft day.
Charles,Jamaal One of the most productive backs in the league when healthy, as he consistently averages over 5.0 YPC and 1.15 Fantasy Points per Attempt. May not see the volume he has in the past, as the Chiefs will want to maintain his health. Offensive line is rated out to be A favorable "B" grade, and his Strength of Schedule remains at a C grading.
Lewis,Dion Was killing it before his injury last season when he was averaging an incredible 1.88 Fantasy Points per attempt, with 17.5 FPG. That was good enough for 5 quality starts in his 7 games played. Huge upside if he can stay healthy.
Murray,DeMarco Murray moves to an offense that has committed to running the ball more in 2016. Unfortunately they drafted the 2nd best college RB in this year's draft to run behind him. Last year Murray struggled with the offensive alignment in Philly, only averaging 3.6 YPC. On top of that he only saw 42% of the snaps, he'll see much more this season. He'll be facing a much more favorable schedule against the run (B), but his Oline is one of the worst in the league (but again last year playing behind one of the best in the league, didn't help his cause).

FYIWR Josh Gordon: Gordon, who is eligible to apply for reinstatement on August 1, met with Commissioner Goodell this week. The meeting is just the beginning of the process for Gordon, but it at least gives him and fantasy owners hope of seeing him on the field this season. Gordon has participated in just 2.5 seasons in the NFL, but he’s shown immense talent in that short stint. With a rookie (Corey Coleman) looking to be the number one receiver in Cleveland to start the season, the Browns could really use Gordon back with the team.

RB Arian Foster: Coming off a torn Achilles injury suffered last October, Foster signed with the Dolphins at the beginning of the week. Though he has been involved in 7 seasons in the NFL, Foster has played a full 16 games just twice because of injuries the other seasons. He joins a team that is thin at the running back position with second year man Jay Ajayi and rookie Kenyon Drake the top competitors. Ajayi was the top dog before the Foster signing and though it seems the it’ll still be his position to lose, Foster makes this a more ugly fantasy situation. Aside from being a tough rusher, the veteran can be of great use in the passing game as shown by his 22 receptions, 2 touchdowns and 57 receiving yards per game in just 4 games last season.

Player InjuryDL JJ Watt: Watt had back surgery (herniated disk) on Wednesday, which puts his availability for the start of the season in question. He’ll start training camp on the PUP list as a result. Projections and reports are all over the place regarding his availability (from 6-10 weeks), so we’ll have to wait until closer to the season to know a true timeline, but for now the Texans defense gets a major downgrade.

QB Mark Sanchez: Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak reportedly told the team that Mark Sanchez is their starting quarterback. This is apparently what he wants the team to have in their head for camp and as the preseason begins. The quarterback battle in Denver doesn’t appear to be over though as Trevor Siemian has gotten some early praise as well. Rookie Paxton Lynch is starting a ways behind the other two, but with plenty of time still before the regular season, anything could happen. Sanchez appears to be the top option to help Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have productive fantasy seasons.

FYIRB Karlos Williams: Williams, who scored 9 touchdowns last season as a rookie, has been suspended for the first four games after violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Prior to the suspension, Williams was held out of minicamp after he reported 20-25 pounds overweight. LeSean McCoy is firmly atop the running back depth chart heading into camp, but now that Williams is out of the picture, the second spot is open. Early on it appears that Mike Gillislee is next up should McCoy go down like he did at times last season. Williams will have to work his way out of the doghouse, but don’t count him out yet as he should be able to work his way back to the number two spot.

Player InjuryTE Jimmy Graham: Graham suffered a ruptured patellar tendon in November, but he is reportedly ahead of schedule in his recovery. Though there are doubts, the Seahawks are reporting that they expect Graham to be ready for week one. As far as fantasy owners are concerned, Graham is a risky option. Not only was he a disappointment in year one with Seattle, but also the injury he suffered is a major one that could have a lasting impact throughout the season (think Victor Cruz).

Player InjuryWR Jordy Nelson: Nelson is coming off a lost season following a torn ACL in the preseason last year. He is ahead of the game in his recovery and appears to be ready to roll as training camp approaches. The Packers will likely take it easy on him throughout the preseason, but Nelson should be considered a top talent once again as drafts begin.

FYIQB Ryan Fitzpatrick: The Jets and Fitzpatrick continue their stalemate as we approach training camp. While it seems everyone thinks the Jets are going to give in to get Fitzpatrick signed, we continue to wait. We should see something come up in the next week, but for now the Jets are working with Geno Smith as their top option behind center. Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker would be hurt the most in fantasy should Fitzpatrick not get signed.

QB Colin Kaepernick: After failing to make his way out of San Francisco in the offseason, Kaepernick may have to sit behind Blaine Gabbert to start the season. Gabbert appears to be the frontrunner early on as many people in the 49ers organization view him as a better fit. This could be a good competition through the preseason, but for not Kap is playing catch up.

FYIEzekiel Elliot: Reports surfaced on Friday claiming that Elliot had been accused of domestic abuse. The rookie denies the occurrence and has claimed he has proof against the claim. Witnesses to the suspected event also side with Elliott early on. The Cowboys and the NFL will take a close look at this one as it unfolds, as will fantasy owners since Elliott is set up to be a top five RB this season.

FYILe'veon Bell: Bell is facing a four game suspension to start the season after he failed the league’s substance abuse policy. Apparently Bell skipped a drug test or multiple tests, which the league views as admission of guilt, which looks to take the stud RB off the field for the beginning of the year. As he did to start last season, DeAngelo Williams would be the starter if this ends up being upheld. Williams was a beast in replacement of Bell last year and he would be a strong fill in again this season.

FYIRB Jeremy Langford: The Bears running back situation is going to be an important one to watch through the preseason as Langford and rookie Jordan Howard both have a shot at some major action in John Fox’s offense. While Langford played well as a rookie last season, Fox is known to enjoy the running back by committee approach as well as playing the hot hand. We may not get a clear answer on this one as we head into the season. Langford is the RB to own for now in Chicago.

Player InjuryRB Thomas Rawls: According to John Clayton at ESPN, Rawls is likely to only see action in one preseason game as he is coming off ankle surgery. With Marshawn Lynch retired, the Seahawks don’t want anything to happen to their lead back, which means we will see more of rookie C.J. Prosise, Christine Michael and rookie Alex Collins in the preseason. Collins has created some buzz already, while Prosise is situated to be the passing back. It’ll be important to monitor the progress of Rawls and the battle between the others in case Rawls is slowed to begin the season.

Player InjuryRB Jamal Charles: Early in the summer it was reported that Charles could be held out of the preseason as a precaution, coming off a season-ending injury last year. Though he is expected to be ready for the beginning of the season. The stud RB will be at high risk for a re-injury having had two knee surgeries in the past four years. Charcandrick West was the main back when Charles went down last season, but there’s already been talk that Spencer Ware could be the first one to have a shot should that happen this season. A superb rushing offense, Kansas City is going to provide a solid fantasy back this season, whether it is Charles for 16 games or a combination should he go down again.

FYIWR Steve Smith: Despite looking to be down and out and on his way to retirement following last season, Smith is working his way back for another year in Baltimore. He had an impressive start to the season last year, but suffered a back injury and then an Achilles tear that knocked him out for good. Though Kamar Aiken made some splashes last year and Mike Wallace has come to town, it appears Smith is the early favorite to be the top option in the passing game again this season as long as he can stay healthy. He needs just 39 receptions to hit the 1,000-reception mark for his career.
 


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Anthony A. Perri is the founder and the resident "Stats Nerd" at Fantistics.  Anthony has a graduate level Math education. His experience includes working as a  Quantitative Analyst for several Wall Street firms developing statistical models before venturing out into Fantasy Sports in the late 1990s. His decade long involvement in Fantasy Sports includes accolades from some of the top publications in the country as well as  continual guest appearances on Sports Radio (most recently ESPN and Sirius Radio.) Anthony is the designer of the Fantistics Projections Model & the VAM drafting strategy models.  

 

 
 

 

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