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Hi Folks, It's getting close
to that magical time of the year.
The camps are open: Are you ready
for some football?!?
Throughout the preseason we'll be discussing
Player Projection changes, Camp Developments,
Player Box Scores (preseason games), and Fantasy Strategy.
The goal is to express our rationale as we update our
player
projections software program with the most up to date player
intelligence. Stay Tuned!
-Anthony
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8/22/2016
Austin
Hooper - Atlanta Falcons, Round 3, 81st overall pick out of Stanford
NFL Outlook: Hooper scored a respectable
six touchdowns in 2015 before entering the NFL draft although his
career numbers don’t jump off the page. In two seasons he recorded
74 catches for 937 yards in 24 games and at 6’4” he is one of the
shortest tight ends entering the NFL this year although he is
athletic enough to overcome a few inches in height and is expected
to be a run blocker as well as a pass catcher meaning he can stay on
the field in any situation. He draws comparisons to another
Stanford tight end in Zach Ertz who is emerging as a starting tight
end in fantasy.
Dynasty Outlook: In a year or two Hooper
should be the clear cut starter in Atlanta and with the players he’s
been compared to he could easily be a starting fantasy tight end in
a couple of years. Hooper is the safest tight end in rookie drafts
after Henry Hunter and is a player worth stashing behind a solid
veteran as there is a good track record of Stanford tight ends doing
well in the NFL in recent years.
Re-Draft Outlook: Hooper may have the
clearest path to playing time in 2016 as only Jacob Tamme stands in
his way and Tamme isn’t a superstar by any means. Coming from
Stanford means Hooper is a smart guy and is apparently picking up
the offense well although he will be behind Julio Jones, Mohamed
Sanu, and Devonta Freeman in the passing pecking order even in the
best case scenario.
2016
Prediction per Software: 36 Receptions, 415 Yards, 5 TD
Fantistics James Adams takes a look at the
top Rookie Tight Ends in this year's draft in our
member section
today.
Lewis,Dion
- NE/RB: Lewis was previously thought to be recovering
nicely from a torn ACL he suffered in the middle of last season
but he suffered some type of setback that requires another
“cleanup” procedure on his left knee. Local media reports
speculate that he will be out 8-10 weeks which mean a late
season return. His draft value is nil at this point but will
increase greatly in PPR leagues during the last quarter of the
season.
Jones,Matt
- WAS/RB: Jones suffered a separated AC joint in his
shoulder during the Skins’ matchup with the NY Jets. This might
shelf Jones for the rest of the preseason which is a bummer
since the team is depending on him as its main RB. As a result
of his injury, Chris Thompson and Keith Marshall will get more
reps and possibly could be in the mix come the regular season if
Jones isn’t back to full health. If Jones recovers nicely he
remains a low end RB2/high end RB3 depending on what format you
are in.
Cruz,Victor
- NYG/WR: Cruz will return to practice Monday after battling
a groin injury suffered at the very beginning of training camp.
While not a full contact practice, the team will determine how
far Cruz’s rehab has gone and when he can actually return. A lot
of fantasy owners are staying completely away which makes sense
because of how the last year and a half has gone, and as a
result the stock of rookie Sterling Shepard has shot up. This
trend could continue depending on how Monday goes.
Langford,Jeremy
- CHI/RB: Langford was seen wearing a walking boot during
the Bears game against the Patriots but returned to practice
Sunday without wearing it. He had a strong game – rushing eight
times for 55 yards and one TD so he looks to be headed into the
season as a strong RB1 despite the presence of impressive rookie
Jordan Howard who also had a good game – rushing 11 times for 46
yards. The injury could have been a game changer (and a bad one
for Langford) but looks to be a nonissue after Sunday.
Davis,Mike
- SF/RB: After a superb preseason opener against Denver last
week, Davis was rising up the fantasy ladder and making a case
as an RB4/5 but his chances took a hit after a disastrous
Saturday game against Denver. He rushed five times for 26 years
but lose two fumbles – both big time drive killers. The Niners
actually fumbled five times in the game so expect some ball
security drills upcoming. DuJuan Harris rushed seven times for
46 yards and also looks strong but lost one fumble as well. One
RB will emerge as Carlos Hyde’s complement and despite his
travails, Davis still has the edge.
Conley,Chris
- KC/WR: The second year receiver starter led the Chiefs in
receiving Saturday night against Los Angeles as he caught three
passes for 66 yards. Conley logged some playing time late last
season as injuries decimated the Chiefs receiving core, and
looked okay despite how raw he was. He is 6’3” and runs a 4.3 x
40 so he could be beast if it all comes together. He is flying
way under the radar in the fantasy world but is third on KC’s
depth chart but more importantly Head Coach Andy Reid finally
figured out late last season that KC will not go anywhere
without throwing the ball down the field and not the horizontal
way because of Alex Smith’s questionable arm strength. Smith
looked better than most thought he would throwing the ball
deeper more regularly which bodes well for a burner like Conley.
McDonald,Vance
- SF/TE: McDonald’s stock is quickly rising following his
play in both of the Niners’ games this preseason. Against Denver
Saturday night he caught three passes for 38 yards on four
targets, once again showing the chemistry he has with the Niners’
most likely starting QB Blaine Gabbert. He would have had four
catches if the ball thrown by Gabbert wasn’t thrown so hard
which was too bad because it would have been a big gainer.
McDonald will be a strong TE2 but consider that he is injury
prone (has missed 11 games in three years).
Sanchez,Mark
- DEN/QB: Sanchez was the odds on favorite to win the
starting QB job in Denver but hurt those chances with his
performance Saturday night against San Francisco. He had two
inexcusable fumbles on three sacks which aided the Niners in a
preseason victory on the road. He did not complete a TD pass but
did throw 10 of 17 for 120 yards. Rookie Paxton Lynch looked
better than Sanchez and Trevor Siemian so who knows who will
line up under center come September.
Elliott,Ezekiel
- DAL/RB: Elliott’s hamstring appears to be getting better
as the team hopes for him to see some action against Seattle
this coming Thursday. The rookie has not seen any preseason
action thus far but is still being drafted extremely high in
dozens of leagues I have surveyed. The hype thus far has
resulted in him being a Top 5 pick in many of those leagues
which just blows my mind. I guess the thought is behind a
brilliant offensive line and his obviously potential, he will be
a rookie on the level of Eric Dickerson or Adrian Peterson. It
is possible but we should factor in proven veteran Alfred Morris
who could be designated goal line back and limit his output.
Reed,Jordan
- WAS/TE: The oft injured though talented TE did not play in
Washington’s game against the NY Jets because of a lingering
sprained thumb injury. Reed is being drafted as a TE1 which he
is but his average drafted position is lower than it should be
because of his injury history. He has missed seven games the
last two years because of injury but was also ineffective in
many others. With Kirk Cousins on fire late last year, Reed was
a fantasy star (11 total TDs) which is what his owners are
hoping for again.
Hilton,TY
- IND/WR: After tweaking his hamstring in the preseason
opener last week against Buffalo, Hilton was held out again
versus Baltimore this past Saturday. We all know the drills with
hamstrings – they only get better with rest. There is no need to
push Hilton until he feels comfortable enough to run on it
because an injury like this can linger indefinitely. Hilton was
drafted as a WR1 last year after a spectacular 2014 but his
stock fell (as did the entire Indy offense) with a poor 2015 and
is now being drafted as a W2 in most leagues.
Bridgewater,Teddy
- MIN/QB: The team finally confirmed over the weekend that
Bridgewater was held out of last Thursday’s game because of a
sore shoulder. He still hasn’t practiced throwing since but
should be soon as the team is just being overly cautious.
Bridgewater was a fantasy star on the rise at the beginning of
last season but he failed taking his game to the next level as
his 2nd year numbers were nearly identical to his rookie numbers
where he started four less games. He is being drafted as a low
end QB2 in larger league formats but the hope is Laquan
Treadwell will help him overcome his shoddy passing output.
Nelson,Jordy
- GB/WR: Nelson is working on getting his knee back to
playing shape but will most likely not participate in any
preseason games this year. The Packers are being especially
cautious considering he had a setback when training camp first
started but he is practicing with the offense on a daily basis.
Nelson’s injury last year caused the Packers explosiveness to
become nonexistent and has also caused his draft stock to tumble
this year. It is a gamble but if he comes back 100%, he will be
a steal because he is a legit WR1.
Green,Ladarius
- PIT/TE: The curious case of Ladarius Green hopefully
reached a conclusion this weekend when he confirmed to local
media that he remains on the Steelers’ PUP list because of his
ankle. He said he continues to rehab his ankle and dismissed
various reports that have speculated he is considering
retirement due to head issues (i.e. concussions). Before his
ankle issues came up, Green was considered a TE sleeper that had
the potential to be a low end TE1/high end TE2 in a Steelers
offense that has always been TE friendly near the goal line.
Now, his stock will continue to drop until he gets onto the
practice field and into a game soon.
Brown,John
- ARI/WR: Brown had been dealing with the after effects of a
concussion but was cleared to practice Sunday. The speedy
complement to Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd has been out of
commission since the start of training camp so this is great
news. Brown caught 65 passes for 1,003 yards and seven TDs last
year, and is expected to put up the same type of numbers in 2016
which would make him a superb WR3 in most formats and a
borderline WR2 in larger league formats. He has a great YPR
average because of his speed (career YPR average for 15.0) and
the great thing about Arizona’s offense is Head Coach Bruce
Arians is arguably the most aggressive playcaller in the league,
taking a few deep shots in each game is essentially a
requirement.
Notes prepared by Fantistics
Jasbir Singh
8/21/2016
Rookie WR
Will Fuller
is a name to know in this year's draft. Fuller got the start in
his second preseason game, and came through with 17 fantasy
points: 73 yards / 4 receptions/ 8 targets / 1 TD. He's about as
unheralded as any 1st round talent (18th round ADP), but
other fantasy owners will know his name before long.
WR Will Fuller Houston Texas (1st round/21st overall – Notre Dame)
College: Fuller declared for the NFL draft after his junior
year which would have seemed impossible to believe if you saw him
as a freshman that barely played – catching six passes for 160
yards and one TD. His fortunes changed following an aggressive
offseason approach prior to his sophomore year which opened the
eyes of the Notre Dame coaching staff. He ended up catching 76
passes for 1,094 yards and 15 TDs (amounting to an 84.2 YPR
average per game). He caught six or more passes on seven occasions
and scored at least one TD in all but two games. He actually
caught less passes and TDs during his junior season but his
receiving yardage and YPR average exploded – as he developed into
one of the NCAA’s most explosive burners. He caught 62 passes for
1,258 yards and 14 TDs (20.3 YPR!) and registered seven 100-yard
receiving games. Fuller scored 30 TDs during his time in South
Bend – second in Fighting Irish history behind current Arizona WR
Michael Floyd who totaled 37. Notre Dame never had the type of QB
that really took full advantage of what Fuller offered but a good
offensive scheme made Fuller look indefensible.
NFL Outlook: Fuller is going to a very nice situation where
he will be asked to help elite teammate DeAndre Hopkins avoid
double teams. After the Texans’ embarrassing playoff loss to
Kansas City, ownership made the decision to upgrade its QB, RB and
WR positions so that they will never be considered predictable
again. In comes strong armed former Bronco Brock Osweiler as QB
and underrated stud RB Lamar Miller – both of whom will keep
opposing defenses on their toes. In all likelihood, the Texans
will lean on Miller at first to get an idea of what Osweiler will
be best at. At some point he will let it rip and it will be at
that time Fuller could be a big time threat with so much attention
being paid to Hopkins and Miller. Now, Osweiler is unproven as a
big time starter, but look at the type of year Hopkins had last
year with a cavalcade of journeymen QBs such as Brian Hoyer, Ryan
Mallett and Brandon Weeden at the helm. If Hopkins can excel with
arms like this, he will not suffer any type of production drop off
and will continue to thrive. Fuller will have to battle veterans
such as Cecil Shorts and Jaelen Strong for playing time but he is
such a speed merchant, that shouldn’t be too difficult. A rookie
like Fuller will not get the respect reserved for a dynamic
veteran so he will see a lot of opportunities at the outset when
he is on the field. He will however have trouble, due to his
slender frame when it comes to crossing patterns so he will need
to prove his toughness early or defenses will have fun with him.
Fantasy Outlook: In dynasty leagues that I have surveyed,
Fuller was the second highest taken receiver in most leagues, most
likely because a lot of owners feel the big free agent
acquisitions on offense will result in a much more explosive
Texans offense. Fuller being drafted so highly also shows how
little faith owners have put in QBs such as RGIII and Teddy
Bridgewater. In standard non-keeper drafts, he will be drafted as
a fourth or fifth receiver which is about right. Despite all his
speed, negatives such as spotty hands and the veteran WRs in front
of him will slow down his development at first and could relegate
him to early bench time. A strong preseason could change that but
an NFL offense is hard to grasp, especially compared to a college
level offense that was tailored to the strengths of a backup
quarterback. The bottom line in regards to Fuller is he was
brought in to stretch the field and will do so, but the question
remains – when will it happen in an offensive scheme that will be
so different than last year? Current 18th round ADP, Fantistics
14th
Round Value.
Fantistics Jason Singh takes a look at the
top 10 Rookie Wide Receivers in this year's draft in our
member section
today.
In Saturday Night's action, Rookies that
played up include WR Will Fuller, WR
Tajae Sharpe, and QB Paxton Lynch. WR Tajae
Sharpe started the game for the Titans, and finished with
11.7 fantasy points, making good on all 6 targets from Mariota,
for a total of 68 receiving yards. The 5th round selection has
been the talk of Titans camp, and is now expected to open up as
a starter right out of the gate. We're moving up his
expectations in the draft software today. QB Paxton
Lynch looked a little methodical throwing the rock
yesterday, but he finished 15/26 113 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT.
He's still working his way up for now.
QB Jared Goff had a mixed evening going 8 for 12 for
82 yards and a TD, but he seems to be lacking some pocket
awareness as evidenced by his 2 sacks and 2 fumbles. He's also
still working his way up. The Bills surprising release of
Karlos Williams, elevates the value of LeSean McCoy.
With Karlos gone, McCoy owners can feel slightly more confident
in Red Zone situations.
Fantasy Football
Draft Day Dominance!
Last season, our software ranked
Devonta Freeman 6
rounds ahead of his ADP.
We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not
having a starting job.
Doug Martin - 4 rounds
ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead.
Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins
2+
rounds ahead of their ADP.
Tight End
Jordan Reed,
10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of
his ADP. These are just a few
examples of the many calls we made in 2015.
(click
here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+
year track record).
8/20/2016
Fantistics Sleeper WR #4 Marvin Jones | Detroit
Lions
Positives:
Jones joins a new team this season coming off a career year in
Cincinnati. He sat out the 2014 season because of injury and
returned to post 65 receptions for 816 yards and 4 touchdowns
playing opposite of A.J. Green. Now in Detroit in a possible
battle with Golden Tate for the number one role, Jones is primed
for a breakout. Early in the preseason, Jones has been
dominating practice, with reporters suggesting that he has taken
over as Matthew Stafford’s “favorite target.”
Negatives:
We still have a small sample size on Jones, who has only played in
two full seasons and part of one during his rookie season in 2012.
He had a career year last season, but still managed just mediocre
numbers for a fantasy star. With plenty of time before the
regular season, Jones will have to continue working to be a
consistent option for Stafford.
Final Say:
Jones is coming off the board near the end of the
10th round in 10-team leagues, good for close to 40th among
receivers. If buzz continues to build up from camp, this could
change, but Jones represents a strong value at this spot. The
Lions are facing a B+ schedule against the pass this season, and
with Megatron gone, Jones should step in to eat up plenty of the
open targets. Current 8th round (8.10) ADP, Fantistics 6th
Round Value.
Fantistics Jeremy McGoldrick takes a look at the
10 most
undervalued Wide Receivers in this year's draft in our
member section
today.
Fantasy Football
Draft Day Dominance!
Last season, our software ranked
Devonta Freeman 6
rounds ahead of his ADP.
We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not
having a starting job.
Doug Martin - 4 rounds
ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead.
Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins
2+
rounds ahead of their ADP.
Tight End
Jordan Reed,
10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of
his ADP. These are just a few
examples of the many calls we made in 2015.
(click
here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+
year track record).
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Fantasy Aces)
If you hadn’t
heard the name
Dak Prescott
before, you were properly introduced Friday night as he
wowed football fans.
The rookie put up what would have been a superb fantasy
line throwing for 199 yards and two touchdowns to go with 28
yards rushing and 2 more scores on the ground.
Tony Romo
stated the game and completed 4-of-5 passes for 49 yards,
finishing without any injury setbacks.
Though Prescott is starting the season in a bit of a bad
spot behind a star like Romo, he may end up being one of the top
two rookie quarterbacks this season.
Though he has proven to be quite tough, Romo is an injury
waiting to happen, and at 36 years old, the body can’t recover
as quickly.
Dynasty leaguers need to take note of Prescott’s early
success and draft accordingly as a wasted season behind Romo
this year could still mean a big role in the coming seasons.
The Dallas run game was also hot on Friday, but it wasn’t
Ezekiel Elliott or Darren McFadden, it was
Alfred Morris
who charged for 85 yards and a touchdown on just 13 touches.
He will start as the number two should McFadden be
hampered by his elbow early in the year...The Dolphins running
game had some success, but it didn’t come from its top ball
carriers as Jay
Ajayi rushed for just 19 yards on 6 carries and
Arian Foster
lost 5 yards on 2 touches.
The battle for the starting role will continue for these
two next week, but it’s possible we could be looking at a true
split come week 1.
Foster has the higher upside at the beginning, but Ajayi
likely holds the long term value with Foster’s injury risk
attached...Kenny
Stills caught 3 passes for 71 yards and 2 touchdowns Friday,
which should help solidify his number three role for Miami.
Jordan
Cameron managed just 1 catch on 2 targets, as he still
hasn’t shown us enough to warrant any hype.
Cameron is ranked as our 20th
best tight end, and although he should see an upswing this year,
he continues to be at best a TE2 option...In the biggest injury
news of the night, RB
Matt Jones went
out with a shoulder injury that later was defined as an AC
sprain.
The injury is expected to keep him out the rest of the
preseason, but coach Jay Gruden said that he doesn’t expect
Jones to miss much time.
Chris Thompson and UDFA Robert Kelley came in following
the departure of Jones, before
Keith Marshall
joined the party.
Thompson doesn’t seem to be a threat for main rushing
duties despite his 18 yards on 4 carries.
If Jones is forced to miss any regular season time, we
should see Kelley or Marshall take the main role.
Marshall has been underwhelming to say the least as he
carried 10 times for just 26 yards on Friday, but Kelley hasn’t
done anything better.
Marshall seems to be the handcuff to own for Jones, but
keep watching next week for a clearer picture...Bryce
Petty is working towards the backup role to Ryan Fitzpatrick
after having success Friday night.
He threw for a game high 242 yards and 2 touchdowns,
while his competition Geno Smith looked bad completing
6-of-13 passes for 47 yards and an interception.
Fitzpatrick is in no danger of losing his job this
season, but if goes down, I feel bad for Jets fans.
Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker both caught a pass in
limited action Friday, while the third option in the passing
game, Quincy Enunwa
was knocked out of the game with a concussion.
The third year receiver will enter the concussion
protocol.
Though he’s unheard of by many, Enunwa showed a few
bright spots last season and he could develop into a role this
year.
Outside of preseason action last night,
Le’Veon Bell
was the hot news of the day having his suspension cut from four
games to three.
This doesn’t do much to his value, which was already at
the back end of the first round, but it does drop DeAngelo
Williams a bit...In Philadelphia,
Kenjon Barner
is being predicted as the number two option behind Ryan Mathews.
This is far from a lock as rookie Wendell Smallwood, who
received praise early in the summer, has been out with injury
the past few weeks.
If Smallwood can return in the preseason, he and Barner
will battle it out for an important role behind a fragile back
in Mathews...Melvin Gordon showed us more of what we saw out of
him last year rushing for just 18 yards on 6 carries.
He did scamper for a 12 yard gain, but was stuffed
outside of that.
Travis
Benjamin made his San Diego debut, but he finished with just
one catch on four targets.
Benjamin will make strides once he’s playing with Phillip
Rivers who was not in on Friday.
Rookie TE
Hunter Henry
caught his lone target of the night for 7 yards.
Though rookie TE’s rarely pan out in fantasy, Henry could
step right in if Antonio Gates is limited this season.
Jeremy McGoldrick
Play in an Auction League,
check here
for Setup and Settings Recommendations.
Jones,Matt
- WAS/RB: Jones went down hard on his shoulder Friday night
and was taken to the locker room. Later we found out the injury
was an AC sprain, which will likely cost him at least the
remainder of the preseason and possibly some time to start the
regular season. While Jones could have enough time to recover for
week one, the injury has to be something to watch in case it could
lead to a chronic problem throughout the season. The Redskins are
pretty thin behind Jones with 4th year back Chris Thompson,
rookie Keith Marshall and UDFA Rob Kelley next in line.
Marshall is the top handcuff, though he has been underwhelming
throughout the preseason, including just 26 yards on 10 carries on
Friday.
Gordon,Melvin
- SD/RB: It’s a new year, but we saw the same results from
Gordon. Though he looked good on a 12-yard run Friday, he finished
with just 18 yards on 6 carries. The Chargers are committed to
getting him going though, so Gordon remains safe to draft on the
fact that is set to be the workhorse. We’re likely to see Gordon
make a decent improvement this season, but he still has plenty of
work to do.
Benjamin,Travis
- SD/WR: Benjamin had an uninteresting debut with the Chargers
catching just one pass for 11 yards. With Kellen Clemens starting
the game, Benjamin didn’t have much of a chance to make a mark.
Look for what he can do in the third preseason game, as Phillip
Rivers should be behind center. Benjamin is holding good value
still with an ADP in the 15th round.
Enunwa,Quincy
- NYJ/WR: Enunwa left the Friday night contest after suffering
a head injury. Though Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are the top
dogs in this passing game, Enunwa has a chance to carve out a role
and slip into fantasy relevance should Marshall or Decker be
sidelined. We learned last season that Ryan Fitzpatrick had plenty
of success passing in this offense, and that should continue this
season. It appears that Enunwa is dealing with a concussion, which
could limit his availability for the third preseason game. He’s
headed for the concussion protocol steps, but keep an eye on
Enunwa as a deep sleeper option once he’s back to full health.
Petty,Bryce
- NYJ/QB: Playing for a backup role to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Petty
easily outplayed Geno Smith Friday throwing for 242 yards and 2
touchdowns on 16-of-26 throwing. Rookie Christian Hackenberg did
not play in the game, so it seems as though either Smith or Petty
will be next in line. Fitzpatrick holds value as a QB2 this
season, but neither Petty nor Smith is going to be the answer
should the starter go down.
Sudfeld,Nate
- WAS/QB: Sudfeld completed just 50 percent of his passes on
his way to 77 yards and a touchdown toss Friday night. With Kirk
Cousins holding the starting role and Colt McCoy appearing well
ahead as the backup, Sudfeld will continue as a project this
season should he remain on the roster.
Doctson,
Josh - WAS/WR: Rookie Josh Doctson has received some hype
leading up to this season despite being injured, but don’t sleep
on Ryan Grant and Jamison Crowder in leagues that start a
lot of receivers. DeSean Jackson has had trouble staying on the
field and Pierre Garcon is entering his age 30 season, while
Doctson is having trouble shaking an injury. The receiving corps
is far from set in Washington this year, and while Grant and
Crowder are not worthy of a draft spot in most leagues, they could
start making a name for themselves this year. Crowder quietly
caught 59 passes for 604 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2015.
Foster,Arian
- MIA/RB: Foster made his preseason debut with Miami on Friday
and it was quite uneventful. He finished with two carries for -5
yards along with nothing in the passing game. Continuing in the
battle with Jay Ajayi, Foster finishing the game without an injury
is a huge success. While Foster is expected to win the starting
role in Miami, Ajayi is still set to receive the most work this
season as Foster hasn’t participated in a full season in four
years.
Ajayi,Jay
- MIA/RB: The second year back carried 6 times for 19 yards on
Friday night for a 3.2 yards per carry average. His competition
Arian Foster managed to lose 5 yards on his 2 carries on the
night. This battle is going to be confusing and might end up being
a close split to start the season, but because of Foster’s
fragility, Ajayi has a slight edge in the trust factor. The two
have closed their ADP gap and both are projected to go around the
10th or 11th round.
Stills,Kenny
- MIA/WR: Stills helped his cause on Friday night grabbing 3
passes for 71 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Cowboys. Though
rookies Leonte Carroo and Jakeem Grant are fighting to get into
the number three role, it appears as though Stills isn’t in danger
of losing that role. He’s a strong deep threat who should have
some decent games and a whole lot of stinkers this year.
Cameron,Jordan
- MIA/TE: Cameron has been getting a little talk of late with
Adam Gase coming to Miami this season, but he hasn’t been
impressing anyone on the field yet. Though Gase has shown success
with tight ends in his offenses, Cameron has a long ways to go
after catching just 35 passes last year. Cameron is a long shot to
be trustworthy this season and currently ranks as a TE2 at best
with some potential to surprise.
(Catch our Sirius XM
87/210 Fantistics show every Weekend from 10-1pm est! Call in and
mention that you're a Fantistics newsletter subscriber and get your questions
answered on air 888-963-2682)
Prescott,Dak
- DAL/QB: Prescott stole the night Friday by tossing for
199 yards and 2 touchdowns to go along with 28 yards rushing
and 2 more scores on the ground. He also managed to complete
12-of-15 passes while playing partially against the Dolphins
first team defense. Though we have to temper our excitement a
bit on the rookie, Prescott has showed us that he has the
ability to shine in the spotlight. Though he can’t be
considered in redraft leagues with Romo in there, keeper and
dynasty leagues need to take note of Prescott. Romo has a high
probability of going out at some point this season, so
Prescott could get an opportunity in 2016, and surely he could
be working towards taking over as the quarterback of the
future for Dallas.
Morris,Alfred
- DAL/RB: Morris shined on Friday rumbling for 85 yards
and a touchdown on 13 carries as the starter with Ezekiel
Elliott out. Though he is currently third on the depth chart
behind Elliott and McFadden, Morris has a great chance to move
into the backup role at least early in the season as McFadden
tries to recover from his elbow injury. The Cowboys offense is
likely to be able to sustain a second rusher this season for
fantasy purposes, but neither Morris nor McFadden warrants a
high pick with Elliott firmly entrenched as the go-to guy.
Bell,Le'Veon
- PIT/RB: Bell had his suspension reduced from four to
three games on Friday. Though you don’t want to be without a
top player on your team, Bell’s three game absence shouldn’t
sway your draft spot too much as he could still finish atop
the RB’s this season. His ADP is near the end of round one
behind David Johnson, Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley, but he
holds an edge in PPR leagues as he’s averaging over 4 catches
per game over his short career.
Ellington,Bruce
- SF/WR: Though he has just 19 catches over his two year
career, Ellington is getting a little preseason hype as we
enter the second weekend of preseason games. He was called a
standout during joint practices and called the most improved
as well before getting knocked out early this week with an
ankle injury. While he isn’t likely to play In Saturday’s
preseason game, keep an eye on the 49ers third preseason game
to see how he lines up. Torrey Smith is being labeled as a
sleeper pick by some, but he is coming off the worst season of
his career. While the offense is going to be different this
season in San Francisco, it appears that Ellington has a good
shot to break through over Smith at a much cheaper price.
Smith has an ADP in the 14th round, which could still be a
bargain, while Ellington is barely in the top 300.
Barner,Kenjon
- PHI/RB: According to CSN Philly’s Reuben Frank, it looks
pretty clear that the number two running back in Philadelphia
is going to be Kenjon Barner. Barner had just 124 yards
rushing on 28 carries last season, but he has played well in
the preseason with 12 carries for 66 yards and a score. With
rookie Wendell Smallwood out the past few weeks because of a
quad injury, Barner has stepped up. This is still a situation
that is unresolved as Smallwood could easily overtake the role
if he can get healthy. This is surely an important one to keep
an eye on though as Ryan Mathews is fragile and Darren Sproles
isn’t an every down back.
Marshall,Keith
- WAS/RB: The rookie followed up an ugly first preseason
game with just 26 yards on 10 carries Friday night. Starter
Matt Jones exited with a shoulder injury early in the contest,
but Marshall came in after Robert Kelley and Chris Thompson.
While the rookie has struggled, there is still a chance that
he would replace Jones long term if Jones went down in the
regular season or struggled to recover from this shoulder
injury. With Jones done for the preseason, keep an eye on the
battle between Marshall and Kelley in the third preseason
game, which could give us an answer as to who Washington views
as the next in line.
Notes prepared by Fantistics
Jeremy McGoldrick
8/19/2016
CIN
RB Jeremy Hill Although his Red Zone numbers were quite
encouraging with 12 total TDs (23% Red Zone success), his overall
yardage numbers were disappointing (223/794 yards 3.6 YPC). His
offensive line is considered above average (C+), and his schedule
is neutral for 2016. We expect that there will be a rebound in the
rushing totals, and his 7 QS from 2015, will climb closer to 8-9
in 2016. Fantistics believes there is a lot of value at his
current 5.04 ADP.
Trevor Siemian has been named the starter for the Broncos
for their second preseason game on Saturday but the team says that
he and Mark Sanchez are essentially going to share snaps
during the game. Both QBs played well in the team’s first game of
the season each averaging around 7.5 YPC but Sanchez threw the
lone touchdown, and the lone interception..... Eli Rogers
is becoming an interesting name out of Steelers camp as the team
is looking for their #3 and on receivers. Rogers caught all four
of his targets for 39 yards in the game. He received the same
amount of targets as Sammie Coates, who continues to under
whelm in the preseason games as he caught only two of his targets
and the other two were intercepted on balls that Coates could have
made more of an effort on it seemed.... Marvin Jones hauled
in four passes for 65 yards from Matt Stafford in the Lions second
preseason game. Jones is part of a crew of Lions’ wideouts that
are going to attempt to replace the production from Calvin
Johnson, and Jones looks like he’ll be at the top of the pecking
order at the position. Jones is coming off a season where he had
816 yards on 103 targets with four touchdowns , after notching 10
touchdowns the year before that. He’s got great chance to reach
double digit scores this year and he ranks at #30 on our
rankings.... Jeremy Hill was solid in his brief time on the
field rushing for 16 yards and a score on three carries. Hill
could make for a nice post hype sleeper as his draft stock last
year was one in the late 1st early 2nd round range and owners may
have soured on him after a down 2015. He only disappointed owners
because of where he went as he ran for 12 scores but only had 794
yards on the ground, well below the 1,124 he posted in his rookie
year. We have Hill ranked as our #14 back and right now is an
extreme value based on the ADP of players around him...... Tyler
Boyd is one of my favorite rookie receivers this year
based on his college production and the situation he falls into in
Cincinnati who needs to fill multiple WR roles. Boyd caught two of
three targets for 38 yards and a score in Thursday’s game. Boyd’s
touchdown was a redzone look where he worked the seam from the
slot, and he could find a home there with AJ Green on on the
outside and Tyler Eifert in the middle whenever he can get
healthy..... Terrelle Pryor showed some of his potential
Thursday, burning Falcons’ #1 corner Desmond Trufant down the
sideline to catch a bomb from Robert Griffin III for a 50 yard
score. Pryor has had a solid preseason so far and I’d expect that
we start seeing him sneaking into the back end of drafts in the
near future based on his upside. We know that he’ll get some looks
through the first four weeks with Josh Gordon being suspended, but
it remains to be seen whether he can be a target monster or if
he’ll be boom or bust like departed WR Travis Benjamin..... Mohammed
Sanu had a much better go around in his second game with the
Falcons, catching three of five targets for 45 yards including an
excellent catch and run for a 32 yard gain. The Falcons’ offense
as a whole played much much better than the first game of the
season with the first team players staying in the game for almost
all of the first quarter of the game. Sanu ranks right now as the
WR #42 but in this offense he can finish higher than that with
consistent targets..... If you’re drafting Thomas Rawls in
your leagues, you better keep Christine Michael in your
queue and snag him as a handcuff towards the end of your draft. It
seems like he received a crazy amount of hype last year in Dallas
only to get released and signed with Seattle. He’s having a great
preseason with another solid effort rushing for 55 yards on 10
carries in the first half of their game....Robert Griffin III
showed us flashes of the RGII of old completing 6-of-8 for 96
yards and a pair of scores while rushing for 36 yards on three
carries. Besides an excellent touch pass for a score to Gary
Barnidge down the sidelines, the best thing RGIII showed Thursday
was his ability to slide to avoid contact on one of his scrambles.
Staying healthy is going to be key for RGIII this year and sliding
is going to go a long way towards that..... If Dion Lewis
doesn’t get back to full strength right away, LeGarrette Blount
is showing that he can still be very useful to fantasy owners with
11 carries for 69 yards and one touchdown. Blount gets overlooked
in fantasy because he’s not by any means flashy and the emergence
of Lewis who fits the Patriots offense extremely well. He’s likely
the goal line back for the Patriots regardless of the role outside
of that, he still can have a baseline of production worth a
stash..... Jeremy Langford is getting the majority of the
touches as the first team back and was very productive Thursday
with 55 yards on eight carries and a touchdown. Langford played
well in Matt Forte’s absence and he should get the majority of the
work this fall. We have him pegged as he #25 back this season with
1,100 total yards and eight scores. He should be a focal point of
the offense and could be a nice value.... Eddie Lacy could
be a nice bounce back candidate as the new “thin” Lacy ran for 45
yards on 9 carries with a score. After being a first rounder last
year he’s going in the second-to-third round this year and could
end up being a fantastic value. We have him projected for 1,300
total yards and double digit touchdowns, which easily makes him a
RB1 in all formats.... Tom Brady was going to play in
Thursday’s game but cut his thumb on a pair of scissors prior to
the game. It’s unknown how serious he cut him thumb, but it
doesn’t sound like he’s should miss any additional time since he’s
already going to miss the first four weeks of the season because
of his suspension.... Julian Edelman didn’t play in
Thursday’s game as the team is being very cautious after he
re-aggravated his foot injury last week. Edelman is one of the
more valuable players on the Patriots offense along with Brady and
Gronk so they aren’t going to play him this preseason unless they
are 100% certain that he’s healthy in the game. Taking in the fact
he may not be healthy to start the season, we have him pegged as
the #32 WR in our rankings system with the potential to rise but
it all depends on his health.... The Niners GM said Thursday that
Colin Kaepernick is not ready to play in a game as he’s
still dealing with arm fatigue, and that he’s not sure when he’ll
be able to play. This is crappy news for fantasy owners as
everyone would rather see his potential upside behind center
rather than Blaine Gabbert. However, this could mean bigger
things for WR Bruce Ellington who is looked at to run in
the slot....
Josh Sperry
8/17/2016
SF RB Carlos Hyde
should see a nice boost in receptions in '16. Last year he only
caught 11 passes, despite a 74% reception rate…so off the bat we
should see an increase in Chip Kelly's offense. An offense that is
expected to be high volume. He's currently sporting a 52 ADP in
NFFC leagues (5th round) which makes him a tremendous buy, but
Yahoo and ESPN have him tighter with a 40 ADP, which should prove
to be a value as well. Ses more on Hyde at the bottom of this
email.
*Contained within the Fantistics Draft Software is the
ability to choose different ADP providers (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, NFBC,
MFL, MFL PPR, and blended). Other than the usefulness of using the
different ADPs to know what others are thinking, this also allows
us the ability to complete different mock drafts using different
ADP sources, giving you a different draft in each scenario. Click
on the Web update feature in the
Draft Advisory Software to download the latest ADPs today.
A
Look at ADP by Kyle Elfrink
The fear of embarrassment is a strong one. Whether that moment
takes place in front of total strangers or in front of life-long
friends, it’s a dreadful emotion you never truly overcome. And,
man … have you ever had to live down an embarrassing moment at
your fantasy football draft!? The assembled hyena’s won’t let it
die, will they?
Perhaps you tried to draft a player who has already been selected
(rounds ago!). Or, maybe you slowed the entire draft room to a
crawl because you weren’t prepped for that 9th round
selection. But, I think the biggest fear for many is that you
over jump on a player and draft him four or five rounds too
early. If you’re battling a collection of fantasy bluebloods,
you’ll know you’ve made a mistake within a second of saying the
name. Once one owner senses the overdraft and makes ‘the sound’
(a huff, a puff, a sneer, a chuckle, a simple word, etc.), you can
bet a crowd is soon to follow. Soon enough, there it is …
embarrassment.
Of course by spending time with this column you are making a
strong effort to avoid such a happenstance. So read freely and
read constantly! But, my main interest here is explaining that
you don’t have to live and die by what you read here or what your
ADP sheet says. In other words, not all ‘over-drafts’ are
mistakes.
If you draft a 5th rounder in the 1st round,
yes, you’re screwing up. But, if you draft the guy with an ADP of
14 at number-8 overall, that doesn’t mean you’re making a
mistake. And, later in the draft … drafting a usual 10th-rounder
in the 8th round is not a defined mistake. The further
you get out from the early rounds, the less you should be beholden
to the ADP marks you see here and around the web. The simplest
explanation is that we all have different needs once we reach the
latter half of any draft. Your pick in the 3rd round
can affect what you do in round 6 and beyond. A surprising run on
mid-tier RBs might force you to push your ‘next favorite’ at RB up
by 20-30 picks. Going in such a direction is not usually a
mistake. We may disagree on the player you feel is the guy to
take, but the overall idea of taking someone earlier than usual is
not something to fear.
The key is to do your homework on the player, his situation, your
team needs, your league roster requirements, and the current
options available at the time of your pick. If you answer those
questions and find a player who fits for you, that word –
embarrassment – shouldn’t be a part of your post-draft emotions.
The main thrust of this week’s ADP breakdown will center around
making sure you don’t embarrass yourself by buying hook, line, and
sinker on a few first-week preseason ‘stars.’ Some should be
drafted, others should not. Some might fit for you late, but you
need to be clear on what you’re actually investing in.
·
Who Are We Talking About?
When pre-ordained NFL starters don’t play or (thankfully) don’t
get injured in Week 1 of the preseason then we’re left searching
through the scrap heap of back-up’s who did show up with notable
numbers. That leads us to the likes of DeAndre Washington,
Michael Thomas, Dak Prescott, Jesse James,
and Jalen Strong.
·
Little Mount Washington
We’ll start with the presumed hand-cuff in Oakland. Washington
(51st at RB, 152nd overall) is a rookie from
Texas Tech who stands just 5’8” and clocks in under-200 pounds.
This past weekend he turned eight carries into 43 yards and also
added a 32-yard catch-and-run. He’s backing up a lead man in
Latavius Murray (19th at RB, 60th
overall) who few seem to be fired up about in 2016. For many,
Murray was an unexciting, plodder who only earned his work last
year because the Raiders had a paucity of options. Washington is
a different sort of runner who is known to do some damage in the
passing game. I could see 30-40 catches, but even if Murray comes
up with an injury, I wouldn’t be amped about Washington moving
into a full-time role. Frankly, as a small-sized rookie, I just
don’t think he’d be ready for it. I think the Raiders would make
certain to use a committee approach if Murray had to sit out for
any amount of time. In essence, Washington is tempting, but I
don’t see major upside in ’16.
·
Talent, Opportunity, Offense … Not So Fast
If you have drafted since late last week, you’ve probably seen
Michael Thomas (53rd at WR, 146th
overall) going much higher than his current ADP. Expect that to
continue. He was the lone Saints regular working out wide for a
good portion of game 1 and he answered with a solid 4-catch,
63-yard showing. That appears to have been enough to awaken the
assembled masses to the fact that he will be playing with Drew
Brees this year. I’ve liked Thomas since draft day, but if he
posts any kind of notable preseason effort, he will eventually get
too expensive. He’s mostly a ‘snap-and-fly’ guy who will be
featured as the deep option in New Orleans. Also, remember that
you have a load of mouths to feed in that Saints’ offense. If you
could still get him as 45th or lower WR, I’d be fine
with it, but I feel that by late-August the rookie will be heading
into the top-35 for some silly owners.
·
America’s Dream
The write-up on Dallas QB, Dak Prescott (53rd at
QB, 392nd overall) is short and sweet. Despite what he
did versus the Rams, it doesn’t matter. He’s a back-up QB in the
NFL. There’s no way you can draft him outside of a dynasty
set-up. Tony Romo’s ability to suit up for 16 games is a
true concern, but if/when he goes down, Prescott shouldn’t excite
you beyond the most desperate of owners in 2-QB leagues.
·
Why Settle for Steal When You Can Rob the Whole Bank?
Much the same can be said about Pittsburgh tight end (not historic
American outlaw) Jesse James (50th at TE, 363rd
overall). He’s starting to get some pub because of the on-going
issues with Ladarius Green (11th at TE, 110th
overall). Green has yet to practice this year and rumblings
suggest that ceaseless headaches (of the post-concussion variety)
are the reason way. Pittsburgh has publically disputed this (they
claim it’s a sore ankle), but smart fantasy players should want no
part of Green. I wouldn’t even have him on my board. And, that
leads us to James. He’s the next guy up in an offense that likes
to throw the ball and it’s also an offense that has made ready use
of the tight end spot for close to a decade now. Still, we know
nothing about James. If he were close to a top-12 tight end, the
Steelers wouldn’t have forked over so much money to add Green.
James may be a quote-unquote sleeper, but his position does not
allow you to draft sleepers. It’s rare, that in a typical league,
I would ever suggest you even draft a back-up tight end. You
should be drafting back-up runners and receivers, instead. James
is someone who should not be drafted. He should be on your watch
list … especially if you wait at the tight end spot and select a
guy outside the top-10. If your guy isn’t working out, that’s
when you begin to turn to the lower-end, unproven possibilities
like James.
·
The Strong Could Survive
There’s no dispute who the top dog is in the Houston passing
game. DeAndre Hopkins will get more than 175 of Brock
Osweiler’s expected 550 pass attempts this year. That’s a
legitimately huge total, but it still leaves 375 or more passes
for other Texans. Granted, Lamar Miller should see his
fair share, but how about the receiver on the flip-side of
Hopkins? Well, first, we have to find out who that man is.
Strong (88th at WR, 293rd overall) made the
most immediate impression the other night against San Francisco.
After running with the first-team most of camp, he actually came
off the bench and settled in for 42 yards on four catches. He’s
battling a pair of touted rookies in Will Fuller (69th
at WR, 202nd overall) and Braxton Miller (107th
at WR, 332nd overall). Fuller is definitely the man
that Houston wants to win the job, but he is a rookie and he could
be on a steep learning curve early. I think that Strong is due
some opportunities, regardless. He did little last year (14
catches, 161 yards, and three scores), but that was when both
Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts were in his way.
Washington is gone and Shorts is still an immense injury risk.
Keep an eye on Strong for the remainder of August. I could see
lifting him up to the level of being a WR6 if playing time starts
to fall in his direction.
Elsewhere …
·
That Was Quick
The Tennessee Titans took a major risk when they made Dorial
Green-Beckham (45th at WR, 107th
overall) the 40th overall pick of the 2015 draft. He
had bounced between a pair of schools, been caught with drugs
twice, and had not played a competitive football game in over a
year. His first go-around was not awful (32 receptions, 542
yards, and four TDs), but whispers indicated he wasn’t very
motivated to excellence. Those low-volume concerns continued in
the summer and into camp. Those murmurs turned into a
full-fledged scream on Tuesday when the Titans threw in the towel
and sent DGB to Philly for a run-of-the-mill lineman.
Beckham has the physical skills to succeed (6’5”, 225 lbs., good
speed, and leaping ability), but a lot of guys have that in the
NFL. If you can’t take the god-given and apply your own work …
forget about it. Perhaps this will be the wake-up for
Green-Beckham. He’ll run second-fiddle to Jordan Matthews
(oh, and scratch Nelson Agholor – 63rd at WR,
179th overall – off your sleeper list) and will get to
make good on the proverbial ‘second chance.’ He’s still talented
enough and intriguing enough to select in the top-60 among wide
outs, but he could very quickly be one of your first drops if it’s
not happening by Week 3. He had full run of the Tennessee
receiving corps and managed to do very little with it. In Philly,
his path to stardom is not as simple. It will come down to him.
None of us know what he’ll do, but as is so often the case, you
have to draft on the talent and opportunity. Green-Beckham
deserves the benefit of the doubt for at least one more year.
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on ‘The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive’
from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
Fantasy Football
Draft Day Dominance!
Last season, our software ranked
Devonta Freeman 6
rounds ahead of his ADP.
We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not
having a starting job.
Doug Martin - 4 rounds
ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead.
Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins
2+
rounds ahead of their ADP.
Tight End
Jordan Reed,
10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of
his ADP. These are just a few
examples of the many calls we made in 2015.
(click
here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+
year track record).
Fantistics @MichaelWaldo takes a look at the 5 most
undervalued Runningbacks in this year's draft in our
member section
today.
Carlos Hyde
(Current Blended ADP: 4th round)
Positives:
Of all the players on this list, Carlos Hyde has the highest ADP,
but he's also the one that's probably getting the most criminally
undervalued. A former second-round pick from Ohio State, Carlos
Hyde remains one of the most talented runners yet to break out in an
NFL uniform. After spending two seasons stuck in an unproductive
and inefficient San Francisco offense, it looks like Hyde will
finally get the opportunity to play in a scheme that fits to his
strengths. Chip Kelly comes to town with a promise to implement his
high intensity, high volume offensive strategy in the Bay. Carlos
Hyde has already gone on record saying that he buys into his coach's
system and his coach has already hinted that Hyde is a perfect fit
for it. The third-year back has both power and speed and his
disappointing 2015 is not unlike the disappointing 2012 that LeSean
McCoy endured through before his breakout-Chip Kelly year in 2013.
Now, I'm not saying Carlos Hyde and LeSean McCoy are the same
player, but they're certainly made from the same mold, with the
exception that Hyde might actually have a little more upside due to
his extra agility and quickness. There are other names in this
backfield, but there's not a single back that seems like an imminent
threat to Hyde while he's on the field.
Negatives:
Injuries have been the story of Hyde's career for the last 2
seasons. His physical style of play helps make him be a successful
running back, but it comes at the expense of his health. Through
his first 32 games as a professional. Hyde has only been active for
21 of them. Even if he does manage to stay on the field the entire
season, that's not the only obstacle that he faces. The 49ers
offensive line ranks among the worst in the NFL in terms of
run-blocking and he faces an upcoming schedule that projects to be
one of the toughest at defending against the run. Hyde will have to
make his impact through the air, but through his first 2 seasons, he
only has 23 total receptions despite a strong 74% completion rate.
Final Say:
Look for the biggest year-over-year change in Carlos Hyde's value to
occur in PPR leagues where the running back should see a huge boost
in projected targets in Chip Kelly's offense. If he can remain
healthy, there's a legitimate chance that Hyde transforms into one
of the only remaining all-around backs that we'll have in fantasy
football. That would give him substantial value and set him apart
in fantasy leagues in so many different ways. First round upside is
not out of the question for Hyde and he certainly has a clear path
to it. More touches for one of the league’s most talented runners
is never something that should be overlooked, so take advantage of
his “never done it before” discount and buy him before he becomes
priced like an elite option next year. All he has to do is stay
healthy.
8/16/2016
TE Martellus Bennett There is
talk of New England going to a two-TE formation more frequently
with the arrival of Martellus Bennett this offseason. The
Patriots have seen plenty of success with tight ends not named
Rob Gronkowski in recent years. Even when you take away Gronk’s
gaudy numbers there have been 32 other TE touchdowns in New
England over the last six seasons. Bennett was fantasy factor
during some of his stretches in Chicago, including two seasons
ago when he pulled in 90 receptions and scored six times. He
could have low-end TE1 value by time the dust settles in 2016
and an even bigger impact should Gronkowski go down with an
injury.
Let the hype train start rolling again;
there has been an Ezekiel Elliott (hamstring) sighting at
practice in Dallas. The rookie runner took part in Monday’s
walk-though practice. The Cowboys are also seeing progress with
injured running backs Darren McFadden (elbow) and
Lance Dunbar (knee). Both were participating in
non-contract drills and on the side at Cowboys’ practice Monday...
Rob Gronkowski “left practice after pulling up while
attempting to catch a Tom Brady pass to the sideline in a 7-on-7
drill” per ESPN.com’s Mike Reiss. He walked off the
field, but there has been no further update...Cleveland enjoyed
getting wide receivers Corey Coleman (hamstring) and
Josh Gordon (suspension) back practicing on Monday. Coleman
appears to be poised for a big role out of the gate, but Gordon
isn’t eligible to return until Week 5... Ronnie Hillman is
squarely on the roster bubble right now in Denver with head
coach Gary Kubiak admitting as much during his Monday press
conference. “Ronnie is in a battle, a helluva battle...there’s no
way around that.”...No news is bad news for Pittsburgh tight end
Ladarius Green (ankle, headaches). Head coach Mike Tomlin
offered “no clarity” on Monday, per ESPN.com...San
Francisco backup quarterback Thad Lewis sustained an ACL
injury during Sunday night’s preseason opener...Broncos’ starting
DE Vance Walker suffered a torn ACL during Monday’s
practice and will be out for the season.
Dan Clasgens.
Sammy Watkins
Buffalo wide receiver Sammy Watkins was huge
down the stretch for fantasy owners a year ago. In his final five games
he averaged 100 yards and hauled in seven touchdowns. The two problems
are durability and the limitations playing in Buffalo’s offense present.
He missed time last season with calf and ankle issues and is coming off
of off-season surgery for a broken foot. Playing in the Bill’s run-first
attack, Watkins will also struggle to get to 90 catches. While he is
capable of scoring every time he touches the football, the 23-year old
wideout will be better off as your WR2.
Mike Gillislee
With Karlos Williams suspended for four games
and in the doghouse in Buffalo, Mike Gillislee is making the most of his
opportunities while manning the second spot on the Bills’ depth chart at
running back. He tallied 25 yards on three carries in Saturday’s
exhibition versus the Colts. Miami gave up on him, but Gillislee had TD
plays of 19-, 50- and 60-yard runs in his first four contests after
signing as free agent. At least for the first month of the year, he
could carry some value playing behind the oft-injured LeSean McCoy.
Dion Lewis
Dion Lewis (knee) remains on the Patriots’ PUP
list, but several of the team’s beat writers have conveyed that it is
more of a precaution and that there have not been any setbacks with his
injury. It would still be nice to see Lewis get on the field before
locking him in as a RB2 in PPR leagues. Lewis put up top-10 production
at the position during his seven outings a year ago, tallying 89 total
yards per game with four touchdowns. New England is always mum on their
injuries, but the fact the team didn’t draft a running back or go after
the position hard in free agency shows they have some confidence in his
recovery.
Ryan Tannehill
Few quarterbacks in fantasy disappointed as bad
as Ryan Tannehill did last season. There is some optimism that Adam Gase
arriving to Miami as the head coach will breathe some life into the
Dolphins’ signal caller, but buyer beware if you’re considering taken a
flyer on him in 2016. Tannehill has averaged 254 passing yards per game
and 25 touchdowns over the past three seasons. He’s terrible on deep
balls, holds on to the ball too long, and has taken a league-high 149
over the past three years. There’s talent around him in Miami and that
will help, but there are more high-upside options for a QB2 at his
current 14.08 ADP.
Jordan Cameron
One player primed for a bounce back in Miami
could be tight end Jordan Cameron. Let’s not forget it was just a few
years ago (2013) when he had a 80 catches and scored seven times for a
very bad Browns’ team. Adam Gase’s arrival to South Beach could be just
what the doctor ordered for the veteran. Bears tight ends last year in
Gase’s system caught 91 passes, which is 33 more than Miami tight ends.
Let’s not get too carried away, but don’t be surprised to see Cameron’s
name a lot of early-season waiver wire articles around the web.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Ryan Fitzpatrick takes a ton of heat for some
ill-advised throws and untimely interceptions, but his gun-slinger
approach that gives him fantasy appeal. Jets’ offensive coordinator Chan
Gailey has a long-track record with Fitz and his offenses are generally
pretty efficient in the red zone. Only three quarterbacks in the league
have been getting the ball into the endzone in goal-line situations over
the last three years than Fitzpatrick. With all the weapons around him
this year, this easily the most talented offense he’s ever been in. He’s
great option for owners that punt quarterback to turn to in the
double-digit rounds.
Eric Decker
With Brandon Marshall on the field, Eric Decker
sees a ton of single coverage and there are few better WR2’s in the
NFL. Decker was tied for the league-lead last year with 17 targets
inside the 10-yard line. He pulled in 10 catches, including eight of
them for touchdowns, from that range. He’s not coming at the great
discount he did a year ago with 5.02 ADP right now. However, he’s a safe
bet for production at that spot.
Latavius Murray
Latavius Murray finished as a top fantasy
running back a year ago, but he only had six quality starts. The final
numbers didn’t look bad, but there were times when he just disappeared.
He only mustered 3.3 YPC during the second half of the season last year.
Still, he deserves a look as a RB2 based off the fact he gets volume.
He 307 touches last year, including 266 rushing attempts (3rd
in NFL). On Monday, head coach Jack Del Rio hinted at reporters that one
of the team’s goals was for Murray to finish with even more touches than
he did last yaer.
C.J. Prosise
Seahawks’ rookie running back C.J. Prosise
(hamstring) was a limited participant in practice on Monday, but it was
definitely progress. He missed time already in the offseason due to a
hip injury and now he’s fallen behind and the backfield is very crowded
in Seattle. The goal is for him to develop into the third-down,
receiving back role there but a big part of that for a rookie in picking
up pass protection and missing this much time in camp is problematic. He
needs to show some flashes in the next couple weeks before owners should
jump fully onboard.
Thomas Rawls
With the surging Christine Michael continuing to
draw raves at camp, it was a key step for Thomas Rawls (ankle) to return
to team drills on Monday. Rawls is still the front-runner to be the
team’s lead back and certainly possesses some Marshawn Lynch-type
qualities. Still, his sample size is small and with so many mouths to
feed behind him it is critical for his long-term role to build a little
bit of cushion to start the season. For now, he should still be
considered a high-end RB2 with nice touchdown upside.
Jeff Janis
Green Bay wide receiver Jeff Janis (hand) will
miss 4-6 weeks following surgery on Monday to repair broken bones in his
right index finger. He has some decent fantasy appeal during the
offseason and a decent display in relief last year, but his chances of
earning a significant offensive role have faded. Davante Adams somehow
appears he’s going to keep his grip on the No. 3 WR job for the Packers.
Wendell Smallwood
While beat writer Jeff McClane if the
Philadelphia Inquirer & Daily News does consider rookie running back
Wendell Smallwood “virtually guaranteed” to make the 53-man roster he
concedes that he'll have to improve his blocking to beat out Kenjon Barner for the RB3 job in
Philly. Like all rookies, picking up pass protection quickly will
determine how big of splash he could make as a rookie.
Jesse James
With the speculation swirling around the health
of tight end Ladarius Green, fantasy owners need to keep a close eye on
Jesse James. Wit Heath Miller retiring, there is a void in that
offense. “Ever since Heath retired, it has been a role that I have
expected to be able to handle and take,” James said. If Green misses
time or even worse, retires due to his alleged concussions, James would
quickly emerge as a solid TE2. He might already be one that is flying
far under the radar.
Today's Fantistics Notes brought to us by
Dan Clasgens
8/15/2016
Evans,Mike - TB/WR:
Evans had a decent year in 2015 as he caught 74 passes for 1,206
yards but only nabbed three TDs after scoring 12 in 2014! He was
targeted 100+ times but only caught half of the balls thrown to
him which ranked him near the bottom of the league. He decided to
lose weight this offseason and is down about 15 lbs. which he says
makes him feel faster and in better shape. There is no doubt Evans
will get his 100+ targets but we think the now svelte Evans will
heavily increase his scoring touches and put him more in line with
his rookie year numbers.
The Houston Texans buried the SF 49ers
Sunday night by a score of 24-13 in both teams’ first preseason
game of the exhibition season. The red and gold actually
dominated the first half with its first stringers which is a big
positive as the unsettled QB situation is still festering in the
city by the Bay. Blaine Gabbert got the start by default
as Colin Kaepernick was deemed inactive because of a sore
throwing arm. Kaepernick has had three surgeries this year and
was just cleared to practice without limits just two weeks ago,
so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he is experiencing some
tendinitis like symptoms to his throwing arm. Interestingly
however, a significant portion of the 49ers fanbase believes the
whole Chip Kelly concept of an open competition between
the two QBs to be a sham and that Gabbert already has the inside
track. If that is true, Gabbert did not overly impress as he
was terribly inaccurate on the easiest of throws early on.
Eventually, he did connect with TE Vance McDonald on a
43-yard TD that was impressive but finished the game (he played
a quarter and change) throwing 4 of 10 for 63 yards, one TD and
rushed three times for 18 yards. If Gabbert indeed wins the
job, even though he is in a QB friendly offense, he is no better
than a QB2 in some league formats and a QB3 in others.
Inaccuracy has plagued him his whole career and it is sad to say
there isn’t a lot of receiving talent in SF to help Gabbert
change that. On the plus side, he is capable of rushing the
ball due to his athleticism so that does increase his fantasy
value slightly. Carlos Hyde rushed five times for 27
yards in limited duty but was outshined by second year RB
Mike Davis who has slimmed down this offseason and may excel
as Hyde’s backup this year. Davis rushed five times for 72
yards and caught two passes for 17 yards. As much hype as Kelly
gets for the passing style he coaches, in his first year with
the Eagles, they led the league in rushing so that bodes well
for Hyde and his top backup fantasy wise which looks to be Davis
at this point. SF TE Vance McDonald – who caught two
passes for 54 yards and one TD – may be an underrated TE2 play
this coming year because we know how much Kelly likes to use TEs,
but do consider McDonald’s injury history and his spotty hands.
Houston QB Brock Osweiler had a flat debut as he
overthrew some passes and ended about a quarter of action
throwing 4 of 7 for 27 yards, zero TDs and INTs. Osweiler will
be a work in progress and is best drafted as a QB2 in most
league formats. On the other hand, RB Lamar Miller – who
I wouldn’t be against drafting as a RB1 in certain league
formats – looked great in brief action as he rushed for 30 yards
on four carries. Rookie WR Will Fuller
only caught one pass for four yards and was outshined by
second year WR Jaelen Strong who caught four passes for
42 yards – possibly solidifying the starting WR spot alongside
DeAndre Hopkins. Whoever ends up starting with Hopkins
should be worth a shot as a WR4/5 in most league formats.
Jasbir Singh
Other rookie observations:
The Texans' 4th rounder, RB Tyler Ervin,
had a very tough go of it Sunday Night, only gaining 1 yard
on 4 carries. Included in performance was a fumble....not
good. Lamar Miller
continues to look safe for 230-250 carries. As Jasbir
mentions above, 1st round pick WR Will
Fuller only saw 1 target, but 3rd round selection
WR Braxton Miller saw 6
targets, catching 4 of them for 34 yards. There currently is
an open competition for all receiving slots outside the one
occupied by DeAndre Hopkins. The 49ers' 6th round
RB Kelvin Taylor gained 4
yards on 2 carries, and caught 1 out of his 2 targets, no
threat to Carlos Hyde noted. On to week 2!
-Anthony
A. Perri
Hilton,TY
- IND/WR: Hilton tweaked his hamstring early against Buffalo
in preseason action Saturday and did not return. There is no word
on how serious it is but keep an eye on him because we all know
how hamstring injuries can linger. Hilton is looking to rebound
from a subpar 2015 (by his standards) and has a good chance to do
so with a healthy Andrew Luck back in tow.
Kaepernick,Colin
- SF/QB: Kap was a scratch from Sunday night’s preseason
opener at home against the Houston Texans due to arm/shoulder
fatigue. Now, before you start laughing, remember that Kap has had
three surgeries this year and only recently was cleared for full
practice. Tendinitis is expected and there is no need to push him
when rest is the only thing that will rectify the situation. The
conspiracy theorists have long insisted that both SF ownership and
the coaching staff want Blaine Gabbert to be the starter and the
whole competition deal in the preseason is really a farce. This
deactivation has only fueled those thoughts but I say Kap’s injury
is legit and he should be back next week. Now if his fatigue is
still a problem next week, then.......
Higbee,Tyler
- STL/TE: There is some buzz coming out of LA after Saturday’s
game against Dallas which saw rookie TE Tyler Higbee from Western
Kentucky catch five passes for 49 yards on six targets. He has
already impressed in camp and looks to be a big part of the
offense the Rams are putting around Jared Goff. Technically, Lance
Kendricks (yawn) is the starting TE, but if Higbee continues to
turn heads, he will nab that starting position. The Rams
unfortunately have a wretched group of WRs so the TEs will play a
significant role on offense this season.
Pryor,Terrelle
- CLE/WR: The former quarterback looks to finally have his
first legit opportunity to be an NFL wide receiver after spending
the last year or two making the transition from gunslinger.
Cleveland’s roster is so barebones right now, Pryor will be given
every chance to make the team, especially with Josh Gordon out for
the first four games this year. Most onlookers envision Gordon,
Corey Coleman and Pryor as the three top WRs, especially after a
nice preseason debut for Pryor against Green Bay – catching two
passes for 57 yards – including one 49 yard bomb. Keep an eye on
Pryor this preseason as he could be reserve material in larger
league formats.
Green,Ladarius
- PIT/TE: There are mixed signals coming out of Pittsburgh
regarding the health of Green who is listed as having both an
ankle injury and concussion symptoms (headaches). He is on the PUP
list and head coach Mike Tomlin insists that it’s Green’s ankle
that is keeping him out, not headaches. NBC reports that the tight
end is in concussion protocol and Green is contemplating
retirement because of the ill effects. Whatever the correct story
is, Green was expected to pick up the slack left by former TE
Heath Miller who has retired. Green now may never even start one
game for Pittsburgh which will leave the team in a lurch given the
spotty depth behind him (David Johnson and Jesse James? UGH).
Zenner,Zach
- DET/RB: The burly Zenner has reportedly overtaken Stevan
Ridley (my how time flies when you consider Ridley used to be a
stud fantasy back for the NE Pats not too long ago) as the power
back in Detroit’s offense. The speedy Ameer Abdullah appears to be
the starting back and Zenner will play the role Joique Bell played
in recent years – getting those tough yards and racking up goal
line attempts. While Bell never gained a lot of yardage, he scored
a lot which is what could be in store for Zenner this year. If he
is permanently named as the complement to Abdullah, Zenner should
have a reserve role in league formats with extended benches.
Doctson,Josh
- WAS/WR: Reports out of Washington DC say that the rookie
receiver from TCU will return from his Achilles injury in one or
two weeks, which is ironically the same timeline given when he
originally hurt himself a few weeks ago (oh well). Anyways,
Doctson is losing out on valuable practice time and might be
behind the proverbial eight ball when the season comes closer. The
Skins have nice depth at WR so Doctson will be fighting for
playing time when he is ready to play.
Lockett,Tyler
- SEA/WR: Lockett had a quiet first preseason game of the year
as he caught just one pass for 11 yards against Kansas City but he
will have a much better regular season. Drafted primarily for his
return skills, he surprised even those in the Seattle organization
with his ability to adapt to the NFL receiving game last year. He
excelled in three WR sets and ended the season with 664 yards and
six TDs, and will improve on both totals this coming year. With a
running game that will be less effective as it was when Marshawn
Lynch was running rampant, Russell Wilson will be asked to throw a
lot like he did last year. With Wilson’s ability to improvise and
throw the deep ball, Lockett is almost impossible to cover for an
extended amount of time.
Coates,Sammie
- PIT/WR: The second year receiver from Auburn is expected to
play a big role in Pittsburgh due to the yearlong suspension of
Martavis Bryant. Markus Wheaton (size) and Darrius Heyward-Bey
(inconsistent hands) are better used as reserves while Coates
looks to have everything a starter in the NFL needs in terms of
size and speed. One problem though that reared its ugly head
during Pitt’s first preseason game against Detroit was ball
security as he caught three balls and fumbled twice. After the
game he said he was careless and was trying to do too much. He
better get it straightened out because the Steelers have limited
options and Coates is really expected to do strong things.
Evans,Mike
- TB/WR: Evans had a decent year in 2015 as he caught 74
passes for 1,206 yards but only nabbed three TDs after scoring 12
in 2014! He was targeted 100+ times but only caught half of the
balls thrown to him which ranked him near the bottom of the
league. He decided to lose weight this offseason and is down about
15 lbs. which he says makes him feel faster and in better shape.
There is no doubt Evans will get his 100+ targets but we think the
now svelte Evans will heavily increase his scoring touches and put
him more in line with his rookie year numbers.
Sharpe,Tajae
- TEN/WR: Sharpe has gotten some ink as a possible surprise
starter in Tennessee based on having a strong camp but was
unfortunately knocked out early in Saturday’s game against San
Diego with a possible concussion. It was confirmed Sunday that he
was not concussed and will not have to enter concussion protocol
which is actually great news not just in terms of his health but
in terms of his progress. The rookie from UMass is actually ahead
of veteran Kendall Wright on the depth chart which tells you how
much the team thinks of this surprisingly smooth route runner.
Forte,Matt
- NYJ/RB: Forte is still struggling with a hamstring issue and
is considered day to day by the Jets. Most of those close to the
team believe the Jets are just being overprotective which is smart
at this point of the preseason, but we have to consider Forte’s
age (30) and dubious injury history. I personally know of owners
who thought highly of Forte coming into this season but since this
hamstring issue has come up, are now considering bypassing him
altogether.
Booker,Devontae
- DEN/RB: Booker got some work with the first team unit
against Chicago late last week and continues to get reps in
practice. CJ Anderson is the unquestioned starter for Denver after
receiving a big contract in the offseason, but Booker may make his
presence known sooner than later. Ronnie Hillman returned on a one
year contract but is more of a third down back due to his speedy
running style. Booker excels at the zone blocking scheme and is
someone to consider for reserve/handcuff duty in larger league
formats if he keeps getting more and more reps.
Gordon,Josh
- CLE/WR: Gordon returned to Browns practice Sunday – the
first time he has practiced with the team since he was suspended
for substance abuse issues almost two years ago. He did report out
of shape as he aggravated a quad muscle during a personal workout
but since he will be suspended for the first four games of the
season, the team is in no immediate hurry to work him back into
game shape. Although it is hard to visualize, if RGIII does manage
to regain his starting QB touch behind a sketchy Brown offensive
line, Gordon will be a fantasy force this year.
Cruz,Victor
- NYG/WR: Cruz is still not over the injury woes that have
plagued him the last few years. It started with the gruesome knee
injury in 2014 and then a calf ailment last year, and now he is
dealing with a groin injury. He is still practicing and playing
the significance of the injury down to the media, but he is
hobbled and it is noticeable. Are the days of Cruz being a solid
WR fantasy play week to week over? Sterling Shepard is getting
extra work and may be a bigger fantasy factor this year than we
thought.
Today's Fantistics Notes brought to us by
Jasbir Singh
8/14/2016
WR Doug Baldwin had a monster 2nd half with 47/724 yards
and 12 TDs. Posted 6 QS in his final 8 games. Most surprisingly he
increased his reception rate from 67% to 76%, while also
increasing his YPR from 12.5 to 13.7. Regression expected,
especially in the TD category, but he's a legit top 15-20 receiver
that's been available as late as the 5th round in some drafts.
Week 1 Saturday Observations:
Seattle's
Retread Christine Michael appears to have turned the
corner, figuratively and literally. He's had some buzz on him
in camp, and he looked spry in their preseason opener going 44
yards on 7 carries. Rawls is coming along slowly
following off season ankle surgery, and it appears that
Michael is going to push him for touches. The Chargers' 2015
1st rounder RB Melvin Gordon
may be in for a turnaround season, he looked much more
decisive on his runs Saturday night, and finished with with 12
yards on 3 carries, but the big play was a broken pass play
where he scampered for a 44 yard TD. He's moving into our late
round board. Rookie RB Derrick Henry
had a monster game with 74 yards on 10 carries, with a TD
against the opposing 2nd quarter defense. Before we get too
excited, lets consider that DeMarco Murray had an even
bigger night with 93 yards on only 6 carries (1 TD) against
the 1st quarter defense, and even Bishop Sankey ran for
52 yards on 3 totes. Basically the Chargers run defense was
non existent. The Chargers Rookie TE
Hunter Henry played in the 1st quarter and
performed well, finishing the night with 3 receptions for 43
yards on 4 targets. He's a deep league consideration at this
point, especially while Antonio Gates is healthy. The
Rams 3rd round Rookie
TE Tyler Higbee finished with 5 receptions on 6
targets for 49 yards. It was impressive work mixed into the
2nd and 3rd quarter. Lance Hendricks is ahead of Higbee
on the depth charts, but could be surpassed if Higbee can
continue his progress in pass protection. A rocky start for #1
overall QB Jared Goff, 4
for 9 for 38 yards and one INT. There was a pass that was
dropped that could have made his stat line look better and a
big hit ended his evening early. Growing pains. The Cowboys
4th round QB Dak Prescott
had the best night among the rookies with his 10/12 139 yards
2 TDs, of course he's going to be holding the clip board most
of this season, barring a Romo injury of course. With
RB Ezekiel Elliot
sidelined (hamstring), 6th round RB
Darius Jackson saw some 1st quarter action going 12
for 47 yards 3.9 YPC. There's just too many ahead of him in
the pecking order for fantasy consideration. There wasn't much
high end talent among the rookie WRs playing on Saturday
Night, WR
Pharoh Cooper was the highest
round WR playing (4th round) and he might have scored a TD if
he didn't get side swiped near the endzone.
On the injury front WR Jeff Janis has a fractured
hand and will miss significant time, Davante Adams was
higher in the pecking order before this injury and will remain
there for now. Rookie QB
Carson Wentz has a hairline fracture on his rib,
this will of course set him back further in his development,
Sam Bradford's stock moves up a bit, but he's still not
in the conversation in most fantasy formats.
-Anthony
A. Perri
Contained within our player projections software is a
notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators
that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a
look at some of the Wide Receivers that will be part of your 2016
draft (In no particular order):
Cobb,Randall
Despite a slight increase in
the number of targets, production fell considerably last season
without Nelson across from him. Fantasy Points per Game fell from
18.5 to only 13.1. Completion rate fell from 72% to only 61%. Should
bounce back with the return of Nelson on the other side.
Jones,Julio Posted his best season ever with
136 receptions and 1871 yards (8 TDs) which soared his QS index from 9
to 13 in 2016. Amazingly the increase in targets did not decrease his
reception percentage which actually increased from 64 to 67%. That said
it's hard to imagine that we'll see an increase in his 203 targets from
last season. Regardless, even with a 15% drop in production, a top 3
selection in most any PPR draft.
Baldwin,Doug Monster 2nd half with 47/724
yards and 12 TDs. Posted 6 QS in his final 8 games. Most surprisingly he
increased his reception rate from 67% to 76%, while also increasing his
YPR from 12.5 to 13.7. Regression expected, but he's now a legit top 15
receiver.
Matthews,Rishard Posted a solid 70% completion
rate with a elite 15.4 YPC ;last season in Miami. Elite 2.15 FP per
attempt, yet underutilized to the tune of 61 targets in 11 games. Could
emerge as a solid #2/#3 WR in fantasy.
Jones,Marvin Moves to Detroit, which is not
necessarily a great situation as DET threw the 6th least passes in the
NFL, while Cincinnati the 2nd most. On the positive side note he moves
to a QB who has better accuracy and he should see an increase in Red
Zone opportunities.
Sanu,Mohamed Faces a better schedule (B), gets
a more accurate QB, and will be the default #2. Has had some drop issues
in the past, but could blossom here.
Benjamin,Travis Posted a career year in 2015,
in a questionable QB situation, and now moves to a situation with a gun
slinger....which is perfectly suited for Benjamin's game. As with many
deep threat receivers, his production tends to be spaced apart and come
in bursts.
Fantasy Football
Draft Day Dominance!
Last season, our software ranked
Devonta Freeman 6
rounds ahead of his ADP.
We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not
having a starting job.
Doug Martin - 4 rounds
ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead.
Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins
2+
rounds ahead of their ADP.
Tight End
Jordan Reed,
10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of
his ADP. These are just a few
examples of the many calls we made in 2015.
(click
here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+
year track record).
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Ramirez)
8/13/2016
Rookie WR Laquon
Treadwell played better by making good on 4-of-5 targets for
41 yards on the night.
The only thing preventing Treadwell from shooting up the
draft boards is playing in a passing attack that ranked near the
bottom of the league last season.
Charles Johnson is a threat to start as the number
two in Minnesota as well, though Treadwell should be able to
overtake him early in the year if that does happen...According to
our latest consensus ADP (which can be seen in our draft advisory
software) Treadwell currently has a 10th round ADP...which is
pricey.
Friday night was
rookie night as plenty of newbie’s were on display in their
first NFL preseason action.
Our top rookie fantasy receiver
Sterling Shepard
was quiet in limited action as he finished the night with just
one catch for 24 yards despite four targets. Once he gets to
catch from Eli Manning, Shepard is expected to do big things
opposite Odell Beckham Jr....The Bengals
continue to be impressed with their rookie receiver as
Tyler Boyd
caught one pass on Friday for a 40-yard gain.
He remains in a battle with Brandon Lafell to be
the second option for Andy Dalton, though both should see plenty
of time on the field early in the season.
As the 6th
rookie receiver coming off the board, Boyd represents a solid
value option currently...The Dolphins have a strong young group of
receivers already, and rookie
Leonte Carroo
will add to that this season.
He caught 3 passes for just 18 yards on Friday, but with
continued work, he should be able to supplant Kenny Stills in
this offense.
Carroo finds himself in a crowded group though, so his
fantasy value is limited this season. Fellow Miami rookie
Jakeem Grant
made a name for himself Friday night with 68 yards receiving on
four receptions.
A sixth-round pick, Grant is a 5’7” speedster who could
carve out a slot role in this offense.
He’s worth monitoring in the coming weeks, though it’s a
long shot that Grant can break into fantasy relevance...Another
receiver who isn’t well known is the second rookie receiver pick
in Cleveland,
Rashard Higgins.
While Corey Coleman is the rookie everyone is
watching with the Browns, Higgins is working his way into a
role. He
caught just one pass on Friday night, but it went for a 10-yard
touchdown.
Keep an eye on his role as Cleveland isn’t set at the
receiver position despite the impressive play of
Terrelle Pryor
and Coleman...The Browns also have a rookie vying for a spot
behind center in
Cody Kessler.
With just Robert Griffin, Josh McCown and Austin Davis on
the roster, the rookie has a shot at working his way up the
ranks.
He fared well on Friday night completing 2-of-2 passes for 15
yards and a touchdown.
Kessler is not a redraft option, but he is worth a look
in dynasty leagues...Another young talent who has impressed so far
is New York RB Paul
Perkins, who racked up 40 yards on 8 touches Friday.
Perkins sits behind a slew of backs in New York, but none
are a safe bet for the Giants.
With Rashad Jennings (injury-prone) set to start the year
and Shane Vereen (a passing down specialist) and Andre Williams
(a short-yardage specialist) ahead of him, Perkins could easily
find his way to fantasy relevance this season...Jay
Ajayi didn’t help his cause on Friday night as he deals with
his own RB battle with Arian Foster.
Ajayi missed two passes that were targeted at him, while
managing just six yards on two carries.
He’ll need much more to beat out Foster for early down
work, though we are likely to see the Dolphins roll with the
veteran.
Ajayi should drop down the boards once Foster is deemed healthy
enough for some preseason work, which will make Ajayi a value to
scoop up later in the draft...Sammie
Coates has gathered a lot of buzz of late, but he didn’t
impress on Friday with 18 yards on three receptions and two
fumbles.
Coates continues to move up draft boards with the hype train
following him, which could lead to Markus Wheaton turning into
the better value of these two receivers...In his first action of
what we hope is a renewed season for
Eddie Lacy, he
rushed for 24 yards on 4 carries.
Jeremy McGoldrick
Other rookie observations:
Oakland's 5th
round selection RB DeAndre Washington
looked explosive with his 43 rush yards on 8 carries, 25 of
those came on one big run, and another 32 yards on a screen
pass.
Latavius
Murray, is the more talented runner, especially in tight
spaces, but Washington will cut into the 266 carries from a year
ago. The Raiders 7th round RB Keith
Marshall struggled in the run game, registering -1
yards on 5 carries. He did register 2 receptions on 2 targets
for 10 yards. RB Matt Jones looks safe for 250ish carries
at this point. On Thursday Night, Falcons 3rd round selection
TE Austin Hooper had no
receptions on his 1 target. Tight End remains far and away the
position that doesn't support offensive production during the
rookie season. The Dolphins 3rd round
RB Kenyan Drake (hamstring) didn't play week 1, thus
Jay Ajayi's value remains intact. 7th round selection for
the Lions, RB Dwayne Washington
saw 2 carries for 12 yards, and had 1 reception for 15. This
backfield is crowded and they seem to be intent on bringing
Washington along slowly. As Jeremy mentioned above, fantasy
radar is on Bengals 2nd round rookie WR
Tyler Boyd, but little known
6th round WR Cody Core has
also been impressive in camp, and yesterday he caught 3 of his 5
targeted passes for 33 yards, Boyd is still the guy to own in
non dynasty formats.
-Anthony
A. Perri
Fantasy Football
Draft Day Dominance!
Last season, our software ranked
Devonta Freeman 6
rounds ahead of his ADP.
We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not
having a starting job.
Doug Martin - 4 rounds
ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead.
Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins
2+
rounds ahead of their ADP.
Tight End
Jordan Reed,
10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of
his ADP. These are just a few
examples of the many calls we made in 2015.
(click
here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+
year track record).
Special
Promotion: Get the Fantistics Software for
Free*!
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Fantistics Touchdown Package for free. A $25 or more deposit on Fantasy
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8/12/2016
RB Kenneth Dixon
got his NFL career off to a good start with nine carries for
44 yards against the Panthers. He's got some players ahead of him,
but the talent is there, and he'll make the most of it given the
opportunity. Dixon has the future of a bell cow back and he could
end up being one of the best late game payoffs in this year's
fantasy drafts.
Kenneth Dixon
is a sleeper pick this year
as someone who can take over at some point during the season, a la
David Johnson last season. Dixon has a good ability at catching
the balls out of the backfield, which could get him use on third
downs this season..... While Dixon had the advantage
in terms of YPC Thursday, Terrance West is the one who
found the end zone twice on plunges from one and two yards out.
This could be telling as Justin Forsett isn’t a goaline back and
we aren’t real sure how the depth chart shakes out entirely behind
him, but West getting the goal line shots over Dixon could make
West’s ADP rise.... Devin Funchess only caught one
pass Thursday but he made it count, finding the endzone from 10
yards out. Funchess’ development as the WR3 in the Panthers’
offense could pay huge dividends if the Panthers can be three deep
at WR instead of just one deep like they were last year. Funchess
will likely start inside with Kelvin Benjamin and Ted Ginn Jr...
Mark Sanchez has a decent preseason debut completing 10 of
13 passes for 99 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The
nine yards a completion isn’t great, but it looks even worse when
you take into account that one of the passes was a 32 yard
touchdown to a wide open Demaryius Thomas. So outside of
that he completed nine passes for 67 yards which just over six
yards a completion.... After offseason ankle surgery, we all
thought that LaDarius Green hadn’t practiced yet because of
his ankle but rather it is because he is suffering from consistent
headaches. Green has had concussion issues in the past so it is a
bit concerning that he’s suffering these headaches. Green is
supposed to play a big role in the Steelers offense so this could
be a fantasy issue if it were to linger into the season.....
Michael Thomas had a very nice debut for the Saints hauling in
four catches for 67 yards including a diving grab down the field.
Thomas is a very trendy pick early in draft season and with this
game we may see him have big rise in ADP as we continue on the
preseason. Fantistics projects him for 60 catches, 736 yards, and
six scores and he could easily end up the #2 target behind
Brandin Cooks in the Saints offense..... Aldrick Robinson
may have thrown his name into the WR3 hat in the Falcons’
offense with a three catch 118 yard game in the teams’ first
preseason game. His current competition mainly comes from second
year receiver Justin Hardy who hauled In one pass for 17
yards. We still have a long way to go, but Matt Ryan does
project to throw for 4,400 yards and 26 touchdowns and not ALL of
those can go to Julio Jones.....Former LSU star WR
Russell Shepard had a good start to the season with three
catches for 62 yards and a score coming from starting QB Jameis
Winston. There’s a lot of mouths to feed in that TB offense, so
it’ll be interesting to see how the targets shake out if Shepard
is in fact able to lock down the #3 spot for the team..... IF
you’re looking for a super sleeper running backs, Tyler Gaffney
may just fit what you like. With Dion Lewis still
recovering to get 100% from his ACL surgery, Gaffney took
advatange Thursday to show what he can do. HE carried the ball
nine times for 64 yards (7.1 YPC) and he also snagged two passes.
So somehow Gaffney was able to get starting RB carries for the
Pats, he basically becomes what Dion Lewis was last year.... The
#2 overall pick Carson Wentz struggled in his NFL debut
completing 50% of his passes (12/24) for no scores and one pick.
He also showed a bit of an ability to run taking off three times
for another 15 yards. Chase Daniel didn’t exactly blow the
doors off the place going 4-for-10, but his $7 million paycheck
all but assures that he’s the backup to starter Sam Bradford....
Cody Latimer is a name we’ll recognize from a year ago as a
guy we were talking up about his potential role as the #3
receiver. Latimer snagged a game high seven passes for 82 yards,
which was also a career high...... Marquis Lee is clearly
behind Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns on the depth
chart, but there’s a chance that he’s able to have some success in
the WR3 role for the team. Lee caught four balls on Thursday for
49 yards and his four catches were tops on the team. Jimmy
Garoppolo completed 11 of 18 on Thursday for 168 but couldn’t
manage to find the endzone in the game. IF you literally have the
worst scenario ever happen at QB and you take Brady and cant find
a replacement for the first four weeks, well you probably should
keep looking. With Arizona, Miami, Houston, and Buffalo starting
the season I wouldn’t want any of the Jimmy G puzzle is any sort
of situation..... Even if it’s just one catch for three
yards, it’s nice to see the Bears’ wideout Kevin White
getting some playing time. Fantistics has a nice season projected
for White with 823 yards and seven scores in essentially when this
season is basically his rookie season.... Maybe this will be the
year that the Virgil Green slight hype train comes to
fruition as he and Sanchez connected three times for 36
yards in the preseason opener. Saying the Broncos’ is up in the
air is a question mark is an understatement as none of the Denver
TEs rank in the top 40 of our projections....
Josh Sperry
Fantasy Football
Draft Day Dominance!
Last season, our software ranked
Devonta Freeman 6
rounds ahead of his ADP.
We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not
having a starting job.
Doug Martin - 4 rounds
ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead.
Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins
2+
rounds ahead of their ADP.
Tight End
Jordan Reed,
10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of
his ADP. These are just a few
examples of the many calls we made in 2015.
(click
here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+
year track record).
Special
Promotion: Get the Fantistics Software for
Free*!
Get the normally $60
Fantistics Touchdown Package for free. A $25 or more deposit on Fantasy
Aces will get you the Touchdown Package PLUS a $25 credit on
Fantasy Aces; you can use this credit to enter Fantasy
Aces football contests and win even more cash using your FREE
Insider Football tools! This is a $85 value for a $25 deposit...what
are you waiting for?! SIGN UP HERE
(*This promotion is only available
to those who have never made a deposit nor have an account with
Fantasy Aces)
Kenneth Dixon (Round 4, Pick 134 -
Baltimore)
College – At the NFL
level, it’s now rare to see a running back who spent 4 years
playing college football. Since he was at Louisiana Tech since
2012, Dixon racked up an eye-popping 72 rushing touchdowns and
15 receiving touchdowns to go along with 5,452 total yards.
Despite a somewhat smaller build (5’8’’ 215 pounds), Dixon was a
very physical runner in college and never shied away from
contact. He was quite successful at it as well, gaining an
average of 3.3 yards after contact in 2015. The Ravens’ rookie
showed off excellent footwork and cutting ability during his
collegiate years, while also adding in just enough acceleration
to make most of his defenders miss the tackle. He did have some
ball security issues, so that’s one area of his name that will
certainly need to improve before he hits the NFL field.
Redraft Outlook – It’s
an extremely crowded backfield in Baltimore to begin training
camp. In the first published depth chart, Kenneth Dixon is
currently behind Justin Forsett and Buck Allen while missing the
first couple of weeks of camp with a knee injury. Conference
USA and the NFL are two completely types of football, so Dixon
is going he have a steep learning curve. He acknowledges the
challenges ahead of him and was quoted as saying “there’s a lot
more details to the game, checking protection before you get out
in the route, taking the correct steps in the zone run, but it’s
all the same. Football is football once you get used to it.”
Dixon’s physical style of play may get him into trouble as an
NFL player (in terms of injuries), but it also might help him
stand out and rise above the crowd at the position. Neither
Forsett nor Allen are dominant backs, so the opportunity is
certainly there for Dixon to compete for touches during the
pre-season. The outlook for this season remains a likely
timeshare between the three-headed monster, but Dixon was rated
as one of the top backs of the draft class, so he certainly has
the talent to grab more touches if he performs.
Dynasty Outlook – With
a relatively small build and a physical style of play, it
remains a question whether Dixon will be able to hold up over an
entire NFL season, let alone a long career. With that said, his
outlook in dynasty leagues is certainly brighter than his
outlook in re-draft leagues for 2016. With an almost identical
skillset to Buck Allen, his place on the team is a little
questionable, but the two backs should both compete for touches
after Forsett departs at the end of the 2016 season.
Fantistics Projection:
102 rushing attempts, 455 rushing yards, 4 rushing
touchdowns, 33 receptions, 280 receiving yards and 2 receiving
touchdowns.
Fantistics Michael Waldo breaks down all of the Rookie
RBs to know in your draft in our
member section today.
8/11/2016
Ezekiel Elliott
will not play in Saturday’s pre-season opener. This isn’t much of
a surprise since the rookie hasn’t been practicing, but it
certainly opens the door for Alfred Morris to make a good
impression... After team practice on Wednesday, Chief’s General
Manager John Dorsey said he was “optimistic” that Jamal
Charles will be ready for Week 1... The buzz out of camp has
been exceptionally positive for newly signed Marvin Jones
all pre-season and now it looks like he will be the WR1 to open
the season... Thomas Rawls was activated from the PUP list on
Tuesday, but team will take it easy with him this pre-season...
Cleveland rookie receiver Corey Coleman missed his 4th straight
practice on Wednesday... The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Paul
Dehner Jr doesn’t believe that Giovani Bernard will see a
boost in targets with the absence of tight end Tyler Eiffert.
Dehner Jr. also reported that “Seemingly every day during
camp, (Tyler) Boyd has made a play to make coaches take notice”...
When asked about the status of new tight end Ladarius Green,
Steelers head coach simply responded with “he’s still on PUP”....
The Texans released their first official depth chart on Tuesday
and it was second-year Jaelen Strong listed as the WR2, not
rookie Will Fuller.... New York Giants receiver Odell
Beckham Jr tried to spill the beans on rookie Sterling Shepard
after Wednesday’s practice by saying “I don’t want to spoil the
surprise, but he’s going to be a special player. I kind of want
to keep him on the down low right now, so that he just jumps out
the first couple of games and has some big plays”... Jimmy Graham
was activated from the PUP list on Tuesday, just 8 months since he
tore his right patellar tendon in Week 12 of last season....Philly
Voice’s Jimmy Kempski suggested on Wednesday that tight end
Trey Burton is “perhaps the biggest standout” in camp...Speaking
to Mike Clay on his fantasy football show on Sirius XM Fantasy
Sports Radio, ESPN’s Michael Rothstein reminded us that Jim
Caldwell “has never had a strong running game”. As Clay later
pointed out on Twitter, this fact is an important one to remember
while drafting Ameer Abdullah in fantasy drafts... One day
after leaving practice with a foot injury (via the dreaded golf
cart!), Julian Edelman was back at practice on Wednesday.
Michael Waldo
Fantasy Football
Draft Day Dominance!
Last season, our software ranked
Devonta Freeman 6
rounds ahead of his ADP.
We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not
having a starting job.
Doug Martin - 4 rounds
ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead.
Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins
2+
rounds ahead of their ADP.
Tight End
Jordan Reed,
10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of
his ADP. These are just a few
examples of the many calls we made in 2015.
(click
here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+
year track record).
Jamaal
Charles (KC) – After
team practice on Wednesday, Chief’s General Manager John Dorsey
said he was “optimistic” that Charles will be ready for Week 1.
While this is the same story we have been hearing all along, it
would be nice if we actually saw Charles take the field during
training camp. We’re now just a few weeks away from kick off
and Charles has yet to see one practice rep. There’s a fine
line between a veteran who needs fewer practice reps and a
veteran who won’t be in football shape. The Chiefs have two
very capable backups in Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware, so
while the general buzz has been that Charles will return to the
field with the same workload as pre-injury, that school of
thought might be at risk with a limited pre-season.
Ezekiel
Elliott (DAL) – Ezekiel
Elliott will not play in Saturday’s pre-season opener. This isn’t
much of a surprise since the rookie hasn’t been practicing, but it
certainly opens the door for Alfred Morris to make a good
impression. Both Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar will also miss
Saturday’s game, so Morris will have a nice opportunity to show
his ability to still be a featured back. Elliott’s stock has
fallen a bit over the last 2 weeks, amid off-the-field and injury
issues, but the future for the back remains exceptionally bright.
While he’s not a slam dunk, owners that gamble with a late
first-round pick on him are certainly getting a high-upside player
that could win you a league.
Marvin
Jones (DET) – The
buzz out of camp has been exceptionally positive for newly signed
Marvin Jones all pre-season. That buzz hit a fever pitch level
after MLive.com (an online Michigan news source) reporter Kyle
Meinke wrote that “On Tuesday, quarterback Matthew Stafford got
his first chance to work against a foreign defense, and he went to
Jones repeatedly, targeting him with seven of his 14 passes during
team drills at a joint practice with the Steelers.” Meinke also
mentioned that Jones looked like the team’s “top wideout. And in
recent days, it hasn’t been all that close”. The assumption all
along was that Golden Tate would see a nice bump in targets this
season with the absence of Megatron, but perhaps that won’t be the
case. Jones, of course, needs to prove he can stay healthy and on
the field, but we’ll likely see his ADP rise in the final weeks
before the season starts.
Thomas
Rawls (SEA) – Speaking
to reporters from the team’s website, Seahawks head coach Pete
Carroll reiterated the team’s caution regarding Thomas Rawls’
recovery from a broken ankle. "We’re going to be careful. There’s
no need to rush him at all. He’s a very violent football player
and he needs time to get ready to play the way he does, so we’re
going to take it, however long that is. I don’t even have a
schedule on that at this point.” Rawls was activated from the PUP
list on Tuesday. CJ Prosise has gained a little momentum in
recent weeks considering Rawls’ slow recovery time, but Pete
Carroll’s remarks definitely confirm that Rawls is a big part of
the team’s plans. Prosise will be a nice passing down back this
season, but there are definite question marks whether he will be
able to handle a workload of an every down back. Meanwhile
Carroll also said "I don’t think there’s anybody in better shape
than Thomas. I think he put himself in great, great condition."
It certainly seems like concerns over the second year back are
being overblown. Rawls averaged an impressive 5.6 yards per carry
last year while also posting a respectable 81.8% reception rate
out of the backfield.
Corey
Coleman (CLE) – Cleveland
rookie receiver Corey Coleman missed his 4th straight
practice on Wednesday. "For me, a hangnail would be concerning if
you have that kind of speed (4.37),'' receivers coach Al Saunders
said Tuesday to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com. "Our trainers are
phenomenal. He was kept out of practice (the past four days). He's
had a history of soft tissue injuries. He's had three or four
hamstring pulls. He had groin surgery recently. We just want to
make sure he's right and ready to go.'' Cabot went on to document
Coleman’s lengthy history of hamstring injuries in her article,
but the key takeaway was that the team may decide to hold Coleman
out of their pre-season contest with the Green Bay Packers.
Coleman was really impressive in the first week of training camp
last week and there’s growing optimism in Cleveland after RGIII
and the rookie have shown really nice chemistry together.
Tyler
Boyd (CIN) –
The Cincinnatti Enquirer’s Paul Dehner Jr. reported that
“Seemingly every day during camp, (Tyler) Boyd has made a play to
make coaches take notice”. The Bengals have a lot of targets up
for grabs with Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones each wearing
different uniforms this year and tight end Tyler Eiffert set to
miss 3-4 months. The second round pick has been doing and saying
all the right things this pre-season and certainly looks like
he’ll play a nice role for the offense in 2016. He’s a near lock
to start alongside AJ Green and Brandon LaFell in week 1.
Ladarius
Green (PIT)
– When asked about the status of new tight end Ladarius Green,
Steelers head coach simply responded with “he’s still on PUP”.
Green has always had all the potential in the world, but has
failed to stay on the field long enough to flash it. Once tabbed
as the replacement for Antonio Gates in San Diego, Green now takes
his services in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are one of the most
prolific red zone offenses in the league, which is an area where
Green thrives, but he needs to get on the field to build a rapport
with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
Giovani
Bernard (CIN) –
The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Paul Dehner Jr doesn’t believe
that Giovani Bernard will see a boost in targets with the absence
of tight end Tyler Eiffert. Instead, he believes that the team
will spread the targets between Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd, but
Jeremy Hill also seeing a few more carries. If this is true,
Bernard’s recent ADP jump is likely unwarranted. Nonetheless,
we’ll see how this plays out. LaFell has been an injury waiting
to happen for much of his career, while Tyler Boyd is a rookie.
One thing we do know for sure is that the Bengals’ running back
situation is a moving target that’s nearly impossible to project.
Will
Fuller (HOU) –
The Texans released their first official depth chart on Tuesday
and it was second-year Jaelen Strong listed as the WR2, not rookie
Will Fuller. Nonetheless, the Houston Chronical is
reporting that the rookie has mostly participated as the wide
receiver opposite of DeAndre Hopkins during practice and that his
route running stood out on Tuesday. While it would be nice to
think that the WR2 in Houston is going to make a huge impact, the
reality is that Nuk will capture such a large percentage of the
team’s targets that it’ll be difficult for the WR2 to return
consistent value over an entire season. That’s not to say that
Fuller lacks upside, it’s just something to consider while sitting
in your draft room.
Sterling
Shepard (NYG)
– New York Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr tried to spill the
beans on rookie Sterling Shepard after Wednesday’s practice by
saying “I don’t want to spoil the surprise, but he’s going to be a
special player. I kind of want to keep him on the down low right
now, so that he just jumps out the first couple of games and has
some big plays”. Sorry, Odell, but the fantasy community is
already on it. Shepard has both the skills and the opportunity to
be the most productive rookie wide receiver this season.
Jimmy
Graham (SEA) –
Jimmy Graham was activated from the PUP list on Tuesday, just 8
months since he tore his right patellar tendon in Week 12 of last
season. Graham seems positioned to be available in Week 1, but
we’ll obviously want to watch closely this pre-season to ensure he
doesn’t suffer any setbacks. After scoring 51 touchdowns in 78
games as a New Orleans Saint, Graham managed to score just 2 in
his 11 games with the Seahawks. While a return to dominance
certainly isn’t out of the question, Graham’s injury is
notoriously difficult to come back from and he’ll be 30 years old
this season.
Trey
Burton (PHI) –
Philly Voice’s Jimmy Kempski suggested on Wednesday that tight end
Trey Burton is “perhaps the biggest standout” in camp. Kempski
went on to say that the Eagles would do well with a 13 personnel
set-up that features one running back, one wide receiver, and
three tight ends. Kempski’s comments also seem to be in line with
Eagles’ offensive coordinator Frank Reich. Speaking to the Philadelphia
Inquirer, Reich said “Tight end is the strength of this
roster, this offensive unit. If you look at Doug’s system and
what they did in Kansas City with their tight ends and how we’ll
utilize them here, it’ll be very consistent with that, and we’ve
got the players to do it.” Reich is referring to Pederson’s time
as the offensive coordinator under Andy Reid in Kansas City when a
large part of their offense centered around Travis Kelce and
Anthony Fasano. It worked well in Kansas City, but they also had
one of the best running backs in the league as well. Nonetheless,
Burton is an interesting name to keep an eye on in dynasty
formats, but can probably be ignored in re-draft leagues for now.
Ameer
Abdullah (DET) –
Speaking to Mike Clay on his fantasy football show on Sirius XM
Fantasy Sports Radio, ESPN’s Michael Rothstein reminded us
that Jim Caldwell “has never had a strong running game”. As Clay
later pointed out on Twitter, this fact is an important one to
remember while drafting Ameer Abdullah in fantasy drafts. All
pre-season we have been given the indication that Abdullah would
become the Lions lead back this year, but no one has really talked
about how much usage he would see. Currently being drafted as the
30th running back off the board, his cost seems to be
about right. In other words, don’t reach for Abdullah just
because he’s “the lead back”.
Eric
Ebron (DET)
– Speaking on Mike Clay’s fantasy football show on Sirius XM
Fantasy Sports Radio, Mike Rothstein also offered positive
news on tight end Eric Ebron. According to Rothstein, Ebron’s
injury did not impact the achilles at all and was limited only to
his ankle. While that means he’ll likely miss the pre-season,
there’s a good shot he’ll be ready to week 1. The hype train was
getting out of control for Ebron this summer, but last week’s
injury definitely slowed things down a bit. If he is ready, he
could once again be had for a nice value. Rothstein added that
Ebron is now Matt Staffords “tallest option” and “may be a
favorite of Stafford in the red zone”.
Julian
Edelman (NE) – One
day after leaving practice with a foot injury (via the dreaded
golf cart!), Julian Edelman was back at practice on Wednesday.
While this particular situation turned out to be nothing of
concern, it’s a simple reminder that Julian Edelman has had an
extensive injury history and he’s no guarantee to get through this
season without a setback to his surgically repaired foot (or
something else). Edelman is currently being drafted as a WR2 in
most leagues and while this draft position is probably fair
considering his injury risk, he could easily perform as a WR1 in
PPR leagues if he can stay healthy the entire year.
Notes prepared by Fantistics
Michael
Waldo.
Fantistics Dan Clasgens
@DanClasgens breaks down all of the Top 5 Undervalued
QBs to know in your draft in our
member section
today. Here's one of them:
Kirk Cousins, Washington
Redskins (NFFC QB13 – Blended ADP 10.10)
Positives: Last year at this
time Kirk Cousins was stilled marred in a QB controversy. However,
he emerged as the franchise quarterback with solid 2015 campaign.
During the second half of the season he threw 19 touchdowns with
just two interceptions and completed 74 percent of his passes.
With Robert Griffin III now dawning a Browns’ uniform, there is no
doubt who is this team’s leader in the huddle. He has gelled
under Jay Gruden and his pass happy approach, averaging 273 yards
per game through the air since his arrival to D.C. The team added
a stud target in the rookie draft when they landed wide receiver
Josh Docston and if Jordan Reed stays healthy he could become the
most productive tight end in the league.
Negatives: Despite the fact
he rushed for five touchdowns a year ago, Cousins is actually one
of the least mobile quarterbacks in the league. Expect some
regression in that regard as teams have familiarized themselves
with that look. The schedule will be tougher this year than the
slate Cousins and the Redskins faced a year ago. There is a ton
of upside to the Redskins’ offense, but there are still many
question marks. Durability is an issue with nearly every
significant playmaker in Washington’s attack. If a few key cogs go
down, Cousins numbers may quickly head south.
Final Say: Cousins appears
to be poised for low-end QB1 production and given his system and
job security it would not be a bit surprising to see him finish
inside the top 10 in fantasy points at the position. Fantistics
favors him over some veterans like Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers,
and Matthew Stafford.
8/10/2016
A Look at ADP by Kyle Elfrink
I want to take a bit of a break from the
usual this week. Instead of focusing on the ADP movement,
specific players, or the general storylines that have crept to the
fore in the preceding week, I thought I’d keep the focus on one
position and the constant decision you have to make at that spot.
As many of you know, no one likes to invest
in running backs in 2016. Too many fantasy owners have been
burned by injury, ineffectiveness, and unforeseen benchings over
the previous half-decade. Plus, the game of football has devolved
into a ‘pass-or-die’ affair, creating dozens of viable fantasy
options at wide receiver. In hand with the pass-heavy approach,
NFL teams have also built their rosters around the idea of two and
three-headed backfields to handle the little amount of rushes that
are still available.
That rotation effect is now in play with 3/4th’s
of the 32 NFL teams (and, maybe more). It’s so prevalent that
even RBs going in the top 20 are no great bet for over 240 carries
this year. That’s a dramatic change from a decade ago when 21
different RBs totaled at least that many attempts. With draft
season now in full action mode we’re seeing how fantasy players
are choosing to handle the rotations - Are they hand-cuffing? Do
owners understand the actual nature of each NFL squad’s backfield
plans? What is the selection gap between a team’s first and
second option?
My goal this week is to answer the
question ... Are those gaps wider than they should be?
·
Devonta Freeman (6th RB) or Tevin
Coleman (42nd RB)
Perhaps it’s difficult to
recall, but just 12 months ago, Coleman was considered by many in
our world as the best option in the Atlanta backfield. As usual,
an injury tossed those opinions to the side and in their place
came the excitement of Freeman. Over a five week span in the
first half, he collected over 800 yards rushing and tacked on an
amazing nine TDs. The season proved front-loaded, though, as
Freeman was below-average on the ground in the second half and saw
his TDs dip accordingly. He still collected a massive amount of
receptions (73 for the year) to alleviate that pain, though.
But, now, we might be back
to square one. Freeman is certainly the favorite for a majority
of the carries, but that majority might be less than 60%. In
fact, it wouldn’t be surprising if his top fantasy attribute is
another solid contribution in the receptions category. Throughout
the offseason and into camp the Falcons’ coaching staff has been
adamant that both guys will see work this year. They’ve repeated
time and time again that they consider their backfield to be a duo
and not a solo act.
The current ADP gap is much
too large. Freeman should be dropped outside the top-10 at the
position and Coleman should be lifted to near the 35th
spot. A 36-spot differential should be closer to 25.
·
Doug Martin (11th RB) or Charles
Sims (34th RB)
This is more like it.
Despite Martin’s fabulous return to relevancy of a year ago (over
1,400 yards rushing), he’s still far from a certain thing.
Frankly, he’s had two very strong season and two very weak seasons
through his first four go-around’s in the NFL. At the same time,
Sims proved more than capable of carving out a productive role in
the Bucs’ offense. He was good for about five yards a carry last
season (on 107 rush attempts) and was a true PPR-asset with more
than 50 catches. He will always have that skill on Martin so
another 50+ catches should be in the cards for Sims. Beyond that,
he’s one of the best hand-cuffs in the game, right now. Not only
is he backing up a guy who has had some injury issues in the past,
but Sims has also crafted a resume beyond the simple argument of
‘opportunity.’
Think of it this way ...
Martin stayed healthy for 2016, produced like a Pro Bowler, and
Sims still ended up as a top-20 RB in PPR set-ups!
Considering the relative cost of the two, right now, Sims is a
much better snag than Martin. The differential in ADP is fair,
but could easily be turned upside-down this fall.
·
Matt Jones (20th RB) or Keith
Marshall (73rd RB)
Jones tempted in his rookie
year. He definitely has the ‘look’ of a game-breaker and even
showed it from time-to-time. Unfortunately all of those moments
seem to have come in cameo’s. When he was actually granted
double-digit carries, he came up short. That happened eight times
in his rookie campaign. The first time was in Week 2 when he
roasted the Rams for two scores and just over 120 yards on the
ground. That got folks amped, but it was nothing more than red
herring. In seven other efforts featuring double-digit attempts,
Jones came up with a horrific total of 280 yards on 90 carries (a
3.1 ypc average). In effect, he failed.
That rough first year didn’t
stop the Redskins from lining him up as their top dog while
forming their offseason plans. A look at the relative nobody’s
and no names on the Washington depth chart, plus the removal of
Alfred Morris, was enough to lift Jones into the RB2
discussion. I actually think he belongs there and that his
current ADP represents fair value.
Where the ADP misses the
mark is with Marshall. Coming out of the University of Georgia,
you know that Marshall has skill and ability. But, it never came
to life in the SEC and, thus, you had his stock free-falling into
the 7th-round on draft day back in May. For many, that
made him little more than a lame body when it came to fantasy
football draft boards. But, earlier in the week Redskin GM Scott
McCloughan appeared on SiriusXM NFL Radio and readily
vocalized the idea of two guys handling duties in the Washington
backfield. He went so far as to say that Marshall was the
favorite to suck away some of Jones’ work.
Jones has a good deal to
prove in the preseason. In fact, in an August run-up full of
things that do not matter, Jones’ showing actually should be one
to keep your eyes on. He needs to not only have some measure of
success, but he MUST hold onto the football in exhibition play
(five fumbles in less than 165 touches last year). Leading into
the first round of games this week I would still slot Jones as a
low-end RB2. Marshall should probably be upgraded a good 10-15
spots purely on the off-chance that he earns 30% of the work. I
like Jones much, much more, but the lurking presence of Marshall,
plus the ‘Skins’ own words creates some wobble.
·
Duke Johnson (23rd RB) or Isaiah
Crowell (41st RB)
This is a battle that could
go either way. And, that’s why you see the ADPs the way they
are. The general expectation is that the Johnson-Crowell tandem
is hoping to replicate their in-state neighbors to the south,
Hill-Bernard. Crowell is in the role of Hill, while Johnson mans
the Bernard spot. Furthering the comparison, Hue Jackson is now
the head coach in Cleveland after a few seasons of running the
offense in Cincinnati.
Crowell probably deserves
his current slot, but I can’t say he interests me much. He has
shown zero ability to push opposing tacklers around and is an
excellent example of a ‘plodder.’ Still, if he stays healthy for
a full year (which he’s done in each of his first two years), you
should expect anywhere from 160-200 carries. Even at less than
four yards a pop that play. It especially plays if you turn that
work into TDs. Unfortunately, though, Crowell hasn’t done that,
yet, with just a dozen rushing TDs over a collection of 333 career
carries. He’s a running back you settle for. He’s not a running
back you seek out.
Johnson is very different.
The receiving skill gives him a huge boost over his teammate in
PPR leagues and there’s some thought that he be good for 75
catches this year. If he nipped that number, you’re talking about
a top-15 PPR RB. With Robert Griffin III already named the
starter for this season and question marks throughout the Browns’
wide receiving crew, I think Johnson is a legitimate PPR stud. If
you ring out his name in the 6th round or later this
month you’ve done well.
The gap between these two is
fair. I’m not keen on Crowell, but he will still see some
quantity in the Browns system. But, all the excitement lies with
Johnson. I don’t expect many good moments from Cleveland’s
new-look attack, but if I had to pick anyone on their team,
Johnson would be the guy.
·
T.J. Yeldon (32nd RB) or Chris
Ivory (35th RB)
On Tuesday, the Jags latest
depth chart showed that Yeldon and Ivory were ‘co-starters.’ I
wouldn’t buy it. To me, Ivory should be ahead of Yeldon and it
should be by nearly 10 spots in the RB rankings. Ivory was a
force for the Jets last season and turned the effort into a
big-time contract with Jacksonville. If you look at this
objectively, you have to admit that Ivory is a better bet for goal
line work, 4th-quarter work, and pass receiving work.
That’s not to say that Yeldon is finished after one disappointing
year. In fact, I wouldn’t be stunned to see Yeldon handle more
carries than Ivory to begin the year. Eventually, though, I think
Ivory will net more snaps and net more fantasy points than his
younger stablemate.
The largest concern that I
have with Ivory is, of course, his propensity for injury. He runs
hard and he charges into tacklers. That leaves him noticeably
beat up by years’ end. Jacksonville knows this and will probably
‘protect’ him early by giving a few more attempts to Yeldon. So
be patient early on. You likely won’t have a Week 1 fantasy
starter in Ivory, but I think that that as the leaves turn, so
will the Jags’ personnel usage.
·
Justin Forsett (38th RB), Buck
Allen (44th RB), Kenneth Dixon (46th RB)
A simple look-see at the
above ADP marks provide evidence of how unsettled and unknown
things are in the Raven backfield. Early camp reports say Forsett
(knee) looks healthy and ready to regain his starting gig. That
will probably hold leading into the season. I have questions,
though, if it will hold leading into October. Allen showed plenty
in Forsett’s absence last year with 45 catches in Baltimore’s PPR-friendly
attack. His ability to haul in throws is immensely better than
Forsett’s, so I would still count on him for load of 3rd-down
work. Dixon was drafted out of Louisiana Tech and is also known
as a catch-first tailback. All in all, we just have a convoluted
situation that is best avoided. The ADP marks are legitimate and
the slight difference between the three is warranted. But, to be
frank, I believe Baltimore will be flip-flopping their running
workloads all year long. When you think they’ve found their guy
for the long haul, then a new injury, a new matchup, or a new
offensive wrinkle, will make them look like ‘New England West.’
·
Matt Forte (12th RB) or Bilal
Powell (48th)
Forte’s career has been one
of greatness most every time for fantasy players. But, last year
gave us our first signs that the threads of that success weren’t
going to hold forever. The Bears went younger, while the Jets
took aim at getting one last very good season out of the free
agent vet. As with every single running back who enters their
fourth decade (age 30), New York will monitor Forte’s overall
workload. He’ll still be ‘the guy’ for the most part, but we
could see entire drives where the quietly effective Powell (or
even Khiry Robinson) takes over. That’s smart from the
Jets perspective, but it puts a damper on anyone who thinks Forte
should regularly see 20 touches per week.
Forte is going a bit too high
at 12 and should be dropped a few slots. Powell might be due a
slight bump in the other direction, but repeating his 47 catches
of a season ago will be difficult unless Forte comes up limping.
Remember, Forte will still handle a nice amount of 3rd
down chances (he’s averaged over 60 catches per year over
eight NFL campaigns. I would love Forte as an RB2, but would not
see Powell as a necessary part of my fantasy team equation.
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on ‘The
SiriusXM Fantasy Drive’ from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
Contained within the Fantistics Draft Software is the
ability to choose different ADP providers (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, NFBC,
MFL, MFL PPR, and blended). Other than the usefulness of using the
different ADPs to know what others are thinking, this also allows
us the ability to complete different mock drafts using different
ADP sources, giving you a different draft in each scenario. Click
on the Web update feature in the
Draft Advisory Software to download the latest ADPs today.
Contained within our player projections software is a
notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators
that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a
look at some of the Quarterbacks that will be part of your 2016
draft (In no particular order):
Bradford,Sam Struggles with the deep pass, but is serviceable
in the west coast offense. Wentz will push him at some point
however. Only 5 Quality starts in '15, with a well below average .45
FP per attempt.
Taylor,Tyrod Above average .79 FP per attempt in 2015, with a
decent 25% Red Zone success rate on runs within the Red Zone. Came
through with 5 Quality Starts in final 8 games, and this came
despite not throwing for over 300 yards in any of his games.
Schedule stays neutral with 7 favorable and 4 neutral matchups.
Favorably his offensive line is considered one of the best in
protecting the pass rush.
Dalton,Andy Posted a solid 10 Quality Starts in 13 starts
with an overall QB rating of 106.3 last season. His line held tight,
as Dalton was only sacked 20 times. Working against him once again
this season is the SOS, which rates out as a D+ again this season.
Gabbert,Blaine Enters a new system that will increase his
attempts considerably this season, one in which he should perform
decently in. Working against him is a miserable OL (D+) and SOS
(D+).
Newton,Cam Ripped it open in the 2nd half with 7 Quality
starts in final 8 games (13 overall). Averaged an elite .88 FP per
attempt. Most impressively, he did it without any brand name
receivers (Other than his TE). His 2015 will be difficult to
replicate, but he's a pretty safe selection as a top two QB.
Tannehill,Ryan Decent Oline (C+), yet was sacked 45 times
last season. Only 4 QS in 16 games, despite 6 300 yard games. Will
need to step it up in the TD department to achieve QB2 success.
Schedule stays favorable with 7 favorable matchups projected.
Luck,Andrew Struggled with only 3 QS in his 7 games. Oline
was deficient, and although improved, it will still struggle to be
league average. Schedule remains neutral with 6 projected favorable
and 4 neutral matchups. Needs high volume to be a fantasy top 5 QB.
Fantistics Joe Everett breaks down all of the Top
Undervalued IDP players to know in your draft in our
member section today.
There are over 400 IDP players projected in our 2016
Fantistics Draft Advisory software. Here's a look at some
Linebackers to keep an eye on:
LINEBACKERS
Deion Jones, Atlanta Falcons - [ ADP: #32 LB ] The rookie from
LSU is poised to have a big season, as our take is that Paul Worrilow
has fallen out of favor and the new coaching staff drafted Jones 52nd
overall for a reason. He projects as our top rookie linebacker with 90+
tackles and a poor man’s version of Bobby Wagner that should thrive in
Dan Quinn’s scheme.
Gerald Hodges, San Francisco 49ers - [ ADP: Undrafted LB ] The
49ers will start Gerald Hodges regularly inside next to Navorro Bowman
and Hodges has flashed big time hitting ability when given the playing
time. He could be a #3 linebacker in tackle heavy formats this year
because of how much San Francisco runs out of their base package and the
49ers also profile as a team that will be playing from behind often.
Blake Martinez, Green Bay Packers - [ ADP: Undrafted LB ]
Martinez has been running with the first team in camp and the coaching
staff is very high on the rookie from Stanford. He could feasibly be the
exclusive sub package linebacker in coverage for Green Bay which will
result in a lot of playing time, as the Packers should be ahead in most
games playing zone and prevent.
FANTISTICS.com BEST BUYS
-
KJ Wright, Seattle Seahawks - [ ADP: #39 LB ] Wright is vastly
underrated, as he has racked up two 100+ tackle seasons in a row but
doesn't have the big name recognition that the linebackers he
regularly outscores do. We have him projected to finish ten spots
ahead of his current ADP.
-
Melvin Ingram, San Diego Chargers - [ ADP: #43 LB ] Ingram
quietly posted 10.5 sacks last year and finally played a full 16 game
season. He showed off all that potential that we saw during his
monster senior season at South Carolina. He is a value in drafts,
considering he still doesn't have a tone of name value and most owners
will pass on him.
-
Benardrick McKinney, Houston Texans - [ ADP: #51 LB ]
McKinney's second half of the season rookie numbers prorate to 86
total tackles and two sacks. He is reportedly having a great
off-season and will be used even more as a pass rusher, so we expect
him to take the next step in his second year.
-
David Harris, New York Jets - [ ADP: #56 LB ] Rinse, wash,
repeat. That's how Harris' career has gone. 100-110 total tackles, a
handful of sacks and some forced fumbles thrown in. He is insanely
consistent year to year but he is the 56th linebacker off the board
and we have him forecasted to finish in the Top-20.
-
Anthony Hitchens, Dallas Cowboys - [ ADP: Undrafted LB ]
Anthony Hitchens will see a majority of the playing time inside next
to Sean Lee after Rolando McClain’s suspension. Considering how injury
prone Sean Lee has been throughout his career and the fact that Andrew
Gachkar is currently hurt, Hitchens could end up playing a ton of
snaps this season.
8/09/2016
After missing nearly a week of action,
Alshon Jeffrey (hamstring) was back on the practice field on
Monday for the Bears. Chicago placed the franchise tag on their
top wide receiver this offseason partially because of concerns of
his durability issues…Sammy Watkins (foot) passed his
physical and was taken off the Bills’ PUP list on Monday. That’s a
huge plus for Watkins and his Week 1 playing status…The Eagles
will be without wide receiver Jordan Matthews (knee) for
2-4 weeks as he deals with “a bone bruise”, according to the
Philadelphia Daily News. A loss of Matthews would be
devastating to an offense starving for weapons…The Dolphins have
listed Jay Ajayi as their No. 1 running back on their
initial preseason depth chart, of newly signed free agent Arian
Foster. Expect the two running backs to share the workload for
most of the season in Miami…After initially believing the Detroit
tight end Eric Ebron suffered an Achilles’ injury,
ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting it is actually a “high ankle
sprain” issue Ebron is dealing with. That is better news than
originally anticipated and could still mean he’ll be available for
Week 1…Cleveland wide receiver Josh Gordon (suspension) has
plenty of work to do to get back into shape before he’s eligible
to return in Week 5. He “will be the first to tell you he needs
to lose weight,” according to head coach Hue Jackson…Denver has
listed Mark Sanchez and Travis Siemian as
co-starters at quarterback on their initial depth chart…The
Redskins will not dress wide receivers Jamison Crowder
(hamstring) or Josh Doctson (Achilles) in Thursday’s
preseason opener… Buffalo left tackle Cordy Glenn (ankle)
is expected to miss the entire preseason. Glenn hasn’t missed a
game since 2012.
Dan Clasgens.
The 2016 Rookie Runningbacks – By
Michael Waldo
Ezekiel Elliott (Round 1, Pick 4 – Cowboys)
College – Playing behind
Carlos Hyde as a freshman, Ezekiel Elliott barely saw the field in
2013. That changed in 2014 when he climbed the depth chart and
claimed the starting running back job for the Ohio State
Buckeyes. Thanks to a very strong finish to the year, he helped
the Buckeyes beat Alabama for the national title, but on the
whole, Elliott wasn’t overly dominant and finished the year Big 10
Conference honorable mention. Elliott rode his strong finish in
2014 into a great junior year in 2015 while being named a 2nd
Team All-American and the Big 10 Offensive Player of the Year. He
finished the season with 1,821 rushing yards and 23 rushing
touchdowns with a 6.3 average yards per carry. Despite forgoing
his final year of eligibility, Elliott still managed to finish 2nd
on the All-Time Rushing list for the Buckeyes, passing Eddie
George, but falling short of a near impossible Archie Griffin
(5,589 yards). While in college, Elliott was a successful runner
both on the inside and to the outside. In addition to very good
acceleration, his 6’0’’ 225 pound frame gives him the body he
needs to muscle up to opposing defenders, helping him break
tackles with ease.
Redraft Outlook – Ezekiel
Elliott is the first rookie running back to be a consensus
first-rounder in the fantasy game since Ryan Mathews in 2010.
Other quality backs have been in the conversation from a skills
perspective, but none have landed in an offense as favorable as
Dallas. The Cowboys led the league in both runs and passes
blocked in 2015 and the outlook for 2016 is just as rosy. Elliott
is no stranger to playing behind good offensive lines considering
his Buckeyes were among the best in the nation for both of the
last two seasons. Strictly looking at 2016 production, it
certainly sounds like the Cowboys are committed to giving their
rookie a chance to run away with the starting job. As we’ve seen
the last two seasons in Dallas, anyone with a pulse can succeed at
running back in that offense (I’m looking at you, Darren
McFadden). Add in the fact that Elliott was clearly the most
talented back in this year’s draft class and we have the makings
of something really special. Unfortunately, assault allegations
and a training camp hamstring injury have taken some of the shine
off his currently draft value, which might open the door for newly
signed Alfred Morris or rehabbing McFadden to share some carries,
especially in the beginning of the season. The assault
allegations are reportedly unfounded and lack hard evidence, so
that situation will likely resolve itself, but the hamstring
injury is definitely a situation to monitor. As it stands today,
taking Elliott in the first round might be the kind of high
risk/high reward decision that either wins you your league, or
forces you to battle for the last playoff spot in Week 13.
Dynasty Outlook – The
future looks bright for Elliott, but it’s very possible that he’ll
never be in a better position to succeed than he is in 2016. As
we mentioned earlier, he does have a little competition with both
Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden on the Cowboys’ depth chart, and
while it might feel like both of those players have been around
forever, they’re just 27 and 28 years old, respectively.
Nonetheless, the Cowboys reached for Elliott with the 4th
overall pick of the 2016 draft because they believe he can be
their 3-down back for the foreseeable future. As long as the
‘Boys can keep their o-line together, Elliott will continue to be
valued as a 1st or 2nd round pick for years
to come.
Fantistics Projection:
261 rushing attempts, 1,320 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns,
46 receptions, 344 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown.
Fantistics Michael Waldo breaks down all of the Rookie
QBs to know in your draft in our
member section today.
Fantasy Football
Draft Day Dominance!
Last season, our software ranked
Devonta Freeman 6
rounds ahead of his ADP.
We ranked rookie David Johnson as a 7th round ADP, despite not
having a starting job.
Doug Martin - 4 rounds
ahead of his ADP, Jonathan Stewart - 2 rounds ahead.
Top-10 wide receivers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins
2+
rounds ahead of their ADP.
Tight End
Jordan Reed,
10 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tyler Eifert, 4 rounds ahead of
his ADP. These are just a few
examples of the many calls we made in 2015.
(click
here for a complete look back at our 2015 projections and 15+
year track record).
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Ertz,Zach
- PHI/TE: If Travis Kelce’s success in Kansas City is any
indicator, fantasy owners should expect big things ahead for
Zach Ertz this year in fantasy. "Tight end is a strength of this
roster, this offensive unit," OC Frank Reich told reporters. "If
you look at Doug’s [Pederson] system and what they did in Kansas
City with their tight ends and how we’ll utilize them here,
it’ll be very consistent with that." Ertz has a great chance to
outperform his current TE8 NFFC ADP (94.69) draft spot.
Cook,Jared
- GB/TE: The Packers are hopeful to have tight end Jared
Cook (knee) back on the practice field “next week”, according to
quarterback Aaron Rodgers. It appears that Cook is nearing a
return and he needs as much time as possible to get acquainted
with his new offense. Green Bay is not taking many chances
though. They worked out 33-year old free agent Kellen Winslow
Jr. over the weekend. Cook has plenty to prove before we can
recommend him a draft day option in most formats.
Abdullah,Ameer
- DET/RB: Lions’ running back Ameer Abdullah is hoping to
take his game to the next level during his second season of
action in 2016. He told the Detroit Free Press that he wants to
“be the guy you can count on in any situation." Currently the
Lions plan on using a running back-by-committee approach, but
there’s no doubt Abdullah figures to get the largest share of
that. He’s nice mid-round option as you look to build depth to
your fantasy backfield based off his potentially high ceiling.
Griffin
III,Robert - CLE/QB: Cleveland head coach Hue Jackson
announced that Robert Griffin III will be the team’s starting
quarterback over veteran Josh McCown. It’s not a surprise that
the newly signed quarterback will get the first crack at running
the offense. However, RGIII will have to play decently to keep
the job as he’ll certainly be on a short leash. Griffin should
only be considered in deeper leagues or formats that require
multiple starting quarterbacks in their lineups.
Lockett,Tyler
- SEA/WR: It’s becoming more and more apparent that Seattle
wide receiver Tyler Lockett is poised for big things ahead. Add
ESPN’s Sheil Kapadia to the latest beat writer to jump on the
bandwagon. “It’s clear that the team is going to find ways to
get him consistent touches on a weekly basis,” according to
Kapadia. Lockett should easily build on his 51/664/6 stat line
from a year ago.
Parker,Devante
- MIA/WR: DeVante Parker (hamstring) remains on the
sidelines in the Dolphins’ training camp. He has been sidelined
for the past week with the injury, but the team is hopeful that
the second-year receiver “will be back soon” per the Miami
Herald. The potential is there for big things from Parker in
2016, but it’s not a great sign that he’s already missed a week
of action. He was limited by injuries during his rookie campaign
as well and only had four catches in the first 11 weeks of the
season.
Treadwell,Laquon
- MIN/WR: The opening week of training camp has not gone
well for Minnesota rookie wide receiver. The Vikings released
their initial depth chart and Treadwell is behind Charles
Johnson currently as the X receiver. Meanwhile second-year
wideout Stefon
Diggs, who is currently slated to start as the Z receiver,
is looking stellar early on in camp. Treadwell has a ton of
talent, but his game may not be as ready as his first-round
pedigree would suggest.
Sims,Charles
- TB/RB: Doug Martin had a great 2015 and got paid this
offseason, but running back Charles Sims is more likely to be
the Tampa Bay runner to outperform his price in 2016. In a
backup role he had 51 receptions last season while averaging 11
yards per catch (second-best mark in the league for running
backs). He rushed for 529 yards, averaging 4.9 yards per carry
(same as Martin) too. There is a growing sentiment that there
could be more of time share this year in the Bucs’ backfield
then we saw a year ago. His current ADP of 14.09 makes Sims an
extremely appealing option for owners as they go to build their
bench.
Winston,Jameis
- TB/QB: Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston showed well as
a rookie, averaging 253 passing yards per contest and throwing
22 touchdowns. He rushed for another 210 yards and six scores.
With offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter taking over as head
coach and Winston entering his second season, the Bucs are
expected to get more aggressive in their play calling. When you
consider that Winston’s three primary pass catchers missed a
combined 16 games a year ago, the stars are aligning for a big
increase in production in 2016. He should be viewed as a
high-end QB2 for now, but he definitely possesses top 10-upside.
Thomas,Michael
- NO/WR: Rookie wide receiver Michael Thomas has been
drawing plenty of raves early as the Saints’ Training Camp.
Speaking on Fantistics Insider Football on SiriusXM Fantasy
Sports Radio on Sunday ESPN.com’s Mike Triplett said, “At this
point Michael Thomas can’t help to be drafted too high (in
fantasy). He’s an exciting, upside player.” Thomas is currently
WR55 in the latest NFFC ADP, but once the preseason starts and
people get their eyes on this rookie expect that number to
skyrocket. Be cautious though there are still plenty of mouths
to feed in the Saints’ offense so his opportunities could be
somewhat limited.
Cooks,Brandin
- NO/WR: Brandin Cooks is coming off a great 2015 campaign
where he pulled in 84 passes for 1,138 yards and nine
touchdowns. Now, entering his third season the expectations are
high for the Saints’ wideout. He’s on the small side, but Cooks
possesses great playmaking ability. He scored eight touchdowns
in his final nine games last year, including scoring plays of
71, 69, and 54 yards. Don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on him
as early as Round 2.
Stewart,Jonathan
- CAR/RB: The Panthers top running back last year was
Jonathan Stewart. He averaged 76 yards per game on the ground
and scored seven touchdowns in his 13 contests. If you add in
the playoffs, he finished with 1,207 yards and 10 scores in 16
games. However, he doesn’t offer anything as a pass catcher out
of the backfield, finishing with just 20 receptions during that
span. Add in his durability issues (four years in a row he’s
missed at least games due to injury) and Stewart’s upside is
very limited. Owners will be wise to pass on the Carolina
running back and go for RB2 / RB3 with a higher ceiling and less
risk.
Newton,Cam
- CAR/QB: Carolina made its way to the Super Bowl in 2015 on
the back of MVP Cam Newton, who threw for a career-high 35
touchdowns and lit up fantasy scoreboards everywhere with his
636 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. He was easily
fantasy’s top producing quarterback. Only 40 percent of
quarterbacks to be the top producer in a season went on to
finish in the top 12 over the last 20 years and only 25 percent
of them have stayed at that No. 1 spot.
Freeman,Devonta
- ATL/RB: Once he got the opportunity to be the team’s
primary running back last year, Devonta Freeman took off for the
Falcons. During September and October last season, Freeman was
the toast of the fantasy world. However, he fizzled down the
stretch of the season as he began to wear down. In the final
eight weeks of the year he wasn’t even a top 10 back, averaging
77 yards fewer with just four scores in those seven contests.
Jones,Julio
- ATL/WR: Julio Jones finished with 136 receptions a year
ago, tied with Antonio Brown for the league lead. It marked the
third time in eight years that a wide receiver in Kyle
Shannahan’s offense earned that honored. There’s no question the
volume will be there for Jones, which is why we have him ranked
so highly here at Fantistics. The only concerns with Jones are
touchdowns and his durability. He’s only scored on six of his 24
targets inside the 10-yard line the last three years and he’s
missed games in three of the last five seasons.
Today's Fantistics Notes brought to us by
Dan Clasgens
8/07/2016
Not convinced that
Todd Gurley is a top 3 RB? We are! Consider that he
finished as a top 5 RB, despite only playing in 41% of team snaps!
Contained within our player projections software is a
notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators
that are relevant to our 2016 projections. This morning we'll take a
look at some of the Runningbacks that will be part of your 2016
draft (In no particular order):
Gurley,Todd
Production waned a little in
the 2nd half 111/444 4.0 YPC, but his schedule did toughen up
considerably (D grade) and the offense became predictable. Still lots to be encouraged
about including
his .81 Fantasy Points per attempt, 28% Red Zone success rate, and 81%
reception rate (with an impressive 9.0 YPR). Look for his biggest
increase to come in the receiving numbers, as a 80+% reception
rate warrants more than 27 targets. Still finished as a top 5 RB (non PPR), despite only playing in 41% of the team's offensive
snaps. Lots to like here despite the rebuilding of talent around
him.
Crowell,Isaiah Solid receiving numbers
out of the backfield (86% - 9.6 YPR), but under utilized as a
receiver with only 22 targets. Could be a surprise if they open
that up for him. There's not much behind him in talent, so Crowell
will continue to be unsung, yet productive.
McKinnon,Jerick Took in about 16% of the snaps behind AD
last season, and did very well averaging 5.1 YPC. However there is
little value here unless AD gets hurt or whips out the switch.
Freeman,Devonta Sure the 2nd half fall was pretty dramatic,
but lets not discount the fact that he faced some of the best
defenses against the run in the 2nd half (D+ rating). Even with
that he averaged 20 points a game over his final 3 games. Only RB
with over 1,000 rushing yards to also have over 70 receptions, and
he did that with a 75% target rate. He also posted a very
impressive 18% red zone success rate. Freeman was tied for 6th in
the league with a 76% success rate on 3rd and short. Playing
behind one of the best offensive lines in aiding the run (A), and
while he might not attain last year's lofty 321 fantasy Points, he
should be pushing 275 in PPR leagues.
Sims,Charles Was solid running behind and in compliment to
Doug Martin last season, playing in 42% of offensive snaps. 51
Receptions (73%) made him a deeper league PPR option. Benefited
from an A rated schedule in the 2nd half, and is projected to have
a B+ schedule this season.
Hyde,Carlos Should see a nice boost in receptions, caught
only 11 last year, but has been averaging 74% reception rate...so
that should increase in Chip Kelly's offense, which is expected to
be high volume. They will need to be shifty as the offensive line
does have exploitable holes for the defense.
RB
Jordan Howard - The fifth round draft pick from Indiana is
looking to become a third down, short yardage package player for
the Bears. Howard will be a threat to the workload of Langford,
but what we don’t know is how much of a threat. One thing we do
know is John Fox has only once let a running back have over 60
percent of the carries. All the signs point to a minor running
back by committee but a lot of that will be up to Howard
himself. Howard currently has an ADP of 15.07 a guy you can wait
out until the final rounds of your draft.
WE
Corey Coleman - You have sleepers, late round heros, then
enter Corey Coleman. Coleman is already making an impact at camp
for the Browns. Players and coaches have been praising his
talents all week long. While only being listed at 5’11 185 will
concern some people, his career at Baylor was very impressive.
In 2015 he lit up Big 12 defenses for 1,363 yards receiving on
74 receptions and 20 touchdowns. Production is not limited here
and the Browns need playmakers. With an ADP of 9.04 and moving
up everyday, Coleman is a guy you need to keep close tabs on
during the preseason.
RB
Alex Collins - Collins, a fifth round draft pick has been
getting an extended look with the first team early on in
training camp with Seattle. While he likely won’t be anywhere
near a workhorse back and is limited athletically but he could
jam up the position for the Seahawks. Even with a lack of short
speed burst, Collins found a way to score 20 touchdowns for
Arkansas last year. Collins is currently undraftable but a guy
were going to want to follow through preseason because his
touches may also impact the likes of Thomas Rawls and the other
backs in Seattle.
WR
Sterling Shepard - It appears the Giants are going to give
Shepard every opportunity to be the number two guy for Eli
Manning. At Oklahoma last year Shepard caught 86 balls for 1,288
yards and 11 touchdowns. The rookie still has to prove himself
in a live setting. However with all the attention going towards
Odell Beckham Jr, Eli may be looking Shepards way more than we
think right now. Especially as Shepard appears to be more of an
underneath possession type of player with big play ability. The
ADP of 8.08 feels high but the Giants need him to have a
productive year.
RB
Le’Veon Bell - The bad news, the suspension may indeed stand
(although they are publicly saying that it may not). The good
news, Bell is claiming to be 100 percent again. We all know Bell
is the top fantasy back in the world when he is healthy and not
being suspended for skipping a drug test. Yes it is encouraging
to know Bell can make jump cuts and appears to have his speed
back. However with the four game suspension he may be more risk
than reward on draft day depending on your personal preference
of draft strategy. If you can team him up with someone like
DeAngelo Williams, he could win you a championship down the
line.
WR
Tyler Boyd - The fact of the matter is Boyd, will have to
make plays for the Bengals in 2016. The rookie is going to be
called on to pick up the slack of losing Sanu and Marvin Jones.
It appears Boyd is progressing nicely as Andy Dalton was quoted
saying the rookie has made a “huge jump” from OTA’s through
training camp. Boyd has an ADP of 16.09 puts him on the bubble
of draft day decisions. We will have to wait and see how he
looks in his first preseason action before really determining
what to expect from the rookie from Pitt. Regardless the Bengals
need playmakers and Boyd will get every opportunity to make
plays.
QB
Carson Palmer - Carson was quite the feel good story of
2015. After being hurt for most of 2014, Palmer returned with
great success. Palmer threw for 4,671 yards and 35 touchdowns,
not to mention he threw for over 300 yards in 9 of his 17 games
in 2015. With the likes of Fitzgerald, Brown, and David Johnson
making plays for the Cardinals, Palmer should have similar
success in 2016. His ADP of 6.11 puts him squarely in position
for you to load up on skill guys before making him your QB1 this
year, enjoy the luxury Carson Palmer provides weekly.
WR
Kevin White - We have seen White called everything from a
beast in workouts to a real work in progress over the last
month. The Bears are obviously hoping White has a productive
year after missing his whole rookie campaign due to a foot
injury. At West Virginia, White somewhat came on to the scene
out of nowhere his senior year before dazzling scouts at the
combine with his 4.35 forty yard dash time. It will be
interesting to see how White looks in preseason action for the
Bears, it would appear he will get a lot of opportunities to
showcase his skill set before the season actually starts. With
an ADP of 7.04 which feels really fair, you may very well be
looking at a guy with huge playmaking upside the lacks the route
running tools at the moment to be consistent week to week. Let’s
just label White and a boom or bust talent for right now.
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