Bears Concerned with LB Brian Urlacher’s Knee

Even Lovie Smith no longer could blow off questions about Brian Urlacher’s sore knee after the eight-time Pro Bowl middle linebacker missed his fourth consecutive practice Sunday. ‘‘It’s always a concern when you have an injury at the end of the year and you miss some time in the offseason,’’ Smith said, referring to the sprained ligaments Urlacher suffered in his left knee in Week 17 last season. ‘‘But he should be OK.’’ Even that lightly guarded prognosis is a little disconcerting coming from Smith. His famously unbreakable optimism generally is inversely proportionate to fans’ panic. But even he couldn’t say there’s nothing to worry about.

Source: Chicago Sun-Times

From an IDP perspective Urlacher's production has been steadily dropping, and this is to be expected from a 34 year old athlete. Last season he had 19 less tackles and assists than the year before and was ranked as the 20th best LB in fantasy leagues. He's still an important clog in the Bears defense.

QB Andy Dalton, WR A.J. Green Impressive in Sunday’s Mock Game

Last season during the mock game, Andy Dalton and the rest of the Bengals offense were in the midst of a two-week crash course in Jay Gruden’s scheme. Dalton was also trying to find his voice as the leader in the huddle. Fast forward to one year later and Sunday’s mock game at Paul Brown Stadium where a confident Dalton has control of the offense. After starting 0 for 4 with an interception, Dalton was 14 of 16 for 190 yards and two touchdowns the rest of the way as the Black team defeated the White team 14-6. “Everybody was making big plays. You see the catches that Armon (Binns) made and then you see Brandon Tate gets the touchdown pass,” Dalton said. “We’ve got receivers flying all over the field. I trust all of those guys, so it doesn’t matter who’s out there.” The one thing the coaching staff didn’t like was that the Black offense, which was made up of first- and second-string players, came out lethargic. As was the case plenty of times last year, a play by A.J. Green shook the unit out of its malaise. Green finished with 3 receptions for 74 yards, all of which came on the third drive by the Black. On the first play of the series, Green went down the left sideline and caught the ball near the numbers while beating coverage by rookies George Iloka and Tony Dye.

Source: Cincinnati Enquirer

Last season Green tied Julio Jones for 3rd with seven 40+ yard plays. The difference between Green and Julio Jones is his red zone presence, Green had a 60% TD rate when targeted within the 20 yard like, while Jones was 33%. Green has an overall ADP of 21.

WR Miles Austin Could Miss A Week With Hamstring Injury

Miles Austin is dealing with hamstring issues again, and the Dallas Cowboys plan to be careful with their top receiver even though they don't think the problem is serious. Coach Jason Garrett said Austin will miss at least a few days, and maybe a week, because of a strained hamstring. The two-time Pro Bowl receiver missed six games last season because of problems with both hamstrings.

Source: USA Today

Austin's injury highlights how the Cowboys are dangerously thin at the Wide Receiver position this season. Dez Bryant's issues are widely known...3rd on the team depth chart is unproven Kevin Ogletree with unheralded rookie Danny Coale (5th round) behind him....Hence the risk of Tony Romo from a fantasy perspective this season.

DL Cliff Avril Signs Franchise Tender, Reports to Lions Camp

Detroit Lions defensive end Cliff Avril signed his one-year franchise tender and reported to the team today. Avril sat out the first eight days of training camp after he and the Lions failed to reach an agreement on a long-term contract by the July 16 deadline. He said at the time he was planning to miss the start of camp to avoid injury and would report sometime after his son’s first birthday Aug. 3. Avril led the Lions with 11 sacks and six forced fumbles last year – both career highs.

Source: Detroit Free Press

Avril is ranked as the 15th best DL in our IDP rankings. Arvil had 8 sacks last year, and we are projecting that will increase to 10 this season. 

WR Greg Jennings Suffers Concussion in Sunday’s Scrimmage

Both Green Bay Packers left tackle Marshall Newhouse and wide receiver Greg Jennings sustained concussions during Friday’s Family Night scrimmage, coach Mike McCarthy said after the team’s practice on Sunday night. While it was widely assumed Newhouse had some type of ailment after walking off the field alongside team physician John Gray with about 10 minutes left in the scrimmage, Jennings’ injury came as more of a surprise. Both players missed Sunday’s practice, but McCarthy wouldn’t rule either one out of Thursday’s first preseason game at San Diego.

Source: Green Bay Press-Gazette

Concussions are a big deal these days, it goes without saying that another during the season might cost Jennings some significant time. Jennings is a bit underrated because of a 2nd half injury, but concussions are counted as strikes now a days.

Dexter McCluster Seeing Action Mostly at Receiver

The Chiefs list Dexter McCluster as a running back, but he’s seldom in the backfield. McCluster participates in drills with the wide receivers, not the running backs. In team work, he lines up as a slot receiver in most formations and splits wide in others. He occasionally gets a carry on a sweep or a reverse and sees work as a quarterback in the wildcat. And he’s also a prime candidate to return kicks and punts.

Although most of his receptions last season were out of the backfield, McCluster registered an impressive 72% completion ratio. With Jamal Charles back in the fold, his backfield action will be limited this season. At this point, he's only a consideration in deeper leagues or leagues that count punt/kickoff returns.

Jets’ New Running Scheme Built for Shonn Greene

The Jets had great success as a zone-running team in the past, so Tony Sparano has been careful not to discard that. All good running teams use elements of both zone and gap schemes. But the tell is — when it’s a crunch situation, what will the Jets dial up? The answer, Sparano says, is the gap-scheme runs that put their physicality front and center. “That’s what it is made for,” Shonn Greene, the designated “bell cow,” said. “To be physical, downhill, hit your head on the goalpost.” Sparano, a former offensive line coach, said his plan has been to create a system that fits the personnel, both on the line and in the backfield. Greene has fared well in zone schemes in college and his first three NFL seasons, but the 226-pound power back is no doubt well-suited for downhill, between-the tackles gap-scheme runs. Look for a lot of powers, counters and traps, running backs coach Anthony Lynn said. “Shonn can run through the smoke,” Sparano said, using a favorite expression of his. “He is a guy who can get square, and he can make a hole. And when it looks muddy in there, he can run through it and all of a sudden create 3, 4 yards going forward. He is built right for that style of football.”

Source: Newark Star-Ledger

I am not a big Shonn Greene fan, but at his current 7th round ADP... he's a very enticing value. Consider that he was the 12th most productive RB in the 2nd half of 2011.

WR Denarius Moore Misses Practice with Hamstring Injury

Wide receiver Denarius Moore (hamstring) was one of five players who missed practice Sunday. Dennis Allen admitted that he is concerned about Moore’s injury. “It’s a concern,” Allen said, “because it’s been a nagging type of deal. So, we’ve got to make sure that we’re diligent in the rehab process and make sure we continue to get that strengthened so that it’s not an issue during the season and we’re not dealing with this on an every-day or every-week basis.” Moore has been on and off the field in recent days. On Sunday, he watched the entire practice from afar. He said that he reported to camp at 100 percent on the heels of a hamstring injury at a mini camp in June.

Source: Contra Costa Times

Moore showed flashes of superior athletic ability last season, but he just couldn't stay healthy. Big Upside as evidenced by his 18.7 YPR and 2.73 fantasy Points per reception (non PPR), however his 43% completion ratio leaves a lot to be desired. That % did improve once Palmer entered the picture (52%) and we're projecting improvement from there.

RB Taiwan Jones, DL Richard Seymour Injured Sunday

Running back Taiwan Jones suffered a hamstring injury and Richard Seymour tweaked a knee in practice. Dennis Allen said he is awaiting word on the severity of Jones’ injury. Allen said Seymour was held out as more of a precautionary measure.

Source: Contra Costa Times

Taiwan Jones is a sleeper candidate if Darren McFadden proves unhealthy this season. McFadden is running at full speed in camp and there are no plans to limit his touches this preseason.

WR Terrell Owens To Work Out for Seahawks Today

The Seahawks confirmed late Sunday that they are bringing in veteran wide receiver Terrell Owens for a workout on Monday, as Seattle continues to search for another pass-catcher. Owens, 38, is seen by many as a star far past his prime, but Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider apparently are looking to see whether Owens might have one more year left in him. He hasn’t played in the NFL since 2010, having torn his ACL in the 2011 offseason and missing that year.

Source: Seattle Post-Intelligencer

The Seahawks released Antonio Bryant yesterday...so technically they do have an open spot. This might be Owens' last chance to find a team willing to put up with the TO show.

QBs Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Locker Continue to Battle in Titans’ Camp

Quarterbacks Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker are expected to split first-team reps on Monday when the Titans practice against the Falcons in Dalton, Ga. In Sunday’s team drills, Hasselbeck completed 10-of-16 passes with one interception. On the interception, Chris Hawkins tipped the ball and Al Afalava picked it off. Locker went 11-for-17.  “I think we’ve put a lot on them. I think there’ s a lot going on,” coach Mike Munchak said. “We’re asking them to check a lot of plays and check protections. So it’s like we’re out here playing a game. We’re asking them to do a lot of things. “And like we’ve said, they’re not necessarily sure what they’re going to face or what period they’ll even be in for, so I think they’ve handled it well.”

Source: Nashville Tennessean

Locker is of course the guy with the upside. He's a skilled player who possesses a cannon for an arm and speedy legs that make him a quite mobile quarterback.

WR Kenny Britt Will Meet with NFL Officials Today

Tennessee Titans wide receiver Kenny Britt has a meeting scheduled in New York on Monday at the NFL league office, the fourth-year wideout said Sunday night. Britt did not indicate if commissioner Roger Goodell will be attending the meeting. The Titans' wide receiver was arrested July 20 for suspicion of DUI and informed consent after he attempted to enter a gate at Fort Campbell in Kentucky. "What I expect tomorrow is a lot of questions," Britt said Sunday outside his locker. Britt was arrested several times in 2011 during the lockout.

Source: CBS Sports

There most likely will be some type of suspension handed down...which might coincide opportunely with his return from several knee procedures. According to Paul Kuharshy from EPSN, Britt's "rehab has been intense and I watched him run straight lines, figure eights and laterally late last week. He looked smooth and comfortable. Mike Munchak said Saturday the team would get more aggressive with Britt and he’d start cutting. How he reacts to it over the next couple weeks would give the team a good gauge for his readiness."

August 4th, 2012

Hi Folks,

Earlier this week we posted our 2011 Player Projections track record. It's a record that we openly post yearly (click to see 10 year history). It's keeps a score card on our ability to predict whether or not a player will produce at a higher or lower level (on a per game basis) than the previous season.  Since 1999, on average we have predicted the fantasy direction on 8 out of 10 NFL players. Considering that a blind scenario would produce 5 out of 10, as a sports statistician, it's a track record that I am sheepishly quite proud of. It's what differentiates our premium product from the rest of the projections that are published either in magazines or elsewhere on the internet.

Our crystal ball is simply a quantitative regression analysis program that considers 27 indicators such as target rates, completion rates, red zone success, yards after the catch, yards per carry, passes dropped, first down success rates, 1st down catches/run on 3rd down...and regresses it against a players history. It further incorporates indicators such as offensive line ratings, run/pass tendencies of coaches, playing time opportunity, Injury quotient, and finally it incorporates the strength of the opponent that the player will be facing. And this is just first stage of what becomes the 2012 Player Projections.  The second critical stage of the Fantistics Player Projections is based on the qualitative information that we hear coming out of camps and what we see during the the preseason games. This is where I tweak the projections from now until the opening kickoff.

Making sure that you have the most relevant and predictive information available to you on draft day is the best part of my responsibilities here at Fantistics. Once again, thanks for letting us be a part of your annual draft prep ritual. - Anthony

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This morning's insight and player projection notes is brought to us by our Senior Analyst Drew Dinkmeyer:

Kenny Britt - It wasn’t a particularly good news week for Kenny Britt’s fantasy value. Earlier in the week it was announced Britt had an upcoming meeting scheduled with the commissioner to address his offseason DUI and on Friday the Titans head coach Mike Munchak confirmed Britt would be on a snap count in his return from offseason knee surgery. Britt has the talent to be a top 10 WR as evidenced by the 12 TD’s he’s scored over the last two seasons despite starting just 10 of those games. Britt’s big play ability (17.5 Y/R) should allow him to be productive despite the snap count, but a likely two-game suspension will sap some of the raw totals. The good news for those looking to invest in Britt this year is all the negative news will likely lead to a drop in Britt’s ADP. He’s currently going inside the Top 80 and being drafted as high-end WR3, but as the news continues to pile up I’d expect the ADP to push closer to the top 100. Even with all the negative news around Britt it’s hard to deny the talent and if he can be drafted as a back-end WR3, I believe the upside will be well worth the risk.

James Starks - After an offseason of glowing reports from the Packers RBs coach, respected Packers beat reporter Bob McGrinn lit into James Starks in a column reviewing Thursday’s practice. McGrinn noted Starks has shown no improvement in the passing game, either blocking or receiving, and hasn’t shown much growth as a runner either. McGrinn went as far as to say Alex Green, who is being brought along slowly off knee surgery, has looked like a more dynamic runner. Starks struggled in the 2^nd half seeing his YPC drop to 3.7 and failed to top 80 rush yards or find the end zone in any game after Week 2. The Packers, despite constantly playing from ahead, only ran 39% of the time inside the Red Zone last year and a big part of that was because of the ineffectiveness of their RB’s. Starks 5% Red Zone Conversion rate (1 TD on 20 red zone touches) leaves plenty to be desired. While I’m inclined to lean on the coaching staffs and management’s confidence in Starks (not bringing in competition in the offseason), the Packers offense isn’t one that provides much value for RB’s. Aaron Rodgers had as many Rush TD’s last season as Starks and Ryan Grant combined. Starks 5^th-8^th rd ADP may look like a bargain for a starting RB (with the perception of little competition) in one of the NFL’s best offenses, but the Packers game plan and Starks skill-set is more likely to make that pick a value-trap.

 Chris Johnson - With NFL Network live at the Titans training camp on Friday both Charlie Casserly and Ian Rappaport lauded Chris Johnson for looking like a different back in practice with both remarking that he looked like the Chris Johnson of old. Johnson’s coming off a disjointed and disappointing 2011 campaign that saw him reach the end zone just 4 times and saw his YPC fall-off all the way to 4.0. The drop in YPC wasn’t exactly unprecedented as Johnson followed up his 2000 yard campaign in 2009 with a 4.3 YPC average, a drop-off of 1.5 YPC from his career season. With consecutive years of deteriorating performance Johnson enters the 2012 season with questions over whether he’s in decline or whether 2011 can be written off due to a holdout and lack of conditioning. I owned Johnson in a few leagues last year and my frustrations with Johnson stemmed from what I deemed as a lack of effort. In favorable matchups against the Panthers, Bucs, and Bills Johnson totaled 473 rush yards and 3 Rush TD’s, but in any neutral or difficult matchup Johnson lacked burst and often shied away from contact. If you owned Johnson last year it’s hard to reinvest in a player you watched quit on the season, but you also know that Johnson looked like a guy that still had the potential to be elite. The glowing reports early about work ethic and attitude are encouraging for a player who averaged 4.8 YPC in the 2^nd half of the season. We currently have Johnson ranked as the 8^th best RB option, but if he runs with renewed vigor in the preseason there is some room to rise in the rankings.

David Garrard - There has been no shortage of reports about the Dolphins QB battle early on in camp. On Thursday it was revealed that rookie Ryan Tannehill had earned a share of 1^st team snaps and the coaching staff went on to suggest that Tannehill could enter the season as the primary backup. On Friday, Peter King of Sports Illustrated came out with raving reviews about Garrard indicating that the practice King had sat in on of Garrard’s was more impressive than Peyton Manning’s in Denver and that members of the Dolphins confirmed to King that Garrard has consistently been the most impressive option. Garrard and Matt Moore are pretty similar options from a fantasy and real life perspective. They each average about 6.5 Yards per attempt with about 60% completion percentages and about 11.5 yards per completion. They each can use their legs a bit for fantasy purposes and tend to be low yardage/low turnover QB’s. While Moore flashed some growth in the 2^nd half last year (5 quality games), the Dolphins willingness to not only draft a rookie in the 1^st round but to bring in veteran competition shows their lack of faith in his ability. With perhaps the worst receiving corps in fantasy football, neither figures to have much value outside of spot-starting in 2 QB leagues, but the early reports appear to be in Garrard’s favor.

LeSean McCoy - After seeing just 42 snaps in his rookie campaign Dion Lewis figures to play a bit bigger role in the Eagles offense this year with the departure of Ronnie Brown. Fellow Pitt alum LeSean McCoy noted as much on Friday when he suggested he probably should take a few more snaps off this year. McCoy was on the field for a high majority of snaps last year and his 320 touch workload ranked 4^th in the NFL. Given McCoy’s YPC dropped to 4.0 in the 2^nd half of the season, there may be some merit to getting him a few additional snaps on the sidelines. McCoy produced just 1 below average start all season and it came in the last game of the year when McCoy left early with an injury. There’s no reason to get concerned about any drop-off in snaps as the effects on McCoy’s touches would be pretty limited. Look for Dion Lewis, who impressed us at Pitt, to pick up 60-80 carries on the season, but he’s no threat to McCoy’s role or his production.

Peyton Hillis - In NFL.com’s training camp review of the Chiefs, posted on Thursday afternoon Bucky Brooks noted that Peyton Hillis was running with the same authority he did in Cleveland and that he was also demonstrating soft hands out of the backfield. Brooks suggested the strong performance in camp could lead to the Chiefs creating a special sub-set of packages in order to feature Hillis. With Jamaal Charles coming off a torn ACL it’s not surprising the Chiefs went out this offseason and got insurance nor would it be surprising if they leaned on that insurance a bit more until Charles settles in. Romeo Crennel coached teams haven’t been known for committee approaches as Reuben Droughns and Jamal Lewis were both used as workhorse backs when Crennel coached in Cleveland, but admittedly that was a bit of a different time in the NFL. If Charles is healthy, Hillis posts no real threat to Charles (6.1 YPC career average), but Hillis’ presence does make me wonder how big of a workload the Chiefs intend to give Charles this year. Ultimately, I think Charles health will dictate whatever workload Hillis is afforded and with Charles almost a full year away from the ACL injury, I think he’ll be just fine. The most important factor in my mind will be whether the Chiefs give Hillis’ bruising style the goal-line carries, which is something we’ll be monitoring during the preseason.

Jonathan Baldwin - In the same training camp notes from Bucky Brooks he noted the emergence of Jonathan Baldwin in training camp was easing the absence of Dwayne Bowe. Brooks noted Baldwin’s elite athleticism and noted, perhaps most importantly, that Baldwin was beginning to transition that athleticism into production in camp. Baldwin’s getting to go against front-line competition in Brandon Flowers and Stanford Routt everyday so it’s exciting to hear that his physical skills are starting to take over. I’m a huge Baldwin fan and look at him as a legitimate breakout candidate because of his size and red zone ability this season. While Baldwin posted an underwhelming 40% reception rate last year, I think some of that blame should fall on a third of his targets coming from the ineffective and inaccurate Tyler Palko (59% completion). Baldwin’s progression will be something to monitor in the preseason.

Denarius Moore - Denarius Moore resumed practicing after missing a bit of time with a balky hamstring. Moore racked up 618 yards on just 33 receptions in his rookie campaign that included 3 100-yard games, 5 quality games and 3 of those coming in his last 5 games with Carson Palmer. Palmer’s willingness to stretch the field coupled with the Moore’s downfield ability has many (including us) projecting a nice breakout campaign from Moore. His reception rate (43%) left something to be desired but given the length of those attempts, a lower reception rate is expected. As Anthony notes in the projection software the rate improved to 52% with Carson Palmer at the helm and as Palmer finds familiarity with Moore the numbers should only improve. With an ADP between the 7^th and 10^th round Moore currently looks like a fairly valued commodity.

Justin Blackmon - The Jags offense looked to be making big strides on draft day with the addition of Justin Blackmon but as training camp starts they don’t have Blackmon or Maurice Jones-Drew in camp. Blackmon and the Jags reportedly aren’t close to a deal and the Jaguars have already ruled him out for the first preseason game. Blackmon was a force in college averaging 9.3 receptions 132 yards and 1.5 TD’s per game as he used his big hands and physical frame to shed tackles and consistently separate from defenders. He won’t have quite the same level of physical dominance at the pro level nor will he be in the same type of explosive offense he enjoyed in college, but he’s considered a high-end WR prospect. Rookie WR’s historically have struggled to make an impact in the NFL with AJ Green’s/Julio Jones' 2011 campaign being the aberrations and the time Blackmon is missing in camp to learn the playbook and build a rapport can only be considered a hindrance to his success this year. His 9^th-11^th round ADP is probably fairly priced, but I’m unlikely to own Blackmon in redraft leagues with guys like Doug Baldwin and Titus Young (especially) going around him.

Jake Locker - The position battle between Jake Locker and Matt Hasselbeck has understandably drawn a lot of attention for fantasy owners. Locker registered quality games in 2 of his 3 starts and got fantasy owners excited with his ability to contribute with his legs as he averaged over 18 rush yards per start. Locker is a mobile big-armed QB who is willing to push the ball down the field, making the Titans offense a bit more explosive and fantasy friendly, but he struggles with accuracy (51.5% completion %) and in the last two days of practice he’s reportedly gone just 9-30. Meanwhile Matt Hasselbeck has gone 26-31 in that stretch of practice. The Titans want Locker to emerge as the starter but the competition is a legitimate one that will play out over the course of preseason. These early practices can be telling, but certainly won’t close the competition in anyway. Even if Hasselbeck does open the season as the starter we expect Locker to emerge at some point. Many are touting Locker’s upside with an intriguing receiver corps as a nice backup to start the season, but we’d rather see him drafted in 3 QB leagues at this point.

Michael Crabtree - Crabtree has missed 6 straight practices with a right calf injury and is already considered Questionable for the preseason opener. Preseason injuries are something that are becoming an annual tradition for Crabtree, who finally showed signs of putting things together in the 2^nd half of last season. Crabtree finished the year with 73 catches for 880 yards but 43-566 came in the 2^nd half. Crabtree posted strong reception rates (63.5%) throughout the season, but reached the end zone just 4 times. Crabtree lead the receiving corps in red zone targets (17), but wasn’t nearly as efficient as Vernon Davis in the red zone. With increased competition in the receiving game for Crabtree this year (Manningham, Moss, AJ Jenkins), we’re keeping expectations in check for a huge breakout, but we do think he takes another step forward. Being drafted currently as a top 30 WR, we have Crabtree as mildly overvalued early on in draft season.

Chandler Jones - The Boston Globe is reporting Patriots rookie Chandler Jones is expected to open the season as the starting right end. Many draft experts thought the Patriots got a steal with the freakishly athletic DE out of Syracuse and so far all the early reports in training camp have backed up the consensus opinion. Our early projections on Jones having him challenging for double digit sacks making him an attractive defensive end option in leagues with heavy big-play scoring.

Mike Goodson - One of my favorite RB sleepers this year is the new backup RB in Oakland: Mike Goodson. It’s not going out on much of a limb to hone in on Darren McFadden’s backup, given McFadden has yet to play more than 13 games in a single season, but I think Mike Goodson is a pretty skilled back who has been hidden in Carolina’s deep rotation. When Goodson has gotten a look he’s been solid, averaging 4.0 YPC in 125 career attempts while also hauling in 43 receptions in 28 games played. He has been used primarily as a 3^rd down back so there’s some question as to whether he can carry the load, but with Taiwain Jones as the only threat to a backup role (and Jones is clearly not built for a full-time role), Goodson should get the opportunity when McFadden inevitably goes down. He certainly won’t have the impact Michael Bush did as he’s simply not as skilled, but the Raiders offense is pretty RB centric and Goodson’s ability to contribute in the passing game as well as the running game will allow him to post solid total yardage in games McFadden isn’t able to suit up. Currently going in the 10^th-14^th rounds, I think Goodson is a nice late-round gamble given McFadden’s rather consistent injury history.

Aaron Hernandez - Hernandez was reportedly working late after practice on Thursday as he was getting in reps taking handoffs from Tom Brady. We saw Hernandez used as a change-of-pace runner down the stretch as he racked up 13 carries for 115 yards in the Patriots final 6 games of the regular season and post-season. With Brandon Lloyd adding another deep threat to the passing game the Patriots will need to be creative to get all their skill position players hands on the ball and using Hernandez on some hand-offs is just another way to do it. Hernandez has all the talent in the world to be an elite TE and join the group with Gronkowski and Graham but playing in New England is going to limit that upside. We see Heranndez taking a very slight step back this year as the Patriots offense incorporates another mouth to feed (Lloyd). As a result, through no fault of his own, he’s mildly overvalued with his current 4^th round ADP.

Antonio Brown - Predictably with Mike Wallace holding out, Antonio Brown has been noted as the go-to receiver for Ben Roethlisberger in camp.  What most people don’t realize is this really isn’t anything new. Brown received 10 more targets than Wallace last year, averaging 7.3 targets/game and finished just 3 catches and 85 yards shy of Wallace’s production on the season. Wallace did score 6 more TD’s and saw 3 more red zone targets, but Brown and Wallace’s production and opportunities almost mirrored one another. Wallace’s presence will be an important component in Brown’s ability to replicate his 2011 season as Brown benefited significantly from Wallace drawing double-teams, but the loss of Wallace would also likely open up an even greater share of the work, resulting in Brown being less effective per play but still posting strong totals. If Wallace does come back, especially late in camp, I think it ends up being the best case scenario (and most likely) for Brown as Wallace draws some attention but Brown benefits from his extra work in Todd Haley’s new offense. Owners have started to treat Brown as the Top 25 WR he is of late, but in early drafts he was looking like a really nice value pick. We’re projecting growth in Brown’s production specifically in the TD production which was unusually low for a player of his skill and opportunity last year.

You can hear Drew Dinkmeyer and Dan Clasgens on our Fantistics Insider Football Show airing on Sirius XM radio, Sundays from 10-noon:

August 3rd, 2012

RB Chris Wells to Resume Practicing Next Week, Could Play in Third Preseason Contest

If things go according to plan, Ken Whisenhunt said running back Beanie Wells would be able to play in the Oakland game, which would be the Cards’ first preseason home game. There is a long time before then, however, and nothing is set in stone. Wells is still on track to start practicing some next week.

Source: AZCardinals.com

Wells value continues to plummet while he's out. Currently he has a 7th round ADP. The Cards have changed many components of their offensive line this season, as they had one of the worst pass protection lines in the league last year (31st in sacks allowed). Their right side of the line is expected to improve with the FA addition of Adam Snyder...but their only bright spot is the potential development of 4th rounder Bobby Massie. Other than that, they will at best be middle of the road when keeping the ball on the ground this season....and little if any improvement is expected in protecting the QB.

QB Joe Flacco Receiving Rave Reviews About camp Performance

Teammates, coaches and beat reporters rave about Joe Flacco's training camp. Throwing the ball has never been a problem. Flacco has one of the strongest arms in football. He has won playoff games on the road. But this is clearly his best training camp in terms of focus and execution. In camp, Flacco has taken even more of a leadership role on offense. He continues to suggest to coaches he wants the offense to be more aggressive in the latter stages of games. Instead of trying to run out the clock with a running offense when the Ravens have a fourth-quarter lead, he wants them to attack more with the pass. For more than a decade, the Ravens have been constructed to win with defense and good running. Flacco wants the Ravens not to be as cautious. Because the Ravens' defense is so good, Flacco thinks the Ravens should go for the jugular. Instead of sitting on 17-3 leads that could end up being 20-17 victories, Flacco wants more offense and more points. Not a bad idea. He also suggests more passes on early downs, so the offense isn't stuck with too many tough third-down situations. From what he hears and what he sees from Flacco this summer, Harbaugh believes his quarterback will have a breakout year.

Source: ESPN.com

There might be something to this, as the Ravens haven't had much success in advancing in the playoffs with their defensive game plan. While Flacco has been the model of consistency, it's considered mediocrity by both football and fantasy football standards. Since 2009, he's thrown for 3613, 3622, and 3610 yards and averaged between 20-25 TDs. From a pure passing standpoint, rookie Cam Newton threw for 4,051 yards last season.

WR Torrey Smith Becoming Complete Receiver

Ozzie Newsome started rebuilding the receiving corps last season by drafting Torrey Smith. Smith has exceptional speed and was very good on deep routes. Now, he has worked on his short routes and crossing patterns, and he is a threat on all routes.

Source: ESPN.com

Smith had a great rookie season, averaging 2.41 points per reception (non PPR), and 16.8 Yards per catch. Consistency was a bit of an issue as there were only 5 games in which he was targeted with more than 7 passes. Will need to improve on his sub 50% completion ratio to see more of those targets. Also consider that he was a perfect 7 for 7 in scoring TDs when targeted inside of the 20.

QB Jay Cutler Sees Potential for Rookie WR Alshon Jeffery to Be a Dominant Force

Jay Cutler isn't counting on Alshon Jeffery to make an impact like A.J. Green had as a rookie with the Cincinnati Bengals, but that doesn't mean the Chicago Bears quarterback isn't expecting big things from the young receiver. "I don't think we're going to necessarily need that kind of production out of Alshon," Cutler said Thursday on "The Waddle & Silvy Show" on ESPN 1000. "I think he's fully capable of that kind of production, but we'll pick and choose where we use him, what he's best suited for. In the coming years I can see him being just a dominant force out there." Green, the fourth pick in the 2011 NFL draft, made an immediate impact with the Bengals last season, catching 65 passes for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns. With Brandon Marshall joining the offense this season, the Bears don't need Jeffery, a second-round pick out of South Carolina, to put up big numbers, at least right away.

Source: ESPN.com

Alston is a big receiver at 6'4", but at 230 pounds his weight has come into question. He doesn't have the speed to separate deep, and will need to do so on the inside/outside routes. Rated as the 6th best receiver in the draft, and was taken 45th overall....so there certainly is some talent that the Bears expect to exploit here. We'll be watching him closely this preseason.
 

WR Eric Decker Still Limited with Groin Injury

It is another long-time training camp tradition — the Week 2 caravan into the trainer's room for players with a variety of muscle strains. The Broncos have been hit hard this week with the wide receiver position taking a particular pounding. Wide receivers Eric Decker (groin), D'Andre Goodwin (foot), Tyler Grisham (knee) and Greg Orton (ankle) all sat out Thursday's practice. Decker was in uniform, but didn't do much beyond some individual work.

Source: Denver Post

 The promise of a Manning led offense has propelled Decker into the mid 6th round in most drafts, and with good reason. His 2.43 Points per reception last season is amazing, thanks to his 60% Red Zone success rate. He's a high upside receiver in 2012.

Peyton Manning Impressed with WR Demaryius Thomas

Though wide receiver Eric Decker appeared to be quarterback Peyton Manning's favorite target most of the first week of training camp, Decker did not fully participate Thursday. That opened the door for Demaryius Thomas. Decker sat out the team drills but went through individual drills. Meanwhile, Manning said Thomas has had a good camp, even when Decker was practicing before injuring his groin on Wednesday. "He's a guy we're going to feature," Manning said of Thomas. "His size and strength and speed just allow you to do certain things with him that other players just can't do. I thought Demaryius, these past two days, has made some good plays, done some good things with the ball after the catch, which is what we're going to need."

Source: Denver Post

Thomas averaged 18 yards per reception with 485 yards and 3 TDs in the 2nd half last year...and that was with Tebow under center...but his early 4th round ADP is going to be rather costly.

Lions’ Coach Jim Schwartz Says RB Jahvid Best is Week-to-Week

No one can give a timetable on when Jahvid Best will return to football, but this much is clear: It won’t be anytime soon. “The only thing I’d say is we’re measuring Jahvid in weeks, not days,” Detroit Lions coach Jim Schwartz said after practice today. “He’s not a day-to-day. A lot of these guys are day-to-day. We’re measuring his progress in weeks.” Best has not been cleared for contact since he suffered his second concussion in two months last October in a Week 6 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. He finished last season on injured reserve, took part in organized team activities and minicamp this spring, and is currently on the physically unable to perform list.

Source: Detroit Free Press

With issues surrounding both Best and Leshoure...Kevin Smith is starting to look like a value sleeper pick to us.

TE Jermichael Finley Not Concerned with Slow Start

Don’t count Jermichael Finley among those concerned about his slow start. Five months after signing a two-year, $14-million contract, the Green Bay Packers tight end hasn’t made much of an impact so far in training camp. He has yet to make an eye-catching play and has dropped at least one pass that could be categorized as routine. “I’m not worried about a fast start, I promise you,” Finley said after practice on Wednesday. Finley missed two full practices and was limited in one other because of a concussion he sustained on the first day of camp. “Jermichael’s on track; he’s progressing at a rate that is OK,” Packers tight ends coach Jerry Fontenot said. “I think he has a ways to go just like everybody else. The volume of information that we install in our offense is pretty hefty, and the tight ends are asked to do a lot of different jobs in our offense. So that being said, the more time that he does spend on the field, the better for everybody, and that includes everybody else in the tight end position.”

Source: Green Bay Press-Gazette

Finley is an athletic freak of nature, but he just hasn't put it all together. Last season's 59% completion ratio behind the best QB in football, was abysmal. Especially when you consider that he averaged almost 80% the previous 2 seasons. WE still believe that he's in for a nice comeback season.

DE J.J. Watt To Miss Time with Elbow Injury

Defensive end J.J. Watt evolved into a for-real overnight sensation as a rookie in 2011, and he reported for his second Texans training camp, in his words, “much bigger, much stronger and much faster.” But the additional size, muscle mass and foot speed couldn’t get Watt through the first week of practice unscathed. His left arm got caught in a bad place during a morning 11-on-11 session Thursday, and he suffered a dislocated elbow that will sideline him for the near term. The news could have been a lot worse, though. A relieved head coach Gary Kubiak went so far as to suggest the Texans had “dodged a bullet,” just as they had previously with Andre Johnson and Duane Brown. “We’re very, very fortunate,” Kubiak said. “When it dislocates, there are some other things that can happen, but they didn’t. The great news is he’s going to be fine.”

Source: Houston Chronicle

Watt is currently ranked as the 7th best defensive lineman by our IDP guru Joe Everett. As noted in our player projections software, Watt who was stuck at the 5-technique, notched a surprising high amount of tackle last season. More of the same is expected in 2012. 

Jaguars Continue Contract Talks with WR Justin Blackmon, RB Maurice Jones-Drew

As the holdout of Jaguars first-round pick Justin Blackmon reaches Day 9 on Friday, talks are continuing between the two sides. Jaguars general manager Gene Smith said he is having “healthy communication’’ with Todd France, Blackmon’s agent. Smith said that was a positive but it remains to be seen if the communication will lead to a breakthrough in the talks that will get Blackmon, a receiver and the last unsigned first-round pick in the NFL, into camp any time soon. Smith also said he has talked to veteran running back Maurice Jones-Drew, the team’s other holdout, although he wouldn’t disclose when the conversation took place. Jones-Drew, who led the NFL in rushing last year, wants a new contract. The Jaguars want him to play out the final two years of his contract at $9.4 million.

Source: Florida Times-Union

The big story line here is MJD and what to make out of his hold out. Many including myself believe that MJD is willing to sit out the season if the Jags don't re-negotiate his contract. Up to now the Jags owner has been unwilling to consider a new contract, and most outlets are still reporting that the two sides have not spoken regarding the issue. From a fantasy perspective, history is not on the side of holdouts...and we're getting a little leery of MJD as a mid first round selection. 

Chiefs DB Brandon Flowers Out with Foot Bruise

Cornerback Brandon Flowers has a bruised foot and didn’t practice with the Chiefs this morning but coach Romeo Crennel said Flowers wouldn’t be out of the lineup long. “He probably will not work (in this afternoon’s practice) and we’ll treat it and rest it and then he’ll get back out there pretty soon, hopefully,’’ Crennel said. Flowers was injured in Tuesday night’s practice. He was taken off the field and to the locker room before the end of practice.

Source: Kansas City Star

Flowers is the Chiefs best corner, but that doesn't always translate to success in fantasy football IDP leagues. Flowers is outside of our top 30.

Vikes’ Coach Leslie Frazier Singing Praises of TE Kyle Rudolph

Kyle Rudolph is in many ways a perfect target for a young quarterback who could use a security blanket in the early stages of his development. Quarterback Christian Ponder will look often for play-making wide receiver Percy Harvin this season, I'm sure, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Rudolph finishes the season as his most frequent target. Why not? Rudolph is 6-foot-6 with 34-inch arms and bigger hands (10 3/4-inch) than new Vikings left tackle Matt Kalil (10 3/8th). I know we've had fun with discussion of long arms and hand size relative to left tackles, but for a tight end it means Rudolph has extraordinary range to reach and catch the ball. He's a balltrap that last season dropped only one of the 37 passes thrown his way, according to ESPN Stats & Information. He caught 26 of them, including three touchdowns. "He's a guy that has a chance to be special," coach Leslie Frazier said when we spoke Thursday morning. "He works very hard and is very talented, there's no question about that. But the way he can catch the football is second-to-none. ... His catching radius is amazing. If Christian gets it close to him, he knows that Kyle is going to come up with the football. That gives him a lot of confidence."

Source: ESPN.com

Rudolph showed signs of becoming a fantasy significant player in '11, but only averaged 7.7 YPR in the second half...no where to go but up for the 2nd year tandem...and a consideration in deeper leagues that start 2 TEs.

RB Mark Ingram Looks Healthy in Another Solid Practice

Mark Ingram had another strong practice for the New Orleans Saints on Thursday, and he’s looking awfully healthy after offseason toe and knee surgeries. At the start of camp last week, Ingram’s participation was being limited every other day. But he practiced fully on both Wednesday and Thursday – both of which were fairly physical sessions in full pads. Ingram looked especially good on a screen pass in team drills, showing both his speed and power as he gained extra yards after the catch. The team hasn’t done any live tackling, so he can’t be fully evaluated yet. But the second-year pro looks generally strong, fast and healthy, which is a good sign.

Source: The Times-Picayune

This is one of those dreaded RBBC situations, that wasn't very fantasy conducive last year (other than Sproles)...and likely will not be this year either. Ingram doesn't catch many if any, balls out of the backfield. He does however have red zone presence...succeeding on 15% of his touches within the 20 last season...but with Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Chris Ivory in the mix...there just aren't enough touches to go around.

WR Santonio Holmes Limited by General Soreness

Santonio Holmes didn’t participate in anything more than “extended warmups” today with the strength and conditioning coach due to “a lot of soreness in the body” from "a lot of running,” he said. He offered no specific injury. “It takes a few days to get adjusted to being back in camp and wearing shoulder pads and getting back in football shape,” said Holmes, who didn't put a timetable on when he would return full go to practice. Holmes, who has had more massages this offseason than in the past, has welcomed Sparano’s fast tempo in practice. “I think the tempo is wonderful,” Holmes said. “It gives us an insight to how the game’s going to be played from the start. He didn’t want us to come in and work (and) get into shape. That’s what we have the offseason for. He wants us full go, 100 mph every day. And that’s what we have to prove to him.”

Source: New York Daily News

There just isn't any chemistry between Holmes and Sanchez. In fact their completion percentage has dropped every season since they have been together. Not sure how they fix this...but if you are taking Holmes in his 10th round ADP, consider that he only posted 2 Quality Games in 2011. 

K Nate Kaeding Finishes Rehabbing Knee Injury

Nate Kaeding seems ready to put last year's knee injury behind him. The Chargers kicker, who's consistently expressed confidence the past several months about his recovery, said Thursday he has reached "the end of my rehab process." Kaeding suffered a season-ending knee injury on the opening kickoff in the 2011 opener. He underwent surgery to repair torn ligaments. "If we had to play a game right now, I feel like I'm dialed in enough to do it," Kaeding said. "That's not to say I'm not going to continue to improve this month, which is natural. You're out of the game, and you're out of the game-like situations. ... There's going to be a little lag time, I think. "But I feel like I'm ahead of the game right now and am trying to do some extra mental reps on the side to get the learning curve accelerated a little bit. But it feels great. I hope to keep it going in that direction the next four weeks."

Source: San Diego Union-Tribune

 Kaeding has top 5 talent at his position, but he's going to have to prove healthy to realize it. 

Rookie WR Kendall Wright Eased into First Camp Practice

Rookie wide receiver Kendall Wright took part on Thursday night’s practice, but on a limited basis. Outfitted in a red non-contact jersey, Wright ran routes during 7-on-7 drills. But quarterbacks didn’t throw the football his way, and defenders were careful not to run into him. “We are just being careful with him,” coach Mike Munchak said. “We just want him running routes, and we did about as much as we can do with him until Saturday.” That’s when Wright can practice in pads for the first time.

Source: Nashville Tennessean

With Kenny Britt on the PUP list (3 surgeries since his ACL/MCL tear on 9/25/11), it looks like Wright is going to be given the opportunity to be a factor in the Titans offense this season. Wright was the 3rd rated WR out of the draft, 20th overall. At 5'10" 200 lbs - Wright is built more like a RB than WR...but every other part of his game points to a playmaker in both the short and mid range game. There is a good chance that Wright will open as a starter for the Titans...making him a value at his current 14th round ADP.

August 2nd, 2012

RB Ryan Williams’s Status Uncertain for Preseason Opener

Whether running back Ryan Williams plays Sunday will likely be determined that day. Williams said he’ll tell the team how he feels, and Whisenhunt said Williams and head athletic trainer Tom Reed have developed a good enough relationship during rehab that it works that way. “I’d like for him to get in for a couple of plays, but he may not feel that way,” Whisenhunt said. Because there are no inactives in the preseason, Williams could dress and then they can make a call on the fly if they wanted to.

Source: AZCardinals.com

Williams is admittedly at about 85% on his recovery from a ruptured patella tendon (August 19,2011) in his right knee. If he can return to full health, which he's expected to by the regular season, Williams has a chance to beat our Chris Beanie Wells for the role of lead back. Here's a look back at what we said about Williams after last year's draft: Williams was an explosive runner in college who piled up big yards and breakaway runs throughout a breakout redshirt freshman season. He was relied heavily on, averaging over 22 carries and 127 rush yards per game, while scoring 21 times on the ground. His production in the receiving game was inconsistent but flashy when he was able to pull the ball in, averaging over 11 yards per catch. Coming off the stellar freshman season there was hopes that Williams would be able to build on the breakout campaign. He battled some hamstring injuries that forced him to miss 4.5 games and there were noted concerns from the coaching staff that Williams may have let success get to his head a little bit. His performance slumped as his yards-per-carry dropped from 5.6 to 4.3 and his role in the Hokies offense diminished. He topped 100 yards just once in his sophomore season and was held to under 40 rushing yards by East Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Stanford. The disappointing sophomore campaign clouded what looked to be a potentially explosive college career. Despite the on-field struggles, scouts still graded him aggressively labeling him as a potential 1^st round talent, which was enough to get Williams to declare for the draft. - Dinkmeyer

RB Jacquizz Rodgers Likely To See More Action in 2012

Running back Jacquizz Rodgers wasn't properly used last season as the Falcons only threw him one screen pass all season, according to Albert Breer of NFL.com. You can be sure that new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter will utilize the shifty back as a complement to power runner, Michael Turner. Rodgers had only 57 attempts last season but rushed for a respectable 205 yards and one touchdown.

Source: CBS Sports

There have been several comments out of Falcons camp concerning the Falcons looking to limit Turner's touches, and the Falcons desire to implement more of a spread offense. Hence we have lowered our expectations on Turner to only 260 carries, we don't really see much of a reduction below that mark...especially when you consider that Turner is still a very effective runner (4.5 YPC last season with a 15% red zone success rate). Turner will be undervalued, and a bargain in the late 4th round. Don't get too carried away with Rodgers expectations, as he likely will not see many Red Zone opportunities, consider that he only registered a meager 6% red zone success rate in 2011.

Bills Have Role in Mind for RB C.J. Spiller

The Bills said they have a better plan for tailback C.J. Spiller this season. He was mostly ignored as a running back until starter Fred Jackson was put on injured reserve with a broken leg. But Spiller, a former first-round pick, is getting more carries in practice and looks sharp heading into his third season. He broke a couple of big runs in Tuesday's practice. Expect Spiller to get more carries this season, but it's still going to be a major challenge taking Jackson off the field.

Source: ESPN.com

After looking like a first round bust for a season and a half, Spiller finally broke out in a big way last season registering 5.0 YPC in the 2nd half of 2011 (449 yards, 5 TDs), with a very impressive 23% Red Zone success rate. He's going late in the 6th round in most drafts...which could pay out big dividends...but there's the possibility that this turns into a Carolina situation...which doesn't bode well for either back. 

Panthers’ No. 2 WR Job Brandon LaFell’s To Lose?

For Panthers wide receiver Brandon LaFell, the training camp charge is clear. "It is his time," head coach Ron Rivera said of LaFell. The Panthers know what they have in their No. 1 wide receiver, Steve Smith. They have downfield speed, experience, tenacity, intelligence and passion. At the other wide receiver spot, the Panthers know what they want -- a reliable receiver who gets open, works in the middle of the field, is a downfield threat, can be an effective blocker and can do it all consistently. It's LaFell's job as training camp grinds toward the end of its first full week. He's the guy running first-team plays with Smith when the Panthers run team drills against the defense.

Source: Charlotte Observer

LaFell registered 613 yards on only 56 targets! His 17.0 YPR, for a 64% completion ratio warrants 100+ targets. He deserves the #2 slot and should see more action this season. His 17th round ADP puts him squarely on our sleeper list.

QB Colt McCoy Having Solid Camp But Starting Gig Seemingly Out Of Question

Browns President Mike Holmgren turned to his right-hand man, Gil Haskell, during red zone drills Wednesday and stated what many observers had been thinking. "I said 'boy, Colt's having a good day today,'" said Holmgren. "He had a good practice, he's had a good camp and he's looked good. I'm proud of the way he's handling it. I told Colt that the other day." Of course, it won't be enough for McCoy to earn the starting job, and it might not even be enough to keep him in Cleveland. Coach Pat Shurmur is set to name rookie Brandon Weeden his starting quarterback before the first preseason game in Detroit Aug. 10, and McCoy, who's working exclusively with the second-team offense, could still be traded before the preseason expires.

Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer

As soon as Brandon Weeden's name was called up to the podium, we knew who the starting QB would be for the Browns this season. Many including myself feel that McCoy still has the ability to be a starting QB. McCoy adopted to a new system last season (West Coast Offense) and didn't do that bad considering he didn't have an established receiver and was void of a running attack. Weeden is going to be 29 years old this fall, so his time is now.

 RB Felix Jones Passes Conditioning Test, Will Practice Friday

All three players who failed the conditioning test Sunday – running back Felix Jones, wide receiver Andre Holmes and safety Brodney Pool – passed Wednesday morning when they re-took the test as the rest of the Cowboys were going through their daily walkthrough. All three said after the walkthrough they were relieved to pass the test so they can go from their “remedial running” to practicing soon. The three players won’t practice this afternoon with the team, coach Jason Garrett said, and will return to practice Friday after the team takes Thursday off.

Source: Dallas Morning News

Our Drew Dinkmeyer told me that he could pass the conditioning test - 60 yards in 7 seconds ;) Felix will be under a lot of scrutiny this preseason, but it looks like the writing is on the wall: DeMarco Murray.

WR Eric Decker Limited with Groin Strain

While his wide receiver teammates still were running through their routes at the start of Wednesday's practice, Eric Decker walked to the sideline with head athletic trainer Steve Antonopulos. Decker laid down on the grass, and Antonopulos went to work, stretching out Decker's left leg. Decker participated little in the remaining practice, limited by what coach John Fox called a "groin strain."

Source: Denver Post

Not a major concern at this point. We're looking forward to hearing about the chemistry between he and Manning in the weeks ahead.

QB Peyton Manning Frequently Targeting TEs Joel Dreessen, Jacob Tamme

First-year Broncos Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen are shaping up to be a major part of the new-look offense in Denver. After six days of training camp practices, the Broncos have showcased several variations of a two tight end formation that features Tamme and Dreessen in different spots on the field. “Joel and I are working our tails off to see what we can do to help the team,” Tamme said after Wednesday’s practice. “We’ve got a lot of weapons offensively; we just need to come out every day and get better. Different games will probably feature and involve different things. We’re not really concerned about all that. We’re just trying to get out here and see what we can do.” Quarterback Peyton Manning is clearly getting comfortable with the pair of tight ends, as they’ve been two of his most targeted receivers in team drills and seven-on-sevens.

Source: DenverBroncos.com

As we reported a few days ago, Manning has yet to really let it out...which raises some concern to whether he's still ailing somewhat from the spinal fuse...stay tuned.

RB Jahvid Best Feels No Post-Concussion Symptoms, Still Playing Waiting Game

Jahvid Best feels great. He is experiencing zero symptoms of post-concussion syndrome — no headaches, no dizziness, no memory loss. He's working out like a demon and is possibly in the best shape of his life. And the doctors won't let him play. "That's definitely frustrating," Best said Tuesday as he walked off the field with his teammates following yet another practice he could only watch. "I'm taking tests once a week; I don't even know when the next one is. All I can do is just wait." Best is certain that he will be cleared. General manager Martin Mayhew, speaking Tuesday during his annual training camp address, is similarly optimistic. What still cannot be answered is when.

Source: Detroit News

There's a reason why he hasn't been cleared to play...he's obviously not completely free from symptoms, or enough time hasn't elapsed since he's been completely post concussion. We expect that he'll be cleared shortly...of bigger concern is that he might be "one and gone" when and if he takes another blow to the head.

WR Laurent Robinson Misses Afternoon Practice with Head Injury

Wide receiver Laurent Robinson had a good morning practice but then hit his head on the ground going for a ball and was held out of the afternoon practice while he was checked out. Safety Jeremiah Brown took a hit to the head Tuesday and practiced Wednesday morning. But when he developed headaches, the Jaguars held him out of the afternoon drills. With Robinson out and Cecil Shorts playing the other side, Brian Robiskie played with the ones in place in Robinson’s spot.

Source: Florida Times Union

Robinson hasn't exactly gotten off to a good start with the Jaguars. Robinson "got paid" to the tune of 32 million after being released by the Rams last season, only to be resurrected by Tony Romo in Dallas. Now he find himself with a 2nd year QB that has more question marks surrounding him than positive attributes. The potential holdout loss of Maurice Jones Drew, further complicates the picture. We're expecting a conservative 700 yards with 7 TDs from Robinson this year.

WR Jon Baldwin Shining in Dwayne Bowe’s Absence

The first segment of Chiefs training camp ended Tuesday with a night practice at Spratt Stadium, and whether you were there or not, you probably know about the first week’s biggest storyline. Yes, that wide receiver everyone keeps talking about. It’s a shame he has baggage, because we could all be a little more certain about him if not for that. As it stands, this young wideout with so much talent — you’re not a first-round pick without big skills — could be a significant reason why the 2012 season is a success and not a failure. Jon Baldwin, not Dwayne Bowe, has been the most important player for the Chiefs during this first week of the preseason, and boy, has he answered the challenge. Baldwin, not Bowe, is not only in attendance but is emerging as a player who looks like a young star who could give quarterback Matt Cassel a tall, powerful option down the field. Baldwin, not Bowe, is doing everything right when the man who was supposed to be his mentor is making a career mistake by refusing to sign his franchise tender — and allowing a second-year receiver to show the Chiefs how it’s done. As it stands, with each passing day and each time Baldwin leaps to catch a touchdown pass in the back of the end zone, as he did Tuesday night, Bowe’s value and importance to the Chiefs drops.

Source: Kansas City Star

Baldwin has the pedigree to be a star in this league, but there was a disconnect last year, as evidenced by his meager 40% completion ratio. This is a story worth following as Bowe continues to disappoint management... despite his immense talent.

Vikings’ TE John Carlson Suffers MCL Sprain

Minnesota Vikings tight end John Carlson will miss some time with his sprained knee, but the injury could have been much worse. That was the verdict after Carlson's fellow tight ends watched tape of the pileup that left Carlson with a Grade 2 sprain of his right medial collateral ligament -- an injury that generally takes two to four weeks to heal. "John got his leg out of the pile just in time," Kyle Rudolph said on Wednesday. The injury happened during a drill in Tuesday's padded practice that was "live" on the lines.

Source: ESPN Twin Cities

 Carlson will likely miss 2-4 weeks, which opens up a opportunity for Kyle Rudolph to establish himself. Only a consideration in deeper leagues.

RB Stevan Ridley Leading Patriots’ RB Competition

Running back Stevan Ridley looks to be out front in the Patriots’ running back competition, flashing a number of traits that make him an intriguing package. Here’s one that continues to show up: his decisiveness. Ridley wastes little time in finding his path between the tackles, generating forward push from the time he takes the football from the quarterback. That, along with his improved ball security (he’s yet to fumble in training camp), are evident already.

Source: ESPN Boston

The true value in New England will come from the back that establishes himself as the goal line back. We know that Belichick likes to keep the defense guessing between the 20s, but he tends to favor one back around the goal line. In a limited sample size of 17 goal line carries last season, Ridley didn't score. While Shane Vereen was 1 of 3...

QB Ben Roethlisberger Not Concerned About Shoulder, Eager For WR Mike Wallace’s Return

Ben Roethlisberger does not seem as concerned about his "little torn rotator cuff" in his right arm, nor as worried about the new offense and turning 30, as he is eager to see Mike Wallace rejoin the Steelers in training camp. Toward that end, Roethlisbeger has spoken regularly with Wallace since camp opened and even told Steelers president Art Rooney that first day at Saint Vincent College that he would fly to Louisiana to talk to his top receiver if he thought it was a good idea. He did not. "I've tried to be proactive and talk to Mike," Roethlisberger told the Post-Gazette today. "I just want to encourage him, let him know we love him, he's a great teammate, he's a great friend.

Source: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

 We're not concerned about Big Ben's shoulder either. He's not an MLB pitcher...as long as the tear is small, it will have little effect on his distance....maybe some 'Hail Mary's" will be affected, but don't let this story hold you back from drafting him. In fact, I think he's going to have a big season, as the Steelers are gearing up to pass the ball more this season.

RB Isaac Redman To Be Used for Three Downs with Rashard Mendenhall Recovering

Isaac Redman knows what is expected of him this year. With Rashard Mendenhall likely out a couple more months while recovering from offseason knee surgery, and not very much in the way of experience behind him, Redman is going to be responsible for the majority of the yards in the running game. Apparently, it’s not going to stop there for Redman: He is going to be the Steelers’ top third-down back as well. “Absolutely,” running back coach Kirby Wilson said.  

Source: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

 Mendenhall is far away from hitting the field, and Redman is not only going to be the workhorse while he's gone (see above), but he's also going to get Red Zone opps. Redman has the ability to be a better than average fantasy runningback...and depending on his start, he might be the lead back heading into the 2nd half as well.

Speedy RB Ryan Mathews Fine in Return to Field

Ryan Mathews, less than 48 hours removed from a two-vehicle collision, returned to practice Wednesday night. The Chargers running back saw his usual number of reps. Late Monday, he was involved in a traffic accident. "He looked fast to me," coach Norv Turner said after practice, which was held at Qualcomm Stadium. "He looked real fast. He's a really explosive player. Just missing a couple days and then coming back out here, you just feel his presence."

Source: San Diego Union-Tribune

Mathews (582 yards/5.2 YPC/18% Red Zone success in 2nd half) has some big fantasy shoes to fill this season, as his 1.06 ADP suggests. The departure of Tolbert, obviously increases the touches that Matthews will see this season. Tolbert's replacement this season, Le'Ron McClain, isn't a back that will see more than a couple of series a game, but he will see some Red Zone opps. The bigger risk here is Mathews ability to stay healthy.

TE Dallas Clark Looking Good in Bucs’ Camp

Dallas Clark has missed 16 games (including one in the playoffs) over the past two seasons due to a displaced tendon in his right wrist (11 in 2010) and a pinched nerve in his neck and broken left fibula (five in 2011). After last season, the rebuilding effort in Indianapolis left Clark on the outside looking in. After drawing little interest, the Bucs signed him to a one-year, $2.7 million deal in May to replace the traded Kellen Winslow. Tampa Bay did its due diligence, but reports that other teams passed after doing theirs couldn't be ignored. The Bucs opted to wait and see. So far, they have been encouraged. "I think he looks really good," coach Greg Schiano said. "He's working his tail off, and he's a true professional. Like anybody else, you keep your fingers crossed until the final game. But I'm very pleased he's on our team."  

Source: Tampa Bay Times

Clark is in line for a comeback season assuming he can stay healthy, but don't expect the same type of numbers that he posted with Manning during his heyday. When on the field his production has been in a serous decline. He's only managed a 52% completion ratio the last 2 years. Very late round selection as a 2nd TE offers value.

Have a great day, see you back here tomorrow! - Anthony

Contained within our player projections software is a notes column. Here is where we point out some statistical indicators that are relevant to our 2012 projections. This morning we'll take a look at some of the Quarterbacks that will be part of your 2012 draft (In no particular order):

Manning,Peyton Will be playing on a good defensive team, which may limit his passing to under 550 attempts, will be productive if he doesn't take a big hit...and that's the risk here.
Brady,Tom Brady had a monster season in 2011 with his 5200 pass yards and 15 Quality Games and 11 300+ yardage games...expecting more will be a tall task at best. Amazing .77 fantasy points per attempt last season.
Vick,Michael His .55 Fantasy points per attempt is top 5 at his position, but a far cry from his .93 per attempt in 2010. Difficult to project more than a 13-14 games season for a very injury prone player (due to playing style).
Brees,Drew Brees 2nd half of 2012 was off the charts, registering 248 of his league tying best 444. He also registered an unprecedented thirteen 300+ passing yardage games.
Palmer,Carson Improved in the second half with 5 quality starts in his last 8 games. His .53 FP per attempt provides optimism that he can be a top 10 QB in 2012.
Romo,Tony Registered a very impressive .60 fantasy Points per attempt last season with 11 quality games and five 100 yard games. Expected to have a very favorable schedule against the pass this season. Starts the season with 5 of 7 favorable matchups.
Manning,Eli Registered 10 Quality Games last season with a career high eight 300 yard games. Very tough schedule against the pass lies ahead in 2012., but fantasy success will depend on quality of defense...if it improves over last year, we expect fewer attempts.
Rivers,Philip Rivers had a down season, seeing his fantasy points per attempt drop from .62 to .51, improvement expected in 2012.
Roethlisberger,Ben Ben was banged up for most of 2011, bounce back season projected. Not a very favorable schedule against the pass, but a strong fantasy playoff run in weeks 14 (Chargers),15(Cowboys),16(Bengals).
Schaub,Matt Was off to a very good start with a .60 fantasy points per attempt, but a season ending injury short circuited his season. Will be undervalued, but a very decent back end QB.
Rodgers,Aaron Registered 15 quality games last season with eight 300+ yard games. Incredible .79 fantasy points per attempt last season...still the #1 QB.
Cassel,Matt Cassel has had some moments , but there has been to much inconsistency to draft him in most fantasy formats.

August 1st, 2012

Hi Folks, This morning Fantistics analyst Steven Bowser gets us caught up with the latest news and projection notes.

For those new to Fantistics, now that the preseason has begun, we update the player projections daily. Click on the Web Update feature in the software to update the projections and they will re sort the rankings based on your scoring setup. Have a great day. - Anthony

Avoiding Injuries?

Training camp is barely a week old and the injury reports are already coming in.  It took only a few days for Andre Johnson, WR (HOU) to injure his groin....Felix Jones, RB (DAL) failed his camp physical.  When drafting early wouldn’t you rather have a Cal Ripken-esque workhorse in your stable?  Who are the guys that history shows you can depend on, to rub some dirt on it and get their helmet?

Looking at the preseason Fantistics top 30 projected running backs and wide receivers, which players have suited up for all 32 regular season games over the past two years?  Six running backs and seven wide receivers have played every game for two straight years.  This week we look at the running backs.  The dependable seven are Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Michael Turner, Darren Sproles, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Isaac Redman.  In fact, Rice, Johnson and Sproles have not missed a game in three years.  There are five additional running backs in the top 30 who played all 16 games in 2011, Maurice Jones Drew, Shonn Greene, Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  

Three top 30 running backs have not played a complete season in any of the past four years.  These players all have very attractive projections over a 16 game season but that appears to be a big assumption for Reggie Bush, Marshawn Lynch and Darren McFadden.

Workhorse honorable mention: Willis McGahee (DEN), LeSean McCoy (PHI) and Steven Jackson (STL) have only missed 2 games in the past 3 years.  Prior to last the 2011 season-ending knee injury in the 12th game of 2011, Matt Forte (CHI) had played in every game for three consecutive seasons.  Fred Jackson (BUF) matched that streak before a knee injury in the 10th game of 2011.  Adrian Peterson (MIN) and Jamaal Charles (KC) had each only missed one game from 2008-2010.

Maybe Arian Foster is the obvious first overall pick, but if that is the pick I make, I am investing a later pick to handcuff Ben Tate just in case. 

Doug Martin RB TB – There is a lot of excitement in Buccaneers training camp about the rookie first round draft choice out of Boise St.  According to the Tamp Bay Times, head coach Greg Schiano, who coached Ray Rice in college, ducked the questions about comparing his rookie to the reigning league leader in yards from scrimmage.  However, there is a lot of buzz about what martin has done the first week in camp and his versatility as a runner and in the passing game.  Schiano likes to find a work horse and ride him, judging by his tenure at Rutgers.

Kevin Kolb QB, Ari – AZCentral.com reports that Kolb suffered a contusion of his right thigh during a practice on Monday.  Kolb is still slated to start the Hall of Fame game on this Sunday against the Saints.

Ray Rice  (BAL)– With Ricky Williams not on the roster, there is no clear backup and the man has played in virtually every game of his career.  Nothing in the Ravens passing game has changed.   Rice is as close to money in the bank as you can get in fantasy football.  2011 brought Rice career highs in rushing yards (1364), receiving yards (704) rushing TDs (12) and receiving TDs (3).  2012 could top that because the Ravens have done nothing to diversify their offense.

Chris Johnson (TEN) - 2011 was an off year for C2K.  His training camp hold out led to a slow start but down the stretch his production started to come around.  His second half totals 681 rushing yards, 3 TDs and 212 receiving yards project out to 1362/6 & 414 over a 16 game season.  Johnson is in camp and it is safe to expect a bounce-back year....but taking him in the mid first round is risk Fantistics recommends to avoid.

Michael Turner (ATL)– Coach Mike Smith is consistent in his statements that Turner’s workload will be managed to limit his touches.  The problem is, backup Jaquizz Rogers is undersized and was unimpressive in his rookie season.  Where will the other touches get distributed?  If Turner’s touches get scaled back, that bodes well for the Falcons passing attack.

Darren Sproles  (NO)– Sproles has not missed a game in four straight seasons., making him the true ironman of current NFL running backs.  In spite of the RBBC situation in New Orleans, Sproles is still getting the Lion’s share of touches because of the way he is utilized in the passing game.  In a PPR league the potential is obvious.  However in a standard league he generated 1313 all purpose yards and 9 TDs.  That consistency is too good to ignore.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (CIN) – New surroundings for the Law Firm makes the former Patriot an intriguing candidate for a breakout year.  Marvin Lewis does not have the same tendency for RBBC that Bill Belichick does.  In Lewis’ system, Cedric Benson became a viable fantasy play..  Benson had three straight 1000-yard seasons in spite of playing all 16 games in only one of those years.  Benson’s carries were 301,321,& 273 from 2009-2011 while averaging 3.8 yards per carry.  Green-Ellis averages 4.0 ypc on only 229 & 181 carries in the pass-happy New England attack.  If Green-Ellis can maintain a 4.0 ypc average and the Bengals give him a projected 325 carries, the same pace that Benson received over the past three years, over a 16 game season, we are talking about a 1300 yard rusher and he is not vulnerable to any TD vultures on the roster.

Isaac Redman  (PIT) - Redman definitely has the most upside and the most question marks of the workhorse backs since his consecutive games streak was largely as a short yardage back.  Now with Rashard Mendenhall on the PUP list to start the season, Redman will get his chance to prove that his 4.4 ypc average is sustainable and his workhorse status is legitimate.  When he became a starter in the final weeks of 2011, he did get banged up and had to sit out the second half in one game.  However, it is interesting to note that 4.4 ypc came as a “short yardage” back.

Maurice Jones Drew (JAX) – Games played the last four years 16-16-14-16.  An ankle injury in week 15 of the 2010 season made MJD drop in value a little last year, but he came through in his usual form. This year he is holding out seeking a long-term contract.  The holdout may be more of a setback to his fantasy production than the ankle injury was. (Case in point - Chris Johnson, 2011)

Shonn Greene (NYJ)– LT is retired and Greene needs to step up.  With a quarterback controversy in the Jets camp, Greene will have the opportunity to build on his 2011 totals of 1265 all-purpose yards and 6 TDs.  The caution is the addition of Tim Tebow who is sure to steal some red zone touches.  Joe McKnight is the back up and while he showed some flashes in 2011, it is hard to imagine Greene losing time due to depth at running back for the Jets.

Frank Gore (SFO)– Gore avoided injury for the first time in what seems like forever.  The perennial IR candidate played all 16 games under the Harbaugh system.  The 49ers seem to have stockpiled some additional depth behind Gore with Brandon Jacobs and rookie LaMichael James.  It’s hard to imagine that Gore’s production would go up over 2011 simply because of the depth added in San Francisco.

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart (CAR)– Owners wish that one of these guys would get out the way and let the other become a true feature back.  Unfortunately the timeshare became more frustrating with the addition of Mike Tolbert who has been pretty reliable himself, only missing 2 games in the past three years.

Darren McFadden (OAK) – Someone will take Run DMC by the end of the second round.  That person will feel like they got the steal of the draft as he electrifies during the first few weeks of the season.  With Michael Bush gone and no clear backup in training camp, McFadden will get a lot of touches early on.  That is very enticing but he has not played in more than 13 games in his first 4 years in the league and last year that dropped to 7 games.  Mike Goodson is the most experienced backup, formerly of Carolina.  Goodson does not seem as valuable a backup as Michael Bush, now with Chicago, was   Definitely look for the Raiders to add a free agent running back at some point.

Marshawn Lynch (SEA) - Lynch is a risky fantasy pick.  Whether it be injuries or off-the-field misconduct, he has failed to play a full 16 game season in the past four years.  In 2011, he came close appearing in 15 games and seemed to have turned a corner.  An off-season DUI and the potential for team or league disciplinary action drop his value.  Justin Forsett and Leon Washington have demonstrated that either can be a serviceable option as fill-ins should Lynch self-destruct.

Reggie Bush (MIA) – Reggie Bush had a breakout 2011 and appears to be the feature back in Miami.  He was able to stay on the field for 15 games last season, but in New Orleans only exceeded 10 games once in the previous three campaigns.  Daniel Thomas is next in line entering his second year in the league.

Demarco Murray (DAL) - It’s too early to tell whether DeMarco Murray will be a workhorse or a chronic injury risk.  Murray showed what he can do in 2011 before a leg injury sidelined him in the 13^th game of 2011.  What we do know is that Felix Jones has an alarming injury history and he failed his training camp physical when he arrived at Cowboys camp.  The Cowboys have had trouble keeping any running back healthy since Emmitt Smith left town.  Fantistics is a little more optimistic on DeMarco Murray than the consensus ADP of 2nd round 6th selection.

Here's some additional players in the news:

Jahvid Best RB Det – The Detroit Free Press reports, “Detroit Lions general manager Martin Mayhew said he’s “a little bit surprised” and “a little bit disappointed” that running back Jahvid Best still hasn’t been cleared for contact 9 1/2 months after his last concussion.”  Teammate Mikel LeShoure is returning from a torn ACL and dealing with a training camp hamstring injury.  As a result, the article states that Kevin Smith and Stefan Logan are taking most of the RB reps in camp thus far.

Jerome Simpson WR Min – The Daily Norseman reports that Simpson is making a favorable impression in training camp thus far.  Simpson lined up opposite A.J. Green in Cincinnati last year.  He hauled in 50 receptions for 725 yards and 4 TD’s including the highlight reel front flip into the endzone over a defender.  Simpson will serve a three game suspension to start the season but is a name to keep in mind as a sneaky pickup if needy at receiver.

Adrian Peterson RB Min – Returned to training camp after an apparent allergic reaction to some seafood.  “All-Day” was rushed to the hospital on Monday afternoon.  Peterson was able to continue his rehab on Tuesday for the knee injury that ended his season last December.

Jermichael Finley TE GB – Green Bay Press Gazette reports that Finley practiced in full pads for the first time since suffering a concussion on the opening day of camp last Thursday.

Washington Redskins have lost 2 offensive starters to injury in the first week of camp.  Guard Kory Lichtensteiger or tackle Jammal Brown are currently shelved but Mike Shanahan hopes to have them in time for the regular season opener.

Jason Babin DE Phi – Babin is expected to miss 2-3 weeks of training camp with a strained calf as reported on by the Philadelphia Inquirer.

David Nelson WR Buf – Buffalbills.com reports that Nelson knee injury, which occurred at practice on Saturday, was not as bad as originally thought.  Chan Gailey was quoted as saying Nelson would be out “four or five days”.

Ryan Mathews RB SD - The Charger reported that their star running back suffered minor injuries in an automobile accident on Monday night. Mathews was not seriously injured but sat our Tuesday practice according to nfl.com.

 

John Carlson, TE Min - The Vikings' tight end sprained an MCL in practice on Tuesday. NFL.com reports that the injury will not require surgery but that his status for the opening of the regular season is in question.

The Miami Herald reports that Dolphin’s new head coach Joe Philbin may try to improve the team’s red-zone performance through the air. Which suddenly makes Anthony Fassano sound more attractive.  The also report that David Garrard got most of the first team snaps on Monday.

Dennis Pitta TE Bal – The Baltimore Sun reports that the Ravens time share tight end will miss the remainder of training camp with what is believed to be a broken hand.  A Tuesday MRI was scheduled and surgery is likely to follow.  The injury to Pitta opens up more practice time for Ed Dickson.  Ravens hope to have Pitta back in time for the season opener but that remains to be seen.

July 31st, 2012

Hi Folks, Camps are at full speed, and the news is starting to flow. We've also got some internal news here at Fantistics that I'd like to share. For those who play in leagues that utilize Individual Defensive Players, we have hired a new IDP expert. Joe Everett, of the IDP Report, will maintain the preseason IDP projections in the software and weekly IDP projections for Fantistics during the season. We're revamping the IDP section in the software this year to include detailed notes for each player.  Look for IDP projection notes in the days ahead.

We're also gearing up for our first Sirius XM Fantistics Insider Football Show of the season. Be sure to join us this Sunday from 10am-noon on Sirius XM 87/210, as our fantasy football experts Drew Dinkmeyer and Dan Clasgens get you ready for the fantasy draft season and take your questions live. - Anthony

WR Braylon Edwards signing with Seahawks
According to Danny O'Neil of the seattletimes.com, Edwards recently worked out for the Seahawks. He also visited the Dolphins, and while many assumed the Seahawks' signing of Antonio Bryant meant Edwards was no longer a consideration, that may not be the case. Dave Mahler of KJR Sports Radio is reporting the Seahawks will sign Edwards on Tuesday. I'm working to confirm that, but before I followed it up, I wanted to post the report here.

The pending Edwards signing is a mixed bag, he was completely non relevant last season, but his presence does provide some coverage protection for Sidney Rice. Edwards has been marred with a sub par completion rate the last few years (averaging less than 50%), which is indicative of sloppy route running. Right now we don't consider him much of a factor outside of deeper leagues.

Felix the Fat Cat returns
Accrdoing to the official team website, "Felix Jones is healthy enough to participate in practice again. He's just not in shape. Dallas Cowboys coach Jason Garrett was disappointed to announce that Jones failed his conditioning test to start camp. Jones is recovering from shoulder surgery, but Garrett didn't want to hear about excuses. This is the first time since his rookie year that Jones clearly looks like a backup. (This time to DeMarco Murray.) This is the final year of Jones' contract, and this is not the way he wanted to get it started."

Apparently Jones couldn't run 50 yards in 7 seconds. Jones is in the last year of his contract, and if he has an agent with any influence on him, he'll get in shape quickly. In the mean while the stock value of DeMarco Murray continues to rise.

RB Chris Wells says he'll be ready for the season
Accrdoing to the Arizona Republic, The plan all along, running back Beanie Wells said Wednesday, was for him to start training camp on the physically unable to perform list. No surprise, he said, although a lot of people were just that: surprised. Wells is recovering from knee surgery to fix, uh, something in there. Wells hasn't said what was repaired. Here was his explanation on Wednesday: "I had a scope and we did some things in there. Kind of let some things settle down and get right." Wells said he is being patient because he prepared himself mentally for his rehab. "I'm going to take my time," he said. "I don't think anybody wants to see a 75 percent Beanie Wells. Everybody wants to see a 100 percent Beanie Wells and that's what I want to give." Meanwhile, Ryan Williams is practicing and estimated he's at about 85 percent. He looked quick on a handful of carries during the afternoon session. Wells said he doesn't feel pressured by Williams' progress. Wells said he would start practicing in a few weeks, in plenty of time to get ready for the season opener.

Wells has been a major disappointment for his fantasy owners the last few seasons. Injuries along with misleading information coming out of the Cardinals corner made him toxic in weekly format leagues last year. Wells best game of his career came in week 12 when he ran for 228 yards with a TD. Leading into that week he missed practice time and was considered questionable to play. When you consider that he hadn't cracked 70 yards in the previous 3 weeks, and didn't crack 70 yards in the 4 weeks after...hence the frustration. He's got talent, but the knees have been and will continue to be an ever present concern.

Shanahan on Evan Royster: 'You can't tackle him'
According to the CSNwashington.com, Redskins Coach Mike Shanahan insists he hasn’t decided how he’s going to handle the team’s trio of running backs. Evan Royster hopes to make the decision for him. To win the starting job, though, the second-year Fairfax, Va., native must outperform Roy Helu Jr. and Tim Hightower in the coming weeks. Asked what he likes about Royster, Shanahan didn’t hesitate. “You can’t tackle him,” the coach said. “He makes people miss. He knows how to cut [and] and he knows when to cut.”

Roy Helu has the best pure speed of the bunch, and has looked good in early camp, while Hightower is the best blocker and backfield receiver...there is no way around it...if all three are healthy, Shanahan likes to rotate the backs based on the match up. Not an ideal situation for fantasy leaguers looking in from draft day.
 

WR Rookie Michael Floyd is currently 4th on the team Depth Chart
The Cardinals put out their first official depth chart of the season today. This stuff is fluid given certain competitions, but they have to make someone No. 1 and No. 2 and so on. There are no shocking developments, but: Kevin Kolb is listed as the No. 1 QB right now. John Skelton is the No. 2. Behind Fitz is DeMarco Sampson and then Stephen Williams. At the other receiver spot, it officially goes Andre Roberts, then Early Doucet, then Michael Floyd.

Not a shock to see rookies not listed as starters when training camp opens. Especially when you consider that Wisenhunt likes his rookies to earn roles. Yes there is some concern that Floyd doesn't get separation when pressed at the line...and he'll certainly have to find ways to overcome that. However, we must consider the competition here. Andre Roberts is not very good...especially when you consider that he was playing across from one of the best Wide outs in the league....who was constantly draped with double coverage last season. The Cards can't afford to have Fitzgerald blanketed this season, and that's why they grabbed Floyd as early as they did. Unless he crumbles this preseason, Floyd will see 90+ targets this season...and right now he's an ADP value as a late 11th round selection.

QB Peyton Manning not throwing deep passes...yet
According to NFL.com, Manning clearly isn't all the way back, but he has thrown it deep at times in camp. He completed a beautiful deep post on Friday. It appears the Broncos are just being careful early in camp, but all of the worrying about the focus on short passing seems to be a bit much. "Where I'll be, percentage-wise, I don't know," Manning told Peter King of SI.com. "I don't know if I'll feel the way I've always felt again. Everybody wonders, 'Can he get back to where he was?' That bar was set pretty high. Now, my goal is to feel as good as I possibly can -- right now." King says Manning is not "ripping" his throws like he used to. Manning is still trying to build up the strength around his shoulders. This was always going to be a process, and it would be a bigger surprise if Manning was "ripping" it so early in camp. Manning can be effective even without a huge arm. Let's give the guy a month (or two) before assuming he's Chad Pennington 2.0.

Still too early to make anything out of this, but clearly Manning is taking it slowly. Lets see how he progresses in the weeks ahead, but right now his 7th round ADP is a little rich based on the uncertainty....which brings to question the 4th round ADP of Demaryius Thomas and 6th round ADP of Eric Decker.

AP Poisoned!
According to the official team website, Adrian Peterson has worked through his rehabilitation from a torn anterior cruciate ligament with impressive speed. On Monday, he took on an even tougher task: Bad seafood. The Minnesota Vikings called 911 and Peterson was taken to the hospital after an allergic reaction to seafood. Fear not, fantasy fans and seafood lovers: Peterson is already back with the team. "Everything is back to normal now. Little bit of a scare, but he's fine," coach Leslie Frazier said. Peterson remains on the active/physically unable to perform list, but the team is hopeful he will play in the preseason. In related news, the Vikings have announced they are discontinuing Crawfish Mondays.

AP is obviously going to be fine, the important bit of info here is that here is that AP is getting closer to full practices. Peterson's upside is that of a top 3 fantasy back, but we do have to temper our expectations. ACL cases typically take 6 months for "full recovery"...and we are in month 7, but it usually takes most a minimum of 9-12 months to be back to NFL standards.


TE Dennis Pitta breaks hand
Accrdoing to the official team website, Tight end Dennis Pitta appears to have a broken hand and could miss the entire preseason. The injury occurred during Monday’s padded practice. "It looks like he broke his hand,” Head Coach John Harbaugh said. "It looks like he’ll have to get it repaired in some form or fashion and he should be back for the first regular-season game. That’s very tentative, I’m very ahead of myself.” Pitta will have an MRI on Tuesday to further assess the damage, and the Ravens will be able to tell more accurately at that point how much time he will miss.

Ed Dickson has the opportunity to capitalize on an extended opportunity now that he's the central figure at the position. Dickson came on strong in the 2nd half with a 80% Red zone success rate and a 70% reception rate.

TE Brent Celek has a slight MCL sprain
Eagles tight end Brent Celek has a slight sprain of the MCL in his right knee, which an MRI confirmed after Celek suffered the injury during Thursday afternoon’s practice. Celek will be day-to-day while recovering. The injury occurred during a naked bootleg when Celek pivoted and had his foot caught in the grass. “Mild knee sprain, doesn’t hurt that bad,” Celek said. “Just something that I have to be cautious about.” Coach Andy Reid and general manager Howie Roseman will discuss veteran tight ends, but it doesn’t seem like Jeremy Shockey is in that group. “Not right now, no,” Reid said. Considering Celek could soon return, it might not make sense for the Eagles to sign someone simply to balance the reps in camp. Reid mentioned using a fullback such as Emil Igwenagu in that role. “We just got to weigh that out, whether we bring somebody else in or do this,” Reid said. ” For Celek, the injury is frustrating because he arrived at camp with a clean bill of health. The injury likely won't set him back with the offense or make him miss any preseason games unless it lingers. But Celek took little solace in the timing of it, focusing instead that he's not practicing.

The injury doesn't seem like it will linger into the season at this point. Celek came alive in the 2nd half of 2011 when the connected on a 71% completion rate with a very impressive 15.5 YPR. If healthy, he's going to have a better season than 2011, and should provide value on his 12th round ADP.

WR Randall Cobb showing skill early
From his first day in training camp last year, Randall Cobb showed at least once in almost every practice a playmaking ability that’s relatively rare. The Packers, though, didn’t push his development at receiver as a rookie. He caught only 25 passes and instead made his impact mainly as their punt and kickoff returner, where he had the team’s best season probably dating to Desmond Howard in 1996. But judging by Cobb’s eye-catching start in training camp this year, it will be impossible to keep him off the field in Year 2 even though he’s going to continue as their primary return man. Through three days of practice, he’s made more big plays and been used in a greater variety of ways than any of their other receivers.

Cobb could see more touches in the Packer backfield this season, but to become fantasy significant Cobb is going to have to beat out the the ageless Donald Driver....who has been showing signs of his 37 years. Cobb registered a 80% completion rate last season, and that along with his homerun potential is something that the Packers would like to exploit this season.

See you back here tomorrow! - Anthony
 

July 30th, 2012

Hi Folks, Let's jump into the daily news this afternoon. Throughout this week, we'll also be recapping stories from the off season:
Decker,Eric - DEN/WR: Decker was a hot free agent acquisition in most standard leagues when the season started last year. He and Kyle Orton had great chemistry so when Tim Tebow took over - Decker's numbers took a plunge. It wasn't all Tebow, Decker was injury prone and his conditioning was poor. This year with Peyton Manning at the helm, Decker has worked his butt off this offseason - hoping to develop that chemistry with Manning. We have seen Manning make stars out of mid level talent receivers but Decker actually has talent. We expect him to play that Brandon Stokley role to the tune of 970+ yards and nine TDs.

Johnson,Andre - HOU/WR: According to the Houston Chronicle, "Andre Johnson’s mild groin strain that will keep him out of practice at least a week caused 4,277 fans and 89 teammates to hold their collective breath and created a panic in the Houston sports media. The sight of Johnson pulling up lame and going to the ground after a routine pass route early in the morning practice, then being administered to by team doctors on the sideline sent reporters scurrying for information to send to Twitter World. Johnson’s teammates stood by helplessly. It was a scene they’d seen too many times over the last two seasons – when a knee injury prematurely ended Johnson’s 2010 season and hamstring injuries kept him out of nine games last season."

We dropped Johnson's value a bit this morning. Injuries, which have always been part of Johnson's M.O., are starting to become more frequent...and with age...the recovery period of course lengthens. Still a top 5...but too risky inside the 2nd round.

Locker,Jake - TEN/QB: According to the Nashville Tennessean, "Just like they did during the offseason, Hasselbeck and Locker split reps. They will continue to do so throughout camp, Munchak said, with the goal to name the starter by the third preseason game (Aug. 23 vs. the Cardinals at LP Field).
Locker got off to a shaky start. On his first pass attempt in 7-on-7 drills, he overthrew wide receiver Nate Washington. Safety Michael Griffin intercepted the floating football. “You have to get the bad ones out of the way,” Locker said with a smile. The second-year pro settled down, however, and looked mostly sharp. His best throw was a bullet to Washington across the middle in team drills. He also made a nice throw across his body to running back Herb Donaldson in the flat. Hasselbeck was long on a deep throw to wide receiver Marc Mariani, but he made some impressive passes as well, finding Washington with a quick-hitter and firing a throw on the run to tight end Brandon Barden."

Barring a total collapse, Locker will open the season as the Titans starting QB. The Titans have a favorable schedule against the pass this season, and although we expect Locker to take a big step forward this season, he's not a consideration outside of 2 QB start leagues.

Rice,Sidney - SEA/WR: According to ESPN.com, "Sidney Rice didn't want to be the only non-quarterback stuck wearing a red jersey during the early days of Seattle Seahawks training camp. So on Day 2 on Sunday, when trainers and coaches weren't looking, Rice slid on his regular blue practice jersey and jogged onto the field. "I wanted to be in the blue with the rest of the team," Rice said. "I'm not a quarterback so I don't want to wear a red jersey." That doesn't mean Rice is cleared for full contact. Far from it, actually, as Rice continues his recovery from offseason surgery on both of his shoulders. The Seahawks intend to take it very slowly with Rice during training camp and avoid all contact for now, even if the red jersey is gone."

Rice is still a relatively young 25 years old, so there is still a lot of football left in those legs. Rice's value is very much dependant on how Matt Flynn adopts to this new system...Flynn doesn't possess a rocket arm, but can lead receivers on deep patterns.

Green-Ellis,Benjarvus - NEP/RB: Green-Ellis bolted the Patriots for a better opportunity for himself with Cincinnati and should turn a lot of heads this year. Cedric Benson was not re-signed so the one-dimensional Bernard Scott is BGE's lone competition for playing time. BGE is similar to Benson in that he is a between-the-tackle runner with good burst but because he was in a more prolific offense in New England, he scored a whole lot more than Benson. Was BGE's production a result of NE's pass happy spread offense? Sometimes it seemed as if my grandma could run through the middle with opposing defenses so worried about the NE receivers. We don't think so and believe he will challenge 1,000 yards but definitely score double digit TDs this year - partly based on his excellence around the goal line and Cincy's lack of options.

Turner,Michael - ATL/RB: Turner has been in the news a lot this season as the team has told various media outlets that Turner will not get his normal 300+ carries. Head Coach Mike Smith theorizes that due to the amount of mileage Turner has accumulated over the last four years, it better serves the team to keep him fresh for the latter part of the season. Atlanta's flameout against the NY Giants in the playoffs surely has a role in Smith's thinking. This news does relegate Turner to a #2 tier back in most leagues. Fantistics projects slight dips in production which is the rule of thumb when RBs hit 30.

Bradshaw,Ahmad - NYG/RB: Despite persistent foot issues limiting him to 12 games last year - Bradshaw set a career high in rushing TDs with nine. He wasn't so productive in yardage (averaging 3.9 yards per carry) but he scored more often than all but a few backs. With the exit of Brandon Jacobs to San Francisco, rookie David Wilson and the limited DJ Ware will serve as backups to Bradshaw. Wilson might surprise but make no mistake about it, team officials want Bradshaw to have a year similar to 2010 when he played in all 16 games and rushed for 1,200+ yards. In most standard leagues, if you can nab Bradshaw as your third back - you should be proud. Fantastics projects eight rushing TDs and 960+ rushing yards.

Murray,DeMarco - DAL/RB: Murray was a free agent in most standard leagues 2011 until he literally exploded for 253 rushing yards against St. Louis in Week 7. For a few weeks, he was the hottest back in the league not just because of his rushing exploits, but also because of his knack for catching a lot of passes - both designed and improvisational dump offs from Tony Romo. In PPR leagues - he was a #1 tier back and will continue to be this year. He has recovered from his serious ankle injury suffered last year and should be drafted as a low #1 tier back. Fantistics projects 1,100+ yards, 10 TDs and 51+ passes!

Green,A.J. - CIN/WR: Green lived up to his rookie hype last year when he exploded onto the scene despite having a rookie QB at the helm in Cincy. As opposing defenses realized he was the real deal as the season progressed - they started rolling pass coverages Green's way. You can see the impact this made on Green's numbers as he caught just one TD in his last six games after catching six in his first nine games. Fantistics predicts big things for Green - 1,216 yards and nine TDs - but the key factor for Green to ascend to first tier WR status is for Andy Dalton to continue playing beyond his years and Green to be effective lining up in different places on offense so defenses cannot track him as easy.

Crabtree,Michael - SFO/WR: According to CSN Bay Area, "Receiver Michael Crabtree will miss practice again on Sunday afternoon, 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh said. General manager Trent Baalke said Crabtree's injury is not a long-term concern to the 49ers. "Like any injury, you never know how long it's going to take these guys to come back," Baalke said Sunday. "But he's working hard at it. The prognosis looks good." Crabtree was seen hobbling after a play during the 49ers' first practice of training camp on Friday. He appeared to favor his right foot or ankle. Crabtree did not practice on Saturday."

Crabtree has a extensive history of foot problems, so this is certainly something to keep an eye on. Biggest knock against Crabtree last season was his lack of success in the Red Zone...only a 17% success rate. Biggest question is whether Randy Moss can draw double coverage, freeing up Crabtree.

Wallace,Mike - PIT/WR: According to ESPN.com, "Steelers wide receiver Mike Wallace isn't going anywhere this year. That's the word out of Steelers training camp, where general manager Kevin Colbert told ESPN's Ed Werder on Saturday, "Mike Wallace is not available for trade." This ends speculation that the Steelers were going to move Wallace after signing wide receiver Antonio Brown to a five-year, $42.5 million extension on Friday."

Wallace managed 7 quality starts last season despite only posting 1 quality outing in the 2nd half (only 50 targeted passes)....and the Steelers didn't do so well in the 2nd half...which would lead to speculation that he's going to once again be a bigger part of the offense throughout the season.

Nicks,Hakeem - NYG/WR: According to the New York Daily News, "Hakeem Nicks, who is still recovering from the broken right foot he suffered in the spring, said Sunday that a return midway through next month “sounds about right,” and his rehab is exactly where the Giants expected it to be.
“Definitely,” Nicks said. “No setbacks, everything is going the way we planned. We’re just sticking to the things that doctors and trainers told us to do.” That plan had Nicks making improvements on Sunday. While his teammates practiced at the University at Albany, Nicks did some light running drills. He was able to sprint forward, stop quickly and backpedal across the field. He also did some light change of direction work."

Nicks is currently going in the mid 3rd rounds of most fantasy drafts, which is appropriate based on his upside.
 

Blount,LeGarrette - TBB/RB: The Tampa Bay Times reported Sunday that LaGarrett Blount may slowly be losing his grip on the starting running back spot. Rookie Doug Martin has taken a large majority of the first-team reps in the first three days of practice. Martin also got more reps when the Bucs conducted a pass-protection period in Sunday morning's practice. This is especially notable since pass-protection blocking is one area of Blount's game where he needs all the practice he can get. Blount was a huge fantasy bust last year which necessitated drafting Martin. Martin is projected by Fantistics to have a 1,000+ yards and seven TDs!

Edwards,Braylon - SFO/WR: Edwards - an unrestricted free agent - worked out for the Miami Dolphins last Tuesday. He previously worked out for Seattle who opted to sign former Cincinnati free agent bust Antonio Bryant. The current top four receivers on the Dolphins' depth chart are Chad Johnson, Legedu Naanee, Brian Hartline and Davone Bess. Needless to say, the more help the better for Miami. What a free fall it has been for the former 1st round stud from Michigan. First he was anointed the savior in Cleveland and then was traded to NY. The Jets then let his contract expire and never re-signed him. SF - who had no real stud WRs to speak of last year signed him but eventually cut him in the middle of the season - replacing him on the roster with Brett Swain. Edwards may be getting the TO treatment in 2012.

Jones,Julio - ATL/WR: Jones proved his NFL worth quickly in his rookie season - catching eight TD passes and averaging 17.8 yards per catch! Atlanta has tremendous talent on the offensive side of the ball so there is no reason to think the offense will stutter at all. There is no question that Roddy White is Matt Ryan's #1 go-to guy, but he is injury prone and Jones is the undisputed deep threat of the offense. He will not be as consistent as White, but he will have his share of bigger games. He is dynamite in leagues that measure yards per catch and is still a solid #2 WR in larger league (12+ teams) formats.

Cutler,Jay - CHI/QB: After breaking his thumb last season - which contributed to Chicago's free fall in the standings - Cutler became a fantasy afterthought. Fantasy owners have long memories and his injury screwed up a lot of rosters. However, with his former teammate Brandon Marshall coming over, his former QB coach Jeremy Bates in Denver, as well as a loaded backfield of Matt Forte and Michael Bush - fantasy owners have to accept the possibility that Cutler deserves one more chance. Fantistics projects a strong 25 TD performance vs. just 12 INTs (former offensive coordinator Mike Martz is gone so the sacks and INTs will go down). He would be a tremendous second QB in most league formats.

Meachem,Robert - NOS/WR: Meachem left the offensive powerhouse Saints for another in San Diego so the dropoff you would expect to occur due to leaving New Orlean should not happen. Philip Rivers' former favorite deep threat Vincent Jackson bolted to Tampa Bay so Meachem will have the chance to step in immediately. Meachem's strength is his deep speed as he did not catch a lot of passes in NO but did catch his share of big passes and TDs. Fantistics predicts seven TDs and a career high 992 yards.

Ingram,Mark - NOS/RB: According to The Times-Picayune, "Running back Mark Ingram (toe, knee) was limited in Sunday's practice. He went through individual drills, but stood idle on the sidelines during any team portion of practice. This shouldn't be a surprise as Ingram's schedule thus far in training camp has been to fully practice one day and then practice on a limited basis the next day."

It's still early, but Ingram has a lot of competition for touches in the Saints backfield...and he isn't a lock to get the red zone touches. Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles were more effective in the red zone last season.

Thomas,Daniel - MIA/RB: According to the Miami Herald, "Daniel Thomas remains in the lead in the competition for the No.2 running back job behind Reggie Bush, with Steve Slaton currently running ahead of Lamar Miller for the No.3 job. Thomas, Bush and Miller have all had good moments in the first two days of camp. Miller has flashed dynamic skills in the open field throughout the offseason program. Thomas ripped off two long runs Saturday but also dropped a pass. Asked if he prefers a featured back or a running back by committee, coach Joe Philbin said: “I’m not locked into one guy carrying the ball 23 times and the next guy carrying it seven. You want a guy to touch the football X-amount of times because those guys have a higher chance of getting yourself a big play, but I’m not locked into any one formula.”

As we mentioned a few days ago, Thomas is still very much in the picture this season and could live up to his expectations. We're certainly going to be keeping tabs on him during camp and the preseason.

Tannehill, Ryan - MIA/QB: According to the Miami Herald, "Ryan Tannehill left Dolphins headquarters at close to midnight Saturday, the ink still drying on his contract, was awake by 5:30 Sunday morning, back to work as the sun rose over Davie and then tantalized adoring fans with a string of 11 completions in 12 attempts during one stretch of practice, mostly on short- to medium-range throws. All in all, it was a productive first day of training camp for the Dolphins’ first-round draft choice, aside from two interceptions, both off deflections, in 7-on-7 drills. “It was a good starting point,” said Tannehill, relieved to be in camp after missing the first two days in a contract dispute. “It’s been a long couple of days for me. To be finally out there and competing, it felt great.” Offensive coordinator Mike Sherman gave his rookie quarterback a thumbs up: “He was ahead of where I thought he would be.”

Tannehill's primary completion will come from Matt Moore, who at times played like an above average QB last season. Regardless losing Marshall really hurts the value of the QB position in Miami this season.

Luck, Andrew - IND/QB: According to the Indianapolis Star, "This afternoon, coach Chuck Pagano put the team through its first serious practice, minus pads. The NFL’s labor agreement doesn’t allow for pads and contact until the fourth training-camp practice, so that phase of the Colts’ summer work won’t occur until Thursday. At first glance, it was a solid afternoon for the team, especially the offense. Quarterback Andrew Luck was sharp, completing 27-of-32 passes with two interceptions (one on a deflection) in 11-on-11 and 7-on-7 work. There were few obvious errors, only one dropped pass. “That’s a credit to the offensive guys, the offensive coaches,’’ Pagano said after the practice that unfolded in front of an Anderson University crowd estimated at 3,000. “You can see from today the offense stayed in their playbook (in the offseason). The retention has been excellent and they came out here and moved the ball up and down the field pretty much at will.’’

We're all well versed in Luck's ability and potential, but the fact is that the Colts have a very poor core of components for Luck to succeed. Their running game is well below par, and outside of an aging Reggie Wayne, there isn't much proven talent on this team.

Leshoure,Mikel - DET/RB: According to the Detroit Free Press, "Offensive tackle Jeff Backus and running back Mikel Leshoure are not taking part in Lions training camp today after leaving Saturday's practice with injuries. Backus hurt his thumb and Leshoure suffered a minor hamstring pull. It's unknown how long both players will be out."

Leshoure is returning from a Achilles injury. Before the injury last year, here's what we said about the 2nd rounder: was the 2nd best pure RB in the draft and the gap between he and Ingram wasn’t as significant as the production on the field would suggest. Leshoure isn’t an athletic freak, but he is a gifted pure runner with good vision and great instincts. He doesn’t have elite speed that allows him to separate from defenders, but he was rarely caught from behind in college. He’s a big back, but not necessarily a physical bruiser. With Javid Best one hit away from a career ending concussion, Mikel could have a very clear path to being the main guy in Detroit this season.


Bryant,Dez - DAL/WR: According to ESPN Dallas, "Dez Bryant’s off-field drama tests the patience of owner/general manager Jerry Jones.
That’s only because Bryant is blessed with extraordinary talent. If Bryant’s potential wasn’t so immense, Jones’ patience would have probably expired long ago. “There is no doubt that Dez Bryant is exceptionally talented,” Jones said. “It has certainly served to give him the consideration that’s he’s gotten frankly in life. And I think he, like us all, (has) got to realize where your bread is buttered. “You’ve got to realize that that is not there for you if you do not adhere to society’s rules. He’s got to realize that. We know and he knows -- and he knows that we know -- that controversy, we know is not good overall for the Cowboys and is not good for the league, and that there are consequences, and we will deal with those as we move along and get more information.” It’s not as if the Cowboys have been caught off guard by Bryant’s issues, which are in the spotlight again because of the receiver’s recent arrest on a misdemeanor family violence charge for allegedly assaulting his mother."

Well....thankfully we don't draft players based on their moral fiber....and we're hearing that he likely will not draw a suspension from this incident, since his Mom is not pressing charges. Despite all of the bad press, he only dropped 1 ball last season. Rock solid 2.30 Points per reception and 63% Red Zone success. Has the ability to be a top 5...


Richaerdson, Trent - CLE/RB: According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, "Browns rookie running back Trent Richardson dazzled a record training camp crowd of 4,200 on the first day of practice in full pads. On a day where the running game and play-action were the focus, Richardson got the fans pumped with an array of powerful bursts and one screen pass from quarterback Brandon Weeden, after which Richardson darted and weaved for a long gain to a chorus of cheers. Defensive tackle Brian Schaefering indoctrinated Richardson on his first run in team drills, tossing him to the ground near the line of scrimmage. But he popped back up with some extra fire in his belly and ripped off two straight runs to the left for about 5 and 10 yards. Montario Hardesty, who said in minicamp that he stacks up with Richardson, appears to be out to prove it. Hardesty ripped off a couple of long runs and drew cheers from the crowd. Completely healthy for the first time in a Browns training camp, Hardesty looks like the back the Browns thought they were getting when they traded up to take him in the second round of the 2010 draft. "That's as quick as I've seen him," said coach Pat Shurmur. "That was as good as I've seen Montario look."

Several pro scouts have said that he's the best thing to come out since Adrian Peterson...however we're tempering our expectations. The Browns are going to have to prove that they have a passing game, or Richardson will face a stacked box. The overall #3 pick has a lot going for himself, not only on the ground, but also as a backfield receiver.

Gonzalez,Tony - ATL/TE: According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "Despite getting less production out of the tight end position than the Falcons have averaged over the last three seasons, Tony Gonzalez is comfortable with the role the tight end plays in new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter’s system. In Jacksonville, tight end Marcedes Lewis averaged 41.4 catches over the last five seasons with David Garrard and Blaine Gabbert operating the offense. Lewis peaked in 2010 when he caught 58 passes and 10 touchdowns to earn a trip to the Pro Bowl. In former coordinator Mike Mularkey’s system, Gonzalez averaged 77.6 catches over the past three seasons and has made two trips to the Pro Bowl. “I don’t see it changing too much from what it’s been around here,” Gonzalez said. “It’s somewhat the same plays. Of course, he brought his great plays that he liked down there.”

Gonzalez still managed to post the most yardage and TDs that he's had in the last 3 year (875/7 TDs/80 receptions), but most of that production came in spurts. Still a top 12 TE...

Amendola,Danny - STL/WR: Remember now before you start laughing, Amendola was targeted 123 times for passes in 2010. I was expecting a strong year last year but it was a lost cause due to a dislocated elbow. The Rams were an absolute mess in 2011 and losing Amendola was part of the problem. He has great hands and is a prototypical slot receiver with his quick feet and toughness. He is worth a gamble in larger leagues as a 4th or 5th WR - particularly in PPR leagues.

Today's Analysis was written by both myself and Fantistics Jasbir Singh. See you back here tomorrow! - Anthony

 

July 28th, 2012

Hi Folks, Yesterday we looked at the runningback situations in the NFC, lets take a look at the position battles in the AFC today.

The RB Situations - AFC

Reggie Bush after finishing the 2011 season as a top 10 fantasy back, comes into the season as the undisputed starting RB for the Dolphins. Bush averaged an impressive 5.1 YPC, with a decent 15% Red Zone success rate. The Dolphins Daniel Thomas didn't perform very well in his first season averaging only 3.7 YPC with a poor 3.6% Red Zone success rate.... but don't completely write him off as he'll be given an opportunity to prove his mettle this preseason. Consider that there have been numerous situations where a first year back has struggled and turned it around in their 2nd/3rd seasons. Consider the recent cases of Darren McFadden and CJ Spiller. Speaking of CJ Spiller (449 yards and 5 TDs in 2nd half of '11), he's earned a share of the touches in Buffalo backfield and could see 175-200 touches between carries and receptions...but Fred Jackson will still see upward of 215 carries with 45-50 receptions. Jackson is valued accordingly as a late 3rd round selection, while Spiller is going in the late 6th, early 7th. Jackson's big advantage in playing time stems from his excellent pass protection ability. In New York, Shonn Greene still has a stranglehold as lead back...but there is some serious concern that he'll lose some red zone opps with the Tim Tebow package expected to be deployed. However when you consider that Greene only had 6 TDs last season, it's possible that the diversion may increase his red zone success rate which could lead to more TDs. Greene may be slightly undervalued coming into the draft season.  The Patriots are one of the pure RBBC setups in the league, although we'd like to say that this is a 2 man competition between Shane Vereen vs. Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead is likely to see 25% of the carries. Ridley heads in as the expected favorite, but once again it's going to be very difficult to start a Patroit RB in most league formats. Rashard Mendenhall is likely to start the season on the PUP list, which will likely set him back until game 7 or 8 of the season. Issac Redmond, is expected to start the season as the Steeler's lead back, and his power running style is very conducive for Red Zone success. Redmond could be a surprise this season, as he does have the potential to be a double digit TD guy. 7th round selection Rookie Chris Rainey is an explosive runner, but more of a scat back, so his role may be limited to 3rd and long situations.... Trent Richardson was the best running back coming out of the draft, and he's clearly on tap to the the Browns workhorse. Richardson, who some have favorably compared to Adrian Peterson, will be entering into a hostile environment unless the Browns can establish a passing game early on... The Law firm, BenJarvis Green-Ellis, enters into a good situation in Cincinnati this season. He'll be the lead back, likely seeing most of the goal line situations based on his 2 year success rate of +20% in the red zone. He will however lose some time in passing situations to both Bernard Scott and Rookie Dan Herron. Overall he looks like a lock for 220+ carries out of the backfield...The Titan's Chris Johnson has said and done all the right things this offseason, and we'll certainly be watching this preseason. Currently he's going off the board as the 7th overall pick...which might be considered a little too rich....despite his strong yardage totals in the 2nd half. Lots of concern in Jacksonville, MJD wants to "get paid", and management is adamant that they will not renegotiate. This one might get ugly...Rashard Jennings has been a very capable fill in averaging +5 YPC since entering the league. If you draft MJD, then you will be forced to draft Jennings before the 18th round...which is pretty cheap considering the upside, and the Jaguars have one of the easiest schedules against the run in 2012 (A)....After a decent junior season that saw him run for 492 yards and 3 TDs during his final 8 games of '11, Donald Brown enters Colts camp as the starter. We don't expect him to be a 300 carry back, but he could sneak in 200...which might not be enough to warrant a weekly start in shallower leagues. 3rd round selection Ronnie Hillman is getting a lot of preseason hype, but on the surface he's not built to be an every down back. Hillman is small but explosive, and has the ability to grab big chunks of yardage given a hole or missed tackle. I expect that the Broncos will consider him more in 3rd down/passing situations RB to start...and depending on his ability to block and hold onto the football....an increased role may emerge. In the mean time Willis McGahee's late 8th round ADP is undervalued for a back that had seven 100 yard games last season. Darren McFadden has reportedly successfully recovered from his Lisfranc sprain, he was a full participant in the June mini camps, so there is more upside expected given the departure of Michael Bush. Jamal Charles (ACL) has been cleared to practice. Although we don't expect those signature cuts right away, there is no competition between he and Peyton Hillis (now that Jackie Battle has moved on). Hillis however will likely steal his fair share of red zone touches and short yardage pushes. The Chiefs are also blessed with a A- schedule against the run and their fantasy playoff week's 15 and 16 will come against the porous front lines of the Raiders and Colts.

 July 27th, 2012

Before we start discussing the camp developments (many camps open this weekend), lets take a quick look at ever changing dynamics in the fantasy landscape:

The State of Fantasy Running Backs 2012

Last season Marshawn Lynch, Michael Bush, and Darren Sproles finished the season as top 10 RBs... not even the most clairvoyant saw them as top 20 coming into Draft day 2011. There’s little shock value in repeating that the day of the bell cow back is long gone, and hence the overall predictability of the position. Last year only 5 of the top 20 running backs increased their production in 2011 or lost less than 10%. ...and only 8 of 20 were within 20%. Clearly not optimal.

However there was a very big shift last season in the ability of the overall top 20 RBs to come within 30% of their 2010 fantasy totals...70% achieved this milestone...and we haven’t seen more than 50% since the late 1990’s.

So what accounted for the increase in reliability? The data suggests that although many organizations are talking about a rotating backs, there were fewer true RBBC systems employed in 2011. Most coaches are riding the better back...especially in situations where there is a clear difference between the #1 and the #2 RB. Last season only the Panthers, Packers, Colts, Patriots, Saints, Giants, and Redskins employed a true RBBC system. That’s only 7 out of 32, or only 22%. Most teams still have a dominant back, and these are the situations that we want to value accordingly on Draft Day.

My early preseason observation is that the  fantasy community is overvaluing 2^nd tier wide receivers this season at the expense of “feature” running backs....running backs that should still be considered #1 backs for fantasy purposes. The Fantistics Draft Software creates that watermark for you with colored tiers among the positions, helping to make that draft decision easier. As an example, you’ll see when a running back is the last player in a tier, before lets say a batch of WRs...a batch that will likely afford you the ability to wait until the next round before selecting the WR position.  As we say, it’s not who to draft, it’s how to draft....

The RB Situations

Here’s a run down of the NFC running back situations/questions as we head into camp: Lots of David Wilson talk in Giants camp, but if Ahmad Bradshaw can stay healthy, he’ll be the dominant back there....and his 40% Red Zone success rate of last season dispels the rumors that he won’t/can’t be the goal line back.   DeMarco Murray was simply dominant last season before breaking his ankle. He didn’t score many TDs (5% Red Zone success rate), however the problem there was systematic as Felix Jones only averaged a 5% success rate as well. Consider that the Cowboys have spent a considerable amount of money to improve their OL (Livings/Bernadeau). The Redskins may once again start the season turning to a surgically repaired Tim Hightower, who dominates in pass protection and as an outlet in the pass game...I’m looking at this much the same way I look at the Patriots running back situation (which yesterday got a little less merky with the release of Joseph Addai). Roy Helu, has the ability to take it up a level in 2012, but Evan Royster (strong finish to 2011  - 5.9 YPC) remains in the background as well. Some folks are drafting Marshawn Lynch in the 1^st round, which seems absurd...but he did finish the 2011 season as the 5^th best fantasy back in the NFL...I don’t think he can repeat that 2^nd half of ’11 when he scored 9 TDs with five 100 yard games, as there are some concerns about his O-line’s ability. Chris Beanie Wells is once again “not 100%”, and after an offseason of words regarding his work ethic...I’m of the mind that if Ryan Williams is going to be a surprise this season. There is little doubt that either DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart can be top 10 fantasy backs, but it will take a significant injury to one of them to bring this to fruition. Without that, you can not start either one of these guys on your fantasy team as it’s just too risky. I would consider either in the late rounds, and hold the lottery ticket. Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, Chris Ivory...too much RBBC here as well, Sproles is the absolute choice in a PPR...steer clear of the rest at this point.  Doug Martin doesn’t have the starting gig yet...but it’s going to take an epic failure for him not to win the #1 role....and Tampa is going to have a better passing game which should open up the run game this season.   James Starks and Alex Green will battle it out this preseason. Starks enters as the #1, but Green (ACL recovery) has the higher ceiling...we’ll be watching this one closely.  Another situation worth keeping a close eye on is in Detroit, Best (concussion) and Leshoure (Achillies) both have high upside, but are major injury concerns....while Kevin Smith looked reborn as a stud RB at times last season. Both Best and Leshoure are expected to participate in camps, but Leshoure will miss 2 games of the NFL season to suspension. Adrian Peterson where art thou? By all accounts, AP is well ahead of the expected recovery period of a repaired ACL. The Vikings are expected to decide today whether to place Peterson on the PUP....which would just delay his participation in camp...Peterson says he’ll be ready for the start of the season, but history is against his expectations. Our projections this morning reflect a week 3 return.

Stay tuned, we'll be back later this weekend with some AFC RB notes, and we'll be starting our daily preseason player projection notes soon. -Anthony