2006: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 29 out of the top 35 = 80% correct

Running Backs:42 out of top 50 = 84% correct

Wide Receivers: 46 out of top 60 = 77% correct

Tight Ends: 21 out of top 30 = 70% correct

Place Kickers: 24 out of the top 30 = 80% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position, click here - 2006 / 2005 /2004 / 2003 / 2002 Forecasting Results.

Another way we measure success is by comparing how we did against other web services or magazines dedicated to Fantasy Football. This year we received an inquiry asking to see us compared to another leading fantasy football service called footballguys.com. Below is a comparison of the top 70 players (using ADP heading into the 2006 season) with our projected Rankings (dated 9/05/06) verses Footballguys.com's projections (dated 9/04/06) verses the aggregate ranking from several fantasy football magazines.

2006: Preseason Projections vs Competition

Using a simple method of accounting, the forecasting source with the closest player rank to the actual year end rank (based on fantasy points*) received 1 point. If two sources closest to the actual result had an identical forecasted rank, then each would receive 1/2 point. If all three sources were identical in rank, then no points would be awarded. 

Of the top 70 suggested players (according to last season's consensus Average Draft Position), Fantistics player projections came closest to the mark on 28 of this top tier group. Although the Fantasy Football Magazines finished with the least correlation, in fairness these publications come to market in June and do not have the benefit of training camp and preseason.

Although some of the differences between the projection sources may look subtle, think again. Coming into 2006, Lamont Jordan was expected to be a top 10 back. The end result was a disaster. Our ranking placed him slightly below the consensus, thus although we were grossly overstated in our projection....our subscribers would not, in all likelihood, have drafted Jordan based on the other more optimistic forecasts within the community. On the flip side, we were shamefully wrong in our projection of Drew Brees last year.  Although the best forecaster in this group were the fantasy magazines at a 12 rank among his peers, in all likelihood those who relied on these publications would have secured the 2nd best QB of 2006 before most others would have drafted him.

Fantasy Football is a game of percentages. With skillful representation, if you stack enough of these percentages in your favor, there's a good chance that you'll be competitive with your squad throughout the season. We hope to provide you with that representation.

We look forward to bringing you back into the winners circle in 2007, have a great season!

*The analysis measures fantasy points based on a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1 point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) 

YOU MAKE THE CALL: Don't agree with any of our projections? You can change and save any of the Fantistics Individual Player Projections and compute your unique set of rankings!

Features Included in the 2007 Fantasy Football Package include

• Fantasy Pro: Draft Prep Software - Detailed projections on over 800 players, including defensive players, allowing you to produce customized ranking lists based on your league rules.
• VAM Draft Strategy - Drafting order based on the scarcity of each position and the probability of predictability
• Preseason Projection Notes - Not just the news, but relevant fantasy projection changes
• Auction Draft Values - Custom results unique to your league.
• Position Battles/ Sleepers - knowing who the winners will be
• Inside the Numbers Series - Which position players face the most difficult or friendly schedule ahead
• Historical Fantasy Databases - Which players are the most consistent year after year
• Weekly Pickup Recommendations - which players are the ones to pickup
• Injury News and analysis reports emails - Fantasy recommendations to the daily news
• Opposition Match up Matrix Database- Weekly plays and trading reference tool
• Weekly Player Rankings/Projections for your Team - Critical Start/Bench decisions based on our successful weekly forecasting
• Trending Player Analysis
• Red Zone and Targeted Passes Databases - Spot the trends
• Sunday Morning Scoop - Last minute activation / deactivation alerts

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Anthony A. Perri is the founder and the resident "Stats Nerd" at Fantistics.  Anthony has a graduate level Math education. His experience includes working as a  Quantitative Analyst for several Wall Street firms developing statistical models before venturing out into Fantasy Sports in the late 1990s. His decade long involvement in Fantasy Sports includes accolades from some of the top publications in the country as well as  continual guest appearances on Sports Radio. Anthony is the designer of the Fantistics Projections Model & the VAM drafting strategy models.