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2009: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 23 out of the top 30 = 77% correct

Running Backs:42 out of top 50 = 82% correct

Wide Receivers: 45 out of top 60 = 75% correct

Tight Ends: 24 out of top 30 = 80% correct

Place Kickers: 20 out of the top 30 = 70% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position. (2008 /2007 /2006 /2005 /2004 /2003 /2002 Forecasting Results.)

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

A look back at the 2009 Quarterback Projections - 77 % Success

  2008 2009 2009 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Brees,Dr 23.7 21.7 DOWN 21.8 DOWN
Brady,To 0.3 21.3 UP 19.8 UP
Manning,Pe 18.3 20.3 UP 20.2 UP
Rodgers,Aa 22.2 20.2 DOWN 24.3 UP
Romo,To 42.2 18.6 DOWN 20.4 DOWN
Rivers,Ph 20.2 18.4 DOWN 19.9 DOWN
Warner,Ku 20.1 18.3 DOWN 16.8 DOWN
McNabb,Do 18.3 17.6 DOWN 17.0 DOWN
Schaub,Ma 17.6 17.3 DOWN 20.7 UP
Cutler,Ja 29.3 16.5 DOWN 16.4 DOWN
Ryan,Ma 57.5 16.5 DOWN 13.5 DOWN
Palmer,Ca 5.6 16.3 UP 15.0 UP
Hasselbeck,Ma 4.3 16.2 UP 12.3 UP
Garrard,Da 32.4 16.1 DOWN 16.9 DOWN
Orton,Ky 15.7 16.0 UP 16.1 UP
Cassel,Ma 20.4 15.9 DOWN 12.3 DOWN
Flacco,Jo 49.8 15.8 DOWN 15.4 DOWN
Roethlisberger,Be 16.1 15.7 DOWN 19.8 UP
Manning,El 17.9 15.2 DOWN 18.0 UP
Pennington,Ch 16.0 15.1 DOWN 7.1 DOWN
Russell,Ja 176.0 15.0 DOWN 3.7 DOWN
Favre,Br 14.3 14.8 UP 20.5 UP
Edwards,Tr 189.0 14.8 DOWN 4.9 DOWN
Hill,Sh 20.3 14.6 DOWN 4.4 DOWN
Campbell,Ja 15.6 14.1 DOWN 16.3 UP
Quinn,Br 2.0 13.7 UP 7.3 UP
Collins,Ke 10.8 13.5 UP 4.8 DOWN
Sanchez,Ma 0.0 13.5 UP 9.9 UP N/A
Bulger,Ma 10.0 11.9 UP 6.0 DOWN
Delhomme,Ja 13.4 11.5 DOWN 7.3 DOWN
Culpepper,D 3.3 9.0 UP 7.1 UP

A look back at the 2009 Running Back Projections - 82 % Success
  2008 2009 2009 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Peterson,Ad 15.5 17.6 UP 18.2 UP
Turner,Mi 17.3 16.3 DOWN 9.4 DOWN
Forte,Ma 15.3 16.2 UP 10.3 DOWN
Jones-Drew,Ma 13.9 16.1 UP 17.0 UP
Tomlinson,La 14.1 15.1 UP 10.0 DOWN
Jackson,St 15.8 15.0 DOWN 12.4 DOWN
Johnson,Ch 13.9 14.2 UP 21.7 UP
Williams,De 17.8 14.1 DOWN 11.2 DOWN
Slaton,St 14.1 14.1 DOWN 10.6 DOWN
Gore,Fr 13.5 13.9 UP 14.4 UP
Westbrook,Br 15.6 13.7 DOWN 3.6 DOWN
Jacobs,Br 15.6 13.6 DOWN 9.2 DOWN
Barber III,Ma 12.3 13.5 UP 9.8 DOWN
Smith,Ke 10.9 13.3 UP 11.2 UP
Portis,Cl 14.1 12.9 DOWN 5.6 DOWN
Brown,Ro 11.1 12.5 UP 14.2 UP
Addai,Jo 9.8 12.5 UP 12.5 UP
Grant,Ry 10.1 12.4 UP 13.2 UP
Moreno,Kn 0.0 10.9 UP 10.6 UP N/A
Thomas,Pi 11.6 10.8 DOWN 9.8 DOWN
McFadden,Da 7.8 10.8 UP 4.1 DOWN
Jones,Th 15.1 10.7 DOWN 14.4 DOWN
Bush,Re 12.0 10.7 DOWN 7.5 DOWN
Wells,Ch 0.0 10.7 UP 8.5 UP N/A
Jones,Fe 9.2 10.6 UP 6.2 DOWN
Lynch,Ma 12.6 10.6 DOWN 5.8 DOWN
Rice,Ra 6.1 10.4 UP 15.8 UP
Bradshaw,Ah 4.7 10.2 UP 8.8 UP
Hightower,Ti 7.7 10.2 UP 9.4 UP
Parker,Wi 10.0 10.2 UP 3.2 DOWN
Brown,Do 0.0 9.5 UP 3.9 UP N/A
White,Le 10.6 9.3 DOWN 2.2 DOWN
McCoy,Le 0.0 9.2 UP 7.4 UP N/A
Washington,Le 8.0 9.1 UP 6.6 DOWN
Stewart,Jo 9.3 9.1 DOWN 12.1 UP
Johnson,La 10.4 9.1 DOWN 4.6 DOWN
Scott,Be 0.0 8.8 UP 2.4 UP N/A
Benson,Ce 8.8 8.8 UP 10.8 UP
Davis,J 0.0 8.7 UP 0.7 UP N/A
McGahee,Wi 9.7 8.7 DOWN 9.2 DOWN
Ward,De 9.6 8.7 DOWN 4.7 DOWN
Coffee,Gl 0.0 8.1 UP 2.3 UP N/A
Mendenhall,Ra 2.7 8.0 UP 11.6 UP
Maroney,La 3.0 7.9 UP 8.7 UP
Jones,Ju 6.2 7.9 UP 7.1 UP
Charles,Ja 4.3 7.8 UP 11.9 UP
Jackson,Fr 7.1 7.8 UP 10.8 UP
Williams,Ca 8.7 7.6 DOWN 9.1 UP
Sproles,Da 6.9 7.6 UP 7.9 UP
Lewis,Ja 8.9 7.2 DOWN 5.3 DOWN
Hillis,Pe 69.0 6.5 DOWN 0.8 DOWN
McClain,Le 10.6 6.4 DOWN 2.8 DOWN
Bush,Mi 7.6 7.4 DOWN 5.5 DOWN

 

A look back at the 2009 Wide Receiver Projections - 75 % Success
  2008 2009 2009 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Fitzgerald,La 215.0 13.7 DOWN 11.7 DOWN
Moss,Ra 10.4 12.9 UP 12.8 UP
Johnson,Ca 29.3 12.9 DOWN 8.5 DOWN
Johnson,An 22.9 12.8 DOWN 13.2 DOWN
Jennings,Gr 11.4 12.3 UP 8.5 DOWN
Smith,St 20.2 12.1 DOWN 9.5 DOWN
Wayne,Re 50.3 12.0 DOWN 11.5 DOWN
White,Ro 30.2 11.8 DOWN 11.3 DOWN
Colston,Ma 106.0 11.2 DOWN 10.1 DOWN
Owens,Te 10.6 10.9 UP 7.8 DOWN
Jackson,De 59.5 10.7 DOWN 11.9 DOWN
Boldin,An 14.8 10.2 DOWN 8.4 DOWN
Houshmandzadeh,T. 8.2 10.0 UP 6.8 DOWN
Welker,We 8.6 9.8 UP 10.2 UP
Edwards,Br 6.6 9.8 UP 5.8 DOWN
Marshall,Br 10.1 9.6 DOWN 11.0 UP
Jackson,Vi 14.5 9.6 DOWN 10.7 DOWN
OchoCinco,Ch 26.0 9.6 DOWN 10.1 DOWN
Bowe,Dw 9.6 9.5 DOWN 6.9 DOWN
Berrian,Be 17.6 9.4 DOWN 5.4 DOWN
Williams,Ro 56.0 9.2 DOWN 6.4 DOWN
Royal,Ed 69.5 8.9 DOWN 2.2 DOWN
Henry,Ch 6.8 8.7 UP 4.5 DOWN
Evans,Le 122.0 8.7 DOWN 6.5 DOWN
Gage,Ju 11.2 8.6 DOWN 3.5 DOWN
Bryant,An 13.0 8.6 DOWN 5.3 DOWN
Cotchery,Je 14.6 8.6 DOWN 6.7 DOWN
Hixon,Do 4.6 8.5 UP 1.5 DOWN
Avery,Do 49.0 8.5 DOWN 5.7 DOWN
Ward,Hi 9.2 8.5 DOWN 9.5 UP
Moore,La 153.0 8.2 DOWN 1.7 DOWN
Holt,To 6.1 8.2 UP 4.5 DOWN
Hester,De 5.7 8.1 UP 5.9 UP
Moss,Sa 8.9 7.9 DOWN 6.8 DOWN
Ginn Jr.,Te 6.9 7.9 UP 3.5 DOWN
Mason,De 8.4 7.9 DOWN 9.1 UP
Holmes,Sa 37.7 7.7 DOWN 9.6 DOWN
Walter,Ke 15.6 7.6 DOWN 4.7 DOWN
Driver,Do 8.8 7.5 DOWN 9.0 UP
Harvin,Pe 0.0 7.5 UP 8.0 UP N/A
Williamson,Tr 1.5 7.5 UP 1.7 UP
Coles,La 32.0 7.4 DOWN 5.2 DOWN
Clayton,Ma 17.0 7.4 DOWN 3.9 DOWN
Crayton,Pa 80.0 7.0 DOWN 5.9 DOWN
Breaston,St 7.4 6.8 DOWN 5.9 DOWN
Bennett,Ea 0.0 6.7 UP 5.2 UP N/A
Curtis,Ke 4.3 6.7 UP 0.5 DOWN
Rice,Si 2.5 6.6 UP 11.2 UP
Maclin,Je 0.0 6.6 UP 6.2 UP N/A
Smith,St 9.0 6.5 DOWN 10.3 UP
Schilens,Ch 0.0 6.5 UP 3.0 UP
Camarillo,Gr 4.6 6.4 UP 3.5 DOWN
Robinson,La 0.6 6.3 UP 7.6 UP
Britt,Ke 0.0 6.2 UP 5.5 UP N/A
Washington,Na 20.8 6.1 DOWN 5.9 DOWN
Jones,Ja 4.1 6.0 UP 4.6 UP
Floyd,Ma 7.1 6.0 DOWN 5.2 DOWN
Crabtree,Mi 0.0 5.9 UP 6.8 UP N/A
Heyward-Bey,Da 0.0 5.9 UP 1.3 UP N/A
Muhammad,Mu 7.6 5.8 DOWN 4.0 DOWN
Jenkins,Mi 8.7 5.8 DOWN 4.3 DOWN
Henderson,De 7.1 5.8 DOWN 5.9 DOWN
Chambers,Ch 8.4 5.6 DOWN 6.4 DOWN
Morgan,Jo 3.1 5.6 UP 4.8 UP
Bruce,Is 7.8 5.9 DOWN 1.6 DOWN

 

 

A look back at the 2009 Tight End Projections - 80% Success

  2008 2009 2009 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Witten,Ja 9.9 8.7 DOWN 7.2 DOWN
Gates,An 13.1 8.6 DOWN 10.2 DOWN
Gonzalez,To 10.4 8.6 DOWN 7.7 DOWN
Clark,Da 9.3 7.9 DOWN 10.7 UP
Winslow,Ke 61.0 7.5 DOWN 7.4 DOWN
Olsen,Gr 5.8 7.2 UP 6.8 UP
Daniels,Ow 6.1 6.7 UP 10.2 UP
Carlson,Jo 46.5 6.4 DOWN 6.2 DOWN
Cooley,Ch 11.4 6.2 DOWN 4.1 DOWN
Miller,Za 5.6 6.2 UP 6.2 UP
Shiancoe,Vi 12.8 6.1 DOWN 7.7 DOWN
Finley,Je 6.5 6.0 DOWN 6.1 DOWN
Boss,Ke 10.6 6.0 DOWN 5.5 DOWN
Shockey,Je 3.2 6.0 UP 4.7 UP
Keller,Du 36.0 5.9 DOWN 4.1 DOWN
Fasano,An 5.4 5.9 UP 2.9 DOWN
Scheffler,To 5.1 5.8 UP 3.4 DOWN
Scaife,Bo 4.5 5.7 UP 3.1 DOWN
Davis,Ve 4.9 5.6 UP 10.9 UP
Miller,He 11.5 5.6 DOWN 7.2 DOWN
Baker,Ch 1.5 5.6 UP 1.6 UP
Pettigrew,Br 0.0 4.9 UP 4.3 UP N/A
Lee,Do 6.7 4.7 DOWN 2.0 DOWN
Heap,To 19.0 4.2 DOWN 6.0 DOWN
Lewis,Ma 3.8 4.2 UP 4.0 UP
Bennett,Ma 26.0 4.1 DOWN 1.0 DOWN
Royal,Ro 13.7 3.9 DOWN 1.2 DOWN
McMichael,Ra 0.9 3.8 UP 2.5 UP
Clark,De 2.9 3.5 UP 1.7 DOWN
Celek,Br 5.4 3.5 DOWN 9.1 UP
Ryan,Se .3 3.5 UP 9.1 UP

 

 

A look back at the 2009 Place Kicker Projections - 70% Success
  2008 2009 2009 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Gostkowski,S. 25.8 10.5 DOWN 8.4 DOWN
Gould,R. 9.1 9.5 UP 7.3 DOWN
Kaeding,N. 12.8 9.2 DOWN 9.9 DOWN
Bironas,R. 10.0 9.1 DOWN 8.6 DOWN
Brown,K. 8.0 9.0 UP 7.0 DOWN
Elam,J. 8.6 9.0 UP 6.6 DOWN
Crosby,M. 31.5 8.9 DOWN 8.6 DOWN
Reed,J. 16.4 8.6 DOWN 7.9 DOWN
Akers,D. 8.8 8.6 DOWN 9.5 UP
Folk,N. 27.0 8.6 DOWN 6.9 DOWN
Vinatieri,A. 6.4 8.6 UP 2.5 DOWN
Nedney,J. 7.8 8.6 UP 5.8 DOWN
Kasay,J. 8.7 8.5 DOWN 6.5 DOWN
Longwell,R. 7.6 8.4 UP 9.0 UP
Hanson,J. 4.9 8.3 UP 6.1 UP
Suisham,S. 55.5 8.1 DOWN 6.5 DOWN
Graham,S. 5.8 8.1 UP 6.5 UP
Mare,O. 6.3 8.1 UP 6.6 UP
Brown,J. 13.8 8.1 DOWN 5.6 DOWN
Lindell,R. 8.4 8.0 DOWN 7.2 DOWN
Tynes,L. 0.4 7.9 UP 8.3 UP
Dawson,P. 6.7 7.9 UP 4.6 DOWN
Rackers,N. 7.7 7.7 UP 5.7 DOWN
Janikowski,S. 5.8 7.7 UP 7.3 UP
Hauschka,S. 1.0 7.3 UP 4.8 UP
Succop,R. 0.0 7.0 UP 7.1 UP
Prater,M. 27.3 36.9 UP 8.4 DOWN
Scobee,J. 36.5 6.1 DOWN 5.9 DOWN
Carpenter,D. 11.0 6.0 DOWN 7.6 DOWN
Nugent,M. 0.6 5.9 UP 4.5 UP

 

 
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