2010: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*
Quarterbacks:
23 out of
the top 30 = 77% correct
Running Backs:40 out of
top 50 = 80% correct
Wide Receivers:
48 out
of top 60 = 80% correct
Tight Ends:
20 out of
top 30 = 67% correct
Place Kickers:
22 out of the top 30 = 73% correct
*Based on predicting whether or not a
player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed
listing of each player and position. (2010/2009/2008/2007/2006/2005/2004/2003/2002
Forecasting Results.)
The analysis below
measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The
focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting
whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than
the previous year. It
assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards
rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for
rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per
Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a
prognosticator's control.
A look back
: 2010 Quarterback Projections -
77 % Success
|
|
2009 |
2010 |
2010 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Manning,Pe |
20.3 |
22.1 |
UP |
20.9 |
UP |
 |
|
Brady,To |
19.8 |
20.3 |
UP |
21.3 |
UP |
|
|
Rivers,Ph |
19.9 |
19.9 |
DOWN |
20.9 |
UP |
 |
|
Romo,To |
20.4 |
19.7 |
DOWN |
16.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Flacco,Jo |
15.4 |
18.0 |
UP |
17.2 |
UP |
|
|
Palmer,Ca |
15.0 |
17.5 |
UP |
16.7 |
UP |
|
|
Manning,El |
18.0 |
17.3 |
DOWN |
17.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Cutler,Ja |
16.4 |
17.0 |
UP |
15.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Favre,Br |
20.6 |
16.9 |
DOWN |
10.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Kolb,Ke |
18.0 |
16.8 |
DOWN |
9.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Ryan,Ma |
15.5 |
16.4 |
UP |
18.2 |
UP |
|
|
McNabb,Do |
19.4 |
15.9 |
DOWN |
16.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Stafford,Ma |
2.3 |
15.6 |
UP |
9.3 |
UP |
|
|
Young,Vi |
13.3 |
15.5 |
UP |
12.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Roethlisberger,Be |
21.1 |
15.4 |
DOWN |
20.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Henne,Ch |
12.4 |
15.2 |
UP |
12.9 |
UP |
|
|
Orton,Ky |
16.1 |
15.0 |
DOWN |
19.6 |
UP |
|
|
Garrard,Da |
16.9 |
15.0 |
DOWN |
18.3 |
UP |
|
|
Smith,Al |
0.5 |
14.9 |
UP |
14.6 |
UP |
|
|
Campbell,Ja |
16.3 |
14.7 |
DOWN |
12.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Cassel,Ma |
13.2 |
14.3 |
UP |
17.5 |
UP |
|
|
Hasselbeck,Ma |
14.1 |
13.3 |
DOWN |
12.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Sanchez,Ma |
1.9 |
13.4 |
UP |
15.6 |
UP |
|
|
Anderson,De |
6.1 |
13.0 |
UP |
9.5 |
UP |
|
|
Edwards,Tr |
9.9 |
12.7 |
UP |
6.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Freeman,Jo |
1.6 |
12.6 |
UP |
18.6 |
UP |
|
|
Moore,Ma |
11.4 |
11.3 |
DOWN |
5.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Delhomme,Ja |
9.4 |
11.3 |
UP |
4.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gradkowski,Br |
11.3 |
3.1 |
DOWN |
.03 |
DOWN |
|
|
Vick,Mi |
2.7 |
8.3 |
UP |
26.5 |
UP |
|
|
A look back: 2010 Running Back Projections -80 % Success |
|
|
|
2009 |
2010 |
2010 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Johnson,Ch |
21.7 |
19.1 |
DOWN |
14.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Peterson,Ad |
18.2 |
16.9 |
DOWN |
16.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jones-Drew,Ma |
17.1 |
16.1 |
DOWN |
14.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Rice,Ra |
15.8 |
15.3 |
DOWN |
13.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gore,Fr |
16.5 |
14.4 |
DOWN |
14.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Turner,Mi |
13.7 |
14.3 |
UP |
13.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jackson,St |
13.2 |
13.9 |
UP |
13.2 |
UP |
|
|
Mathews,Ry |
0.0 |
13.4 |
UP |
10.3 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Thomas,Pi |
11.3 |
12.7 |
UP |
7.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Williams,De |
13.8 |
12.6 |
DOWN |
6.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Greene,Sh |
5.1 |
12.5 |
UP |
6.7 |
UP |
|
|
McCoy,Le |
7.4 |
12.4 |
UP |
14.7 |
UP |
|
|
Grant,Ry |
13.2 |
12.2 |
DOWN |
4.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Benson,Ce |
13.2 |
12.1 |
DOWN |
11.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Charles,Ja |
12.7 |
13.9 |
UP |
15.1 |
UP |
|
|
Mendenhall,Ra |
12.3 |
12.1 |
DOWN |
13.9 |
UP |
|
|
Best,Ja |
0.0 |
12.1 |
UP |
9.4 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Spiller,C. |
0.0 |
12.0 |
UP |
3.6 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Moreno,Kn |
10.6 |
11.9 |
UP |
11.7 |
UP |
|
|
Foster,Ar |
13.3 |
11.8 |
DOWN |
20.6 |
UP |
|
|
Forte,Ma |
10.3 |
11.7 |
UP |
13.5 |
UP |
|
|
Wells,Ch |
8.5 |
11.7 |
UP |
4.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Addai,Jo |
12.9 |
11.6 |
DOWN |
9.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brown,Ro |
13.7 |
11.6 |
DOWN |
8.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Stewart,Jo |
12.1 |
11.6 |
DOWN |
7.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bradshaw,Ah |
9.4 |
11.3 |
UP |
12.7 |
UP |
|
|
Tomlinson,La |
11.4 |
10.9 |
DOWN |
10.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Forsett,Ju |
7.9 |
10.8 |
UP |
5.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Portis,Cl |
8.4 |
10.8 |
UP |
8.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jones,Fe |
7.0 |
10.7 |
UP |
8.6 |
UP |
|
|
Barber,Ma |
10.5 |
10.6 |
UP |
5.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Williams,Ri |
13.6 |
10.6 |
DOWN |
6.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bush,Re |
8.6 |
10.3 |
UP |
4.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jones,Th |
14.4 |
10.0 |
DOWN |
8.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jacobs,Br |
9.2 |
9.7 |
UP |
8.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jackson,Fr |
10.4 |
9.2 |
DOWN |
9.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Williams,Ca |
9.1 |
9.0 |
DOWN |
6.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brown,Do |
5.7 |
8.6 |
UP |
5.9 |
UP |
|
|
Maroney,La |
9.3 |
8.6 |
DOWN |
6.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bush,Mi |
5.8 |
8.2 |
UP |
9.5 |
UP |
|
|
Hightower,Ti |
9.4 |
8.0 |
DOWN |
7.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
McFadden,Da |
5.5 |
7.8 |
UP |
17.4 |
UP |
|
|
Hillis,Pe |
1.6 |
7.3 |
UP |
15.3 |
UP |
|
|
Slaton,St |
11.5 |
6.5 |
DOWN |
1.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Dixon,An |
0.0 |
5.7 |
UP |
3.1 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Dwyer,Jo |
0.0 |
5.7 |
UP |
0.9 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Gerhart,To |
0.0 |
5.7 |
UP |
3.9 |
UP |
N/A |
|
McGahee,Wi |
9.8 |
5.6 |
DOWN |
5.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Choice,Ta |
4.4 |
5.6 |
UP |
4.4 |
UP |
|
|
Smith,Ke |
11.2 |
5.5 |
DOWN |
4.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Davis,Ja |
1.0 |
5.5 |
UP |
5.3 |
UP |
|
|
Ringer,Ja |
2.5 |
5.5 |
UP |
2.5 |
UP |
|
|
Westbrook,Br |
7.3 |
5.4 |
DOWN |
6.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Faulk,Ke |
5.5 |
5.3 |
DOWN |
5.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jones,Ju |
8.1 |
5.0 |
DOWN |
2.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Buckhalter,Co |
6.7 |
4.9 |
DOWN |
4.5 |
DOWN |
|
A look back 2010 Wide Receiver Projections -
80 % Success
|
|
2009 |
2010 |
2010 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Johnson,An |
13.3 |
13.8 |
UP |
12.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Moss,Ra |
12.8 |
12.3 |
DOWN |
17.3 |
UP |
|
|
Austin,Mi |
12.4 |
12.2 |
DOWN |
10.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Wayne,Re |
11.6 |
11.9 |
UP |
10.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,Ca |
9.7 |
11.9 |
UP |
12.5 |
UP |
|
|
Fitzgerald,La |
11.7 |
11.6 |
DOWN |
9.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
White,Ro |
11.4 |
11.4 |
UP |
12.5 |
UP |
|
|
Marshall,Br |
11.7 |
11.1 |
DOWN |
8.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jackson,De |
12.7 |
10.9 |
DOWN |
11.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jennings,Gr |
8.5 |
10.7 |
UP |
12.4 |
UP |
|
|
Smith,St |
9.5 |
10.5 |
UP |
4.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Colston,Ma |
10.1 |
10.4 |
UP |
9.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Smith,St |
10.3 |
10.2 |
DOWN |
7.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Nicks,Ha |
10.5 |
10.0 |
DOWN |
13.2 |
UP |
|
|
Boldin,An |
8.9 |
9.7 |
UP |
7.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
OchoCinco,Ch |
10.1 |
9.7 |
DOWN |
7.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Harvin,Pe |
11.7 |
9.2 |
DOWN |
9.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Crabtree,Mi |
6.8 |
9.1 |
UP |
6.9 |
UP |
|
|
Owens,Te |
7.8 |
9.1 |
UP |
11.7 |
UP |
|
|
Bryant,De |
0.0 |
8.9 |
UP |
7.7 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Garcon,Pi |
7.3 |
8.6 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Wallace,Mi |
7.3 |
8.5 |
UP |
11.9 |
UP |
|
|
Meachem,Ro |
8.9 |
8.5 |
DOWN |
6.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Ward,Hi |
9.6 |
8.4 |
DOWN |
6.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Welker,We |
11.6 |
8.4 |
DOWN |
8.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bowe,Dw |
6.9 |
8.3 |
UP |
12.9 |
UP |
|
|
Driver,Do |
8.9 |
7.9 |
DOWN |
5.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Floyd,Ma |
5.3 |
7.9 |
UP |
9.0 |
UP |
|
|
Mason,De |
9.1 |
7.9 |
DOWN |
7.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Breaston,St |
6.7 |
7.9 |
UP |
6.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Maclin,Je |
7.7 |
7.8 |
UP |
10.0 |
UP |
|
|
Sims-Walker,Mi |
8.6 |
7.8 |
DOWN |
7.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Williams,Mi |
0.0 |
7.7 |
UP |
10.1 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Royal,Ed |
2.7 |
7.7 |
UP |
5.4 |
UP |
|
|
Berrian,Be |
5.4 |
7.6 |
UP |
1.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Holmes,Sa |
9.7 |
7.6 |
DOWN |
9.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Moss,Sa |
6.8 |
7.6 |
UP |
9.2 |
UP |
|
|
Britt,Ke |
5.9 |
7.4 |
UP |
12.0 |
UP |
|
|
Massaquoi,Mo |
7.3 |
7.4 |
UP |
4.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gaffney,Ja |
5.3 |
7.3 |
UP |
6.2 |
UP |
|
|
Jackson,Vi |
11.5 |
7.3 |
DOWN |
11.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Evans,Le |
6.4 |
7.2 |
UP |
6.8 |
UP |
|
|
Walter,Ke |
5.4 |
7.1 |
UP |
6.1 |
UP |
|
|
Knox,Jo |
5.0 |
7.1 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Aromashodu,De |
7.7 |
7.0 |
DOWN |
1.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Burleson,Na |
7.7 |
7.0 |
DOWN |
7.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Henderson,De |
5.9 |
7.0 |
UP |
3.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Edwards,Br |
18.4 |
7.0 |
DOWN |
8.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Cotchery,Je |
7.6 |
6.9 |
DOWN |
4.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
McCluster,De |
0.0 |
6.9 |
UP |
3.1 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Naanee,Le |
3.1 |
6.9 |
UP |
4.8 |
UP |
|
|
Heyward-Bey,Da |
1.8 |
6.9 |
UP |
3.4 |
UP |
|
|
Jones,Ja |
6.3 |
6.7 |
UP |
5.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Chambers,Ch |
11.4 |
6.7 |
DOWN |
2.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Shipley,Jo |
0.0 |
6.6 |
UP |
5.2 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Benn,Ar |
0.0 |
6.5 |
UP |
4.2 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Williams,Mi |
0.0 |
6.4 |
UP |
6.7 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Hester,De |
7.2 |
6.4 |
DOWN |
4.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Houshmandzadeh,TJ |
6.8 |
6.1 |
DOWN |
3.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Thomas,De |
0.0 |
6.1 |
UP |
4.0 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Camarillo,Gr |
3.4 |
6.0 |
UP |
2.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Williams,Ro |
6.8 |
5.7 |
DOWN |
5.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bess,Da |
5.6 |
5.7 |
UP |
7.0 |
UP |
|
|
Morgan,Jo |
5.1 |
5.7 |
UP |
5.2 |
UP |
|
|
Doucet,Ea |
3.0 |
5.6 |
UP |
3.2 |
UP |
|
|
Amendola,Da |
0.0 |
5.6 |
UP |
5.9 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Murphy,Lo |
4.1 |
5.4 |
UP |
5.5 |
UP |
|
|
Robinson,La |
7.7 |
5.3 |
DOWN |
3.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Butler,De |
1.4 |
5.3 |
UP |
4.9 |
UP |
|
|
|
A look back: 2010 Tight End Projections
- 67% Success
|
|
2009 |
2010 |
2010 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Gates,An |
10.3 |
10.0 |
DOWN |
12.6 |
UP |
|
|
Clark,Da |
10.8 |
9.5 |
DOWN |
8.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Finley,Je |
8.2 |
9.0 |
UP |
9.0 |
UP |
|
|
Davis,Ve |
10.9 |
8.6 |
DOWN |
8.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Witten,Ja |
7.2 |
8.2 |
UP |
9.6 |
UP |
|
|
Shiancoe,Vi |
7.7 |
8.0 |
UP |
4.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Cooley,Ch |
7.5 |
7.5 |
UP |
6.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gonzalez,To |
7.7 |
7.4 |
DOWN |
6.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Celek,Br |
9.1 |
7.3 |
DOWN |
5.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Winslow,Ke |
7.4 |
7.2 |
DOWN |
6.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Daniels,Ow |
10.3 |
7.2 |
DOWN |
4.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Miller,Za |
6.6 |
7.1 |
UP |
6.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Miller,He |
7.2 |
7.1 |
DOWN |
4.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Carlson,Jo |
6.2 |
6.8 |
UP |
2.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Olsen,Gr |
6.8 |
6.7 |
DOWN |
4.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Keller,Du |
4.1 |
6.2 |
UP |
6.6 |
UP |
|
|
Boss,Ke |
5.9 |
6.1 |
UP |
5.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gresham,Je |
0.0 |
5.7 |
UP |
4.7 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Davis,Fr |
5.8 |
5.0 |
DOWN |
3.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Heap,To |
6.0 |
4.5 |
DOWN |
6.9 |
UP |
|
|
Scaife,Bo |
3.8 |
4.2 |
UP |
4.3 |
UP |
|
|
Scheffler,To |
3.6 |
4.2 |
UP |
2.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Graham,Da |
2.3 |
4.2 |
UP |
1.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Lewis,Ma |
4.3 |
4.0 |
DOWN |
8.1 |
UP |
|
|
Dickson,Ed |
0.0 |
4.0 |
UP |
1.6 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Cook,Ja |
0.9 |
3.9 |
UP |
3.8 |
UP |
|
|
Gronkowski,Ro |
0.0 |
3.8 |
UP |
7.2 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Fells,Da |
11.3 |
3.4 |
DOWN |
3.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Thomas,Da |
5.3 |
3.1 |
DOWN |
2.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Pope,Le |
11.5 |
2.5 |
DOWN |
1.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
|
A look back: 2010 Place Kicker Projections
- 73% Success
|
|
2008 |
2009 |
2009 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Gostkowski,St. |
7.9 |
9.7 |
UP |
7.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Akers,Da. |
9.3 |
9.4 |
UP |
9.6 |
UP |
|
|
Kaeding,Na. |
9.1 |
9.4 |
UP |
7.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Longwell,Ry. |
8.5 |
9.1 |
UP |
5.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Crosby,Ma. |
8.1 |
8.8 |
UP |
7.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gould,Ro. |
6.8 |
8.8 |
UP |
7.5 |
UP |
|
|
Prater,Ma. |
7.9 |
8.8 |
UP |
6.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bironas,Ro. |
7.4 |
8.8 |
UP |
7.6 |
UP |
|
|
Succop,Ry. |
0.0 |
8.7 |
UP |
8.1 |
UP |
N/A |
|
Carpenter,Da. |
7.4 |
8.7 |
UP |
8.4 |
UP |
|
|
Tynes,La. |
8.1 |
8.6 |
UP |
6.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Folk,Ni. |
6.6 |
8.6 |
UP |
8.4 |
UP |
|
|
Vinatieri,Ad. |
2.5 |
8.2 |
UP |
8.6 |
UP |
|
|
Hartley,Ga. |
3.1 |
8.2 |
UP |
6.9 |
UP |
|
|
Nugent,Mi. |
4.5 |
8.1 |
UP |
7.4 |
UP |
|
|
Feely,Ja. |
8.2 |
8.1 |
DOWN |
7.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Reed,Je. |
7.9 |
8.0 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Rackers,Ne. |
5.7 |
7.9 |
UP |
8.4 |
UP |
|
|
Cundiff,Bi. |
6.2 |
7.8 |
UP |
7.8 |
UP |
|
|
Kasay,Jo. |
6.3 |
7.8 |
UP |
6.8 |
UP |
|
|
Janikowski,Se. |
5.8 |
7.7 |
UP |
9.9 |
UP |
|
|
Hanson,Ja. |
5.8 |
7.4 |
UP |
5.9 |
UP |
|
|
Nedney,Jo. |
5.3 |
7.4 |
UP |
3.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bryant,Ma. |
5.8 |
7.3 |
UP |
8.6 |
UP |
|
|
Mare,Ol. |
6.6 |
7.1 |
UP |
7.1 |
UP |
|
|
Lindell,Ri. |
6.9 |
6.8 |
DOWN |
5.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gano,Gr. |
6.6 |
35.1 |
UP |
8.1 |
UP |
|
|
Scobee,Jo. |
4.9 |
5.8 |
UP |
7.5 |
UP |
|
|
Barth,Co. |
5.9 |
5.5 |
DOWN |
7.1 |
UP |
|
|
Dawson,Ph. |
4.6 |
5.3 |
UP |
6.3 |
UP |
|
|
|
